[FONT="]Republicans finding that fascism and treachery aren't polling well[/FONT]
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[FONT="][FONT="]Dartagnan [/FONT] [/FONT]
Community
Saturday July 14, 2018 · 4:43 PM PDT
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Harry Enten, formerly a Senior Political Analyst at fivethirtyeight.com and now writing for CNN, picks up an interesting data point that may have been overlooked. He notes that the difficulty in predicting control of the House of Representatives lies in the fact that individual districts generally aren’t polled, except by partisan groups. When a Democratic or Republican pollster finds a result that he/she likes, they trumpet the poll with a great deal of fanfare and it finds its way to the usual suspects for dissemination to the general public. Otherwise, the poll gets deep-sixed and never sees the light of day. In this way such polls can serve as a barometer of the public mood, even if they are performed by partisan sources.
Here’s what’s been happening:
Four internal House polls released this week by groups aligned with Democratic or liberal causes. Conservative and Republican groups released no internal House polls this week. This is part of a pattern seen this year with left-wing groups putting out 93% of the partisan polls collected by FiveThirtyEight compared to only 7% by right-wing groups.
He notes that polls from Democrats and more left-wing groups typically exceed those put out by right-wing sources. But the variance this year is extraordinary and reminiscent of the polls prior to Democrats’ 2006 sweep of the House during the Bush administration. That year, Democrats were energized by Bush’s incompetence in Iraq and mishandling of the Hurricane Katrina disaster. During that cycle 77 percent of the released polls were done by Democratic leaning groups. In 2010, Democratic groups released a paltry 35 percent of the polls out there—with electoral results to match.
The Trump administration’s embrace of fascism, child abduction, callous indifference to the needs of ordinary Americans and corruption on a truly mammoth scale has rendered the Bush era almost a wistful memory for most Americans.
Enten concedes it is conceivable that the right-leaning groups “may be withholding good-looking internal polls for some unknown reason.” Yes, that is conceivable, just as an asteroid striking the Earth tomorrow is conceivable. But when was the last time a Republican polling outfit controlled its urge to blather about how the GOP was going to “stick it” to the “libs?” That’s how eyeballs are attracted. It’s eye-candy for salivating wingnuts who troll Fox News all day long. It’s their bread and butter. And of course there’s also the performance this year by Democrats in special elections.
The reality is they got nuthin.’
Enten allows for some “reversion to the mean” by November 6. But we are under 120 days out now. Trump’s trade war is turning into an economic boondoggle, and the bouncing stock market is not having its usual salutary “feel-good” effect on folks. Indictments are falling like dominoes as more and more Republicans are implicated as Russian assets, while Trump continues making good on his deal with Putin to sell American interests down the river. The GOP tax scam sank like a stone with the public. The Supreme Court is portending a disastrous reduction in Americans’ rights that could endure for generations, and people are scared about the future, with good reason, some for the first time in their lives.
Democrats will “crawl over glass” to vote, but there is no sign of “enthusiasm” on the Republican side.
Their silence speaks volumes.
[FONT="]
[FONT="][FONT="]Dartagnan [/FONT] [/FONT]
Community
Saturday July 14, 2018 · 4:43 PM PDT
[/FONT]
Harry Enten, formerly a Senior Political Analyst at fivethirtyeight.com and now writing for CNN, picks up an interesting data point that may have been overlooked. He notes that the difficulty in predicting control of the House of Representatives lies in the fact that individual districts generally aren’t polled, except by partisan groups. When a Democratic or Republican pollster finds a result that he/she likes, they trumpet the poll with a great deal of fanfare and it finds its way to the usual suspects for dissemination to the general public. Otherwise, the poll gets deep-sixed and never sees the light of day. In this way such polls can serve as a barometer of the public mood, even if they are performed by partisan sources.
Here’s what’s been happening:
Four internal House polls released this week by groups aligned with Democratic or liberal causes. Conservative and Republican groups released no internal House polls this week. This is part of a pattern seen this year with left-wing groups putting out 93% of the partisan polls collected by FiveThirtyEight compared to only 7% by right-wing groups.
He notes that polls from Democrats and more left-wing groups typically exceed those put out by right-wing sources. But the variance this year is extraordinary and reminiscent of the polls prior to Democrats’ 2006 sweep of the House during the Bush administration. That year, Democrats were energized by Bush’s incompetence in Iraq and mishandling of the Hurricane Katrina disaster. During that cycle 77 percent of the released polls were done by Democratic leaning groups. In 2010, Democratic groups released a paltry 35 percent of the polls out there—with electoral results to match.
The Trump administration’s embrace of fascism, child abduction, callous indifference to the needs of ordinary Americans and corruption on a truly mammoth scale has rendered the Bush era almost a wistful memory for most Americans.
Enten concedes it is conceivable that the right-leaning groups “may be withholding good-looking internal polls for some unknown reason.” Yes, that is conceivable, just as an asteroid striking the Earth tomorrow is conceivable. But when was the last time a Republican polling outfit controlled its urge to blather about how the GOP was going to “stick it” to the “libs?” That’s how eyeballs are attracted. It’s eye-candy for salivating wingnuts who troll Fox News all day long. It’s their bread and butter. And of course there’s also the performance this year by Democrats in special elections.
The reality is they got nuthin.’
Enten allows for some “reversion to the mean” by November 6. But we are under 120 days out now. Trump’s trade war is turning into an economic boondoggle, and the bouncing stock market is not having its usual salutary “feel-good” effect on folks. Indictments are falling like dominoes as more and more Republicans are implicated as Russian assets, while Trump continues making good on his deal with Putin to sell American interests down the river. The GOP tax scam sank like a stone with the public. The Supreme Court is portending a disastrous reduction in Americans’ rights that could endure for generations, and people are scared about the future, with good reason, some for the first time in their lives.
Democrats will “crawl over glass” to vote, but there is no sign of “enthusiasm” on the Republican side.
Their silence speaks volumes.