World Series Champ Info

Love breaking down numbers ...

These are just fun facts guys ... take it or leave it ...

Last 18 Years

Ninth Inning Only Stats in Both Batting Avg and ERA

56 % ..10/18 Champs since 2000 had at least one Top 10 Ranking in either Batting Avg or ERA in the NINTH INNING ONLY

Contenders this year that are in the 56 % Shot at Winning it all ...

Atlanta
Oakland
Houston
Cubs
St Louis
Nyy

No Team Won the World Series that had higher than a 23 Ranking in either category .... Batting Avg or Era in the ninth inning ..

If tailing this angle ... Toss from Winning World Series / Contenders

Cleveland
Arizona
Wash
LAD


33 % .. 6/18 Champs had Both Top 10 Ranks in BA and ERA in Ninth Inning

Contenders that qualify here

Boston ..Barely ... Batting Avg # 4 Rank and ERA # 10 Rank in only Ninth Inning

Milwaukee ... Batting Avg # 6 ...and ERA # 3 .... very impressive here ...nice long shot to Win it all ...imo


May add a few more angles to this thread ....

Last 19 Years World Series Champions

Only 1 Champ out of 19 had a Team ERA in the Ninth Inning of over 3.81 ... 1/19 ....Not Good ...as far as chances to win it all ...

This Year's Contending Teams so far over the 3.81 ERA in Ninth Inning that fall into the 1/19 Category

Atlanta ...3.89

Colorado.... 4.52

Philly ......4.66

Cleveland ....5.88..............if they get Miller back ....this number will change ....


The Highest Ninth Inning ERA Last 19 Year's to Win the World Series .... 2003 Florida ..Era 4.39



Will keep breaking down stats .... suggestions ???

Runner-Ups ...Last 19 Years Team Era in Ninth Inning Only

4/19 had a Team ERA of over 4.00 in the 9th Inning ... the highest Runner-up Team ERA 2009 Philly 4.72




In Summary

Last 19 Years 5 Teams out of a Possible 38 have reached the World Series with a Team Era in the 9th Inning of 4.00 or more with the Highest ERA being Runner-Up Philly at 4.72 ..

Percentage wise ... with Teams over the 4.00 Era in Ninth Inning ...those teams have only a 13 % chance of Reaching the World Series ..


Last 14 Years

No Team Has Won The World Series with a Ninth Inning Team ERA of over 3.72 !!!!!!!

but


In those 14 Years ....4 Teams Reached the World series with a Team Era in Ninth Inning over the 3.72 and over 4.00 actually ....


So if we are going with the Last 14 Years only .... Contenders this Year that have over the Ninth Inning Team Era of 3.72 and would Toss from Winning the World Series Only .... are as follows

Pitt .... 3.77

Atlanta ...3.89

Colorado.... 4.52

Philly ......4.66

Cleveland ....5.88.



The Only Team you would eliminate from reaching the WS would be Cleveland .....

Luck Ranks and Rating have been around for just that past 6 Years ... 2012 to 2017 ....

The Lowest Luck Rating of any of the Past 6 Champs was in 2016 Cubs 2.58 ....

The Higher Rating the Better ....

Here is the breakdown Last 6 Years of Luck Ranks / Ratings

2012 SF Ranked #2 / Rating 9.12

2013 Boston Ranked #5 / Rating 3.86

2014 SF Ranked #6 / Rating 3.80

2015 KC Ranked #1 / Rating10.90

2016 Cubs Ranked #7 / Rating 2.58

2017 Houston Ranked #4 / Rating 5.55

So there has been only 1 Team that had lower rating than 3.80 ... Cubs in 2016 ( 2.58 )

These are the Contenders this Year above 2.58 Rating

Milw 2.67
Pitt 2.68
Colo 2.77
Atlanta 4.72
Yanks 5.49
Philly 6.41
Oak 7.78
Sea 8.82
Bos 8.88 .. ( Best )

Explanation of " Luck "

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/luck/

Update

Last 19 Years World Series Champions

Only 1 Champ out of 19 had a Team ERA in the Ninth Inning of over 3.81 ... 1/19 ....Not Good ...as far as chances to win it all ...

This Year's Contending Teams so far over the 3.81 ERA in Ninth Inning that fall into the 1/19 Category

UPDATED NUMBERS AS OF 8/6

Atlanta ...3.92

Houston 4.01

Philly ......4.48

Colorado.... 4.67

Cleveland ....5.53


The Highest Ninth Inning ERA Last 19 Year's to Win the World Series .... 2003 Florida ..Era 4.39...

So that would eliminate .... FROM WINNING THE WORLD SERIES

Philly .....Colo ....Cleve


Runner-Ups ...Last 19 Years Team Era in Ninth Inning Only

4/19 had a Team ERA of over 4.00 in the 9th Inning ... the highest Runner-up Team ERA 2009 Philly 4.72

The only team you would eliminate from reaching the World Series would be Cleveland


Last 14 Years

No Team Has Won The World Series with a Ninth Inning Team ERA of over 3.72 !!!!!!!

but


In those 14 Years ....4 Teams Reached the World series with a Team Era in Ninth Inning over the 3.72 and over 4.00 actually ....


