Forum: International and Other Sports Forum - Discuss betting important International sports such as tennis and golf etc. with sharp handicappers from around the world.

Thread: Roland Garros WTA

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  1. #76  
    RX Member croaker's Avatar
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    Thanks Varkey

    I'm really enjoying watching the tennis, its a pity it has been starting so late NZ time and I usually go to sleep just when it starts to get interesting.

    I think the mens lines are pretty tight and don't feel confident trying to cap the spreads atm, especially over 5 sets.

    Tonight's girls matches

    Halep vs Mugu

    I just took Halep ML at +105

    Halep opened -110 and then moved out to +112 before coming back in a little.

    I see Halep as comfortable winner, the QF's went as expected based on my maths so unless there is something unknown I think the line is value.

    Hopefully the odds are due to recency bias....


    Keys vs Stephens

    I see this as close to 50/50 with Sloane have a small edge, The oddsmakers and early bettors see it differently Keys opened +152 immediately dropped down to +134 before steadily moving out to +160.

    Not sure how to bet this yet.

    BOL
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  2. #77  
    RX Member croaker's Avatar
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    PS

    I have hand a good run on the Japanese doubles pair Hozumi and Ninomiya, they've now won 3 in a row at good odds. They play very nicely, always look happy and cheerful [although they did look serious at match point vs Mladenovic and Babos], and keep their composure under pressure. I think they have a good shot of beating Wang and Chan to make the final. They are only +138 atm but good be value if they go down a break or a set. For entertainment purposes only.
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  3. #78  
    RX Member croaker's Avatar
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    Halep line moved out a little then back in closer to the start of match.

    Keys line has moved out as well, seems like only a few days ago that Giorgi served twice for the match only to come up short each time.

    Slaone holds a 2-0 advantage H2H and she played well in her last game, whereas Madison struggled against the plucky Kazak girl [who IMO is better than advertised].

    With Halep I have her winning this 60% of time and getting coin toss odds.

    With Slaone and Keys my numbers have them at almost exactly 50% odds. So I guess Keys at +168 is good value in a flip.

    However, there is a big gap between the opening odds and my numbers, and the gap has widened.

    So I can't pull the trigger on Keys so sadly pass.....

    Joe Maddon says when in doubt err on the side of aggression, so I am fading him and erring on the side of caution....

    If you want to watch good doubles match, no grunting, tantrums, or other strategic behaviour the Hozumi-Ninomiya match tomorrow would be worth a look.
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  4. #79  
    RX Local varkeyboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by croaker View Post
    PS

    I have hand a good run on the Japanese doubles pair Hozumi and Ninomiya, they've now won 3 in a row at good odds. They play very nicely, always look happy and cheerful [although they did look serious at match point vs Mladenovic and Babos], and keep their composure under pressure. I think they have a good shot of beating Wang and Chan to make the final. They are only +138 atm but good be value if they go down a break or a set. For entertainment purposes only.
    +140 now.....
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  5. #80  
    RX Local varkeyboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by croaker View Post
    Thanks Varkey

    I'm really enjoying watching the tennis, its a pity it has been starting so late NZ time and I usually go to sleep just when it starts to get interesting.

    I think the mens lines are pretty tight and don't feel confident trying to cap the spreads atm, especially over 5 sets.

    Tonight's girls matches

    Halep vs Mugu

    I just took Halep ML at +105

    Halep opened -110 and then moved out to +112 before coming back in a little.

    I see Halep as comfortable winner, the QF's went as expected based on my maths so unless there is something unknown I think the line is value.

    Hopefully the odds are due to recency bias....


    Keys vs Stephens

    I see this as close to 50/50 with Sloane have a small edge, The oddsmakers and early bettors see it differently Keys opened +152 immediately dropped down to +134 before steadily moving out to +160.

    Not sure how to bet this yet.

    BOL
    You called these matches perfectly!

    I slammed HALEP, but didn't get a chance to post it in time unfortunately. Glad she's moving on. She deserves a GS Title the most.
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  6. #81  
    RX Member croaker's Avatar
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    Glad you got Halep, I've definitely had luck on my side the last couple of days.

    I dodged a bullet by not taking Keys.

    Sadly there is only 1 match left, I have the match pretty easy for Halep. And the odds markets and early bettors agree.

    Implied odds are 67% in favor of Halep. My model show's 65% which is the same as the opening lines. So thinking about how to play it.

