Best bets for the 2018 Open Championship
Chris Fallica
ESPN INSIDER
The golf world turns to Carnoustie Golf Links this weekend for the 147th edition of The Open. Many top golfers enter in great form as they take on the dry links-style course for the third major of the season.
Here are the best bets for The Open.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of July 17.
Here are the best bets for The Open.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of July 17.
Top picks
Marc Leishman (40-1)
Leishman was eaten up on the weekend (like nearly everyone else) at Shinnecock, but he has thrived at The Open. He has three top sixes in the past four years and held the lead on 71st hole at St. Andrews in 2015 before losing to Zach Johnson in a playoff. Last seen finishing T13 at Avenel, Leishman has the experience and game to take his name off the list of players who have not won a major, and he comes at a nice price.
Tommy Fleetwood (20-1)
Fleetwood shot a course-record 63 here in October at the Dunhill Links Championship. It's a question of when, not if, with Fleetwood in regards to winning a major. He might have already gotten one if he didn't get caught in the ridiculousness of playing later in the day on Saturday at Shinnecock. But he handled it with class and went out and nearly shot 62 on Sunday. There was so much hype and pressure on his home course at Birkdale last year after his fourth place finish in the U.S. Open, and after an opening-round 76, he played well the rest of the way. Would I like the price to be better? Sure. But that's the only negative here.
Rory McIlroy (16-1)
I wasn't planning on making McIlroy one of my top picks, but then you remember his past three Opens: Win, T5 and T4 (DNP in 2015). He often doesn't enter The Open in great form, as is once again the case this year (cut at U.S. Open and The Players, T28 in Irish Open). In the past three Opens that McIlroy has played, he is a combined 26-under par, two shots better than anyone else in those three years. He was also Top Amateur at Carnoustie in 2007. It's all about the start for Rory, as he's broken par just once in the first round over the past seven majors. But his track record in this event makes him a contender.
Brooks Koepka (20-1)
He's healthy, and in his past four starts he has won the U.S. Open and finished second in Fort Worth. He's a two-time U.S. Open champion, but it was The Open which he appeared on the cusp of winning first. He was sixth here last year and 10th in 2015 (DNP in 2016). That trajectory looks a lot like his T4-T18-T13 run at the U.S. Open before his 2017 win at Erin Hills. His experience playing in Europe will suit him well, as should the course setup. He's been outside the top 20 once in the past eleven majors (T21 in the 2016 Masters), and in that span, he's got two wins and four other top-10 finishes. He's got a big shot and might be a tad overlooked as he was in his attempt to repeat as U.S. Open champion.
Ian Poulter (50-1)
His game is in form with five top 10s in 17 starts this year and four top-eight finishes in his past 11 starts. Like Leishman, he was victim to the course setup on the weekend at Shinnecock. He was right there at Muirfield in 2013, and his game has circled back, climbing back into the top 30. Is the 42-year-old Poulter the "older" player who emerges this week to win his first major? If you're into numerical parallels, Darren Clarke won his first major at age 42 in his 54th major and 20th Open. This is Poulter's 58th major and 17th Open. And five of the past seven Open winners were 39 or older, with four of them 40 or older. There are a lot of things to like this week surrounding Poulter, both with historical trends and his game.
Tyrrell Hatton (40-1)
Hatton played well in the Scottish Open with a lot going on in his personal life. 2017 was a lost year in majors with four missed cuts, but Hatton grinded his way to a sixth-place finish at Shinnecock and nearly put a WGC win on his resume in Mexico this year. At Troon two years ago, he finished in a tie for fifth when Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson were playing a different course than everyone else. With three straight top-20 finishes, including two top-10s, maybe this is the time Hatton breaks through, as his game and historical indicators seem to point up.
Leishman was eaten up on the weekend (like nearly everyone else) at Shinnecock, but he has thrived at The Open. He has three top sixes in the past four years and held the lead on 71st hole at St. Andrews in 2015 before losing to Zach Johnson in a playoff. Last seen finishing T13 at Avenel, Leishman has the experience and game to take his name off the list of players who have not won a major, and he comes at a nice price.
Tommy Fleetwood (20-1)
Fleetwood shot a course-record 63 here in October at the Dunhill Links Championship. It's a question of when, not if, with Fleetwood in regards to winning a major. He might have already gotten one if he didn't get caught in the ridiculousness of playing later in the day on Saturday at Shinnecock. But he handled it with class and went out and nearly shot 62 on Sunday. There was so much hype and pressure on his home course at Birkdale last year after his fourth place finish in the U.S. Open, and after an opening-round 76, he played well the rest of the way. Would I like the price to be better? Sure. But that's the only negative here.
