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Thread: BIZ World Cup 2018

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  1. #26  
    RX Senior richporter's Avatar
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    i honestly felt similar to how i felt having the Falcons in the last superbowl.. had Sweeden in multiple AH's thankfully my 1h wager cancelled out won i a tiny tiny amount on a live wager such a swing.. but so many things tilted me out it was 99% a penalty before anyone scored in 1h at the end prior to FK and foul they had a great scoring opporunity in attack with numbers and the idiot chose to take a shitbag shot.. then the foul absolutely no reason to foul there you have backup 2 feet behind you also why only 2 men in the wall if there was a 3man wall the shot gets blocked.. ughhh just venting
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  2. #27  
    RX Wizard
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    Quote Originally Posted by richporter View Post
    i honestly felt similar to how i felt having the Falcons in the last superbowl.. had Sweeden in multiple AH's thankfully my 1h wager cancelled out won i a tiny tiny amount on a live wager such a swing.. but so many things tilted me out it was 99% a penalty before anyone scored in 1h at the end prior to FK and foul they had a great scoring opporunity in attack with numbers and the idiot chose to take a shitbag shot.. then the foul absolutely no reason to foul there you have backup 2 feet behind you also why only 2 men in the wall if there was a 3man wall the shot gets blocked.. ughhh just venting
    + All of this. I said the same thing.

    Why take that shot?? Just control the ball and take your draw of get a better shot.
    Why foul and give up the free kick?
    Obvious foul in the box, they didn't even look at it?? They have used VAR for lesser than that.

    Combined: 5-13 (+5.63)

    Split bets are counted as 2 separate results.
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  3. #28  
    RX Wizard
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    I'm not going to post every country with odds, I'll just post those that offer value.

    Sunday, June 24

    Japan +270
    Consensus 41%, Implied 27.03%

    Making this a 2U play.
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  4. #29  
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    Monday, June 25

    7am: Russia +220
    Consensus 35%, Implied 31.25%

    Russia a play at +220 and up.


    7am: Saudi Arabia/Egypt DRAW +330
    Consensus 28%, Implied 23.26%

    DRAW a solid play at the price.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Tuesday, June 26

    7am: Peru +155
    Consensus 45%, Implied 39.22%

    If Peru comes to play, they are solid value.

    7am: France +125
    Consensus 54%, Implied 44.44%

    France is great value. 2U play with the 10% difference.

    11am: Nigeria/Argentina DRAW +320
    Consensus 29%, Implied 23.81%

    Solid value on the Draw.

    11am: Croatia +131
    Consensus 58%, Implied 43.29%

    Croatia a 2.5U play with nearly a 15% differential.
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  5. #30  
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    France and Croatia have already clinched a spot to move on.

    Does anyone have thoughts on how motivated they will be to win their games??
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  6. #31  
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    Its better to be the 1st place of the group. Denmark have a chance.
    Croatia needs minimun a draw.
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  7. #32  
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    Sunday, June 24

    Japan +270

    Making this a 2U play.

    Monday, June 25

    7am: Russia +220

    Russia a play at +220 and up.

    7am: Saudi Arabia/Egypt DRAW +330

    Tuesday, June 26

    7am: Peru +155

    7am: France +125

    France is great value. 2U play with the 10% difference.

    11am: Nigeria/Argentina DRAW +320

    11am: Croatia +131

    Croatia a 2.5U play with nearly a 15% differential.

    2-5 (-2.18)

    Combined: 6-14 (+4.45)


    Saudi/Egypt a winner until very late, same with the Nigeria/Argentina Draw. Flip those to wins and its a 8.5U swing. Couldn't catch a break late. Russia and the Saudi Arabia/Draw actually dropped out of being plays on the final line, but when posted they qualified so will count as losses. We move on to Wednesday.


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  8. #33  
    RX Wizard
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    Wednesday, June 27

    Sweden +219
    Consensus 37%, Implied 31.35%

    DRAW +237Consensus29%, Implied 29.67%Sweden a play at +203 and up.

    Sweden/Draw is Consensus 66%/Implied 61.02%, with both plays at 200+. That is also solid value.
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  9. #34  
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    Wednesday, June 27

    Sweden +219
    Consensus 37%, Implied 31.35%

    Combined: 7-14 (+6.64)

    Sweden was the clear play at the price and a fantastic winner. They went off at closer to +225/+230. The conservative approach was Win/Tie, but the only play based on numbers was the win.

    Lots of people I know tried to talk me into Germany laying multiple goals. Reason? They "had to win". I've posted this many times, and have said it often to my friends. Playing a team for this reason is the single worst reason to play a game. It doesn't matter the sport. First of all, you pay a premium because the line makers know this and jack up the lines. Secondly, these teams lose....often enough to make them poor wagers.

    Thursday numbers out in a bit, congrats to all of the Sweden +219 backers.
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  10. #35  
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    Thursday, June 28

    Panama +320
    Consensus 31%, Implied 23.81%

    Panama to win is the play. Nothing else qualified.
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  11. #36  
    RX Wizard
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    Adding....

    Panama/Tunisia DRAW +286

    Consensus 59% on the Panama/Draw combo.

    Panama currently +354, DRAW at +286 with a combined Consensus at 59%. Putting 1U on both.
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  12. #37  
    RX Wizard
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    Panama currently +354, DRAW at +286 with a combined Consensus at 59%. Putting 1U on both.

    Combined: 7-16 (+4.64)

    The following plays are to advance.

    2U Plays:
    Portugal -101
    Consensus 55%, Implied 50.25%

    Brazil -350
    Consensus 83%, Implied 77.78%

    1U Play:
    Japan +460
    Consensus 24%, Im[lied 17.86%
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  13. #38  
    RX Wizard
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    What a tough beat with Japan, up 2-0 but couldn't hold on.
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  14. #39  
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    Is Sweden a play? I'm taking them to advance at +110. Thanks for plays thus far.
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  15. #40  
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    If I,m reading the info correctly then Colombia should be the play to advance, Colombia +165
    Sorry Biz didn't mean to hijack thread. bol with your plays
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  16. #41  
    RX Local varkeyboy's Avatar
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    Colombia???
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  17. #42  
    RX Wizard
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    Friday, July 6

    Uruguay +195 To Advance
    Sweden +195 To Advance

    Consensus 38%, Implied 33.9%

    Both teams have same odds, Consensus Odds, and Implied Odds.
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  18. #43  
    RX Wizard
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    To Win World Cup

    Brazil +290

    Consensus 30%, Implied Odds 25.64%
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