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Thread: Cnotes 2018 Canadian Football League Picks - News - Trends !

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  1. #126  
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    CFL Betting Notes - Week 6
    July 16, 2018



    With only three games on the CFL slate last week, the UNDER on the total line was the best bet with the books given that all three contests turned into low-scoring affairs.


    Calgary remained perfect on the year both straight-up and against the spread with Thursday’s 27-3 victory against Ottawa as a three-point road favorite.


    On Friday night, Edmonton squeaked past Toronto 16-15 as a 9 ½-point favorite at home and on Saturday the British Columbia Lions knocked off Winnipeg 20-17 as a 4 ½-point home underdog.




    Thursday, July 19


    Saskatchewan Roughriders (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
    Point-spread: Hamilton -11
    Total: 51 ½


    Game Overview



    This will be the second meeting in an extended home-and-home series after Saskatchewan beat the Tiger-Cats 18-13 on July 5 as a six-point home underdog. The total stayed UNDER 51 points in that victory and it has stayed UNDER in three of the Roughriders’ first four games. Brandon Bridge and David Watford were ineffective throwing the ball against Hamilton with a combined 148 yards passing. However, the Roughriders did rack-up 150 yards rushing on 23 carries.


    Hamilton dropped to 2-2 (SU and ATS) with that loss after posting back-to-back victories against Edmonton on the road and Winnipeg at home in its previous two games. The total has stayed UNDER in three of the Tiger-Cats first four outings. Jeremiah Masoli was able to move the ball through the air against Saskatchewan in that first meeting with 333 total passing yards, but he could not get his team into the end zone. He is currently second in the CFL in passing with 1,378 yards through his first four games.


    Betting Trends


    -- Saskatchewan has won four of the last five meetings both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Hamilton.




    Friday, July 20


    British Columbia Lions (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
    Point-spread: Ottawa -6 ½
    Total: 53 ½



    Game Overview


    The Lions are coming off a split both SU and ATS in a recent home-and-home series against Winnipeg as part of their 2-2 record both ways on the year. The total stayed UNDER 55 points in Saturday’s upset against the Blue Bombers after going OVER the closing line in two of BC’s first three games. Travis Lulay got the call at quarterback in Week 5 and he responded with 326 yards passing with one touchdown throw against one interception. He completed at least one pass to eight different players.


    Ottawa’s two losses this season have come against Calgary on the road and at home. It has also beaten Saskatchewan at home and Montreal on the road closing as a favorite. The total has stayed UNDER in each of its last three contests with a scoring average of 15.0 points per game. Trevor Harris looked awful in his two losses to the Stampeders, but he still has 915 yards passing and five touchdown throws in his first four games.


    Betting Trends


    -- Ottawa has a 4-2 edge both SU and ATS in its last six games against BC and the total has stayed UNDER in four of its last six home games against the Lions.




    Saturday, July 21


    Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)
    Point-spread: PICK
    Total: 50 ½



    Game Overview


    The Blue Bombers have scored at least 30 points in three of their first five games this season with the total easily going OVER in each of those contests. They opened the season with a tough 33-30 loss to Edmonton as seven-point home underdogs before waxing BC 41-19 at home in Week 4 as 6 ½-point favorites. Matt Nichols is back under center for Winnipeg and he threw for 214 yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions in last week’s less than stellar performance.


    Toronto lost the backend of its home-and-home series against Edmonton and it has now failed to score more than 20 points in each of its first four games. The total has stayed UNDER in all four contests. James Franklin got the start at quarterback against the Eskimos for an injured Ricky Ray. After throwing for 217 yards with one touchdown pass and one interception in Game 1 at home, he completed 26-of-36 passing attempts for 296 yards against Edmonton in last week’s loss on the road.


    Betting Trends


    -- The Argonauts have won 11 of the last 16 meetings against Winnipeg SU, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five matchups against the Blue Bombers. The total has gone OVER in four of those last five meetings.




    Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)
    Point-Spread: Calgary OFF
    Total: OFF

    Game Overview


    Montreal has already established itself as the worst team in the CFL this season on each side of the ball after winning just three games SU all last season. The Alouettes have complemented an offense that is averaging 15.3 PPG with a defense that is giving up 30.8 points a game. They are coming off a bye last week after losing to Ottawa at home 28-18 on July 6 as 7 ½-point home underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER in three of Montreal’s first four games.


    At the opposite end of the spectrum in the CFL, Calgary is off to a perfect 4-0 start (SU and ATS) while winning each game by 10 points or more. The total has stayed UNDER in all four games behind a defense that has not allowed more than 14 points in any of those wins. The big concern for Saturday’s matchup as far as the actual betting spread is the playing status of quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. He left last Thursday’s victory at Ottawa with an injured knee.


