How to bet the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes
Chris FallicaESPN INISDER
The Belmont Stakes brings an opportunity of a Triple Crown for Justify. There are plenty of ways to approach betting the last leg of the Triple Crown. Here are some thoughts on the race, the field and how to bet it.
Note: All odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of June 7.
The fieldNote: All odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of June 7.
Justify (Mike Smith/Bob Baffert): EVEN
Nobody has beaten him yet, and if he can win for a sixth time in six lifetime starts, he'll join Seattle Slew as the only undefeated Triple Crown winners. But this is far from a walkover.
Typically in a route of this distance, post position doesn't matter much. But the rail is the last place Justify wants to be here. I expect he will be under pressure from the start, with Gronkowski and Noble Indy making sure the favorite doesn't get away with easy fractions. Justify was due for a regression in the Preakness, and indeed his 97 Beyer was the lowest of his career, granted it did come on a sloppy surface. But it sure didn't look promising to me that another quarter mile with that type of trip would land him in the winners circle at Belmont. For the optimists, one could argue Justify ran the worst race of his career, was due for a regression, got it out of his system and still won. He will certainly improve here.
Then there's the whole WinStar/common ownership debate. Justify and Audible, the third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, are both owned by the same ownership groups, but are trained by different trainers (Todd Pletcher trains Audible). Audible could have been viewed as Justify's biggest threat here. Why would they want to risk ruining their Triple Crown bid by running a horse that could beat him. And that's the key part of this to me. Running Audible, in my opinion, would mean Justify couldn't be beaten by Audible, a clear sign of confidence that Justify was a superior horse. Plus, running Audible could also help boost his value as a stallion. Not running Audible would mean there were concerns about Justify and he is vulnerable in this race, and they didn't want to potentially be the ones to ruin their own Triple Crown bid. After all, this is his third race in five weeks after entering the Derby with just three lifetime starts. The saga unfolded, and then well after the announcement Audible wouldn't run, we were told he was going to be freshened and given some rest for the summer. Of course, Audible has run all of three times since December, so that logic really doesn't sit well with me.
I also suggest reading a recent piece by Mike Watchmaker in the Daily Racing Form detailing past Triple Crown winners who also failed in the Belmont from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint. To summarize it, Justify would be bucking a lot of history if he wins here. He's been perfect so far and a win here would establish his place in history. Is he a deserving short-priced favorite? Absolutely. Is he by far the most accomplished horse in the race? Absolutely. Can he win? Absolutely. I will use him on top, but not single him. I just have this feeling that he is a very vulnerable favorite chasing history here.
Free Drop Billy (Robby Albarado/Dale Romans): 40-1
He's a plodder with no speed at all, and he hasn't gotten any better since last fall. He might be able to find his way into third or fourth, but that's the ceiling.
Bravazo (Luis Saez/D. Wayne Lukas): 7-1
I had a feeling he would run big in the Preakness, and he did, nearly catching Justify late. D. Wayne Lukas has pulled some Triple Crown shockers before. Can he spoil Justify's party here? Will Luis Saez employ the same tactics here and come from off the pace? Or will he lay closer as Bravazo did in the Risen Star?
He will be about half the price he was in the Preakness, so that's a drawback -- I'm guessing eventually the third choice behind Justify and Hofburg. He again figures to run well, but I can't get past the thought he is like Oxbow, who won the Preakness after a sixth-place finish in the Derby, then was a lot of people's pick to win the Belmont (where he didn't run poorly at all). I'll use him in the underneath spots in trifectas and supers, and maybe a little bit on top in some wider pick-four plays. I sense he will run well, just not win.
Hofburg (Irad Ortiz Jr/Bill Mott): 9-2
I think I've heard more people pick Hofburg to win the Belmont than Justify. He's the clear trendy upset pick, and those types usually don't find their way to the winner's circle. That's not to say he can't win. Hofburg ran a credible second to Audible in the Florida Derby, which was just his third lifetime start. He'll get some help in the pace department, but will it be enough? Deep closers typically don't win the Belmont.
Can he win? Yes, but I think he's worse from a value standpoint to win than the favorite Justify. He'll make his run and pick off as many as he can, but the question is are the pacesetters going to be softened up enough to put Hofburg in the winner's circle or settle for a minor award? I tend to lean towards the latter, but will use him in some pick fours, as that's where his best value could be.
