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[h=1]Illinois 2018 Betting Preview: New QB, Up-Tempo System Could Save Illini[/h]Collin WilsonJul 16, 2018 / 8:16 AM EDT










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[FONT=&quot][h=2]Illinois 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +750000
  • To win the Big Ten: +20000
  • To win the Big Ten West: +4000
  • Win Total: 4 (under -130)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Illinois 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 3.2

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Illinois Win Total Under 4 -130
My projections mathematically make the Illinois win total 3.2, but beyond the first two games, it’s tough to see a third win on this schedule. Kent State is in my bottom five for FBS power ratings. Western Illinois is an interesting game, as it made the FCS playoffs and actually finished higher in USA Today’s Sagarin ratings than Illinois last season. The Leathernecks have a new coach and some notable player turnover, but the upset is certainly on my radar.
The X-factor for the Illini is quarterback Cam Thomas, a three-star dual threat from the Chicago area. He got some playing time in 2017 and showed flashes of what a functional Illinois offense can do — something we haven’t seen since 2014.






Illini Barstool
@BarstoolILL





Cam Thomas or Cam Newton??? #illini
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5:25 PM - Nov 25, 2017


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Lovie Smith has long been a defensive-minded guy, even before his days as the Chicago Bears’ coach. He’s handed the offensive play-calling to new offensive coordinator Rod Smith. FootballScoop.com named it one of the 15 most important hires of the offseason.
Although Smith’s name may not ring a bell, some of the players he has coached might. They include Denard Robinson (Michigan), Pat White (West Virginia) and Khalil Tate (Arizona). Smith spent years in the Rich Rodriguez system, but now finds himself at Illinois with some talent he should be familiar with coaching.
We are cautiously going to take the Under 4 on the Illinois win total. While there is not a clear third victory on this schedule, the Illini have plenty of depth on the offensive line and skill positions, so a skilled dual-threat quarterback like Thomas could make some noise. There should be a hedge situation for the season-ending game against Northwestern, as Lovie Smith could be coaching for his job while the Wildcats may have wrapped up bowl eligibility.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Illinois[/h]Illinois has taken in some money in a Westgate Game of the Year. Specifically, the Penn State -28.5 opener has moved to -27. I have the game power-rated at 24, so any Illinois number above +24 deserves consideration. The Under 4 mentioned above should be safe, but there is potential for Illinois to vastly improve and be competitive in conference play. Grab the current Illinois +27 against Penn State if you stop by the Westgate.
[h=2]Useless Trend[/h]
  • Illinois is 6-0 to the under after a bye since 2014
[h=2]Ohio State 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +800
  • To win the Big Ten: +150
  • To win the Big Ten East: +105
  • Win Total: 10.5 (over -120)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Ohio State 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 10.8

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Ohio State Over 10.5 Wins
Since Urban Meyer’s arrival in Columbus, the Buckeyes have lost five regular-season games in six seasons. Two of those losses came last year to Iowa and Oklahoma. The loss to the Hawkeyes was especially painful, as the Buckeyes went on to be a two-loss Big Ten champion left out of the playoff.
This season, the East Division may be the most competitive it’s been since Meyer took over in Columbus. Since 2012, Ohio State is 15-2 straight-up against Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan, which again will be the Buckeyes’ three biggest hurdles. Those three games will likely have a point spread under a touchdown. Ohio State will be favored by more than a TD in its nine other contests.
The schedule sets Ohio State up nicely for an uncontested run to the Big Ten championship game. Although the Buckeyes only have one bye week (before hosting Nebraska), there is plenty of fluff in between tough games.
Additionally, a game against Penn State on Sept. 29 is the Buckeyes’ first trip to an opponent’s home stadium. That tango in Happy Valley is cushioned between Tulane and Indiana, and the Buckeyes play Maryland in between their tilts with Michigan State and Michigan. In short, there are no scheduling disadvantages from a lookahead or hangover standpoint.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Ohio State[/h]Lay some extra cheddar on a Dwayne Haskins Heisman bet (currently +2800). Like Haskins, the ticket could have plenty of legs in the beginning of December.


