2018 NBA free-agent rankings: LeBron, PG, Boogie and more
Kevin PeltonESPN INSIDER
With LeBron James potentially changing teams this summer and Kevin Durant also likely to become a free agent, if only to get a bigger contract with the Golden State Warriors, this year's NBA free agency has plenty of star power at the top.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Outside the top handful of players, however, this year's crop doesn't look as deep as usual.
Let's rank the top 30 players on the market based on multiyear projections that use my SCHOENE projection system to forecast how free agents will perform over the next three seasons. I also factored in ESPN's real plus-minus -- weighted half as much as the box score stats -- to come up with a comprehensive estimate of how many wins above replacement player (WARP) players will provide over that span.Note that, like my draft projections, these rankings have been adjusted based on the observed replacement level at each position -- which has been much higher recently for centers than for perimeter players. That means centers rate as less valuable compared to replacement level than before, while wings rise in the rankings.
Let's rank the top 30 players on the market based on multiyear projections that use my SCHOENE projection system to forecast how free agents will perform over the next three seasons. I also factored in ESPN's real plus-minus -- weighted half as much as the box score stats -- to come up with a comprehensive estimate of how many wins above replacement player (WARP) players will provide over that span.Note that, like my draft projections, these rankings have been adjusted based on the observed replacement level at each position -- which has been much higher recently for centers than for perimeter players. That means centers rate as less valuable compared to replacement level than before, while wings rise in the rankings.
1. LeBron James
Forward
Age: 33
Player optionProjected three-year WARP: 47.8At some point, LeBron will surely feel the effects of age, and SCHOENE forecasts him gradually declining from his incredible age-33 performance. Still, James tops the group of potential 2018 free agents even in 2020-21, the final year of my projections.2017-18 RPM: +5.0 | 2017-18 WARP: 21.7<iframe class="teads-resize" style="border-bottom-color: rgb(72, 73, 74); border-bottom-style: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(72, 73, 74); border-left-style: none; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-color: rgb(72, 73, 74); border-right-style: none; border-right-width: 0px; border-top-color: rgb(72, 73, 74); border-top-style: none; border-top-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; min-height: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; width: 565px;"></iframe>
Forward
Age: 29
Player optionProjected three-year WARP: 42.8After taking a pay cut last season to help the Warriors manage their luxury-tax bill, Durant can sign a four-year deal at the max this season if he declines his player option. At 29, Durant is projected to remain about as effective over the next three seasons as he was in helping lead the Warriors to a second consecutive championship.2017-18 RPM: +3.6 | 2017-18 WARP: 14.3
3. Nikola Jokic
Center
Age: 23
Restricted
The Nuggets declined Jokic's team option over the weekend, costing them a huge amount next season but ensuring they can match any offer to their promising center as a restricted free agent.
Jokic would have made just $1.5 million in the final season of perhaps the NBA's most team-friendly contract, but if Denver had picked up his option, Jokic would have been unrestricted next summer. So the Nuggets will deal with a potential luxury-tax bill this season to avoid that risk.
Even with my adjustment to replacement level at center, Jokic still projects as an elite player. In addition to his terrific box score stats, Jokic has consistently rated well in ESPN's real plus-minus because Denver's weak defense typically gets even worse with Jokic on the bench. Add in Jokic's age and he projects ahead of much more accomplished veteran stars.
2017-18 RPM: +6.0 | 2017-18 WARP: 11.3
4. Chris Paul
Point guard
Age: 33
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 36.8
Paul's age and injury history are concerns over the life of the five-year deal the Rockets could potentially offer him this season after acquiring him via trade a year ago. Within the three-year window I'm projecting, however, he looks likely to retain most of his value. Paul's 2020-21 projection drops to only fifth among this year's free agents.
2017-18 RPM: +7.0 | 2017-18 WARP: 11.3
5. Paul George
Forward/guard
Age: 28
Player option
Projected three-year WARP: 33.3
An All-NBA third-team pick, George was productive with the Thunder despite a predictable decline in his usage rate. Having turned 28 after season's end, he should remain an All-Star-caliber player through at least the next three seasons.
2017-18 RPM: +2.9 | 2017-18 WARP: 11.3
6. Tyreke Evans
Guard
Age: 28
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 23.4
On a per-game basis, Evans ranked in the league's top 20 in WARP during the best season of his career, which was shortened to 52 games by minor injuries that were useful to a Memphis team focused on draft positioning. Stellar 40 percent 3-point shooting at 5.5 attempts per game -- both career highs -- was transformational, but Evans is at 39 percent over the past three seasons, so teams shouldn't fear much regression.
