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Cincinnati Reds ML +105

Write Up: I find key situations where the oddsmakers know something. Today we have the St. Louis Cardinals Martinez 1.83 ERA vs Cincinnati Reds Descalfini 7.20 ERA. The average bettor who always loses will see that on paper Cardinals is the easy pick. WRONG!!! I look deep into these type of situations where the public is being fooled. I noticed that the Cincinnati Reds Team Total is set at 4 Runs with the Over Favored at -140!!!! Seems very FISHY!!! Do not be fooled by all the bad information out there. If you think your getting value then that means your on the wrong side. Jump on the Cincinnnati Reds Today and learn the only real way to profit long term in sports betting.
 

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Yeah, you and Greenbacks and a whole bunch of other "foolies" got fooled yesterday on the Reds. Good luck with this play, you're gonna need it and then some.

~T~
 
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Yesterday's Cards line was even more fishy than today at -105 with Wacha on the mound. It looked super easy to play the Cards at -105 yesterday didn't it? Sharp play would have been to play Reds -105 with Castillo? It didn't work out Wacha and the Cards never trailed and won by 2. Good luck, hope the Reds win for you although it's NEVER easy bro!
 

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Line opened at Stl -150 and gets hammered to -115

BIG FUCKIN DEAL. I stole money yesterday, ended up with the Cards +101. The books wanna play games, I got deep pockets and more than willing to gamble.

~T~
 

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This line is only a little fishy. The Reds have been a fairly potent offense of late, and maybe Carlos Martinez is not quite back on his game after a DL stint. Last start his command was off. However, Desclafini has been a train wreck, health wise, and seems like he is also trying to pitch his way back from that. The Cards are not exactly crushing the ball…So this line is not that far off.
 

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The public preceives that its hard to sweep a series. That is factored into the line. The line has been hammered down by Joe Q Public because of this situation.

There have been 138 3 game series this year with the series sweep percentage being 26.81% but if you dig a little further you will see that home teams have a 17-15 or 53.13% success rate
while road teams are 20-16 or 55.56% rate of completing the sweep. The public is looking at the 26.81% rate not what they should be looking at that's why the public believes its hard to sweep a series
 

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Do not think the "Public' drove this line down. This was sharp money.
 

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With 78% of the bets on the Cards and the line going the other way is this what you call sharp money
 

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With 78% of the bets on the Cards and the line going the other way is this what you call sharp money

Well, if 78% of the bets are on the Cards I would say that is the majority of the "Public". And with 78% of the bets on St. Louis the line dropped from -150 to -115.

So 22% of the wagers lowered the line 35 cents. Ah, yes, I would call these most likely your larger players, mostly professional who grabbed the Reds at a perceived good price.

If Joe Q Public is hammering the Reds, why are only 22% of the wagers on them then?
 

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I posted before i looked at the wagering numbers but in most cases with a sweep on the horizon Joe Q Public bets against the sweep
 

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I didn't play it either way, but the outcome so far is absurd at best. Outhitting the Reds 11-4 and down 3-5, Jesus.

~T~
 

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****There have been 138 3 game series this year with the series sweep percentage being 26.81% but if you dig a little further you will see that home teams have a 17-15 or 53.13% success rate while road teams are 20-16 or 55.56% rate of completing the sweep. The public is looking at the 26.81% rate not what they should be looking at that's why the public believes its hard to sweep a series

Nsight-stated above sweeps this year are at 26.81%. Next line Home teams sweep 53.13%, Road teams sweep 55.56. I am confused by the 3 sets of numbers. Should not both home an road add up o 26.81%? Since I am the only one with a question, I assume everybody else caught on except me. Help. Thanks.
 

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****There have been 138 3 game series this year with the series sweep percentage being 26.81% but if you dig a little further you will see that home teams have a 17-15 or 53.13% success rate while road teams are 20-16 or 55.56% rate of completing the sweep. The public is looking at the 26.81% rate not what they should be looking at that's why the public believes its hard to sweep a series

Nsight-stated above sweeps this year are at 26.81%. Next line Home teams sweep 53.13%, Road teams sweep 55.56. I am confused by the 3 sets of numbers. Should not both home an road add up o 26.81%? Since I am the only one with a question, I assume everybody else caught on except me. Help. Thanks.

There has been 138 3 game series played this year. Not all 3 game series can be sweeps if Home team wins game 1 and Road teams win game 2 no chance for sweep...Hope this helps
 

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****There have been 138 3 game series this year with the series sweep percentage being 26.81% but if you dig a little further you will see that home teams have a 17-15 or 53.13% success rate while road teams are 20-16 or 55.56% rate of completing the sweep. The public is looking at the 26.81% rate not what they should be looking at that's why the public believes its hard to sweep a series

Nsight-stated above sweeps this year are at 26.81%. Next line Home teams sweep 53.13%, Road teams sweep 55.56. I am confused by the 3 sets of numbers. Should not both home an road add up o 26.81%? Since I am the only one with a question, I assume everybody else caught on except me. Help. Thanks.



There has been 138 3 game series played and 37 of those 3 game series have been sweeps 17 by home teams and 20 by road teams 37 series sweeps in 138 series gives you 26.81%
Hope this helps
 

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