Restoring Hope (Florent Geroux/Bob Baffert): 30-1
I had a nice Derby future on "the other Baffert." He didn't run well at all from the far outside in the slop on the Derby undercard. He's kind of been a grinder in his races, which could mean he'll appreciate the added distance. He'll stay out of Justify's way and maybe he falls into third or fourth place, so I'll use him in a few spots.
Gronkowski (Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown): 25-1
Save your money, he's got no shot at winning. But he will have a huge say on whether Justify will, as he only knows one gear: Front-end speed. Nothing about his breeding suggests he wants to go long, nor that he even wants to run on dirt. But he's been turned over to Chad Brown for a U.S. campaign, so here he is. I'll probably play a couple of tris with the all button for third, so that's the only spot I would even consider covering him. Any money bet on him to win is a waste and appreciated by those bettors who will find a little more value on horses who actually can do it.
Tenfold (Ricardo Santana/Steve Asmussen): 10-1
Like Bravazo, I thought he would run well at Pimlico, as he had every reason in the world to improve. He's lightly raced and versatile, and the added ground shouldn't affect him negatively. His trainer also won this race a couple of years ago with Creator, and his sire Curlin just missed winning this race by the shortest of margins. I see lots of things to like, and he might even be forgotten about by some. I'm using prominently in the exotics and sprinkled on top.
Vino Rosso (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher): 6-1
Outside of Justify, he has the next best top Beyer in the field by two points. He has a great one-paced, grinding running style for this distance. Like Tenfold, Curlin is his sire. He enters the Belmont possessing the recent trend for Belmont success: Running in the Derby and then skipping the Preakness. This is a tactic Todd Pletcher has mastered. In 2016, Pletcher nearly won the Belmont with Destin, who prepped in Tampa, ran in the Derby and then lost the Belmont in the final jump. Last year, Pletcher prepped Tapwrit in Tampa, ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and then won the Belmont. Palace Malice won the Belmont with the Derby/no Preakness plan. And in a sense, Pletcher did the same thing with the filly Rags to Riches in 2007. She won the Kentucky Oaks, then next started in the Belmont, beating Curlin in a great race. So the same rest theory applies.
This is Pletcher's home circuit, and his horses run better in this leg of the Triple Crown than any other. One other thing Vino Rosso has going for him: His "uncoupled" entrymate Noble Indy will make it hard on Justify on the front end, allowing Vino Rosso to pass Justify late. He's my pick, and he'll probably be a better price than one would usually expect on a Pletcher-Johnny V. runner in New York.
Noble Indy (Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher): 30-1
He's in this race for one reason: Pace, pace and more pace -- a rabbit, per se, for the other Pletcher/Repole runner Vino Rosso. Prior to Audible's withdrawal from consideration for this race, he wasn't a probable runner. But Audible's departure changed things. In 2016, a horse named Gettysburg was transferred from Pletcher to Asmussen prior to the Belmont so WinStar could enter a rabbit to help its deep closer, Creator. In the process, it also meant Destin, a Pletcher runner, would have company on the front end. Gettysburg's presence had a huge impact on the race, as he softened up Destin just enough for Creator to pass him late. Still, he's got no shot to win, and most likely little chance to even hang on for a piece of the superfecta.
Blended Citizen ( Kyle Frey/Doug O'Neill): 15-1
Blended Citizen is the only horse in the field to have run over the Belmont surface, winning the Peter Pan four weeks ago. That wasn't a very strong field, but he's run his three best career races since adding blinkers. I don't think he can win, but maybe he can finish up well and hit the board.
Nobody has beaten him yet, and if he can win for a sixth time in six lifetime starts, he'll join Seattle Slew as the only undefeated Triple Crown winners. But this is far from a walkover.
Typically in a route of this distance, post position doesn't matter much. But the rail is the last place Justify wants to be here. I expect he will be under pressure from the start, with Gronkowski and Noble Indy making sure the favorite doesn't get away with easy fractions. Justify was due for a regression in the Preakness, and indeed his 97 Beyer was the lowest of his career, granted it did come on a sloppy surface. But it sure didn't look promising to me that another quarter mile with that type of trip would land him in the winners circle at Belmont. For the optimists, one could argue Justify ran the worst race of his career, was due for a regression, got it out of his system and still won. He will certainly improve here.
