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Thread: ERockMoney 2018 World Cup Outlook

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  1. #1 ERockMoney 2018 World Cup Outlook 
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    Group A:

    Winner:

    Uruguay -110
    Russia +190
    Egypt +750
    Saudi Arabia +5000

    To Qualify:

    Uruguay -500
    Russia -257
    Egypt +175
    Saudi Arabia +1100

    Not to Qualify:

    Uruguay +500
    Russia +240
    Egypt -200
    Saudi Arabia -1100
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  2. #2  
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    2.0 Uruguay to win Group A -110
    0.3 Uruguay to reach semi-finals +500
    0.3 Cavani leading goal scorer +3000

    1.0 Spain champions +700

    Thoughts on Group A coming shortly.
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  3. #3  
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    Group A is not only the weakest group in the tournament, but likely the weakest group in WC history. Russia seeded in pot 1/A1 as the host is likely the weakest host nation ever, save for S Africa, Saudi Arabia is the worst or second worst side in the tourney with Panama, Egypt is one of the weaker sides even with Solah and drops further without him and Uruguay is the only threat within the group.

    This is likely Uruguay’s best team in years, continuing to feature an incredible attack with Cavani and Suarez, but now has more youth and speed in the MF and an improved back line compared to recent tourney’s. Uruguay’s path is about as good as it gets with an atrocious group, a likely match up in the knockout stages with a highly overrated Portugal side, and a likely quarterfinal matchup with France who is always ripe for the picking.

    Uruguay to win the group at -110 is a steal and there is significant value on Cavani or Suarez to be the leading scorers in the tourney at 30/1. Uruguay should score plenty during the group stage and get two-three matches in the knockout portion of the tourney. Six goals from any one player should get it done. Prices on a QF or SF run are also favorable at +163 and +500, respectively.

    Russia despite their struggles and recent injuries should still slip into second, but there’s no value at these prices. I’m not sold at all on this Egyptian side and suspect there can be some profitable times to fade them. Saudi Arabia is a mess, but I’m not so sure they are going to cruise to zero points and there could be some value when they face off with Egypt.
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  4. #4  
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    Uruguay will be anchored along the backline by Godín and Gimenez, teammates at Atletico and will feature their best MF in years led by Bentancur (Juve), Vecino (Inter), De Arrascaeta (Cruzeiro) and Nandez (Boca). I do think leaving Real owned youngster Valverde off the roster was a mistake, but this version of Uruguay’s MF will feature the best mix of talent, youth and speed they have had in years.

    Adding 0.5 Uruguay to make Quarter-Finals +163
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  5. #5  
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    Group B:

    Winner:

    Spain -180
    Portugal +225
    Morocco +2000
    Iran +4000

    To qualify:

    Spain -1000
    Portugal -300
    Morocco +400
    Iran +600

    Not to qualify:

    Spain +900
    Portugal +333
    Morocco -350
    Iran -700
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  6. #6  
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    At first glance, not much to see here in Group B, but a bit further analysis sheds some value on Morocco. Portugal won the EURO in about as uninspiring way possible. Repeated draws, benefiting from the new structure and playing as conservative/boring as is possible. The back line is ancient and can’t play uptempo and lacks any real significant movement in the back. There is offensive potential, but it’s hindered by the game plan of protecting the backline.

    The ordering of matches doesn’t help the Portuguese either. Opening with Spain who will be out for blood after their 2014 debacle and disappointment in the EURO, is the worst possible time to draw the Spanish IMO. A lopsided loss in the opener could spell doom for Portugal, similar to their fate in 2014 after an opening blowout at the hands of the Germans. Meanwhile, Morocco draws Spain last, who daily could have th group in hand at that point. A depleted/uninspired Spain is still a tough draw for Morocco, but could help Morocco fare better than Portugal.

    Morocco are no pushovers and they are certainly not a given to post to Portugal. At +400 to qualify, they are worth a look.
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  7. #7  
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    Adding:

    0.3 Morocco to Qualify +400
    0.1 Aspas leading goal scorer +6600

    Taking a flier on Aspas, expecting Spain to make the final and he clearly provides their best chance to win and should start. I wouldn’t be surprised if Spain screws this up and plays Costa more significantly than they should, Aspas is the answer IMO and gives them the most life and skill up front.
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  8. #8  
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    Group C:

    Winner:

    France -225
    Denmark +450
    Peru +1200
    Australia +2400

    To Qualify:

    France -1000
    Denmark -137
    Peru +225
    Australia +445

    Not to Qualify:

    France +1000
    Denmark +125
    Peru -250
    Australia -400
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  9. #9  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ERockMoney View Post
    Uruguay will be anchored along the backline by Godín and Gimenez, teammates at Atletico and will feature their best MF in years led by Bentancur (Juve), Vecino (Inter), De Arrascaeta (Cruzeiro) and Nandez (Boca). I do think leaving Real owned youngster Valverde off the roster was a mistake, but this version of Uruguay’s MF will feature the best mix of talent, youth and speed they have had in years.