Rory McIlroy (16-1)
I wasn't planning on making McIlroy one of my top picks, but then you remember his past three Opens: Win, T5 and T4 (DNP in 2015). He often doesn't enter The Open in great form, as is once again the case this year (cut at U.S. Open and The Players, T28 in Irish Open). In the past three Opens that McIlroy has played, he is a combined 26-under par, two shots better than anyone else in those three years. He was also Top Amateur at Carnoustie in 2007. It's all about the start for Rory, as he's broken par just once in the first round over the past seven majors. But his track record in this event makes him a contender.
Brooks Koepka (20-1)
He's healthy, and in his past four starts he has won the U.S. Open and finished second in Fort Worth. He's a two-time U.S. Open champion, but it was The Open which he appeared on the cusp of winning first. He was sixth here last year and 10th in 2015 (DNP in 2016). That trajectory looks a lot like his T4-T18-T13 run at the U.S. Open before his 2017 win at Erin Hills. His experience playing in Europe will suit him well, as should the course setup. He's been outside the top 20 once in the past eleven majors (T21 in the 2016 Masters), and in that span, he's got two wins and four other top-10 finishes. He's got a big shot and might be a tad overlooked as he was in his attempt to repeat as U.S. Open champion.
Ian Poulter (50-1)
His game is in form with five top 10s in 17 starts this year and four top-eight finishes in his past 11 starts. Like Leishman, he was victim to the course setup on the weekend at Shinnecock. He was right there at Muirfield in 2013, and his game has circled back, climbing back into the top 30. Is the 42-year-old Poulter the "older" player who emerges this week to win his first major? If you're into numerical parallels, Darren Clarke won his first major at age 42 in his 54th major and 20th Open. This is Poulter's 58th major and 17th Open. And five of the past seven Open winners were 39 or older, with four of them 40 or older. There are a lot of things to like this week surrounding Poulter, both with historical trends and his game.
Tyrrell Hatton (40-1)
Hatton played well in the Scottish Open with a lot going on in his personal life. 2017 was a lost year in majors with four missed cuts, but Hatton grinded his way to a sixth-place finish at Shinnecock and nearly put a WGC win on his resume in Mexico this year. At Troon two years ago, he finished in a tie for fifth when Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson were playing a different course than everyone else. With three straight top-20 finishes, including two top-10s, maybe this is the time Hatton breaks through, as his game and historical indicators seem to point up.
Some other notable names
Rickie Fowler (16-1)
Zero top-20 finishes at The Open for Fowler since his runner-up finish to McIlroy at Royal Liverpool, but note that none of the past nine Open winners finished better than 30th the year before they won. He's been in the top five in three of the past five majors and again played well in Scotland. Maybe this will be the event he breaks through, but I think he's on the fringes of victory again. He makes for a good bet in the top-10 markets.
Henrik Stenson (25-1)
The injury which kept him out of Scottish Open last week worries me a bit, but it's clear this event suits him quite well. In the past five years, nobody is better to par than Stenson (a combined 29-under beginning with the 2013 Open at Muirfield). If he's healthy, he moves to the list of best bets. Until then, watch the practice rounds and event coverage for news on his health.
Tiger Woods (25-1)
Woods hasn't played The Open since 2015 at St. Andrews and hasn't made the cut since 2014 at Royal Liverpool. He may make the cut here, but he's not a factor to win, just as was the case in the U.S. Open. Look for value against him in head-to-heads and yes/no props to finish in the top 10/20. Woods' last top-10 finish in a major came five years ago at Muirfield.
Jason Day (30-1)
Outside of 2015 at St. Andrews, Day really hasn't been much of a threat to win this major. In non-St. Andrews Opens, Day has finished T27, T22, T58, T32 and T30, and has broken par in just four of 20 rounds (he's broken par in six of eight rounds at St. Andrews). Like Tiger, he might be a guy to fade this week in some head-to-heads.
Adam Scott (80-1)
Four straight top-10s from 2012-2015 for Scott before the past two years when he was struggling to find his game -- and even then, he finished T22 and T43 and managed to open each tournament in the 60s. Scott hasn't played since missing the cut at the U.S. Open, but could be worth a small flier at 80-1 or so.
Zach Johnson (60-1)
Johnson should be a good bet to make the cut, as he has in each of the past eleven Opens. He's also got six top-20s in the past seven years.
Justin Rose (14-1)
He's always a popular win bet here, but I'm not sure why. He had that magical run to a fourth-place finish as an amateur in 1998, but since then, he has just one top-10 finish in 15 years (at St. Andrews in 2015) and has three missed cuts in the past eight years. He could play well, as he has for much of this year, but there's certainly very little value in backing him.
Alexander Noren (25-1)
Noren won his last start in France. He's been a non-factor in U.S.-based majors, but was sixth at Birkdale last year and ninth in 2012. Those are his only two top-10s in majors. I don't like him to win, but he could work his way into the top 10 come Sunday.
