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Thread: Thoughts Going Into 2018

  1. #1 Thoughts Going Into 2018 
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    Some thoughts going into the 2018-19 season. We have now have 4 years of the "Playoffs" under our belts. Many things have happened to surprise people. We have had teams that did not win their Conference Championships. We have had teams that did not play in their Conference Championship game. We have had undefeated teams who did not get selected to play in the Playoffs. No "Group of 5" team has ever been selected to participate in the Playoffs. While some of these things may happen again this season, there is one thing that remains a constant and will not change in 2018-19. No team has ever participated in the Playoffs with two or more season and CC game losses. Now think of the implications this means.

    Let's take 2018 favorite Alabama and Clemson to start out with. Alabama plays a very easy schedule. It would be a major upset if they were to lose a regular season game. The Clemson schedule is not that easy, but they probably will have an easier CC game than Alabama will. If you wager that both of these teams make it to the Playoffs, you will not be arrested for gambling. Neither one of these teams should lose more than 1 game.

    Now we get to the other teams looking to win their way into the Playoffs. Georgia has a very tough road to the playoffs. They play at South Carolina, Missouri (who they have trouble with), LSU, and Florida in Jacksonville. If they win the SEC East, they get to face Alabama again in a rematch of last years NC Game. It is quite possible that another loss to Alabama would eliminate Georgia from Playoff contention. Two losses would definitely eliminate them.

    The two conference favorites whose names begin with "O" also have it tough. Ohio State goes to Penn State and Michigan State, and hosts Michigan. After that comes the CC game against most likely Wisconsin, if they make it that far. You can say the same thing about Penn State, Michigan State, and Michigan. Wisconsin plays at Michigan and Penn Sate, to further muddy up the situation. I think it is quite possible for no team in the Big 10 (+4) to go undefeated or suffer just one loss. Then we have Oklahoma. Their non-con schedule is very soft, but games at TCU and West Virginia can be tough, not to mention the Red River Shoot Out vs Texas. Then they will have to play a team for the second time in the season in the Conference Championship Game. Tough, but I like their chances better than those of anyone in the Big 10.

    Finally there is Washington in the Pac 12. The Huskies are loaded with senior talent and do not play USC or Arizona in crossover games. Their entire season may come down to game 1, against Auburn. A win and Washington could run the table, and certainly should not lose more than 1 game. A loss and all bets are off. Washington probably has the best chance of any team not named Alabama or Clemson.

    The bottom line is this. Teams that want to challenge for a playoff spot KNOW that two losses burst their bubble. As the season winds down, and they get closer and closer to their goal, they will probably play it close to the vest, adopting a "let's win and get out of here" attitude. This is called fade material. Look for it in November.
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  2. #2  
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    Wisconsin is going to have a very good team this year. I'm not sure what betting angle to take w/ them, but I look for them to be (somewhat of) a darkhorse to make the playoff.

    My other guesses: Alabama, Clemson, and Oklahoma/Washington.
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  3. #3  
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    Wisky is going to have to do something it is not used to doing. That is depend on their offense. That offense returns 10 starters, but the defense, only 3. Away games include crossover games at Michigan and Penn State. They also must guard against upsets at Iowa and at Northwestern. Escaping that schedule with less than two losses is a tough order.
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