    Record now

    29-15

    +998 +14.7% ROI

    I started to do better when I started to take lower variance alt plays ie sets [apart from the Begu match]. I think unless you play a huge number of matches taking lower variance bets with similar EV is less risky.
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  7. #82  
    RX Local varkeyboy's Avatar
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    Nothing today?
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  8. #83  
    RX Member croaker's Avatar
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    Not today

    I've been busy working on my model.

    I have made a lot of progress since my initial attempt.

    Its a bit harder to do tennis than NFL and NBA as they use a cumulative score.

    Tennis has points, games, sets and eventually you come end up with a match.

    It gets tougher once you start to think about the second set as the odds are affected by what happens in the first set.

    I still need to think get some confidence around one of the parameters, and think about how to adjust for the second set odds, but my brain has had enough numbers for one day.

    I'm just going to watch the ninomiya hozumi match and get some sleep.

    Hopefully have some info tomorrow.

    BOL
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  9. #84  
    RX Local varkeyboy's Avatar
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    Hozumi + Ninomiya are $$$$$$ at +140!!! Thanks for the tip.
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  10. #85  
    RX Member croaker's Avatar
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    Yes they won comfortably.

    They looked a bit more serious today, but Ninomiya seemed to keep their spirits up when things got tough.
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  11. #86  
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    Final match tonight, looks likes odds are about right so not much value.

    IMO best value is Halep 1st set, as you have the option of being able to bet on Halep 2nd set at better odds if she loses the 1st.

    If Halep loses the first set her 2nd set line should be around -110, with ML likely to be around +193 based on the current prematch lines.

    Something I remember from my Uni days is that having options [not necessarily the financial derivative's] is valuable, even if it is difficult to quantify the value of the option.

    So for my last bet for Paris it will be a tennis derivative bet, for Halep to win a 1 set, but rather than take the -550 for +1.5 sets, I will try the following:

    Halep 1st set with the intention of betting enough to win around $90 on her winning the 2nd set if she loses the first set.

    My maths and the odds makers give Halep a 65% chance of winning the first set.

    My estimated payoff table is:

    Halep wins first set +$50

    Halep loses first set and loses second -$200

    Halep loses first set and wins 2nd set +40

    So I am essentially risking up to $200 to win either $40 or $50.

    So for clarity

    Adding Halep 1st set to win $50 at -194 ie bet $97.

    Will update after end of first set the amount and odds for 2nd set bet if required.

    I'm not sure if this approach is worthwhile, the maths for it has been doing my head in, but at least trying it may be valuable.

    BOL
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  12. #87  
    RX Member croaker's Avatar
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    Well that didn't go as planned.

    Halep played poorly in the first and lost it.

    The odds for the second set were only -137 and while I was trying to work the implied odds and out how much to bet they started the 2nd set.

    Halep proceeded to get broken in the first game and I managed to get a bet on at +153 for the 2nd set. So fingers crossed.

    Won't count for record as I missed placing the bet prior to the start of the set....
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  13. #88  
    RX Member croaker's Avatar
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    Halep won the match. After clunking the 1st set, she played pretty good in the 2nd half of the 2nd set and for all of the 3rd set.

    Practically, it was tougher to get the live bet on than I thought, I didn't think the live 2nd set odds were high enough, based on the implied odds from the prematch lines, so I quickly tried to check how the oddsmakers had adjusted the probabilities for the match and to take into account that Halep was to serve first. It was also around 2am here so I wasn't thinking that fast.

    But it took me too long and the 2nd set had started. Also I had no chance of getting the bet on and posting here before the 2nd set started.

    I have few ideas about how to improve this if I decide to try it again.

    The odds for Halep to win the 2nd set dropped were 55%, lower than the 65% to win 1st, but higher than the 51% from the prematch implied odds.

    If had got the bet on it would have been at -136 and betting that to win $100 I would have ended up betting 233 and won $50, still better than the prematch line for Halep +1.5 sets, so I think there may be value in this approach.

    So sadly I have to end the tourney on a loss of $97.

    So record at end of RG.

    29-16

    +901 +13.1% ROI

    Still a very low sample size but a little promising.


    FYI for this tourney I ended up 20-11 +781 +17.4%

    PS

    Girls doubles tonight, I'll watch the Ninomiya-Hozumi match, and use it to adjust my model for live betting, and then probably have a crack at Nottingham. Hopefully it will give me a feel for how going from clay to grass affects the matches prior to London. My thoughts are that the change in surface won't affect the girls as much as it affects the men.
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