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Thread: BIZ World Cup 2018

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  1. #1 BIZ World Cup 2018 
    RX Wizard
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    Saturday, June 16

    France/Australia:

    1st Goal: Kylian Mbappe +450 (1U)
    Correct Score: France 3-1 (+1100) 1/2U
    France -1.5 (-134) 2U
    OVER 2.5 (-145) 1U
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  2. #2  
    RX Senior Huego's Avatar
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    On France as well.

    good luck bud!
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  3. #3  
    Aficionado The Special One's Avatar
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    Mbappe huh? I'd like to see the lineups before I commit to player props. Just not sure about him yet, it's his first big tournament and Greizmann runs the show for them.
    Personally, I have this game capped the same way. I expect a win for you. Do your thing.
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  4. #4  
    RX Wizard
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    Forgot about this thread.

    Had Belgium TT Over 2.5 +100 (1U) and Belgium -2 (-105) 2U
    England/Tunisia UNDER 2,2.5 (-120)

    2 winners and a brutal beat.

    Here are a few plays that are overlays based on implied odds and consensus odds for Tuesday.

    Japan +383
    Implied odds are 20.7% with a consensus of 23%. Some value with Japan.
    DRAW +262
    Implied odds 27.6% with consensus at 29% small overlay.

    Japan should win or draw 52% of the time based on consensus. Playing each for 1U represents value. Play Japan +383 and DRAW +262

    Russia +113
    Russia 56% consensus with implied odds of 46.9%, solid value for the home team. Play Russia +113
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  5. #5  
    RX Wizard
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    Japan with the win, price was +450 last night before the game. Solid value and profit playing the WIN/DRAW

    Russia up 3-1 late, lets hope they hold on.
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  6. #6  
    RX Wizard
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    Solid day with the +450 Japan, less 1U DRAW, Russia +113

    +4.63
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  7. #7  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biz View Post
    Solid day with the +450 Japan, less 1U DRAW, Russia +113

    +4.63
    Very nice day! I should’ve respected Japan more, but luckily got my losses back with a big win from Russia.

    Best of luck going forward
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  8. #8  
    RX Wizard
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    Implied odds is the probability that team wins based on the odds. Consensus odds is the probability based on Power Index ratings, roster ratings, offensive and defensive ratings.

    When the Consensus odds are higher than Implied odds, we have value.

    Wednesday, June 20

    Portugal -153
    Implied Odds 60.47%, Consensus Odds 54%
    Morocco +560
    Implied Odds 15.15%, Consensus Odds 18%.
    DRAW +271
    Implied Odds 26.95%, Consensus Odds 28%

    No value on Portugal, a little on the Draw. Morocco does offer some value at +560. Morocco +560/DRAW +271 would be the play.

    Uruguay -556
    Implied Odds 84.76%, Consensus Odds 75%
    Saudi Arabia +1700
    Implied Odds 5.56%, Consensus Odds 7%
    DRAW +550
    Implied Odds 15.38%, Consensus Odds 18%

    No value on Uruguay, slight value on Saudi Arabia, DRAW offers value at +550. I would weight any wager here 25% SA +1700/75% DRAW +550.

    Spain -500
    Implied Odds 83.33%, Consensus Odds 76%
    Iran +1550
    Implied Odds 6.06%, Consensus Odds 7%
    DRAW +550
    Implied Odds 15.38%, Consensus Odds 17%

    Again the favorite is an underlay with no value. Iran a small overlay, and the DRAW offering some value. DRAW +550/Iran +1550. 80/20 split on the bet.
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  9. #9  
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    1-0 losses yesterday, Iran had a great chance to get a tie in that game.

    Thursday, June 21

    Argentina +112
    Implied Odds 47.17%, Consensus Odds 40%
    Croatia +320
    Implied Odds 23.81%, Consensus 29%
    DRAW +232
    Implied Odds 30.12%, Consensus 31%

    Croatia has solid value to win with a Consensus of 29%, Draw very slight. Combined they have a 60% chance to Win/Draw, making a bet on both a good bet. Either outcomes gets you profit. A win gets +2.2 units and a Draw gets +1.32 units.

    Taking Croatia to Win and Draw.
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  10. #10  
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    Croatia with the resounding 3-0 win. The win offered huge value at +320, one of the best value plays of the week.

    After getting their asses kicked, Argentina resorted to the bitch tactics so many from that region do when getting thumped. Kicking a ball into the head of a defender after you fouled him, shoulda been a red card. Good riddance Argentina.
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  11. #11  
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    Just did the numbers, one game has value.

    Brazil/Costa Rica: no value
    Nigeria/Iceland: Small value Iceland


    Serbia +165: Consensus Odds 30%, Implied Odds 37.74%
    Switzerland +190: Consensus Odds 42%, Implied Odds 34.48%
    DRAW +200: Consensus Odds 28%, Implied Odds 31.85%


    Switzerland is the clear value in this game at +190.


    The conservative play is Switzerland/Draw which has a Consensus 70%. The return is .9 if Switzerland wins, 1 if its a Draw.


    1U Switzerland and 1/2U Combo, or 2U and 1U. Whatever you do, I would make Switzerland the main wager for this game.


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  12. #12  
    RX Local indiana's Avatar
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    Biz...…..appreciate the break down...…....BOL with your action Fri...……..indy
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  13. #13  
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    Biz... just seeing this now and appreciate the breakdown. I'm new to this and wondered how you derived the consensus odds. Do you use this for soccer only or can this be used for other sports as well? What is your take on when this works best? Thanks... Fran
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  14. #14  
    RX Wizard
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    I got them from the projections on the fivethirtyeight.com site.