Then there's the whole WinStar/common ownership debate. Justify and Audible, the third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, are both owned by the same ownership groups, but are trained by different trainers (Todd Pletcher trains Audible). Audible could have been viewed as Justify's biggest threat here. Why would they want to risk ruining their Triple Crown bid by running a horse that could beat him. And that's the key part of this to me. Running Audible, in my opinion, would mean Justify couldn't be beaten by Audible, a clear sign of confidence that Justify was a superior horse. Plus, running Audible could also help boost his value as a stallion. Not running Audible would mean there were concerns about Justify and he is vulnerable in this race, and they didn't want to potentially be the ones to ruin their own Triple Crown bid. After all, this is his third race in five weeks after entering the Derby with just three lifetime starts. The saga unfolded, and then well after the announcement Audible wouldn't run, we were told he was going to be freshened and given some rest for the summer. Of course, Audible has run all of three times since December, so that logic really doesn't sit well with me.
I also suggest reading a recent piece by Mike Watchmaker in the Daily Racing Form detailing past Triple Crown winners who also failed in the Belmont from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint. To summarize it, Justify would be bucking a lot of history if he wins here. He's been perfect so far and a win here would establish his place in history. Is he a deserving short-priced favorite? Absolutely. Is he by far the most accomplished horse in the race? Absolutely. Can he win? Absolutely. I will use him on top, but not single him. I just have this feeling that he is a very vulnerable favorite chasing history here.
Free Drop Billy (Robby Albarado/Dale Romans): 40-1
He's a plodder with no speed at all, and he hasn't gotten any better since last fall. He might be able to find his way into third or fourth, but that's the ceiling.
Bravazo (Luis Saez/D. Wayne Lukas): 7-1
I had a feeling he would run big in the Preakness, and he did, nearly catching Justify late. D. Wayne Lukas has pulled some Triple Crown shockers before. Can he spoil Justify's party here? Will Luis Saez employ the same tactics here and come from off the pace? Or will he lay closer as Bravazo did in the Risen Star?
He will be about half the price he was in the Preakness, so that's a drawback -- I'm guessing eventually the third choice behind Justify and Hofburg. He again figures to run well, but I can't get past the thought he is like Oxbow, who won the Preakness after a sixth-place finish in the Derby, then was a lot of people's pick to win the Belmont (where he didn't run poorly at all). I'll use him in the underneath spots in trifectas and supers, and maybe a little bit on top in some wider pick-four plays. I sense he will run well, just not win.
Hofburg (Irad Ortiz Jr/Bill Mott): 9-2
I think I've heard more people pick Hofburg to win the Belmont than Justify. He's the clear trendy upset pick, and those types usually don't find their way to the winner's circle. That's not to say he can't win. Hofburg ran a credible second to Audible in the Florida Derby, which was just his third lifetime start. He'll get some help in the pace department, but will it be enough? Deep closers typically don't win the Belmont.
Can he win? Yes, but I think he's worse from a value standpoint to win than the favorite Justify. He'll make his run and pick off as many as he can, but the question is are the pacesetters going to be softened up enough to put Hofburg in the winner's circle or settle for a minor award? I tend to lean towards the latter, but will use him in some pick fours, as that's where his best value could be.
Restoring Hope (Florent Geroux/Bob Baffert): 30-1
I had a nice Derby future on "the other Baffert." He didn't run well at all from the far outside in the slop on the Derby undercard. He's kind of been a grinder in his races, which could mean he'll appreciate the added distance. He'll stay out of Justify's way and maybe he falls into third or fourth place, so I'll use him in a few spots.
Gronkowski (Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown): 25-1
Save your money, he's got no shot at winning. But he will have a huge say on whether Justify will, as he only knows one gear: Front-end speed. Nothing about his breeding suggests he wants to go long, nor that he even wants to run on dirt. But he's been turned over to Chad Brown for a U.S. campaign, so here he is. I'll probably play a couple of tris with the all button for third, so that's the only spot I would even consider covering him. Any money bet on him to win is a waste and appreciated by those bettors who will find a little more value on horses who actually can do it.
Tenfold (Ricardo Santana/Steve Asmussen): 10-1
Like Bravazo, I thought he would run well at Pimlico, as he had every reason in the world to improve. He's lightly raced and versatile, and the added ground shouldn't affect him negatively. His trainer also won this race a couple of years ago with Creator, and his sire Curlin just missed winning this race by the shortest of margins. I see lots of things to like, and he might even be forgotten about by some. I'm using prominently in the exotics and sprinkled on top.