2017-18 RPM: +3.5 | 2017-18 WARP: 8.1
7. DeMarcus Cousins
Center
Age: 27
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 23.1
Cousins' projection is adjusted for the history of players performing worse than otherwise expected coming off an Achilles rupture, which ended his 2017-18 season before the All-Star break. Despite this adjustment, Cousins still figures to perform around an All-Star level the next two seasons. Similar players declined sharply at age 30, which Cousins will hit in 2020-21.
2017-18 RPM: +3.7 | 2017-18 WARP: 7.2
8. Clint Capela
Center
Age: 24
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 20.7
Nikola Jokic will almost certainly re-sign quickly with the Nuggets, leaving Capela as the best restricted free agent realistically available. Because of Houston's luxury-tax concerns, there's some chance an aggressive offer sheet could land him. More likely, the Rockets will match because Capela's ability as a roll man and switch-capable rim protector is ideal for their system at each end.
2017-18 RPM: +2.1 | 2017-18 WARP: 8.1
9. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Shooting guard
Age: 25
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 19.5
Finding the market cool last summer even after the Detroit Pistons made him an unrestricted free agent, Caldwell-Pope took a one-year deal with the Lakers to try his luck again this summer. While the tight market will work against him, Caldwell-Pope did his part, making a career-high 38 percent of his 3s to solidify himself as the top 3-and-D player on the market this summer. Caldwell-Pope is a career 35 percent 3-point shooter, so that improvement might prove unsustainable, but at 25, he has time to continue to hone his skills.
2017-18 RPM: +0.6 | 2017-18 WARP: 5.6
10. Will Barton
Guard/forward
Age: 27
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 18.3
One of the NBA's premier bench scorers, Barton averaged a career-high 15.7 points last season, fourth best among players who started fewer than half of their games and appeared in at least 10. (Barton narrowly qualified in the former category, starting 40 games.) He has become a reasonably efficient scorer in Denver, having developed into an above-average 3-point shooter, and is a passable defender as compared to many high-scoring sixth men.
2017-18 RPM: +0.7 | 2017-18 WARP: 6.6
11. Marcus Smart
Guard
Age: 24
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 18.3
Though Smart has never developed into the kind of offensive player the Celtics thought they were getting with the sixth pick in 2014, shooting 29 percent on 3s for his career and playing as often off the ball as at point guard, he has proved indispensable nonetheless because of his rugged defense.
The multiyear version of RPM puts Smart's defensive impact among the top 10 guards, which has kept him on the court in the playoffs when other non-shooters would be glued to the bench. Boston's growing payroll could make a large offer sheet to Smart painful, though he's also a candidate to take his qualifying offer and try for a big deal again next summer.
2017-18 RPM: +1.0 | 2017-18 WARP: 2.0
12. Aaron Gordon
Power forward
Age: 22
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 17.9
After an ill-fated stint at small forward, Gordon settled in at the 4 last season and averaged a career-high 17.6 points and 7.9 rebounds. The youngest player among the top 30 free agents, Gordon has plenty more upside to explore if he can extend last season's improvement from a sub-30 percent 3-point shooter to hitting an adequate 34 percent on nearly six attempts per game. Gordon also is capable of making more defensive impact than we saw last season on an Orlando team going nowhere.
2017-18 RPM: +0.7 | 2017-18 WARP: 3.4
13. Fred VanVleet
Point guard
Age: 24
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 16.7
A finalist for the NBA's Sixth Man Award, to be announced Monday night, VanVleet was the driving force in the Raptors' bench broskis emerging as the NBA's best second unit. Toronto played so well with VanVleet on the court, either running the bench at point guard or alongside starter Kyle Lowry, that RPM rated him the league's 10th-best point guard. VanVleet's size (listed at 6 feet) could be an issue as a full-time starter, but he's at least a high-level backup -- and the Raptors' tax issues could prevent them from matching a big offer to the restricted free agent.
2017-18 RPM: +3.4 | 2017-18 WARP: 4.6
14. Kyle Anderson
Forward
Age: 24
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 15.1
Quietly, the former No. 30 overall pick affectionately known as "Slow Mo" had a strong season filling in for Kawhi Leonard at small forward. Anderson made an impressive 56 percent of his 2-point attempts and is an above-average rebounder and playmaker for his position who also piles up steals and blocks. With Leonard's future in doubt, the Spurs will want to bring back Anderson on a long-term deal.
2017-18 RPM: +3.1 | 2017-18 WARP: 4.6
15. JJ Redick
Shooting guard
Age: 34
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 13.6
Redick passed on longer-term deals last summer in favor of a lavish, one-year, $23 million contract with the Sixers, helping them reach the second round of the playoffs. Now things get more complicated for Redick, who could be sacrificed if Philadelphia uses its cap space to sign a younger starter on the wing. Redick's best hope is the 76ers striking out on top free agents and hoping to try again in 2019, which could net him another large, one-year deal.