    Betting Trends

    -- Calgary has won its last five home games against Montreal SU, but it has failed to cover in six of the last seven meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight games between the two.
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  2. #127  
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    CFL Week 6


    Saskatchewan (2-2) @ Hamilton (2-2) (-10.5, 51)— Roughriders nipped Hamilton 18-13 at home two weeks ago, scoring winning TD with 1:50 left. TiCats didn’t score TD in game- total yardage was 429-298, Hamilton. Saskatchewan had last week off; they split first four games (under 3-1), losing 40-17 at Ottawa in their only road game. Hamilton also had last week off; they split first four games (under 3-1), beating Ottawa 38-21 in their only home game. Riders won last four series games, but lost three of last four series games in Ontario. Under is 7-2 in last nine series games.


    BC Lions (2-2) @ Ottawa (2-2) (-7, 53)— Teams split eight series meetings, going 2-2 in each city; over is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Home side won all four BC games this season; Lions lost 41-19/41-22 in visits to Winnipeg, Edmonton- both those games went over the total. Lions covered only one of last eight road games. BC allowed 17-10 points in their wins. RedBlacks split their first four games, losing twice to unbeaten Calgary, winning other two games by 23-10 points. Ottawa’s last three games stayed under total- under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games overall.


    Winnipeg (2-3) (-2, 52.5) @ Toronto (1-3)— Blue Bombers are only team not to have bye yet; they lost four of last five visits to Toronto- home side won seven of last nine series games, with Winnipeg covering last four. Over is 7-2 in last nine series games. Bombers are 2-1 when they score 30+ points, 0-2 when they score less than 30, losing by 14-3 points. Over is 3-2 in their games, 1-2 on road. Toronto scored 15.3 ppg in losing three of its first four games, all of which stayed under the total. Argonauts’ last two games (both vs Edmonton) were decided by total of four points.


    Montreal (1-3) @ Calgary (4-0) (NL)— Stampeders’ QB Mitchell is a ?? here; rookie Arbuckle gets nod if Mitchell can’t go. Home side won last nine series games; Alouettes lost last five visits to Calgary by 48-14-3-21-11 points- they lost 59-11 here LY. Under is 6-2 in last eight series games, 3-2 in last five here. Montreal scored 15.3 ppg in their 1-3 start; they had LW off. Alouettes won in Regina, lost 22-10 in BC; all four of their games stayed under the total. Stamps won/covered all four of their games, with 24-14 the closest win. Calgary beat Hamilton by 14, Ottawa by 10 in their two home games; all four of their games stayed under.
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  3. #128  
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    CFL (CANADIAN)


    DUNKEL'S HIGHLIGHTED GAME


    Saskatchewan at Hamilton - Thursday July 19, 2018



    The Roughriders head to Hamilton on Thursday night to face a Tiger-Cats team that is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 home games. Saskatchewan is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tiger-Cats favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+10 1/2).

    THURSDAY JULY 19, 2018


    Saskatchewan
    @
    Hamilton

    Game 371-372
    July 19, 2018 @ 7:30 pm


    Dunkel Rating: Saskatchewan
    108.738
    Hamilton
    116.896
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Hamilton
    by 8
    55
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Hamilton
    by 10 1/2
    51
    Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan
    (+10 1/2); Over





    FRIDAY JULY 20, 2018


    BC Lions
    @
    Ottawa

    Game 373-374
    July 20, 2018 @ 7:30 pm


    Dunkel Rating: BC Lions
    107.536
    Ottawa
    111.856
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Ottawa
    by 4 1/2
    56
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Ottawa
    by 7
    52 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: BC Lions
    (+7); Over





    SATURDAY JULY 21, 2018


    Winnipeg
    @
    Toronto

    Game 375-376
    July 21, 2018 @ 4:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating: Winnipeg
    114.696
    Toronto
    110.233
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Winnipeg
    by 4 1/2
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Winnipeg
    Pick
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg
    Under




    Montreal
    @
    Calgary

    Game 377-378
    July 21, 2018 @ 9:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating: Montreal
    98.608
    Calgary
    126.718
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total: Calgary
    by 28
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total: Calgary
    No Line
    N/A
    Dunkel Pick: Calgary
    N/A
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  4. #129  
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    Thursday's Best Bet
    July 18, 2018



    Thursday CFL Betting Preview


    Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Hamilton Tigercats



    Week 6 of the CFL season kicks off on Thursday with a rematch from Week 4 between Saskatchewan and Hamilton. Both teams had a bye in between so it's not a “true” home-and-home, but after Saskatchewan won that first meeting 18-13 two weeks ago closing as 6-point home underdogs, you'd better believe that Hamilton has been anxiously waiting for their opportunity at redemption these past 14 days.


    Will the Tigercats get it done?


    And more importantly, will they get it done in a big way to cover this big number they are laying?


    Odds: Hamilton (-10.5); Total set at 51


    Saskatchewan won that first meeting despite getting outgained by nearly 200 yards through the air, sticking with their QB rotation (Brandon Bridge and David Watford), and really not getting much of anything done offensively outside of a decent run or two. But a fumble return TD always helps and with a defense that clearly was in bend but don't break mode, Saskatchewan found a way to get the job done. A result like that isn't really sustainable long term though and with Saskatchewan sticking with their QB rotation in all likelihood again this week, they have got to hope at least one of them catches fire to even have a chance at sweeping this series.