You can certainly argue that Haskins taking over for longtime Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett is a good thing for the Buckeyes. In his limited playing time, Haskins displayed the ability to improve the Buckeyes’ 81st ranking in explosiveness on passing downs. That was Ohio State’s Achilles’ heel on offense the past two years.
Looking for a Game of the Year wager? Ohio State -12 over TCU at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, could be all Buckeyes. Not only will Haskins be on full display against a TCU defense that ranked 119th in Passing explosiveness, the Buckeyes’ defensive line should feast. TCU lost four of its best offensive linemen from 2017 and will have its hands full with Nick Bosa and Dre’Mont Jones.
[h=2]Useless Trends[/h]
  • Meyer is 6-0 against the spread as an underdog since 2012.
  • Per BetLabs, Meyer is 8-2 ATS as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. This scenario could present itself against Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan.
[h=1]Nebraska 2018 Betting Preview: Fade Scott Frost in Year Zero[/h]Collin WilsonJul 16, 2018 / 3:10 PM EDT











[h=2]Nebraska 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +25000
  • To win the Big Ten: +4000
  • To win the Big Ten West: +1200
  • Win Total: 6.5
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Nebraska 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 5.1

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Nebraska Win Total Under 6.5
The love for a coach can sometimes drive a betting market in your favor. UCF hired Scott Frost after a winless 2015 and ended with a New Year’s Six Peach Bowl victory over Auburn two years later. Now he’s at Nebraska, his alma mater.
Turning the Huskers around will not be easy in Year Zero, as they rank 71st in overall returning production. Most noteworthy, a handful of freshmen and walk-on candidates will compete for the starting quarterback position. The player who wins that job will run Frost’s up-tempo, new-school-option offense.
Luckily, the defense will stick to a 3-4 scheme under new defensive coordinator Erik Chinander, who served in the same role at Central Florida. For the fast-paced offensive scheme Frost wants to run, it was important to keep continuity with his defensive coordinator.






SpreadOffense.com@SpreadOffense





Nice design by Scott Frost (UCF), shift to 4x1, QB design run off quick screen. Watch the 2 gap Fold block by the LT. #spreadoffense
2:08 PM - Oct 4, 2017


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The schedule is brutal, especially when you factor in the situations. Wisconsin and Ohio State will both be coming off bye weeks before playing Nebraska. Michigan is another cross-division game on the road. Illinois and Purdue do come to Lincoln, but the Huskers may need a season-ending win against Iowa just to make a bowl.
Nebraska is a 6-point dog or more in six games, according to my projections. So the Cornhuskers will need to win every game in which they are listed as a favorite and sneak in a dog victory at some point to cash an over ticket. This may be the last year for some time to have an under on Nebraska’s win total, but I am rolling that way, with eyes on 2019 and beyond for the Huskers.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Nebraska[/h]The game where Frost can sneak up on a top-tier Big Ten team: Michigan State on Nov. 17. The tough Spartans defense struggled in 2017 with high-tempo teams that tried to dictate pace, suffering losses to Ohio State and Northwestern. Frost will attempt to do the same, as the Spartans will come to Lincoln on hangover alert after playing Ohio State.
[h=2]Useless Trends[/h]
    • Nebraska is 14-5 to the over as an underdog since 2014.
    • Frost went 16-9-1 to the over in his two years as coach at Central Florida.



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[h=1]Iowa 2018 Betting Preview: Why Hawkeyes Can Challenge for Big Ten West[/h]Collin WilsonJul 17, 2018 / 8:17 AM EDT










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[FONT=&quot][h=2]Iowa 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +40000
  • To win the Big Ten: +4000
  • To win the Big Ten West: +1200
  • Win Total: 7.5 (over +105, under -125)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Iowa 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 6.9

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Iowa to win the Big Ten West +1200
Every preseason, I want to handicap Iowa as a team on the downward slide while the rest of the Big Ten West improves through recruiting and coaching upgrades. But Kirk Ferentz & Co. always seem to be a step ahead.
Evidence: Making the 2016 Rose Bowl, dropping a piano on Ohio State in 2017, and having the best new tradition in all of college football with the Children’s Hospital wave.






