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Thread: The Fallacy of Preseason Rags

  1. #1 The Fallacy of Preseason Rags 
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    All of the preseason College Football Magazines are out now, and as usual, they contain a lot of words, and very little substance. They do contain some of the worst picks that I have ever seen. I will give some examples of what I consider to be nothing more than showboating to sell their rags. I will not name the rags because I could get into legal trouble.

    One of the popular rags (the one that contains over 300 pages of words and about 50 actual pages of information) picks UCLA to finish 6th in the Pac 12 West. Yes 6th, despite bragging about what a solid hire Chip Kelly was. 6th behind both Arizona State and Colorado. One has to wonder if the rag did this because UCLA plays both Pac 12 South also-rans (Arizona State and Colorado) on the road.

    Another rag predicts that 12 out of 14 Big Ten teams will be in Bowl games. The only two not to make it will be Rutgers and Illinois. They predict that 5 Big 10 teams will go 6-6. In order to accommodate this ridiculous pick, They pick BOTH Michigan State and Penn State to lose 3 Conference games. They pick Wisconsin to lose 2 conference games. While they do not pick actual game results, Wisky does play at Michigan and Penn State, Interesting.

    One rag predicts that Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa will be a 2nd String All American this season. The truth is that he could not be the 2nd string starting QB in the Pac 12, much less the entire nation. Are they trying to say that this guy is better than Khalil Tate and Jake Browning? What about Penn State QB Trace McSorley? What about UGA QB Jake Fromm? The list goes on.
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  2. #2  
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    You need to separate the wheat from the chaff. Some of them can be helpful.
    The value that I gain from a lot of the predictions in the 'wordy rags' is a good idea on how the public will think about a particular team or player. Since they are more mainstream, you can see what the talking heads will be repeating soon on the pre-season shows.

    I prefer to take a more analytical approach to my preparation by reviewing statistics and evaluating the changes to each team on my own - I mostly get this online. However, some magazines can really help in that regard. I like to read through Phil Steel's College Football preview and use it for reference throughout the season. It is quite a bit different from the mainstream.
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  3. #3  
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    I quite agree with most of what you said. I know a person who works for one of these "Publications" He claims that in November, when the sales period is over, they will determine which area sold the most magazines and favor that area in the following year's publication. That makes sense when you realize that one rag picks 12 SEC teams to go bowling and another picks 12 Big 10 teams to go bowling. Here is an example of what I mean: Both Indiana and Maryland are picked to finish at 6-6 and go to a bowl game. Now Indiana has probable away losses to Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State, plus home losses to Michigan State Iowa and Penn State. 6 losses. Maryland has probable away losses to Texas, Michigan, Iowa, and Penn State, and home losses to Michigan State and Ohio State. Like Indiana, that adds up to 6 losses. What is not considered here is that Maryland plays at Indiana and someone has to lose that game, eliminating them from bowl consideration.
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