    But what may be more worrisome for the Riders this week is the fact that for as good as their defense was two weeks ago in shutting down Hamilton, that Riders defense didn't travel with them on the plane for their only other road game this year.


    Saskatchewan's lone game as visitors in 2018 was a 40-17 beatdown by the Ottawa Redblacks back in Week 2 and I believe we get a similar result here this week. Hamilton has had two full weeks to review the film of what did/didn't work in that first meeting, adapt accordingly, and hopefully execute at a much higher level back at home. Hamilton's lone home game this season was a 31-17 beating of Winnipeg, so scoring 30+ should come rather easily for the Tigercats here. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see them approach that 40 number that Ottawa hung on this Saskatchewan team away from home. Hamilton's offense did bounce back once already this year after a bad Week 1 performance in Calgary (28-14 loss) by putting up 38 points the next week, and it's that type of offensive output I'm expecting from the Tigercats this week.


    Therefore, if you want to lay the points with Hamilton, I say go ahead. I was hoping (and still am) that this number creeps into the single digits so I'd feel more comfortable laying the chalk and a 10-point victory would be enough to cash, but for the side at the current moment, it seems more like a very sharp line that could land a point or two on either side. But thanks to the CFL being an 'under' bettor's haven the past two weeks (1-3 O/U in Week 4, 0-3 O/U in Week 5), this total has come in at 51 again and it's that number that I'm looking to cash on.


    'Over' bettors in the CFL can't help but be a little gun shy at the moment with the 1-6 O/U run the league is on, but if you're of the mindset of “waiting to see something first from any particular offense” (especially Saskatchewan in this case) before betting an 'over', that's when you get left behind and it ends up being too late. Personally, I'm looking to stay ahead of the curve here and play on the high side of this total simply because of how the game script should play out here.


    Hamilton is going to look to jump all over this Saskatchewan defense right away, put up big points on them early (like Ottawa did) and then cruise the rest of the way to win. Saskatchewan's offense will have no choice but to take plenty of shots down the field if that's the case and that will either lead to points for the Riders or short fields for the Tigercats. Saskatchewan's QB's on an individual level aren't happy about this splitting time ordeal and the only way to really put an end to it is to go out on the field, take some chances and cash in. Both Bridge and Watson have to be of that mindset here – especially as a double-digit underdog – and no matter if it turns out great for Saskatchewan or a disaster, chances are we will see points scored.


    So while many are already looking to the low side of this total based on the previous meeting between these two, the league-wide trends of 'unders' hitting, and the idea that Saskatchewan's offense can't be trusted, I'll gladly take the value in going against the herd mentality (that's already pushed this number 0.5 points lower) and look for a high-scoring, entertaining, 35-25 type win for Hamilton. Remember, Saskatchewan's lone road game easily cashed an 'over' ticket, as did Hamilton's lone home game this year. This meeting won't be any different.


    Best Bet: Over 51 points
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  5. #130  
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    Quote Originally Posted by tar_heel_in_sc View Post
    Cnotes, does Riders +10.5 not look like the sucker bet of the year to you?? What am I missing?
    To answer your question Tar Hell In SC...............i have the line at Ham -7....it will possibly go up to 7.5 or 8.0.......yes i think it could be a suckers bet......Just my opinion.....
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  6. #131  
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    Owens activates 10-day clause with CFL
    July 17, 2018



    Soon-to-be Pro Football Hall of Fame wide receiver Terrell Owens wants to play in the Canadian Football League this season.


    Owens has invoked the 10-day clause that gives the Edmonton Eskimos a window to offer him a deal or to release him from their negotiation list. He made the request on July 14.


    Jason Staroszik, a Canada-based agent who is representing Owens, told TSN's Dave Naylor that the 44-year-old "absolutely 100 percent" wants to play in the CFL.


    "He still feels like he has some football years left in him," Staroszik said. "He just loves the game and wants to get back to playing whether it's the CFL or NFL."


    Staroszik told ESPN that Owens "wants to play in the NFL, but if he can't, the CFL is the next-best option."


    Owens last played in the NFL in 2010 with the Cincinnati Bengals, recording 72 receptions for 983 yards and nine touchdowns in 14 games. He played briefly in 2011 for the Allen Wranglers of the Indoor Football League and attempted an NFL comeback in 2012 before being cut in training camp by the Seattle Seahawks.


    Owens recently posted a video of himself running a sub-4.5-second 40-yard dash while working out with Atlanta Falcons star wide receiver Julio Jones.


    Last month, Owens announced that he would not attend his Hall of Fame induction ceremony in Canton, Ohio. Instead, Owens will give his speech at the University of Tennessee-Chattanooga, where he played college football.


    Should Owens join the Eskimos, he could make his CFL debut on Aug. 2 against the Saskatchewan RoughRiders.


    A six-time Pro Bowl selection, Owens resides second in career receiving yards (15,934), third in receiving touchdowns (153) and eighth in receptions with 1,078. He played for the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and Bengals.
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