Forum: International and Other Sports Forum - Discuss betting important International sports such as tennis and golf etc. with sharp handicappers from around the world.

Thread: Roland Garros WTA

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  1. #51  
    RX Member croaker's Avatar
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    Good start to the day, Kontaveit managed to win the match and Giorgi still battling after serving for the match twice and missing.

    Still waiting on Begu

    Anyway on to the next matches

    Sharapova vs Ka Pliskova

    I like Pliskova here but it will be close. Karolyna's line has come in from +138 to +108.

    Pass don't see much value at current line.

    Gavrilova vs Mertens

    Mertens -1.5 sets -108

    Looks like a mismatch. Gavrilova says she plays better when behind so I expect she will be playing better for most of the match.


    Serena vs Goerges

    Pass. Lines look about right so little value.

    Similar to the Sharapova match if Goerges gets to +150 which is unlikely I would have some sort of bet.

    Kerber vs Bertens

    Bertens had a good run at Madrid and is slight favorite

    I give Kerber a slight edge at +131. Just trying to work out how to play it.

    Will update later.
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  2. #52  
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    Last one for day/night

    Kerber vs Bertens

    Bertens good on clay but Kerber is as well.

    Pretty close with H2H.

    Both playing well.

    Have to pass at the lines, its priced as almost a flip, and no outcome would surprise me in this match. Most likely match will go to 3 sets.

    Giorgi couldn't quite get over the line to take the match. Lost 3 service games in a row to lose the match.

    The Begu +1.5 set line has moved out to -104. No-one giving her a chance. Everyone who lost on Pliskova probably doubling down on Garcia to win at home.
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  3. #53  
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    You might know this so asking here.

    You have access to or know of any sites that track handicap histories for ATP/WTA matches? I don't think I've ever seen that. Got to be somewhere on the net.

    Also, similar question, access or site that might show money lines and corresponding handicap relationships?



    For example, some lines/caps:

    Thiem -140 / -2.5
    Isner -262 / -3.5
    Zver -304 / -5.0
    Djok -383 / -6.0
    Delpo -395 / -6.0
    Zver -304 / -5.0


    Obviously for ATP the cap gets tweaked when an elite server is in the fold.
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  4. #54  
    RX Member croaker's Avatar
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    I think oddsportal will have it.

    And its finally Begu time...
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  5. #55  
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    Sadly after staying up to watch Begu shock the world against Garcia she lost.

    I only managed to see the first set and it wasn't pretty at least for Begu. Garcia played really well and I don't know that anyone would have beaten Garcia on the day.

    But Mugu 2-0, Kontaveit 2-0, Giorgi 1-2 and Mertens 2-0 all managed to win or get a set.

    Didn't see Serena's game but looks like she won comfortably from the boxscore. Serena now +800 to win the tourney so you would have been way better off backing her ML in each of her last 2 matches than taking a future bet.

    Anyway ended up going 4-1 for the day so a bit better than yesterday. So still hanging in there. Taking the dogs to win a set worked out more profitable so I will probably keep using it.

    Mertens and Mugu crushed their opponents, Giorgi had 2 chances to serve out the match but lost, and Kontaveit defeated Kvitova in a close match but never really looked like losing.

    Record now

    25-14

    +719 +11.6%

    PS

    I got some of the data from the point winning %ages at the start of a couple of the matches and will see how they compare with the estimates from my model. I'm not trying to use this data to predict outcomes but just to understand how the oddsmaker set their opening lines, so I will be doing some simple but interesting maths later today......

    PPS

    The average odds for the 25 winning bets is 1.64 [decimal odds] and with a win rate of 64% gives me an expected return from flat betting of 5.3% so the staking strategy of betting to win a set amount is superior at this stage.
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  6. #56  
    RX Member croaker's Avatar
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    My thoughts around game handicap betting is that while the players try to win every game their main goal is to win the match and don't necessarily work hard to cover the spread [same in NBA and NFL].

    Also who gets to serve first can affect the spread ie chances of a 6-3 or 6-4 set score.

    Books love spread bettors as the odds are closer to 50% which gives maximum volatility, so there more chance for bettors to bust out. I started to become profitable when I started playing alt lines and ML, rather than the standard 50/50 spreads.

