Why the Mets on Sunday at +115...The Mets look to even the series on Sunday after a 17-6 Loss on Saturday. Despite the Mets 3-4 record over their last seven, the bats are still playing above-average as they have posted a .251 BA/.312 OBP during this seven game stretch, compared to their .239 season BA. With an 8-8 record in day games to go with a .242 BA/.321 OBP, this is a great spot for Mets backers. Zack Wheeler takes the ball for NY who is coming off of a quality home start against the Marlins where he allowed 1 run through 6 IP on 9 Ks and 0 BBs. Wheeler has experienced a gradual uptick in velocity with all of his pitches with a FB jump from 94.7 mph two starts ago to 96.1 mph in his most recent start (SA 94.7 mph). With a SL usage rate of 20% in his last start, Wheeler also saw his SLv increase from 89.8 mph to 91.5 mph (SA 89.9 mph). With a combined 45 ABs from the Brewers against Wheeler, we will back him in this afternoon start with a BOB Score of 196. The Brewers will entrust Jhoulys Chacin to seal them the series win. Chacin has posted quality numbers of late against the DBacks and Rockies, but his saber numbers show that a letdown could be looming. Chacin posted a 33.3% LD% in his most recent home start against the DBacks (SA 21%). Looking into Chacin's last three starts, his FBv and SLv have taken a dip in each start, pitches that he throws at a 53% and 38% rate respectively. Taking a look at the larger sample size of day games pitched from Chacin in 2017, he posted a 4.38 era over 49 IP where he allowed 49 hits on 7 HRs. This Mets lineup has a combined 114 ABs off of Chacin to match a .307 BA/.382 OBP and 4 HRs coming from four different players. With 63% of the money coming in on the Brewers but a line drop from -163 to -124, we will fade the public in this one.
Play on the Mets at +115
Play on the Mets at +115