    They give a breakdown on how they get their consensus odds and it makes a lot of sense to me.

    From there you take the consensus odds, and compare them to the implied odds. When you get an overlay, you bet.

    Haven't seen this for other sports on a daily basis.

    I reference Sports Insights for NFL wagers for futures. Last year they had a mid season article on division winners, they went 4-0. Also had an article at the start of NFL playoffs that went very well. Its just a tool to find value.
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  15. #15  
    RX Wizard
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    BTW, the Fox World Cup coverage is awful.

    Rob Stone is terrible at everything he does. The "experts" on the set offer little, and seems like they were pulled off the street. The banter sounds forced and awkward. No chemistry at all.

    The game announcers aren't much better, although there was one game earlier this week with a couple guys that were really good. I believe they were not American announcers, maybe the Peru game, but outstanding.

    Fox is regularly shitty at everything. They try and be cute and funny, they come off as smarmy and square.

    BTW, that music they play in and out of commercials......terrible.

    Its just an awful production, which is too bad because this tournament can be riveting theater...despite the abundance of low scoring games so far.
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  16. #16  
    RX Wizard
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    "Switzerland is the clear value in this game at +190.

    1U Switzerland and 1/2U Combo, or 2U and 1U. Whatever you do, I would make Switzerland the main wager for this game."


    Switzerland comes through at nearly 2/1. Very entertaining game.

    I'll run the numbers for Saturday when I get a chance.
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  17. #17  
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    Thanks for the info and the play! Continued success.
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  18. #18  
    RX Wizard
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    You're welcome, much appreciated.
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  19. #19  
    RX Senior richporter's Avatar
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    idk how i missed this thread solid info
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  20. #20  
    RX Wizard
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    Saturday, June 23

    Belgium -271
    Consensus 76%, Implied 73.05%
    Tunisia +900
    Consensus 8%, Implied 10%
    DRAW +350
    Consensus 16%, Implied 22.22%

    Belgium as a -271 favorite actually offers value at that price.

    South Korea +500
    Consensus 19%, Implied 16.67%
    Mexico -142
    Consensus 55%, Implied 58.6%
    DRAW +245
    Consensus 26%, Implied 28.88

    South Korea a bit of value at +550. South Korea/DRAW combined has Consensus 45%, making a combo play of Side/Draw appealing also. With the Draw not offering value by itself, going for the upset may be the way to go. A more conservative approach would be to split the bet. Depends on your risk tolerance.

    Germany -197
    Consensus 58%, Implied 66.33%
    Sweden +550
    Consensus 18%, Implied 15.38%
    DRAW +330
    Consensus 24%, Implied 23.26

    Another under valued dog according to the Consensus odds. Sweden offers value at that price. With a 42% consensus for a combined Side/Draw, and the Draw offering value also, a split bet isn't a bad option at all.
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  21. #21  
    RX Wizard
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    Here is the record using the Consensus odds so far:

    Tuesday:
    Japan +450
    Columbia/Japan DRAW +262
    Russia +113

    2-1 (+4.63)

    Wednesday:
    These next 3 games were combo plays risking 1U per game.
    Morocco +560
    Portugal/Morocco DRAW +271
    Saudi Arabia +1700
    Saudi Arabia/Uruguay DRAW +550
    Iran +155o
    Spain/Iran DRAW +550

    0-6 (-3.00)

    Thursday:
    Croatia +320
    Argentina/Croatia DRAW +220

    1-1 (+2.2)

    Friday:
    2U Switzerland +190
    1U Serbia/Switzerland DRAW +200

    1-1 (+2.8)

    Combined: 4-9 (+6.63)

    I posted the Japan game the day before, I got +450 the day of the game. The Wednesday games were all to risk 1U per game. Thursday games were risking 1U each play, and the Switzerland game was 2U/1U.

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  22. #22  
    RX Wizard
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    Sunday, June 24

    England -439
    Consensus 76%, Implied 81.45%
    Panama +1906
    Consensus 5%, Implied 4.99%
    DRAW +520
    Consensus 19%, Implied 16.13%

    DRAW offers some value at +520 on a play that hits at almost 20%.

    Japan +230
    Consensus 41%, Implied 29.85%
    Senegal +125
    Consensus 30%, Implied 44.44%
    DRAW +215
    Consensus 29%, Implied 31.75%

    Japan is the clear value play in this game.

    Poland +250
    Consensus 29%, Implied 28.57%
    Columbia +124
    Consensus 42%, Implied 44.64%
    DRAW +247
    Consensus 29%, Implied 28.82%

    This game offers little value at all.

    Of the 3 Sunday games, Japan is the best play on the board.
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  23. #23  
    RX Wizard
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    Split the 2 early games. Belgium winning easily and South Korea losing outright.

    Sweden +600 at game time (making the Implied odds even stronger) with the DRAW at +335. Public pounding Germany creating great value. 45 minutes to go, just need Sweden to hold on and Draw at worst.


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  24. #24  
    RX Wizard
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    That didn't take long.

    1-1 beautiful goal by Germany.
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  25. #25  
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    What a brutal loss on that Draw.

    Germany pushed the attack the entire half, and just a brilliant goal off the free kick in the final minute of stoppage time. That's what champions do.

    On to tomorrow.
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