    One guy here posted something that I found very useful it was essentially "pick the right side and then work out how to make money on it". For which I am very grateful.
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  7. #57  
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    Missed the start of the Buza game.

    There are still 3 more matches

    Next up

    Strycova vs Putintseva

    Putintseva +1.5 sets -136

    I think is a close match with slight edge for Putintseva, Strycova is the favorite so I think there is value on the Putintseva +1.5 line.

    The maths is consistent with my view as well so fingers crossed. Hopefully she gets off to a better start than she did against Wang.


    BOL
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  8. #58  
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    Coming up after the Nishikori yawnathon

    Wozniaki vs Kasatkina

    Wozniaki ML -121

    I really like Woz at these odds, shes dropped 11 games in her last 4 matches c/w Kasatkina sho was lucky Sakarri had a bad day in her last match.

    I actually think there is value in ML and -1.5 for Woz, as Kasatkina loses most of her matches 2-0, and I don't think she matches up bery well against Woz. But went with the ML as less variance.
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  9. #59  
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    Masterful first set from Sloane. That was a piece of art.
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  10. #60  
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    Yeah

    Kontaveit didn't show up today. She looked shell shocked. I was watching the Putintseva game and missed the start of the match.

    I think Serena will crush Sharapova tomorrow and can't see her dropping a set.
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  11. #61  
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    Putintseva won comfortably.

    The Wozniaki match has been paused for bad light in the 2nd set at 3-3.

    Woz was serving for the set at 5-3 but couldn't close it out and ended up losing the eventual tie break. She's 3-3 in the 2nd so there is still hope, but she will have to play better when they restart the match.

    Woz is +175 on b365 to win, which is around the same as odds for her to win 2-0 prematch.

    The match resumes after Haleps match which is first up tonight.
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  12. #62  
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    4 games plus the conclusion of the Wozniaki-Kontaveit match

    Kina will be serving first and if she holds I will probably take Woz ML hopefully around +200. Not for record.

    Kina is hitting around 80% of her 1st serves in the match so far, and if she continues to do so she will probably win. So need good odds on Woz.

    Halep-Mertens

    Mertens got 3 games off Halep last time they played, and Haleps line has dropped, I think the match will be a lot closer than the odds suggest and that Mertens +1.5 sets may have value. The other side is Halep -1.5 which looks attractive as well. I slightly favor Halep -1.5 sets. Hmmmmm pass.


    Kerber-Garcia

    I favor Kerber here, Garcia played lights out against Begu and if she plays like that again she should win.

    Kerbers line has come in I will take Kerber if the line goes out, hopefully the French will bet on their player closer to match time and give me some juicy odds.

    Will update prior to the start.

    Go Woz.
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  13. #63  
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    Wrong about the Halep match.

    It match was close for 3 games. Halep won the 3rd game which lasted 18pts. Mertens only got 2 more games for the rest of the match.

    Mertens is a better player than that but she just couldn't points.

    I ended up putting a small bet on Woz at +275 after she went down 3-4, and she promptly got broken. At least it will be over quickly.

    Kerber now clear ML favorite
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  14. #64  
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    Kerber ended up winning pretty comfortably against Garcia.

    Serena and Mugu matches were non events.


    So after Woz losing and Putintseva winning record is now:

    26-15

    +698 +10.8%
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  15. #65  
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    A couple of thoughts on the matches.

    Garcia couldn't put in another peak performance and reverted to the mean. Result went the way of the numbers. Oddsmakers, bettors and my model were all on the right side with this one. I didn't bet it as I thought there was a good chance that Garcia would continue to play at high level at home. Early line was good.

    Mertens, looked like she lost confidence after losing the long [18 pt] 3rd game. I didn't have her winning, but was surprised at the margin of victory.

    My numbers indicated this match would closer than the odds indicate but in favor of Halep. Oddsmakers lines were heavily favoring Halep and Halep ended up winning easily. Early line was better for Halep.

    Kasatkina played better than average and Wozniaki just a little worse. I had Woz winning this comfortably similar to the oddsmakers and thought about taking the 2-0 line. Bettors agreed as the Woz line came in from the open. Early line better for Woz.