2017-18 RPM: +0.6 | 2017-18 WARP: 5.5
16. Elfrid Payton
Point guard
Age: 24
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 12.7
It's a bad sign for Payton's foray into restricted free agency that the Magic were able to get only the 41st pick in last week's draft for him at the trade deadline. Perhaps interested suitors besides Phoenix preferred to wait and make a run at him this summer without giving up anything in return. They might not have to worry about the Suns matching an offer sheet; Scott Bordow of the Arizona Republic reported over the weekend Phoenix is likely to renounce Payton's rights, which would make him an unrestricted free agent.
2017-18 RPM: -2.1 | 2017-18 WARP: 3.3
17. Isaiah Thomas
Point guard
Age: 29
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 12.6
No player has seen his value decrease more in the past year than Thomas, who played no better than replacement level after returning from a hip labrum tear and underwent season-ending surgery in March. Though Thomas should be healthy before training camp, teams can't count on getting the All-Star point guard we saw in Boston. And if Thomas isn't that player, his high-usage style and small stature make him a tough fit. As with Redick, his best hope is the Lakers missing out on top free agents and electing to bring him back on a one-year deal.
2017-18 RPM: -4.2 | 2017-18 WARP: -0.1
18. Trevor Ariza
Forward
Age: 33
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 12.3
This projection might undervalue Ariza, who was last seen helping hold Durant in check during the Western Conference finals. I'd trust him to win a game tomorrow over most of the players ahead of him on this list, but the long-term outlook for Ariza is not as positive as he heads into his mid-30s. Players similar to Ariza, including Houston predecessor Shane Battier, tended not to retain much value by their age-35 season, so a short-term contract makes sense for Ariza.
2017-18 RPM: +1.7 | 2017-18 WARP: 3.3
19. Zach LaVine
Shooting guard
Age: 23
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 11.4
Coming back from a torn ACL and playing a larger role than he had with the Minnesota Timberwolves, LaVine predictably struggled last season, making 34 percent of his 3s and a career-low 41 percent of his 2s. While we should expect LaVine to shoot better going forward, that performance might have been cause for concern in Chicago. ESPN's Nick Friedell indicated last week that the Bulls are not certain they'd match an offer sheet to the restricted free agent, which contrasts from the usual bluster we hear from teams looking to scare off suitors.
2017-18 RPM: -3.3 | 2017-18 WARP: 0.7
20. Yogi Ferrell
Point guard
Age: 25
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 11.3
Ferrell rates this high largely because of how well the Mavericks played with him on the court last season, outscoring opponents by 0.5 points per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats as compared to a minus-7.7 net rating with Ferrell on the bench.
He's a strong 3-point shooter (38 percent career) who can capably run an offense, making Ferrell a good target for teams in need of a reliable backup. Though Rick Carlisle loves playing lineups with multiple ball handlers, Dallas' drafting Jalen Brunson in the second round last week could be an indication Ferrell is expendable in the pursuit of a starting center through free agency.
2017-18 RPM: +1.1 | 2017-18 WARP: 1.5
21. DeAndre Jordan
Center
Age: 29
Player option
Projected three-year WARP: 10.7
Jordan is hit hard by the adjustment to center value, though he still rated as a solid starter last season. The other issue projecting ahead is that similar centers who have relied heavily on their athleticism, such as Tyson Chandler and Dwight Howard, have typically lost value quickly in their early 30s. I'd be reluctant to sign Jordan to a long-term contract.
2017-18 RPM: +0.6 | 2017-18 WARP: 6.9
22. Enes Kanter
Center
Age: 26
Player option
Projected three-year WARP: 9.8
Having not yet decided on his player option, Kanter would have a difficult time matching the $18.6 million he's scheduled to make on the open market despite a solid season in New York. Kanter proved more valuable than Carmelo Anthony in 2017-18, the season after they were traded for each another, averaging a double-double (14.1 points, 11.0 rebounds) and playing somewhat better defense than he had in Oklahoma City.
2017-18 RPM: -0.1 | 2017-18 WARP: 6.8
23. Rodney Hood
Shooting guard
Age: 25
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 9.1
Hood's audition for free agency during the playoffs went disastrously, as he fell out of the Cavaliers' rotation after playing ineffectually in the first two rounds and refusing to play garbage time in Game 4 of Cleveland's win over Toronto.
Hood redeemed his postseason to some extent with solid play off the bench in the last two games of the NBA Finals, and he's skilled for a 6-foot-8 wing. However, Hood's poor defensive statistics mean he has never rated as well by advanced stats as his offensive ability would suggest.