Vino Rosso (John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher): 6-1
Outside of Justify, he has the next best top Beyer in the field by two points. He has a great one-paced, grinding running style for this distance. Like Tenfold, Curlin is his sire. He enters the Belmont possessing the recent trend for Belmont success: Running in the Derby and then skipping the Preakness. This is a tactic Todd Pletcher has mastered. In 2016, Pletcher nearly won the Belmont with Destin, who prepped in Tampa, ran in the Derby and then lost the Belmont in the final jump. Last year, Pletcher prepped Tapwrit in Tampa, ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and then won the Belmont. Palace Malice won the Belmont with the Derby/no Preakness plan. And in a sense, Pletcher did the same thing with the filly Rags to Riches in 2007. She won the Kentucky Oaks, then next started in the Belmont, beating Curlin in a great race. So the same rest theory applies.
This is Pletcher's home circuit, and his horses run better in this leg of the Triple Crown than any other. One other thing Vino Rosso has going for him: His "uncoupled" entrymate Noble Indy will make it hard on Justify on the front end, allowing Vino Rosso to pass Justify late. He's my pick, and he'll probably be a better price than one would usually expect on a Pletcher-Johnny V. runner in New York.
Noble Indy (Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher): 30-1
He's in this race for one reason: Pace, pace and more pace -- a rabbit, per se, for the other Pletcher/Repole runner Vino Rosso. Prior to Audible's withdrawal from consideration for this race, he wasn't a probable runner. But Audible's departure changed things. In 2016, a horse named Gettysburg was transferred from Pletcher to Asmussen prior to the Belmont so WinStar could enter a rabbit to help its deep closer, Creator. In the process, it also meant Destin, a Pletcher runner, would have company on the front end. Gettysburg's presence had a huge impact on the race, as he softened up Destin just enough for Creator to pass him late. Still, he's got no shot to win, and most likely little chance to even hang on for a piece of the superfecta.
Blended Citizen ( Kyle Frey/Doug O'Neill): 15-1
Blended Citizen is the only horse in the field to have run over the Belmont surface, winning the Peter Pan four weeks ago. That wasn't a very strong field, but he's run his three best career races since adding blinkers. I don't think he can win, but maybe he can finish up well and hit the board.
Ways to play the race
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| $1 trifecta | 8/1-3-4-7/all | $32 |
| $1 trifecta | 8/1-3-4-7/1-2-3-4-7-8-10 | $24 |
| $1 trifecta | 3-4-7-8/1/all | $32 |
| $1 trifecta | 3-4-7-8/1/2-3-4-7-8-10 | $20 |
| $1 trifecta | 3-4-7-8/2-3-4-7-8-10/1 | $20 |
| $1 trifecta | 7-8/1/all | $16 |
| $1 trifecta | 8/1/all | $8 |
| $1 trifecta | 7-8/all/1 | $16 |
| $1 trifecta | 8/all/1 | $8 |
| $2 trifecta | 1/7-8/all | $32 |
| $2 trifecta | 1/7-8/2-3-4-5-7-8-10 | $24 |
| $2 trifecta | 1/all/7-8 | $32 |
| $2 trifecta | 1/2-3-4-5-7-8-10/7-8 | $24 |
| $2 trifecta | 1/8/all | $16 |
| $2 trifecta | 1/all/8 | $16 |
| $2 trifecta | 1/8/2-3-4-5-7-10 | $12 |
| $2 trifecta | 1/2-3-4-5-7-10/8 | $12 |
| $10 exacta | 8/1 | $10 |
| $6 exacta | 8/3-4-7 | $18 |
| $10 exacta | 1/8 | $10 |
| $6 exacta | 3-4-7/8 | $18 |
| $4 exacta box | 3-4-7-8 | $36 |
| $6 exacta | 7/1 | $6 |
| $4 exacta | 7/3-4-8 | $12 |
| $6 exacta | 1/7 | $6 |
| $4 exacta | 3-4-8/7 | $12 |
| $6 WP | 7, 8 | $24 |
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Other betting nuggets to know
- No Triple Crown winner has beaten more than seven horses in the Belmont. In 2015, American Pharoah beat seven horses, as did Seattle Slew in 1977 and Citation in 1948. On average, the 12 prior Triple Crown winners have beaten 4.6 horses in the Belmont. If there are no scratches prior to post time, Justify will have to beat nine foes on Saturday to become the 13th Triple Crown winner.