So if we are going with the Last 14 Years only .... Contenders this Year that have over the Ninth Inning Team Era of 3.72 and would Toss from Winning the World Series Only .... are as follows


Atlanta ...3.92... can reach WS just not win

Houston 4.01... can reach WS just not win

Philly ......4.48... can reach WS just not win

Colorado.... 4.67... can reach WS just not win

Cleveland ....5.53... WILL NOT REACH WS



The Only Team you would eliminate from reaching the WS would be Cleveland .....

Kaboom said:

Luck Ranks and Rating have been around for just that past 6 Years ... 2012 to 2017 ....

The Lowest Luck Rating of any of the Past 6 Champs was in 2016 Cubs 2.58 ....

The Higher Rating the Better ....

Here is the breakdown Last 6 Years of Luck Ranks / Ratings

2012 SF Ranked #2 / Rating 9.12

2013 Boston Ranked #5 / Rating 3.86

2014 SF Ranked #6 / Rating 3.80

2015 KC Ranked #1 / Rating10.90

2016 Cubs Ranked #7 / Rating 2.58

2017 Houston Ranked #4 / Rating 5.55

So there has been only 1 Team that had lower rating than 3.80 ... Cubs in 2016 ( 2.58 )

These are the Contenders this Year above 2.58 Rating

Milw 2.67
Pitt 2.68
Colo 2.77
Atlanta 4.72
Yanks 5.49
Philly 6.41
Oak 7.78
Sea 8.82
Bos 8.88 .. ( Best )

Explanation of " Luck "

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/luck/

Click to expand...

Luck Ranks and Rating have been around for just that past 6 Years ... 2012 to 2017 ....

The Lowest Luck Rating of any of the Past 6 Champs was in 2016 Cubs 2.58 ....

The Higher Rating the Better ....

Here is the breakdown Last 6 Years of Luck Ranks / Ratings

2012 SF Ranked #2 / Rating 9.12

2013 Boston Ranked #5 / Rating 3.86

2014 SF Ranked #6 / Rating 3.80

2015 KC Ranked #1 / Rating10.90

2016 Cubs Ranked #7 / Rating 2.58

2017 Houston Ranked #4 / Rating 5.55

So there has been only 1 Team that had lower rating than 3.80 ... Cubs in 2016 ( 2.58 )

These are the Contenders this Year above 2.58 Rating

Milw 2.67
Pitt 2.68
Colo 2.77
Atlanta 4.72
Yanks 5.49
Philly 6.41
Oak 7.78
Sea 8.82
Bos 8.88 .. ( Best )


UPDATED 8/6


Luck Ranks and Rating have been around for just that past 6 Years ... 2012 to 2017 ....

The Lowest Luck Rating of any of the Past 6 Champs was in 2016 Cubs 2.58 ....

The Higher Rating the Better ....

Here is the breakdown Last 6 Years of Luck Ranks / Ratings

2012 SF Ranked #2 / Rating 9.12

2013 Boston Ranked #5 / Rating 3.86

2014 SF Ranked #6 / Rating 3.80

2015 KC Ranked #1 / Rating10.90

2016 Cubs Ranked #7 / Rating 2.58

2017 Houston Ranked #4 / Rating 5.55

So there has been only 1 Team that had lower rating than 3.80 ... Cubs in 2016 ( 2.58 )

These are the Contenders this Year above 2.58 Rating


Yanks 5.49.....now 3.28 .... slumping without Judge
Pitt 2.68........now 3.73
Colo 2.77......now 3.96
Milw 2.67.... now 4.73
Atlanta 4.72...now 5.57
Philly 6.41......now 7.07
Sea 8.82......now 7.91
Oak 7.78.......now 10.12
Bos 8.88 .....now 10.24 ( Best )


Realize only 6 Years worth of Data ... if considering the Angle ... Contenders below the Luck Rating of 2.58 you would eliminate from Winning the World Series

SF 1.42
Arizona 0.79
Houston Minus - 0.14
Cubs Minus 0.22
St Louis Minus - 0.99
Cleveland Minus - 3.40
LAD Minus - 4.23 .... but they have Machado now
Wash Minus - 5.49


Adding ... Runner-Ups ... Teams that reach WS ...just not win ...looking for ratings above 2.58

2017 ...LAD ..7.23
2016 ...Cleve 6.37
2015 ...NYM 3.75
2014 ...KC 9.14
2013...St Louis 2.11
2012 ... Det 2.43



Last 6 Years only

No team has reached World series with a Luck Rating of below 2.11

So if tailing this Angle ... Toss these teams from reaching the World Series

SF 1.42
Arizona 0.79
Houston Minus - 0.14
Cubs Minus 0.22
St Louis Minus - 0.99
Cleveland Minus - 3.40
LAD Minus - 4.23 .... but they have Machado now
Wash Minus - 5.49