How to bet the 102nd running of the Indianapolis 500
PJ Walsh
ESPN INSIDER
IndyCar returns to Indianapolis Motor Speedway on May 27 for the 102nd running of The Greatest Spectacle in Racing.
One big storyline this weekend will be the new aero package. The UAK18 aero kit produces less downforce than what has been run in recent years at Indianapolis, which means cars aren't creating the same size "hole" in the air. As a result, there will be less of an aerodynamic tow, or "draft," during Sunday's Indy 500, which should minimize the slingshot passes we've grown to know and love since 2012.
IndyCar drivers and teams hit the track last Tuesday and practiced all week with the new aero package. As bettors, this data is invaluable. Historical results are all but obsolete, considering the aero updates made to the 2018 race car. Luckily, IndyCar is very generous in releasing this practice data, allowing us to analyze and determine which drivers are undervalued by the current Indy 500 betting market.
After poring through the practice data and monitoring what drivers are saying about their race cars, I've pinpointed four futures bets offering value for Sunday's race. Let's take a look at some of the best bets for the 2018 Indianapolis 500.
Note: All odds via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of May 25.
Best bets
Marco Andretti (15-1)
Most drivers, even those who are fast on the practice charts, are consistently complaining that their cars aren't driving well in traffic. This is forcing most drivers to lift off the throttle in the corners, making it difficult for those back in the pack to catch and pass the leaders. However, there is one driver who has been pleased with his car's handling in traffic throughout the month of May: Marco Andretti.
Andretti's car never quite had the no-tow speed he needed to make a run at a top-five starting position in qualifying, but the car has been really fast in race trim. I've compiled data from each of the Indy 500 practice sessions to rank each driver's speed in race trim. Andretti unloaded with a rocket early last week and never looked back, earning the No. 1 spot in my rankings. The combination of a fast race car on the speed charts and the driver revealing he's happy with the car makes Andretti my favorite Indy 500 bet.
Helio Castroneves (12-1)
After Andretti, there's a big group of drivers in the next tier of my ratings. For a handful of reasons, I've settled on Castroneves.
Castroneves is a three-time winner of the Indy 500. In full disclosure, I've found experience to be overrated and haven't considered it much when placing bets. However, with a new aero package and uncertainty about what to expect once all 33 cars are on the racetrack, I like drivers who have experienced different kinds of racing at the Brickyard. Castroneves has seen and done it all at Indianapolis, which will be a big advantage over the younger drivers in the field.
On top of his experience, Castroneves has a very fast race car. He ranks third in my ratings and has a solid, top-10 starting spot. Give me Castroneves at 12-1, forming a formidable one-two punch with Andretti.
Long shots
Matheus Leist (40-1)
As a rookie, Leist has shown plenty of speed since getting to Indianapolis, highlighted by an 11th-place run in qualifying. I know I just waxed poetic about Castroneves' experience, but Leist's lack thereof is priced into the current number.
He drives for AJ Foyt Racing, and with teammate Tony Kanaan listed among the favorites, his equipment is certainly good enough to run up front. The rookie has been plenty fast, as well, clocking in 10th overall in my speed ratings and making him a very interesting flier bet.
Do not settle on 40-1 before placing your wager. Shop for the best price on this long shot.
Spencer Pigot (50-1)
Pigot checks a lot of the same boxes as Leist. He has very fast teammates at Ed Carpenter Racing, with Ed Carpenter on the pole and Danica Patrick starting seventh in her final race. Pigot also ranks 13th in my Indy 500 ratings. At just 24 years old, he has two Indy 500 starts under his belt, so he has a notebook on what to expect when getting around Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
PJ Walsh
ESPN INSIDER
IndyCar returns to Indianapolis Motor Speedway on May 27 for the 102nd running of The Greatest Spectacle in Racing.
One big storyline this weekend will be the new aero package. The UAK18 aero kit produces less downforce than what has been run in recent years at Indianapolis, which means cars aren't creating the same size "hole" in the air. As a result, there will be less of an aerodynamic tow, or "draft," during Sunday's Indy 500, which should minimize the slingshot passes we've grown to know and love since 2012.
IndyCar drivers and teams hit the track last Tuesday and practiced all week with the new aero package. As bettors, this data is invaluable. Historical results are all but obsolete, considering the aero updates made to the 2018 race car. Luckily, IndyCar is very generous in releasing this practice data, allowing us to analyze and determine which drivers are undervalued by the current Indy 500 betting market.
After poring through the practice data and monitoring what drivers are saying about their race cars, I've pinpointed four futures bets offering value for Sunday's race. Let's take a look at some of the best bets for the 2018 Indianapolis 500.
Note: All odds via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of May 25.
Best bets
Marco Andretti (15-1)
Most drivers, even those who are fast on the practice charts, are consistently complaining that their cars aren't driving well in traffic. This is forcing most drivers to lift off the throttle in the corners, making it difficult for those back in the pack to catch and pass the leaders. However, there is one driver who has been pleased with his car's handling in traffic throughout the month of May: Marco Andretti.
Andretti's car never quite had the no-tow speed he needed to make a run at a top-five starting position in qualifying, but the car has been really fast in race trim. I've compiled data from each of the Indy 500 practice sessions to rank each driver's speed in race trim. Andretti unloaded with a rocket early last week and never looked back, earning the No. 1 spot in my rankings. The combination of a fast race car on the speed charts and the driver revealing he's happy with the car makes Andretti my favorite Indy 500 bet.
Helio Castroneves (12-1)
After Andretti, there's a big group of drivers in the next tier of my ratings. For a handful of reasons, I've settled on Castroneves.
Castroneves is a three-time winner of the Indy 500. In full disclosure, I've found experience to be overrated and haven't considered it much when placing bets. However, with a new aero package and uncertainty about what to expect once all 33 cars are on the racetrack, I like drivers who have experienced different kinds of racing at the Brickyard. Castroneves has seen and done it all at Indianapolis, which will be a big advantage over the younger drivers in the field.
On top of his experience, Castroneves has a very fast race car. He ranks third in my ratings and has a solid, top-10 starting spot. Give me Castroneves at 12-1, forming a formidable one-two punch with Andretti.
Long shots
Matheus Leist (40-1)
As a rookie, Leist has shown plenty of speed since getting to Indianapolis, highlighted by an 11th-place run in qualifying. I know I just waxed poetic about Castroneves' experience, but Leist's lack thereof is priced into the current number.
He drives for AJ Foyt Racing, and with teammate Tony Kanaan listed among the favorites, his equipment is certainly good enough to run up front. The rookie has been plenty fast, as well, clocking in 10th overall in my speed ratings and making him a very interesting flier bet.
Do not settle on 40-1 before placing your wager. Shop for the best price on this long shot.
Spencer Pigot (50-1)
Pigot checks a lot of the same boxes as Leist. He has very fast teammates at Ed Carpenter Racing, with Ed Carpenter on the pole and Danica Patrick starting seventh in her final race. Pigot also ranks 13th in my Indy 500 ratings. At just 24 years old, he has two Indy 500 starts under his belt, so he has a notebook on what to expect when getting around Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