- Justify could beat more horses in his Triple Crown quest than any other Triple Crown winner. If Justify wins Saturday and there are no scratches, that would mean Justify would have beaten 35 horses in his Triple Crown quest, three more than any other Triple Crown winner (War Admiral, 32).
- After Secretariat snapped a 24-year drought without a Triple Crown winner in 1973, we saw another one relatively quickly, four years later in 1977. American Pharoah snapped a record 36-year drought in 2015. This year, Justify could give us another one three years later, after a lengthy drought ended.
- The last time a Triple Crown was on the line in a Belmont Stakes run on June 9th was 1979, when Spectacular Bid shockingly lost to Coastal at odds of 3-10. However, all Triple Crown hopes on June 9th haven't been that bad; in 1973, Secretariat posted a 31-length win in capturing the Triple Crown. Those are the only two previous times a Triple Crown has been at stake in a Belmont run on June 9.
- Each of the past five Triple Crown winners were sent off as the odds-on favorite and led gate-to-wire in the Belmont Stakes.
- Eleven of the last 14 Triple Crown races have been won by either the favorite or the second choice. In the previous 16 Triple Crown races, the favorite or second choice won only six. All told, the favorite has won 10 of the last 17 Triple Crown races. Favorites had won just 10 of the previous 32. Historically though, being the favorite hardly means a guaranteed victory. Only four times in the last 25 years has the favorite won the Belmont. In that same span, the Belmont favorite has finished sixth or worse nine times.
- Should Justify lose, odds are a longshot will beat him. Of the last six Belmont winners that thwarted a Triple Crown, four were at least 30-1 and five were at least 9-1.
- Since Spectacular Bid in 1979, there have been nine odds-on favorites in the Belmont. Only American Pharoah in 2015 won the race. Three finished second (Sunday Silence, Real Quiet and Smarty Jones), two finished third (Spectacular Bid and Pleasant Colony), two finished fourth (Alysheba and California Chrome) and Big Brown officially did not finish the race.
- Six of the last ten Belmont winners have been at least 11-1. In fact, since 2004, there have been only three winners shorter than 4-1, and seven of the last 10 Belmont Stakes were won by a horse which was the fifth choice or worse in the wagering.
- Nine of the 20 horses that failed to complete the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes were upset by a horse that they defeated in the Derby. Bravazo, Free Drop Billy, Hofburg, Noble Indy or Vino Rosso could add their name to this list.
- Ten of the last 19 Belmont Stakes have been won by a horse that started the Kentucky Derby then skipped the Preakness. And this doesn't include the filly Rags to Riches, who started in the Kentucky Oaks in 2007 and next ran in the Belmont. Even more telling, just one of these 10 finished better than fourth: Empire Maker, who was second in the 2003 Derby, then thwarted Funny Cide's Triple Crown bid in the Belmont. Free Drop Billy, Hofburg, Noble Indy and Vino Rosso fit this mold.
- Baffert can win a record 15th Triple Crown race and his second Triple Crown in the Belmont. He can join "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons as the only trainers to win the Triple Crown twice. "Sunny Jim" won the Triple Crown in 1930 with Gallant Fox and 1935 with Omaha. Baffert captured the Triple Crown in 2015 with American Pharoah.
- This is Baffert's fifth chance to win the Triple Crown. He has come up short in three of the previous four times. Only five trainers have had multiple chances to win the Triple Crown, and four of the five won at least one.
- This will be the 22nd time Baffert has had the favorite in a Triple Crown race. He's won eight of the previous 21 times, including five straight and eight of the last 13 instances. But, he is just 2-for-7 in the Belmont Stakes with the favorite.
- Pletcher's rate of success in the Belmont Stakes has been much higher than in the other two legs of the Triple Crown. Pletcher has three wins and ten total top-three finishes from 24 Belmont starters, and two wins and nine total top-three finishes from 61 starters in the other two legs.
- Mott (Hofburg) has won one Triple Crown race from 16 starters: The 2010 Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer, who was 13-1 that day. Drosselmeyer's jockey was Mike Smith, who Mott will be trying to beat and deny a Triple Crown this year.
