The Royals find themselves back home after a seven game road trip capped by a 5-3 Sunday Win over the Rangers as a +180 dog. Jake Junis will take the ball for KC to open this three game set against the slumping Twins. Junis has posted respectable numbers of late against the above-average offenses of the Cards, Yankees and Indians. Over the course of those 16 IP, Junis posted a 4.50 era where he allowed just 1 HR on 19 Ks and 4 BBs. Looking deeper into Junis' last three starts, he experienced a drop in hard contact% in each start to a season low of 23% in his most recent start coming on the road against the Cardinals. With that being said, Junis has also seen his BABIP against rise in each of those three starts to a season high of .385 against the Cardinals. With consistent aV numbers, this is the spot for Junis to lower his BABIP against and fire a quality start against an underexposed lineup of 37 Twins ABs. The Twins will continue their losing road trip after getting swept in Seattle. With a BA well below the Mendoza line over their last seven games, this is a good spot for a Twins fade. Lance Lynn comes in with a respectable BOB Score of 144 and the reason for the fade against Lynn can be seen in the sabers from his last start. In Lynn's last start which came at home against the below-average Tigers, he posted an absurd, unsustainable 80% GB rate (16 GBs) compared to a season average of 7 GBs/S. Looking deeper into that start, Lynn experienced a drop in his SLv (13% usage rate) from 87.5 mph in his previous start to 85.6 mph (SA 87 mph) in his most recent start against the Tigers. This Royals lineup has a combined 77 ABs against Lynn to match a .286 BA/.360 OBP with 3 HRs. Going to back this Royals bullpen who has been better of late posting a 3.43 era over their L14 Days while stranding 86% of runners.
Play on the Royals at -115
Play on the Royals at -115
