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Thread: Cnotes 2018 Canadian Football League Picks - News - Trends !

  1. #401  
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    GAME RECAP


    LION TAMERS: ‘CATS CLAW BC IN DOMINANT EASTERN SEMI SHOWING



    HAMILTON – Jeremiah Masoli proved Sunday why he is the East Division nominee for Most Outstanding Player, dominating time of possession and putting 28 first half points on the board.


    Masoli passed for 259 yards and three touchdowns yards and newcomer Bralon Addison hauled 124 of those yards as the Hamilton Tiger-Cats mauled the BC Lions 48-8 at Tim Hortons Field Sunday afternoon in the Eastern Semi-Final.


    The Tiger-Cats will now travel to Ottawa to take on the REDBLACKS in the Eastern Final next weekend.


    On top of a stellar outing from Masoli, the Tiger-Cats won the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and were gifted a two-touchdown performance by Luke Tasker.


    For a pair of teams that only played each other twice, there was no shortage of bad blood between these two teams. The Lions stormed back in the first meeting for an overtime win and the Ticats owned the battle the following week in a game that wasn’t short on fireworks.


    One of the primary differences in the Eastern Semi versus the two previous encounters was the BC quarterback, Travis Lulay, whose play in the final third of the regular season helped propel the Lions to a playoff berth.


    Before Lulay could see the field, it was the MOP candidate under centre on the other side that put the first points on the board. Masoli got the Ticats off and running with a pair of big completions to SB Bralon Addison and a 21-yard screen pass to RB Alex Green to set the Ticats up on the Lions goal line. In one of the more bizarre sneaks one will see, short yardage QB Dane Evans snuck right, fumbled the ball but it was promptly recovered by offensive lineman Kelvin Palmer for the score and an early 7-0 Hamilton lead.


    When Lulay did take the field for the Leos, his first play from scrimmage gave the Ticats another chance to score. Lulay went play action and when he dropped back to pass, put the ball on the carpet. It was recovered by DE Adrian Tracy on the BC 42-yard line.


    Five plays later, the Ticats were in the endzone again after Masoli and Addison connected for 27 yards and then looked off the safety and found Tasker on a post for a 14-yard major.


    The Lions responded with a solid drive to get some traction, but a 41-yard Ty Long field goal went wide right.


    Already dominating time of possession, the TIcats made BC pay for the miss, generating a 4:56 drive that featured a 50-yard strike from Masoli to Addison before backup RB Sean Thomas-Erlington who made a nine-yard TD reception off his back shoulder.


    Two possessions later, the ‘Cats flexed their muscles again when a 17-yard run by Green set up Luke Taskers second major of the game when he hauled in a 25-yard pass ahead of the goal line and navigated his way to pay dirt. The major extended the lead to 28-0 with just over four minutes left and was set up by a third-and-inches stop by the Ticats when LB Larry Dean stuffed QB Cody Fajardo on the gamble at the BC 42 yard line.


    Masoli entered halftime with a four-touchdown lead, a completion percentage of 81.3 and a receiver, Addison, with 124 yards receiving. The first half was dominated so heavily by the Tiger-Cats that the Lions didn’t get their first stop until the 7:37 mark of the second quarter.


    When the third quarter began, the dominant Ticats offence cooled but began to play the field position game – the Lions started their first three possessions of the half inside their own 10-yard line.


    With just over five minutes remaining in the third frame, Lulay tried to work his way out of a jam, looking for WR DeVier Posey on a five-yard out. Posey came out of his break and DB Frankie Williams jumped the route, picked off the pass clean and took it 39 yards for the pick-six.


    That ended Lulay’s day, who was replaced by Jonathon Jennings for the remainder of the game, stuck 37-0. Lulay finished 8 of 17 for 103 yards, one interception, one fumble and no touchdowns.


    Jennings willed the Lions into the redzone for the first time and looked poised to break the shutout. The Loins lined up on the Hamilton one-yard line on first down and went for a wildcat formation but the snap was fumbled by RB Tyrell Sutton and scooped up by veteran LB Simoni Lawrence who took it 92 yards down to the BC goal line. Backup Dane Evans would punch it in from there to extend the lead to 44-0.


    The Lions would finally break the goose egg when Jennings found WR Shaq Johnson for a 30-yard major. They would add a two-point conversion.