    Adding 0.5 Uruguay to make Quarter-Finals +163
    I am in complete agreement with you re Uruguay and I’vealready backed them at 33/1 to win the tournament (I feel they are a genuinechance) I will also back them at other various stages….they will not beoverawed by facing any of the “big guns”
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  10. #10  
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    Not much to say with Group C, even if France struggles they should win this group. If they do struggle there may be some opportunitiy to fade an individual match during the group, but I fully expect this side to easily win the group, it’s just a question of if they roll or face some opposition along the way.

    Only potential play I’m looking at here is Peru to qualify. Guerrero has been cleared to play and will avoid his suspension, for now. His involvement is huge and I have this side fairly even with Denmark, so a +225 number to qualify is appealing. I was quite impressed with this Peru side during their qualification run through a very challenging South America. They posted a 7-6-5 mark, finishing ahead of Chile, Paraguay and Ecuador, all thought to be threats to qualify, and were very competitive in nearly every match, save for their pair with Brazil.

    The Danes have a compent squad led by a Spurs star Ericksen, but I think they may be a tad overhyped here. They can explode, as they did in monster victories over Poland 4-1 and Ireland 5-1, but they can also be very lackadaisical. They remind me a bit of the Austrians heading into the EURO, a traditional power whose been down, a solid qualification campaign, stars inform for the league clubs, only to disappoint.

    I’m going to sit on this one a bit longer, but that’s where I’m leaning.
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  11. #11  
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    Group D:

    Winner:

    Argentina -138
    Croatia +260
    Nigeria +1150
    Iceland +1600

    To Qualify:

    Argentina -633
    Croatia -188
    Nigeria +260
    Iceland +350

    Not to Qualify:

    Argentina +600
    Croatia +188
    Nigeria -300
    Iceland -350
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  12. #12  
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    Group D may be the most challenging group of the tourney and presents some significant opportunities to profit. The group is headlined by Argentina who may be one of the most overrated “elite” sides in the tourney. This may be the Spain of this World Cup whose floor simply falls out. The Argentine’s have significant concerns in net, across the backline and in the midfield compared to other powerhouses. Throw in suspect leadership on the sidelines and on the pitch, in-house bickering, a poor qualification campaign, unrealistic expectations and a murderous group, I’m expecting this side to fail to qualify, bringing all the drama to a head.

    Argentina still has an abundance of talent up front with Messi, Di Maria, Dybala, Higuain and Aguero, but are getting a little long in the tooth and many of their stars aren’t coming off their best club performances. Dybala provides the best burst up front with Messi, but buzz is he’s likely to come off the bench, if play at all, another questionable decision in a long line of questionable decisions.
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  13. #13  
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    Croatia have been disappointments at several major tourney’s over the years, despite lofty expectations, but this could be their year to make a significant run. As always, Croatia will feature a loaded MF with Modric (Real), Rakitic (Barca), Kovacic (Real), Badelj (Fiorentina) and Brozovic (Inter). The backline should be a step up from previous tourney’s led by Liverpool man Lovren in the middle and Atlético’s Vrsajklo on the outside. The biggest improvement for the Croatians will be up front in the attack, which will still feature Inter frontman Perisic, likely in a roaming attacking midfield type of roll and Mandzukic (Juve), who should be coming off the bench, but could see some starting minutes. Added to the attack are Redic, who was superb for Frankfurt this season, Kramaric (Hoffenheim), Kalinic (Milan) and Schalke youngster (Pjaca). The insertion of youth/talent/depth up front may be the missing piece for the Croatians. I like this side to take down group D and throw the first real wrench into the knockout stage as an unlikely group winner.
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  14. #14  
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    Nigeria are likely the strongest African side this tourney and should create problems for Argentina, Croatia and Iceland. The Super Eagles will feature a dynamic attack with former Chelsea man Obi being the lead distributor with Arsenal’s young striker Iwobi, Chelsea’s Moses, former Watford frontman Ighalo, Crotone’s Nwankwo and Leicester’s Iheanacho wreaking havoc of defenses. Although the group is incredibly difficult, all four sides have questions on the backline, which should open up offensive opportunities for attackers.

    This Nigerian side plays with pace a relentless attack. Due to their style of play and questions in the backline they should give up goals, but I expect them to score plenty of goals as well. I favor this side to qualify and leave Argentina on the outside looking in.
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  15. #15  
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    Adding:

    0.5 Argentina not to qualify +600
    0.5 Croatia to win Group D +260
    0.3 Nigeria to qualify +260
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  16. #16  
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    Group E:

    Winner:

    Brazil -275
    Switzerland +750
    Serbia +800
    Costa Rica +2200

    To Qualify:

    Brazil -850
    Switzerland +120
    Serbia +125
    Costa Rica +450

    Not to Qualify:

    Brazil +1000
    Switzerland -120
    Serbia -125
    Costa Rica -500
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  17. #17  
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    I don’t see much value here in Group E. Brazil should roll and easily win the group, the Swiss and Serbians should battle for second with Costa Rica coming up the rear. I like Serbia to finish second, but was expecting a much better number, especially with the constant unwarranted hype that usually comes with the Swiss.