2017-18 RPM: -4.2 | 2017-18 WARP: 2.1
24. Jusuf Nurkic
Center
Age: 23
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 9.0
Nurkic's first full season in Portland was uneven. He was unable to carry over the success as a playmaker he enjoyed after the 2017 trade deadline, and his .528 true shooting percentage was poor for a starting center. The results were better on D, where Nurkic helped the Blazers protect the rim at an elite rate and post a top-10 defensive rating.
Given the limited value of centers in free agency, that performance probably won't be worth what the ultraconfident Nurkic expects. Taking the one-year qualifying offer would be a good compromise for both player and team, since Portland would save in terms of luxury tax.
2017-18 RPM: +1.8 | 2017-18 WARP: 2.3
25. Montrezl Harrell
Forward/center
Age: 24
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 8.1
Dealt to the Clippers as part of the return for Chris Paul, Harrell averaged an impressive 23.3 points per 36 minutes on 64 percent shooting. Though he has limited range, Harrell proved surprisingly capable of playing power forward alongside DeAndre Jordan, giving teams confidence he's more than just a center. He should be a prime target for teams shopping for a backup big man with their midlevel exception.
2017-18 RPM: +0.7 | 2017-18 WARP: 4.4
26. Shabazz Napier
Point guard
Age: 26
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 7.9
On his third team, Napier developed into a solid backup point guard. The Blazers particularly benefited from Napier's ability to play off the ball alongside Damian Lillard or CJ McCollum and sometimes both in tiny lineups that were the team's most successful trios. Napier made 38 percent of his 3s to space the floor for Portland's higher-scoring guards.
2017-18 RPM: +0.4 | 2017-18 WARP: 3.1
27. Wayne Ellington
Shooting guard
Age: 30
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 7.8
Playing the Ray Allen role in Erik Spoelstra's offense, Ellington enjoyed a career season in 2016-17 at age 29 and then beat it last season at 30. He ranked sixth in the NBA by making 227 3-pointers -- at a 39 percent clip. Ellington is a poor defender and doesn't offer much else besides shooting, but the attention he attracted running through screens helped the Miami offense average 3.9 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
2017-18 RPM: -0.4 | 2017-18 WARP: 5.4
28. Jabari Parker
Forward
Age: 23
Restricted
Projected three-year WARP: 7.7
Four years removed from being the No. 2 overall pick, Parker is one of the most intriguing free agents on the market. In that span, Parker overcame an ACL tear to develop into a 20-point scorer in 2016-17 only to tear the same ACL again.
In his partial season after the injury, Parker saw his offensive numbers remain relatively similar and even made a career-high 38 percent of his 3s. However, Parker -- never a good defender before the injuries -- struggled to keep up with opponents, which limited his playing time.
It sounds as if Parker and the Bucks, dealing with tax issues, might be ready for a separation. But that could depend on Parker finding a team with cap space that still views him as a long-term starter.
2017-18 RPM: -2.9 | 2017-18 WARP: 1.4
29. Joe Harris
Shooting guard
Age: 26
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 7.0
After playing sparingly in two seasons in Cleveland, Harris found an offense that valued his shooting in Brooklyn and has made 41 percent of his 3s the past two seasons as a key reserve. As compared to Wayne Ellington, Harris isn't nearly as high volume a 3-point shooter (4.6 attempts per game last season), but he offers a slightly broader skill set and is younger.
2017-18 RPM: -0.7 | 2017-18 WARP: 3.3
30. Avery Bradley
Shooting guard
Age: 27
Unrestricted
Projected three-year WARP: 6.9
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Like Isaiah Thomas, Bradley found life more difficult away from Boston. Traded to Detroit to pave the way for signing Gordon Hayward, Bradley struggled offensively because his accuracy on long 2s slipped and he failed to make much impact on defense. Bradley went to the Clippers in the Blake Griffin trade but played only six games in L.A. before abdominal surgery ended his season.Because Bradley is a weaker team defender than he is one-on-one, he has never rated particularly well by advanced stats. It's likely some team will talk itself into Bradley being a valuable role player, and that could work depending on the fit.2017-18 RPM: -2.7 | 2017-18 WARP: -1.6<strike></strike>
<strike></strike><strike></strike>Like Isaiah Thomas, Bradley found life more difficult away from Boston. Traded to Detroit to pave the way for signing Gordon Hayward, Bradley struggled offensively because his accuracy on long 2s slipped and he failed to make much impact on defense. Bradley went to the Clippers in the Blake Griffin trade but played only six games in L.A. before abdominal surgery ended his season.Because Bradley is a weaker team defender than he is one-on-one, he has never rated particularly well by advanced stats. It's likely some team will talk itself into Bradley being a valuable role player, and that could work depending on the fit.2017-18 RPM: -2.7 | 2017-18 WARP: -1.6<strike></strike>