    Despite the late score, it was a blip on what was otherwise a phenomenal outing by the Hamiltoin defence which forced five turnovers and controlled the line of scrimmage all day long.


    Before the day was done, the Ticats put Evans in the game to close things out. He got in on the party by completing a pass to Mike Jones for a gain of 37 yards before the three minute warning to put another field goal on the board.


    The ‘Cats will now begin prep on the Eastern Final in Ottawa while the Lions head back to Vancouver where they will clean their lockers out on Monday. Sunday’s loss is the largest in BC Lions playoff history.




    *****************************




    WESTERN SEMI-FINAL


    HARRIS, WOLITARSKY LEAD BOMBERS PAST RIDERS IN WESTERN SEMI



    REGINA — Drew Wolitarsky and Andrew Harris each scored a touchdown and Kevin Fogg had a key interception, leading the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to a 23-18 win over the Saskatchewan Roughriders in the Western Semi-Final on Sunday in Regina.


    The Bombers got the best of their heated rival in front of a hostile crowd at new Mosaic Stadium, scoring 13 unanswered points in the second frame and never relinquishing the lead, putting the game out of reach with a fourth-quarter touchdown by Harris.


    Bombers pivot Matt Nichols threw for 169 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in the win, while the sophomore Wolitarsky had a team-high five catches for 68 yards to lead the Bombers to victory.


    Mississauga, Ont. native and Riders pivot Brandon Bridge became the first Canadian quarterback to start a playoff game since Gerry Dittilio, finishing 12-of-22 for 100 yards and an interception in defeat, however he exited the game with :08 remaining after being hit by Jackson Jeffcoat.


    The Riders’ regular starter Zach Collaros was scratched after taking limited practice reps throughout the week.


    Fogg had the game’s lone turnover, an interception in the second quarter that flipped the field and broke a first-half stalemate in the Bombers’ favour.


    After failing to find much of a lane in the first half with just 27 yards, Harris finished with 153 yards on 19 carries in a dominant second-half performance.


    The Bombers will travel to Calgary to take on the Stampeders in the Western Final on Nov. 18.


    With a raucous crowd at their back in the first game at the new stadium, the Riders came out with momentum. Bridge completed his first pass to Naaman Roosevelt for a first down, then got the edge on a second down scramble and took off for a 32-yard run into Bomber territory. Lauther’s 32-yard field goal put the Riders in front 3-0 on a successful opening drive.


    After a quick two-and-out by the Riders’ defence, including a sack by a blitzing Mike Edem on second down, a pass interference penalty on Chris Randle set up Lauther’s second field goal of the game, a short 16-yard chip shot to make it 6-0 midway through the opening quarter.


    The Bombers needed to pick up the pace offensively and did on their second drive of the game, starting with a critical second-down hookup between Nichols and Dressler to move the sticks. Completions to Darvin Adams and Wolitarsky moved the offence into field goal range, setting up the Bombers’ first points with a 37-yard field goal by Justin Medlock.


    Two of the CFL’s stingiest defences began to settle in after that, as a field position battle ensued well into the second quarter.


    Medlock’s second field goal of the game, this one from 36, knotted the game at six points apiece with 8:40 remaining in the opening half.


    After digging out of a small hole, the Bombers had the momentum and would continue to build. A promising drive by Bridge and the Riders ended suddenly deep in Winnipeg territory when Bridge’s errant pass was picked off by Kevin Fogg and returned to the Saskatchewan 42, marking the game’s first turnover and biggest sudden swing.


    A couple of plays later the Bombers finished the drive as Wolitarsky got by Edem while Nichols made no mistake, connecting for a 20-yard touchdown to give the Bombers their first lead of the game, 13-6.


    The Riders answered with a big play from their special teams when Loucheiz Purifoy returned Medlock’s kick 54 yards into Bomber territory. A 19-yard run by Bridge set up a 34-yard field goal from Lauther, his third of the game, to make it 13-9.


    The Bombers threatened again as the half melted away, but a 15-yard penalty against Patrick Neufeld proved to be costly, forcing an eventual 54-yard field goal attempt from Medlock. The Bombers’ usually-steady kicker missed to the left, sending the game to halftime with a four-point Winnipeg edge.


    With the Bombers nursing a four-point lead, it was a Chris Jones challenge flag that gave the Riders some life with 6:00 left in the third quarter. Bridge’s pass on second-and-nine fell incomplete, but Jones challenged for pass interference on Roosevelt and won, resulting in a first down at midfield.