    The Swiss open with Brazil and close with CR, while Serbia has the opposite and more favorable structure. Costa Rica appears a bit underpriced, which could provide some value for them in individual matches throughout the group.
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  18. #18  
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    Group F:

    Winner:

    Germany -225
    Mexico +650
    Sweden +840
    S Korea +2000

    To Qualify:

    Germany -700
    Mexico +120
    Sweden +138
    S Korea +500

    Not to Qualify:

    Germany +800
    Mexico -111
    Sweden -138
    S Korea -400
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  19. #19  
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    Not much to see here with Group F, the Germans should roll. I’m actually quite surprised they are only -225, which seems underpriced. Mexico and Sweden will battle for second and S Korea is in trouble. I like the Swedes to advance, but not sure there’s much value at +138. Mexico always seems to find a way in and is promptly defeated in the round of 16, probably pass on any futures here unless I want to invest in what is likely a surefire German win of the group.
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  20. #20  
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    Group G:

    Winner:

    Belgium -120
    England +138
    Tunisia +2500
    Panama +5000

    To qualify:

    Belgium -1100
    England -600
    Tunisia +500
    Panama +1200

    Not to Qualify:

    Belgium +800
    England +600
    Tunisia -500
    Panama -1400
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  21. #21  
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    Interesting group that should be a two-way battle for the top two spots, but Belgium is soft as butter and England choke with the best of them. Could a gritty Tunisia team find their way in? I doubt it, but the pending implosions from the top two are always a moment away. Belgium will likely save their collapse to the knockout stage and promptly succumb to the first side they play with a pulse. England should find their way through and it wouldn’t shock me if they won the group. I suspect the runner-up will face Columbia and the winner face Poland, Senegal or Japan. If England finishes second as I suspect, they could get past Columbia, but would be shredded by the Germans in the final 8. Belgium should handle Group H’s runner-up, but then would face Brazil, which would likely end their tournament.

    Likely a pass on any futures here at this time.
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  22. #22  
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    EROCK I was looking at lines at heritage and couldn't find any props on group A, any reason why? Tia
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  23. #23  
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    Group H:

    Winner:

    Columbia +163
    Poland +188
    Senegal +500
    Japan +800

    To Qualify:

    Columbia -188
    Poland -167
    Senegal +135
    Japan +250

    Not to Qualify:

    Columbia +200
    Poland +163
    Senegal -138
    Japan -250
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  24. #24  
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    The tightest group according the bookmakers. I favor Columbia, but am also high on Senegal and one of the few relatively high on Japan. I’m certainly in the minority with the Japanese, as most expect a poor showing and last place finish. I think they squeak through in second, just behind the Columbians. This group is super tight and my favorite play is Poland not to qualify. This side continues to unimpress, even with Lewandowski up front. Poland play ultra-conservative and are quickly becoming the new Swiss. From everything I can gather, nothing much has changed with Poland’s approach, so expect a very dull, univentive game plan playing for the hopes of getting a Lewandowski goal and happy with the draw.

    I do like this Columbian side and feel they could make a run, but are facing a brutal run of likely England, Germany and Spain to reach the finals and just can’t see them running that gauntlet. It would actually benefit Columbia to finish second and face Belgium, Brazil and France, which I find a significantly easier run to the finals.

    More thoughts on this group up shortly.
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  25. #25  
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    Columbia have the tools to make a run, but they need to open things up a bit more a play a more inspired type of game. They have tendency to sit back too often and lack aggression. Arsenal’s Ospina will guard the net and the formidable back line features Arias (Eindhoven), Mina (Barca), Sánchez (Spurs) and Fabra (Boca). The Columbians can grind teams down and prevent goals being scored, but at times it’s at the expense of scoring goals.

    Their midfield needs a better performance than last WC and will feature a string defensive MF with Lerma (Levante) and Sanchez (Espanyol) with Cuadrado (Juve), Rodríguez (Bayern) and Uribe (Club America) in attacking MF roles. James Rodriguez was spectacular in the last WC and has been excellent since joining Bayern after a rough stretch with Real. He’s going to need more help this go around if this team is going to go deep.

    Up front Falcao (Monaco) will be the lone striker, after missing 2014 due to injury. His role will be critical, as the Columbians tend to have issues scoring goals due to their style of play, but can play with the lead with the best of them. Carlos Bacca (Villarreal), Luis Muriel (Sevilla), Miguel Borja (Palmeiras) and Jose Izquierdo (Brighton) will provide support off the bench and give this side a deeper more talented attack than 2014. The question remains, will they unleash it? This is certainly one of the more boom or bust sides in the tourney who could fail to qualify from the group or find themselves in the semi-finals.
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