CFP final 4- these 10 teams or the field?

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So on the first Sunday in December, the CFP committee will choose the final 4 for the CFP.

Here is a list of 10 teams who have a good chance to get in.

SEC- Bama, UGA, Auburn
Big 10- Ohio State, Penn State, Wisky
ACC- Clemson, Miami
Pac12- Wash
Big 12- Oklahoma

My question is that if you had to bet even money on the 4 teams to get into the CFP, would you take 4 teams from this list or the field? And if we're picking a team from the field, who are you looking at?
 

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IMO, there are two teams with NO chance and they are Auburn and Wisconsin. They will each lose multiple games. Miami is a close third in that category. Certainly 'Bama and Clemson should be the obvious top two. They may not lose a game until they play each other. If Washington defeats Auburn, they have a great chance of going in as a 0-1 loss Pac 12 Champion. That leaves OU and the two Big 10 teams to battle it out for the final spot. Even money would be a foolish wager, and no one in here would be that foolish, but gun to head, I would pick from that list. Who else is there?
 
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My local newspaper had a breakdown of Lindy’s, street & smiths, athlon, and Phil Steele’s top 25, CFP predictions, and championship predictions.

All 4 had clemson vs Bama in finals

all 4 had Ohio state in CFP
3 publications had Georgia in CFP, 1 had Washington (Steele)
 

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absolutely take the field. with injuries, the outside chance at a mid major or even 1 team being a breakthrough you could win. of course thats all the powerhouses but there is always a chance and you only need a slip up here or there. Oregon is a team i like in the pac-12 which i think could disrupt the playoff. i dont see washington, auburn, penn state, miami or wisconsin making the playoff this year. they may tease the beginning of the season but all of them are flawed enough to lose in the regular season and not even make the conference championship game.
clemson and alabama clearly are the most talented. oklahoma is the clear favorite in the big 12 but i dont trust them. i dont think they have the same success this year as they did last year even though their schedule appears easy.
 
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Just read that in the last 3 years of the CFP, there have been 4 teams ranked 12th or lower in the preseason AP Poll to recah the playoffs

17- UGA (ranked 15th)
16- Wash (ranked 14th)
15- Clemson (12th)
15- Oklahoma (19th)

So 4 teams ranked in the top 11 made the CFP and 4 teams ranked 12th or lower made the CFP.

AP poll comes out on Aug 20
 
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[FONT=&quot]
1
AlabamaCrimsonTide.png
Alabama (42)
SEC
Record: 13-1