    A pair of first-down scampers by Bridge moved the Riders into scoring possession, but a loss on first down and a false start penalty foiled their most promising drive, resulting in a 27-yard field goal from Lauther, his fourth of the game to cut the deficit to 13-12 entering the fourth quarter.


    It was anyone’s game heading into the final frame on a cold but calm night in Regina, with the Bombers holding an edge of 238 net yards to 194, and just one turnover between them.


    The Bombers forced a stop after Bridge’s deep ball on second-and-short fell incomplete. A long drive ensued thanks to some hard inside running by Harris, who threatened the century mark midway through the fourth, eventually setting up a 30-yard Medlock field goal to restore a four-point lead.


    Jeffcoat sacked Bridge on second down on the next drive — Jackson’s second sack of the game and his team’s third — forcing the Riders to punt from their own 10 with barely six minutes remaining.


    From there it was Harris time, with the Bombers’ Most Outstanding Canadian finding the edge for a 37-yard run to the Saskatchewan 16. After carrying the pile for 14 more down to the Saskatchewan two, Harris finished the drive with his first touchdown of the game, capping a short three-play, 53-yard scoring drive.


    The play was reviewed after Harris appeared to fumble, but it was revealed that he recovered the fumble in the end zone, putting the Bombers ahead 23-12 with 4:30 remaining.


    The Riders weren’t ready to fade into the night, responding with another big return from Purifoy, this one 47 yards into Bombers territory. Bridge scrambled and completed a pass to Roosevelt to move a stick, then Sayles’ second pass interference penalty extended the drive with a first down at the Winnipeg 22.


    Bridge took a shot for the end zone to Kyran Moore and while it fell incomplete, Moore was bumped on his way to the ball, drawing another interference penalty. On first and goal from the one, short-yardage specialist Nick Marshall sprinted around the end and beat the defender to the pylon. Roosevelt couldn’t hang on to the two-point conversion attempt, but the Riders pulled to within five points with 2:36 remaining.


    With the ball back in their hands with 40 seconds left, it was too little too late. David Watford‘s last-gasp pass was intercepted, sending the Bombers to the Western Final on the strength of a 23-18 win.
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  2. #402  
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    eastern final


    sun nov 18
    10:00 am pst
    ham
    @
    ott


    western final


    sun nov 18
    1:30 pm pst
    wpg
    @
    cgy




    ********************


    playoff record:


    11/11/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50




    best bets:


    Date..................ats....................units..................o/u...............units...............total


    11/11/2018........1 - 1...................0.50...................0 - 2................-11.00..............-11.50
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  3. #403  
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    CFL Betting Notes - Div Finals
    David Schwab


    This year’s CFL playoffs got underway on Sunday with a pair of matchups in the division semifinals. The East Division’s Hamilton Tiger-Cats made an early statement with a 48-8 rout of British Columbia as a crossover team from the West Division. Hamilton closed as a slight 1 -point home favorite with the total going OVER 51 points.


    The favorite prevailed in the second game as well with Winnipeg going on the road to cover a two-point spread in a 23-18 victory against Saskatchewan as a home underdog. The total stayed UNDER 50 points in that West Division clash.


    Sunday, Nov. 18


    Hamilton Tiger-Cats (9-10 SU, 8-10-1 ATS) at Ottawa Redblacks (11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS)

    Point-spread: Ottawa -3
    Total: 53


    Game Overview


    Hamilton limped into the postseason with just two victories in its last seven games both straight-up and against the spread. This included a pair of losses to Ottawa (SU and ATS) in a late-season home-and-home matchup. The total went OVER 54 points in a 35-31 loss Ottawa on the road before staying UNDER 53 points in the Tiger-Cats 30-13 loss at home the following week as 4 -point favorites. Hamilton also lost the first meeting at home 21-15 in late July as a six-point favorite against the RedBlacks.


    The most encouraging aspect of Sunday’s playoff win was the play of Hamilton’s defense, which kept BC off the board until the fourth quarter when the game was already out of hand. Jeremiah Masoli is the East Division’s nominee for Most Outstanding Player and he showed why with 259 yards passing and three touchdown throws in that game.


    Ottawa took a different path to winning the East this season with a 5-2 run in its last seven games both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER 47 points in a 24-9 victory against Toronto in the RedBlacks’ season finale as four-point home favorites and it stayed UNDER in six of their last nine games. They went 6-3 SU at home this season with a 4-5 record ATS.