    The Giorgi and Stephens match was evenly matched and very close, and both grils played well. My numbers had a tiny edge for Giorgi and the oddsmakers had Stephens winning comfortably. The match could have easily gone either way. B365 implied win% for Stephens to win the match was 62% at close, I had it at almost 50/50. Bettors agreed with oddsmakers and the Giorgi line went out. Late line better for Giorgi.


    A few thoughts about my results, trying to be objective, and to learn for the future.

    Giorgi +1.5 was good, ML would have been value as well. Ending up with Giorgi serving for the match twice at the prematch odds of +180 I would be happy to take anytime.

    Woz was bet was fine but just have to wear the loss.

    Halep -1.5 would have been OK particularly with the early line, I got cold feet after the line moved in

    Kerber over Garcia ML would have been OK particularly at + odds, I waited hoping for the line to move out but it kept coming in. Kerber at + odds was a much better bet than Woz as favorite but both OK. But I was happier to follow the crowd at poor odds than I was to take the better EV bet..

    Puntiseva +1.5 was good, Barb put in a clunker which helped but I think Putintseva was good for a set even if Barb had played better.

    Sakarri and Peng +1.5 would have been better than ML and still had good odds, it would have avoided the close but no cigar outcome.

    Begu is costing me money atm, maybe she is suffering form the Bortles effect, ie a stat mosnter but all against prevent defense in junk time after game is decided. Haven't seen her put in even an average performance against a top player for a while.

    Wang match 4-0 up in 2nd set I am happy to take, she will be gutted. If she had kept her foot down she would most likely have ended up with a QF against Keys. I have to suck this one in. I saw in one of the qualifying matches one of the girls was cruising and then she suddenly smiled when she lost a point, she only won 2 games after that. My take is she thought I'm going to be playing in the main draw and lost focus. It only takes a small reduction in performance to have a big impact on the outcome.

    I've spent a bit of time on the maths now, its quite challenging. I can't find any way of calculating the match win% odds directly from the data, but I am close to solving the set % odds, and from those I should be able to produce ML odds.

    At this stage I can only calculate whether the match is a flip, comfortable win, or a mismatch which you can pretty much tell without any maths.
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  16. #66  
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    Quick question for anyone who has any ideas.

    I've done a comparison between implied odds for winning 1st set and the -1.5 sets ie winning the 1st set and the 2nd set, using pinny lines and have taken the various vig levels into account.

    For Halep v Kerber

    Halep has implied odds of 63.4% to win 1st set and 45.4% to won 2-0.

    This means that the implied odds to win the 2nd set [conditional upon winning the first] increase to 71.6%.

    My question is

    Is it reasonable to assume that a player has increased chances of winning the 2nd set after winning the first? And if so by how much?

    I trying to get a handle on whether there is any value betting 1st set over -1.5 sets.

    If there isn't it will provide information on how the books adjust their probabilities over the short term, ie after 1 set.

    I'll will try to track the live 2nd set odds for matches after the first set and see how they compare with the implied odds for 2nd set based on the closing odds for -1.5 sets.
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  17. #67  
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    Not specifically for WTA but there is an interesting match tonight in ATP between Thiem and Zverev.

    Thiem beat Nadal recently but then lost to Fognini.

    Thiem is favorite with implied odds of 61% to win.

    The narrative is Thiem is better on clay, Thiem beat Nadal, Zverev is struggling.

    I have looked at the numbers and for 2018 these indicate that Zverev is better on clay than Thiem and the Zverev has a small but significant edge over Thiem on clay atm.

    The Thiem line has come in from the open.

    Based on the numbers [performance on clay for 2018] I think Zverev should be comfortable favorite almost reverse of current lines.

    not for record for FYI I'm going to bet Thiem ML and add if he does down a set if I am still awake...

    NB A lot of stuff can still happen in a match but there seems to be value with Zverev in this spot.
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  18. #68  
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    Tonights QF matches


    Putintseva vs Keys

    Taking Keys -1.5 sets -120

    I think its a mismatch and should be a reasonably easy win for Keys.


    Stephens vs Kasatkina

    Pass

    Flip, I see this as very close. If Stephens was a bigger dog I would take her +1.5 sets but not at -250.


    BOL
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  19. #69  
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    Keys got the -1.5.

    It wasn't a cake walk, Putintseva played pretty good.