PV Rank
1

Points
1,505

2
clemson-logo.png
Clemson (18)
ACC
Record: 12-2

4
1,476
3
GeorgiaBulldogs_1.png
Georgia
SEC
Record: 13-2

2
1,350
4
WisconsinBadgers_0.png
Wisconsin (1)
Big Ten
Record: 13-1

7
1,271
5
2013_Ohio_State_Buckeyes_logo.svg_.png
Ohio State
Big Ten
Record: 12-2

5
1,256
6
washington-huskies_1.png
Washington
Pac-12
Record: 10-3

16
1,215
7
oklahoma-0.png
Oklahoma
Big 12
Record: 12-2

3
1,173
8
Miami_logo_0.png
Miami (FL)
ACC
Record: 10-3

13
1,027
9
Auburn.png
Auburn
SEC
Record: 10-4

10
1,013
10
PennStateNittanyLions_0.png
Penn State
Big Ten
Record: 11-2

8
1,012
11
MSU.png
Michigan State
Big Ten
Record: 10-3

15
877
12
notredame_logo.png
Notre Dame
Division I FBS Independents
Record: 10-3

11
804
13
stanford.png
Stanford
Pac-12
Record: 9-5

20
778
14
Block-M---Maize.png
Michigan
Big Ten
Record: 8-5

-
773
15
Southern%20California%20Trojans_1.png
USC
Pac-12
Record: 11-3

12
543
16
TCULogo_0.png
TCU
Big 12
Record: 11-3

9
533
17
westvirginia_0_0.png
West Virginia
Big 12
Record: 7-6

-
511
18
missstate.png
Mississippi State
SEC
Record: 9-4

19
450
19
FSU_Seminoles_logo_0.png
Florida State
ACC
Record: 7-6

-
384
20
virginia_tech.png
Virginia Tech
ACC
Record: 9-4

24
351
21
ucfprimary.png
UCF
The American
Record: 13-0

6
312
22
boisestate_0.png
Boise State
Mountain West
Record: 11-3

22
292
23
texas_0.png
Texas
Big 12
Record: 7-6

-
216
24
Oregon-Ducks-logo.png
Oregon
Pac-12
Record: 7-6

-
148
25
LSU_0.png
LSU
SEC
Record: 9-4

18
106

Others receiving votes:South Carolina 96, Florida 68, Utah 60, Oklahoma St. 51, FAU 38, Arizona 28, NC State 22, Texas A&M 21, Boston College 18, Northwestern 13, Kansas St. 10, Iowa St. 8, Houston 6, Memphis 3, Troy 2, Iowa 2, Kentucky 1, Arkansas St. 1, Fresno St. 1.


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[h=2]PRE-SEASON[/h]Poll released: Aug 20
[h=4]BY WEEK[/h]
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[h=2]POLL METHODOLOGY[/h]The AP Top 25 is determined by a simple points system based on how each voter ranks college football's best teams. A team receives 25 points for each first place vote, 24 for second place and so on through to the 25th team, which receives one point. The rankings are set by listing the teams' point totals from highest to lowest. The mathematical formula is the same as the one used for the AP Pro 32 rankings and the AP Top 25 rankings for men's and women's basketball.

[h=2]HISTORY OF THE POLL[/h]The Associated Press began its college football poll on Oct. 19, 1936, and it is now the longest-running poll of those that award national titles at the end of the season. The preseason poll was started in 1950. A panel of 61 sports writers and broadcasters from around the country votes on the poll weekly. All of the voters have an extensive background in covering college football. Alabama's ten AP national titles lead the way, with Notre Dame sitting second with eight. Oklahoma has seven, while Miami and Southern California have five each. Each team's ranking will be mentioned in AP stories throughout the preseason and the regular season, along with a link to the Top 25: collegefootball.ap.org/poll


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If you had to pick a team ranked 12th or lower to make the CFP, who would it be?

I'll go with Miss St
 
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Another interesting stat is that in the last 7 years, 11 different top 10 teams finished unranked (there has been at least 1 in the past 7 years).

Who will be the team in 2018?

I'll go with Oklahoma
 

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IMO, there are two teams with NO chance and they are Auburn and Wisconsin. They will each lose multiple games. Miami is a close third in that category. Certainly 'Bama and Clemson should be the obvious top two. They may not lose a game until they play each other. If Washington defeats Auburn, they have a great chance of going in as a 0-1 loss Pac 12 Champion. That leaves OU and the two Big 10 teams to battle it out for the final spot. Even money would be a foolish wager, and no one in here would be that foolish, but gun to head, I would pick from that list. Who else is there?

There is a very good chance Wisconsin doesn't lose multiple games. They don't play Ohio or MSU this year. Miami has possibly the weakest schedule in the country. The only teams they play that are even ranked are LSU (25) and FSU (19) and neither are road games.
 

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4 from that list look good

GL
 
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Wanted to bump this as ND and Mich started the season lower than the 11th ranked team and both teams have a nice shot at making the CFP
 
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Another interesting stat is that in the last 7 years, 11 different top 10 teams finished unranked (there has been at least 1 in the past 7 years).

Who will be the team in 2018?

I'll go with Oklahoma

This season we have Wisky, Auburn, and Miami
 
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Just read that in the last 3 years of the CFP, there have been 4 teams ranked 12th or lower in the preseason AP Poll to recah the playoffs

17- UGA (ranked 15th)
16- Wash (ranked 14th)
15- Clemson (12th)
15- Oklahoma (19th)

So 4 teams ranked in the top 11 made the CFP and 4 teams ranked 12th or lower made the CFP.

AP poll comes out on Aug 20

Looks like 3 of the 4 were ranked in top 11
ND ranked 12th is getting in
 

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