Best Midseason World Series Bets

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hacheman@therx.com
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Best midseason World Series bets

Derek Carty
ESPN INSIDER

The MLB All-Star break brings us just past the midpoint of the season. Some teams have all but clinched a spot in the postseason, while others are all but mathematically eliminated. Crazy things can happen, such as the 2017 New York Mets' improbable collapse down the stretch or the 2001 Oakland Athletics going 58-17 after the break, but for the most part, it's very difficult for teams to dig themselves either into or out of holes.

When deciding which teams to place bets on at this junction, we need to consider the size of their lead or their hole. We have to consider the underlying true talent level of their roster, an important distinction from the way they've performed to this point in 2018. Which teams are overperforming or underperforming? We also have to deal with the uncertainty of the looming trade deadline. Which teams will bolster already potent rosters, and which teams poised to make a Cinderella run will dash their chances by trading away stars?

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It's a lot to take into account, but here are a few teams that look like the strongest bets to win the World Series across a variety of different probability levels.

Note: Odds via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of July 18.

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Washington Nationals (18-1)


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Back in October, the Nationals opened at 7-1, the fourth-highest chance of winning the World Series of any team in baseball. Fast-forward through the winter and halfway through the season, and their odds have fallen by more than 100 percent. Put a more optimistic way: You stand to win more than double what you would have before the season if you place a bet on them now.


Once considered the easy pick to win the NL East, the Nats currently sit in third place behind the unexpectedly good Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. The other word you could use is "lucky," though. Both teams are outperforming their talent levels, with the likes of Nick Markakis (.323/.389/.488), Zach Eflin (3.15 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (2.60 ERA). Despite winning 56 percent of their games thus far, THE BAT -- my DFS projection system -- sees both teams falling to under 47 percent over the remainder of the schedule. The Nationals, meanwhile, still easily project as the best team in the NL East with an expected 56 percent win percentage going forward. They're 5.5 games back, so it will still be an uphill climb to win the division, but despite the ground they have to make up, they remain the divisional favorites:


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TeamProjected record
Washington Nationals85.5-76.5
Philadelphia Phillies84.8-77.2
Atlanta Braves84.5-77.5

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It's a slim margin, but further bolstering their case is that FanGraphs' projected standings are very similar to THE BAT, also viewing the Nats as the favorites. They're no sure thing with less than one projected win separating them from both Philadelphia and Atlanta, but 18-1 are good enough odds to compensate (especially when you factor in the chance of getting in via the wild card if they miss out on the division).


The Nationals have been underperforming, plain and simple, starting with Bryce Harper. There has been plenty of talk from casual fans about how overrated Harper is, but the guy has 23 home runs, is walking 20 percent of the time and is striking out barely more than a league average hitter. His poor season is due almost entirely to a ridiculously, unsustainably low .226 BABIP. This is one of the top five hitters in baseball, and he makes for a fitting microcosm of Washington's season. The Nationals are still the second- or, at worst, third-best team in the National League by pretty much any sabermetric estimation, which means if they do happen to make the playoffs, they'd have a strong chance of making it to the World Series.



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Houston Astros
(9-2)
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This is something of a cop-out bet, but one I like nonetheless. The Astros are the defending champions, and everyone knows they're amazing. They're cruising along so far in 2018, and the odds reflect it. The payout isn't big, but the chances of it hitting are good.


Houston has the best pitching staff in baseball and a top-five bullpen that will only get better when it moves one of its starters over for the playoffs. Breakout 2017 performances from Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. have been validated, and the Astros added a very real-looking breakout from Gerrit Cole this season. They lead baseball in ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K/BB percentage ... literally any stat. They have one of, if not the best offenses in the game, as well, tied with the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox in wRC+.


The overperforming Seattle Mariners have made the division closer than you'd like, but the chances that the Stros continue to dominate and the M's fall away are so strong that it's really not much to worry about. Most teams that win 64 percent of their games over half a season should be expected to get at least a little bit worse going forward by sheer regression alone. THE BAT, however, sees the Astros playing slightly better over the remainder of the season. Anything can happen in the playoffs, but betting on arguably the best team to win isn't a bad strategy.


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Minnesota Twins (300-1)


At this point in the season, it's going to be tough for any team considerably behind the wild-card pack to actually make it to the playoffs, much less win the World Series. If you want to take a shot on a team with a huge payout, the best we can hope to do is a find a team that (A) isn't too far behind, (B) has good underperforming talent and (C) has great odds.


The Twins are 7.5 games back of the division and 12.5 games back of the wild card, so it will take a lot for them to make the playoffs. But the potential payout is huge. The biggest thing they have working in their favor is a great upcoming schedule. They project to face the second-weakest pitching of any AL team over the remainder of the season with, most notably, four series against the Kansas City Royals, four against the Detroit Tigers, two against the Chicago White Sox and one against the Texas Rangers. (Unfortunately, the first-place Indians are the lone team projected to face even weaker pitching.)


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<strike></strike>Minnesota also soon returns Ervin Santana (absent all year), Miguel Sano (who has been great in the minors since his demotion to work things out) and Logan Morrison (who is taking a break on the DL, which should hopefully get him healthy for the stretch run). It has several legitimate-looking breakouts (Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar and Kyle Gibson) to continue riding, not to mention the inevitable positive regression of players such as Brian Dozier and Lance Lynn forthcoming. It's in a big hole, but it wouldn't be unfathomable to see Minnesota make a run.

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Tampa Bay Rays (300-1)


I've been telling my DFS followers all year that the Rays are not nearly as bad as people seem to think they are. Despite a fire sale this winter, they still have enough talent to make them something close to a .500 team going forward. The biggest concern is the possibility that they trade off pieces such as Chris Archer before the trade deadline. They don't have the talent of the Twins, but given that they have a head start, they could also be a worthwhile dart for the potential payout.
 

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Phillies have pitching I'll take them. Read the under has hit 15 of last 19 in their games!

Utley makes a return to Philly next week
 

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