WSYX ABC 6
@wsyx6





A happy moment out of Iowa...#OhioState fans & players took part in the new tradition of waving to patients at Iowa Children's Hospital
8:23 PM - Nov 4, 2017


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While Wisconsin is the heavy favorite to take the West division, Iowa has the much easier path. Both Iowa and Wisconsin must visit Penn State, but the Hawkeyes have an advantage as the Nittany Lions could be caught looking ahead to Michigan.
In the other cross-division game, Wisconsin draws a visit to Michigan while Iowa plays host to Maryland. This is a major scheduling advantage for Iowa, and could help the Hawkeyes win more conference games than the Badgers.
For Iowa +1200 to win the Big Ten West or +4000 for the Big Ten, the hedge spot comes Sept. 22 when Wisconsin visits Kinnick Stadium, with a projected spread of +10 for the Hawkeyes. Iowa quarterback Nate Stanley was brutal against the Badgers in 2017, going 8-of-24 for 41 yards. This year could see more of the same, but with a Wisconsin moneyline expected around -350, there will be ample room to hedge the division bet.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Iowa[/h]Iowa has ranked in the top 15 defensively against explosiveness during the past three years. Penn State generally ranks in the top 20 in offensive explosiveness, and Nittany Lions quarterback Trace McSorley should keep those numbers intact. Look for this to be a potential upset spot, as Penn State has Michigan and Wisconsin to deal with after the Hawkeyes.
[h=2]Useless Trends[/h]
  • Iowa is 12-3 ATS as a road favorite since 2013.
  • Per BetLabs: Since 2006, Iowa is 20-35-1 ATS when favored by a touchdown or more and getting more than 50% of betting tickets.
[h=1]Penn State 2018 Betting Preview: Undervalued Thanks to Public Perception[/h]Collin WilsonJul 17, 2018 / 12:17 PM EDT











[h=2]Penn State 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +3000
  • To win the Big Ten: +575
  • To win the Big Ten East: +355
  • Win Total: 9.5 (over -105, under -115)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Penn State 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 9.2

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Penn State Over 9.5 Wins -105
How well has Penn State performed at home since 2015? In that time, the Nittany Lions have gone 20-1 straight up — with an impressive 9-3 ATS mark against conference opponents. We may get a “Saquon Barkley discount” in the market due to a perceived drop-off after the departure of the star running back, but recent recruiting rankings suggest that won’t happen. Head coach James Franklin has had top 20 classes in each of the past four cycles, most recently pulling the fifth-best classin the country for 2018.
The influx of talent is needed, as Penn State ranks 116th overall in returning production for 2018. The Nittany Lions also lost offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead, who left to take the head coaching job at Mississippi State.
However, quarterback Trace McSorley returns with the bulk of his offensive line, in addition to outside weapons in wide receivers Juwan Johnson and DeAndre Thompkins. Penn State also has four relatively easy games to build an identity before its showdown with Ohio State. As for the defense, almost every player who donned a jersey on that side of the ball earned snaps in 2017 — PSU rotated players more often than any team in the country.
Only one of Penn State’s four toughest games on the schedule will require travel — at Michigan on Nov. 3. Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin all have to visit Happy Valley, which makes State College an important stop in determining who will make the College Football Playoff.
If Penn State can defend home turf against the Big Ten — as it has in the past — the Over 9.5 should cash. There should also be an easy opportunity to hedge if the Nittany Lions enter the Wisconsin game with seven wins.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Penn State[/h]I could certainly make a case for Trace McSorley to win the Heisman at +2200. As detailed in an earlier Heisman piece, McSorley meets all of the criteria to at least get to New York for the Heisman ceremony. While the schedule presents some high-ranking Passing S&P+ defenses, ending the season with Rutgers and Maryland could be a huge advantage.
[h=2]Useless Trends[/h]
  • Penn State is 2-11-2 ATS since 2014 after a straight-up loss.
  • James Franklin is 8-0 ATS since 2014 when receiving fewer than 50% of bets when the line sits between +3 and -24.