    Record now

    27-15

    +798 ROI +12.2%

    PS

    Thiem Zverev match which is still in progress. I thought it was a soft line as the odds were so far off other matches with similar analytics, however after watching Zverev regularly grab his hamstring from game 2, I'm pretty sure there was some knowledge that he was going into the match carrying an injury or not 100% fit. So sadly Zverev bettors burnt their money before the match had even started. Thiem is just batting the ball a couple of times and winning the points.
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  20. #70  
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    croaker...…….nice call with Keys...……..indy
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  21. #71  
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    Last nights matches

    I skipped through the replay of the Kasatkina Stephens match and it looked like one way traffic.

    The early line opened up as almost 50/50, [which makes me feel better about the time I put into my capping model], Stephens initially moved out but got steam as the match got closer to end up closing a clear favorite.

    For the Zverev match the Pinny early line opened at +100 which is consistent with the stats, but quickly jumped out to +150 which is consistent with some people having knowledge about an injury. Note to self "Be careful of odds that look too good to be true.., if you don't understand the reason for a big gap between expected and actual odds be careful ". This match was a good example of the lines providing info.

    The line move was a quick jump at open rather than late steam.

    Everyone who bet on Thiem, at the books that void bets in case of retirement, will be eternally grateful that Zverev chose to risk aggravating his hammy further and complete the match. He was grabbing his hammy from game 2 indicating that he was carrying the injury in, and it didn't occur after the match started. He said when questioned afterwards that the injury occurred during the match and first noticed it in game 4, and he didn't pull out in respect to his opponent, and that he thought it might get better as the match progressed. IMO the line movement is more reliable than Zverev's comments about the timing off the injury.

    “I thought about it. I definitely thought about it, but, you know, I didn't want to pull out for the first time of my career in a Grand Slam quarterfinal,” Zverev continued.


    “So, you know, I knew I'm not going to win the match. There was no way for me. I mean, I could barely move. I couldn't serve. I couldn't really do anything.

    “But I still wanted to finish the match and, you know, kind of give the credit to Dominic. He deserves to be in the semi-finals.”

    The Frog translator reads it as "I knew I was carrying an injury going in, had no chance to win, and while risking aggravating the injury by completing the match, I just want to you to know that I wish to avoid any potential liability relating to sports betting patterns"

    Big contrast to Djoko's reaction after to losing to Cecc......

    For the Djoko match the opening and closing lines stayed around the same, Djoko just had a clunker.

    I'm not complaining, its just another thing to take into account. It shows why NFL and NBA have mandatory injury reporting.

    The remaining 2 QF's tonight


    Halep vs Kerber

    I have comfortable win for Halep. The Halep line has moved in already since opening from -175 to -222, so early bettors think Halep is better than the stats indicate. This seems to be a reliable betting pattern for Halep matches.

    No bet as yet. But will look for value in Halep lines or maybe Kerber +1.5 sets currently -115.


    Mugu vs Sharapova

    I get a comfortable win for Mugu.

    Lines haven't moved since open so no-one jumping on a side early.

    What I am going to do for this match is place a bet to win $50 at the current line of -114 and add another bet to win $50 at the line closer to closing. I'll post the odds after I place and then calculate the average line for the bet and use that for the record.


    BOL
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  22. #72  
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    Added the extra on Mugu at -126. So the total is $120 to win $100.

    The Mugu line has come in a little.

    Haleps line has stayed the same.

    BOL
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  23. #73  
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    Happily they played the girls games first so I can get some sleep. I'm still struggling with my capping model, I can replicate most of the odds to win first set, but not sure if I am missing something or over complicating it.... Sleep will help..

    Mugu won 2-0.

    Halep and Kerber looks like it will be close. I'll watch the replay when I wake up.

    Record now

    28-15

    +898 +13.4%
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  24. #74  
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    I freaking LOVE Auckland! Came there in 2013 for a 3 week vacation. Flew from Chicago --> Auckland --> Brisbane --> Sydney --> Melbourne.

    I have a ton of family in Melbourne, that was the main purpose of the visit. Had a really good time when i was in Auckland for 3 nights/4 days. Did the Sky Tower tour, volcano tours, hit up some nice bars & clubs. Everyone did tell me about the South Island and what i was missing out on. Next time, for sure.

    BTW, great call on Muzu!
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  25. #75  
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    No Men's action today?
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