    In order for Ottawa to get back to its second Grey Cup Championship in three seasons, its quarterback Trevor Harris is going to have to be at the top of his game. That was not always the case this season, but he did finish fourth on the list in total passing yards (5,116) while tossing 22 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. The RedBlacks averaged 25.8 points per game on offense to complement a defense that allowed an average of 23.3 PPG.


    Betting Trends


    -- The Tiger-Cats have gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last six playoff games and the total has gone OVER in six of their last seven division games.


    -- The RedBlacks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the postseason and the total has stayed UNDER in 18 of their last 24 East Division games.


    -- Ottawa has an 8-3 edge ATS in the last 11 meetings and the total has gone OVER in six of the last seven meetings in Ottawa.


    Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-8 SU, 11-7-1 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS)
    Point-spread: Calgary -4
    Total: 52


    Game Overview


    The Blue Bombers opened as two-point road underdogs for Sunday’s matchup against Saskatchewan, but an injury to the Roughriders’ quarterback Zach Collaros swung bettors the other way. Winnipeg finished the regular season with a 5-1 run in its last six games both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in five of its last seven games including the playoff win.


    This was the highest scoring offense in the CFL this season with an average of 30.6 PPG, but the Blue Bombers flourished on defense down the stretch with a points-allowed average of 17.2 in their last six regular season games. Matt Nichols took the majority of the snaps at quarterback in Sunday’s win and he completed 16-of-22 passing attempts for 169 yards and a score. Andrew Harris was the difference with 153 yards and a score running the ball.


    It is hard to know what to make of Calgary coming into this year’s playoffs. For the second season in a row, it stumbled down the stretch with three SU losses its last four games while going a costly 3-6 ATS over its final nine games of the year. The total stayed UNDER 50 points in a season-ending 26-9 victory on the road against BC as 8 -point favorites and it has stayed UNDER in four of the Stampeders’ last five games.


    That uncertainty could change on a dime if quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell gets off to a fast start this Sunday afternoon. He was third in the league in passing yards with 5,124 and he led the CFL in passing touchdowns with 35 against 14 interceptions. The Stampeders were the second-highest scoring team in the league with an average of 29.0 PPG, but they only exceeded that average once in their last six games.


    Betting Trends


    -- The Blue Bombers have covered in four of their last five playoff games on the road and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five division games.


    -- The Stampeders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven postseason games played at home and the total has gone OVER in four of their last five playoff games overall.


    -- The season series was split 1-1 with each team winning at home both SU and ATS. The total went OVER 53 points in Calgary’s 39-26 victory on Aug. 25 as a 7 -point home favorite. It stayed UNDER 52 -points on Oct. 26 in Winnipeg’s 29-21 victory as a 3 -point underdog at home.
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  4. #404  
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    CFL
    Long Sheet


    Division Finals



    Sunday, November 18


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    HAMILTON (9 - 10) at OTTAWA (11 - 7) - 11/18/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    HAMILTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
    OTTAWA is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1996.


    Head-to-Head Series History
    OTTAWA is 5-3 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    OTTAWA is 6-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
    5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WINNIPEG (11 - 8) at CALGARY (13 - 5) - 11/18/2018, 4:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CALGARY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 2 seasons.
    CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
    WINNIPEG is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 9 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CALGARY is 4-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
    CALGARY is 5-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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  5. #405  
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    CFL


    Division Finals



    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Sunday, November 18


    Hamilton Tiger-Cats
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games
    Hamilton is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games on the road
    Hamilton is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Ottawa
    Hamilton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
    Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Hamilton's last 8 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
    Ottawa RedBlacks
    Ottawa is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    Ottawa is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games
    Ottawa is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games at home
    Ottawa is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Hamilton
    Ottawa is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Hamilton
    Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Hamilton
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Ottawa's last 8 games when playing at home against Hamilton




    Winnipeg Blue Bombers
    Winnipeg is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
    Winnipeg is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games
    Winnipeg is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 18 of Winnipeg's last 25 games on the road
    Winnipeg is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games when playing Calgary
    Winnipeg is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Winnipeg is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Calgary
    Calgary Stampeders
    Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    Calgary is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games
    Calgary is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Calgary is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 9 games at home
    Calgary is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games when playing Winnipeg
    Calgary is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
    Calgary is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
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