Patrick Reed (30-1)
Reed finished T2, first and fourth in his past three majors. Safe to say he's arrived. The Open is the only major in which he doesn't have a top-10 finish, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if that changes this week.
Zero top-20 finishes at The Open for Fowler since his runner-up finish to McIlroy at Royal Liverpool, but note that none of the past nine Open winners finished better than 30th the year before they won. He's been in the top five in three of the past five majors and again played well in Scotland. Maybe this will be the event he breaks through, but I think he's on the fringes of victory again. He makes for a good bet in the top-10 markets.
Henrik Stenson (25-1)
The injury which kept him out of Scottish Open last week worries me a bit, but it's clear this event suits him quite well. In the past five years, nobody is better to par than Stenson (a combined 29-under beginning with the 2013 Open at Muirfield). If he's healthy, he moves to the list of best bets. Until then, watch the practice rounds and event coverage for news on his health.
Tiger Woods (25-1)
Woods hasn't played The Open since 2015 at St. Andrews and hasn't made the cut since 2014 at Royal Liverpool. He may make the cut here, but he's not a factor to win, just as was the case in the U.S. Open. Look for value against him in head-to-heads and yes/no props to finish in the top 10/20. Woods' last top-10 finish in a major came five years ago at Muirfield.
Jason Day (30-1)
Outside of 2015 at St. Andrews, Day really hasn't been much of a threat to win this major. In non-St. Andrews Opens, Day has finished T27, T22, T58, T32 and T30, and has broken par in just four of 20 rounds (he's broken par in six of eight rounds at St. Andrews). Like Tiger, he might be a guy to fade this week in some head-to-heads.
Adam Scott (80-1)
Four straight top-10s from 2012-2015 for Scott before the past two years when he was struggling to find his game -- and even then, he finished T22 and T43 and managed to open each tournament in the 60s. Scott hasn't played since missing the cut at the U.S. Open, but could be worth a small flier at 80-1 or so.
Zach Johnson (60-1)
Johnson should be a good bet to make the cut, as he has in each of the past eleven Opens. He's also got six top-20s in the past seven years.
Justin Rose (14-1)
He's always a popular win bet here, but I'm not sure why. He had that magical run to a fourth-place finish as an amateur in 1998, but since then, he has just one top-10 finish in 15 years (at St. Andrews in 2015) and has three missed cuts in the past eight years. He could play well, as he has for much of this year, but there's certainly very little value in backing him.
Alexander Noren (25-1)
Noren won his last start in France. He's been a non-factor in U.S.-based majors, but was sixth at Birkdale last year and ninth in 2012. Those are his only two top-10s in majors. I don't like him to win, but he could work his way into the top 10 come Sunday.
Patrick Reed (30-1)
Reed finished T2, first and fourth in his past three majors. Safe to say he's arrived. The Open is the only major in which he doesn't have a top-10 finish, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if that changes this week.
Trends to consider
- Eight of the past 11 Open Champions were 35 or older, and five of the past seven were 39 or older.
- None of the past nine Open winners finished better than 30th in the year before his win, and five of those nine missed
the cut the year before winning. Notable names that finished 30th or worse last year include Sergio Garcia (T37), Webb Simpson (T37), Russell Henley (T37), Jon Rahm (T44), Matthew Fitzpatrick (T44), Dustin Johnson (T54), Rose (T54), Reed (Cut), Louis Oosthuizen (Cut), Justin Thomas (Cut) and Hatton (Cut).
- Jordan Spieth's win at Royal Birkdale last year stopped the run of consecutive first-time major winners at seven. Still, nine of the past 11 majors have been won by a player who had not previously won a major. Taking into account that 22 of the past 23 majors have been won by players ranked in the top 30, and 11 of the past 16 have been won by players ranked in the top 12, here's the group of players who fit that mold of "no major wins, ranked in top 30."
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| World rank | Best finish (Open/major) | Age | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | 5th | T44/4 | 23 |
| Rickie Fowler | 7th | T2/2 | 29 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 10th | T27/2 | 27 |
| Alexander Noren | 11th | T6/T6 | 36 |
| Paul Casey | 14th | T3/T3 | 40 |
| Francesco Molinari | 15th | T9/T2 | 35 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 16th | T6/T2 | 26 |
| Marc Leishman | 18th | T2/T2 | 34 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 22nd | Cut/T15 | 24 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 23rd | T5/T5 | 26 |
| Xander Schauffele | 24th | T20/T5 | 24 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 25th | T4/T4 | 34 |
| Brian Harman | 26th | T26/T2 | 31 |
| Matt Kuchar | 27th | 2/2 | 40 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 28th | 1st app/T21 | 26 |
| Ian Poulter | 29th | 2/2 | 42 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 30th | Cut/15 | 28 |
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