- Best best for the NBA Finals
- Erin Rynning
- Andrew Han
With a pair of Game 7 wins in the conference finals, the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers advance to meet again in the NBA Finals.
LeBron James will be seeking his fourth championship, while Stephen Curry and the Warriors look to defend their 2017 title for their third in four seasons. It is the fourth straight Finals to see the Warriors and Cavs play for the championship.
In order to find the best betting value, Erin Rynning and Andrew Han are here to provide their best bets for the series, MVP and Game 1.
Note: All odds via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of May 30.[h=2]Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers[/h]
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Rynning: As we journey into the fourth straight meeting of Golden State and Cleveland in the NBA Finals, these two teams paint a clear picture of just how difficult it is to cash an underdog series betting ticket. From the preseason into the playoffs -- with some wavering -- it has been a collision course of LeBron vs. the Warriors. But it's now a foregone conclusion that the Warriors will repeat as champions.<strike></strike>
The Cavaliers return with a +650 price tag. They need a minor miracle to pull the series upset, and while they have the closest thing to a basketball miracle in James, the deck is stacked against the Cavs. They simply can't match the pure talent of the Warriors.
The Warriors have numerous plus-defenders to throw at LeBron in Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and others. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers simply lack the playmakers around him to keep the pressure from mounting. As we've seen throughout his NBA career and through the Eastern Conference playoffs, James can will his team to victory, but it's difficult to see that scenario playing out more than once or maybe twice. The favorites continue in the NBA as the Warriors sweep the Cavaliers.
Prediction: Warriors in four games
Best bet: Warriors in exactly four games +160
Han: A fox once chanced upon a boar sharpening its tusks against a tree trunk. The fox looked around and, seeing no threat, asked, "Why are you readying to fight? There's nobody around." Finishing his task, the boar responded, "To only prepare when conflict is imminent is to prepare for failure." And the Cavs sure seem to only begin preparation when danger is imminent.
After a combined 35 games in the 2018 postseason, it's obvious why Golden State over Cleveland is the widest Finals betting margin in 16 years -- the Warriors marched through the first two rounds before overcoming a team specifically designed to challenge them. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers were dragged on the back of James in almost every road game to their fourth consecutive Finals appearance, something that seemed unlikely at several points through the season and postseason.
Of course, Golden State -1000 is the common-sense bet for the series. Cleveland has shown little evidence of an ultimate victory, unless there's a belief in perceived illusory patterns. Then, forget about the Cavs +650 for the Finals, it's time to be tempted by LeBron in four (300-1) and regale future company with how obvious the Cavs' 7-4-7-4 postseason series run was to spot.
Prediction: Warriors in five games
Best bet: Warriors -1000
[h=2]MVP[/h]
Rynning: It has been a struggle at times for Curry while overcoming injury and minutes restrictions. However, it's clear his play is picking up. In Game 7 against the Houston Rockets, Curry notched a 27-10-9 stat line. He's now averaging over 28 points per game in the Warriors' past five games. Notably, the minutes are up in the low 40s as well.
The Cavaliers can struggle on the defensive end, as Curry should be able to create a plethora of opportunities all over the floor. Reigning Finals MVP Kevin Durant is the betting favorite at -125, and James checks in at +650 (which is the same as the Cavaliers' series odds), but look for Curry to take home the MVP trophy at +150.
[h=2]Game 1[/h]
Thursday, 9 p.m. ET in Oakland, Calif.<strike></strike>
Rynning: Last year the Warriors were just a 7.5-point favorite in Game 1 against the Cavaliers, eventually winning by 22. Unfortunately, the tax is much higher this year with the Warriors being a commanding 12.5-point favorite. However, note the game total of 214. The game total hovered around 225 in Game 1 last season, and with both teams off long layoffs, it was a sloppy offensive performance. Still, the five-game series featured an average combined score of 236.
The conference finals turned into tight fights in the end with slow pace and many missed 3-point shots. Yes, the Warriors possess a top-notch defense, but both teams can flat-out score. Don't be surprised to see the Warriors approach 130 points themselves as soon as Thursday with a more free-flowing game. The play is over the game total of 214.
Best bet: Over 214 total points
Han: Warriors -12.5 in Game 1 seems as likely an outcome as the series. Consider this: In the three Game 1s this postseason, Golden State has won by an average margin of 18.7 points, all wins. The Cavs have lost two Game 1s already, and even including their lone victory (a one-point overtime win in Toronto), Cleveland's deficit measures at 14 points per Game 1. The uncertainty of Kevin Love only exacerbates the offensive troubles for Cleveland. Aside from LeBron, whom can the Cavs rely upon for production, especially on the road?
Over 214 points for Game 1 feels like a given on first blush, given the offense prowess of Golden State, but how will the East champion hold up its end of the point-total bargain? I struggle seeing the Cavs score enough to hit the over, so I'd actually lean on the under, even though I liked it a bit more when the number was up at 216.5 earlier this week.
Prediction: Warriors 112, Cavaliers 97
Best bets: Warriors -12.5 and under 214 total points
- Erin Rynning