[h=1]Rutgers 2018 Betting Preview: Trying To Find Four Winnable Games[/h]Collin WilsonJul 17, 2018 / 3:29 PM EDT











[h=2]Rutgers 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +500000
  • To win the Big Ten: +10000
  • To win the Big Ten East: +5700
  • Win Total: 4 (Over +100, Under -120)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Rutgers 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 3.5

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Rutgers Win Total Under 4 -120
As Chris Ash continues to build this program, the defense has become a stable identity. That has been the moniker of Ash’s teams, from Wisconsin to Ohio State. Ash even got Arkansas to make a few third-down stops in 2013 as defensive coordinator.
Rutgers does lose its leading rushers from 2017, but an experienced offensive line should still keep the strength of the Knights offense in the rushing attack. The offensive line also ranked 35th in adjusted sack rate, giving whoever is under center time to make a decision in the passing game.

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Since the Scarlet Knights are expected to have stability in the rushing attack, handicapping the win total is about the defensive front sevens on their schedule. The Texas State front seven has depth and experience, and the linebacking corps is tough on rushing offenses. Believe it or not, Kansas will field its best defensive line and linebacker units in years.
The same story applies to Buffalo’s linebacking corps, led by Khalil Hodge. Maryland returns defensive end Jesse Aniebonam, who could contend for first-team Big Ten honors.
So while the one strength of the Rutgers offense is rushing, the winnable games on the schedule come against some better-than-average defensive fronts. My projection calls for 3.5 wins, and I’ll ride 2018 with a Rutgers Under 4 until we get life out of the Scarlet Knights passing game.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Rutgers[/h]Rutgers at Kansas on Sept. 15 should be the showcase of Week 3. Move over, TCU-Ohio State, we have a donnybrook in Lawrence.
All kidding aside, this game should decide the win-total grading for both the Jayhawks and Scarlet Knights. Kansas should have more motivation in this game, as head coach David Beaty knows he is on the hot seat with a new athletic director.
Above all, Kansas ranks second in overall in returning production, and I expect the Jayhawks to overachieve in 2018. If you miss out on a Rutgers win total under or a Jayhawks win total over, consider Kansas -3 or better in Week 3 against Rutgers.



[h=1]Minnesota 2018 Betting Preview: Will Gophers Improve In Fleck’s Second Season?[/h]Collin WilsonJul 17, 2018 / 5:41 PM EDT











[h=2]Minnesota 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +100000
  • To win the Big Ten: +6000
  • To win the Big Ten West: +1450
  • Win Total: 6 (over -125, under +105)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Minnesota 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 5.7

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Minnesota Win Total Over 6
Minnesota will be a watch-and-learn team in 2018. The Gophers rank in the middle of the FBS pack in returning production, but four redshirt freshman quarterbacks keep the future cloudy. The Minnesota faithful will give head coach P.J. Fleck as much slack as possible in Year 2, as he should boast one of the most experienced teams in 2019 to keep rowing the boat.
The schedule doesn’t provide much clarity either, with two games the Gophers almost certainly can’t win (Wisconsin, Ohio State) and one game they should win (Illinois). Everything else will be tight. The schedule sets up nicely next year, since the Gophers avoid Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State, while hosting Wisconsin to end the year … but that is 2019.

College Football Betting 2018: Picks, Previews For All 130 TeamsRead now

Minnesota should have plenty of motivation to get to six wins and a bowl game, as that would give Fleck extra practices for 2019. Not only are both November home games at frigid TCF Bank Stadium, but the Gophers have the easier portion of the schedule leading up to that point. Minnesota plays Nebraska, Indiana and Illinois before Nov. 4, while Purdue and Northwestern have brutal stretches leading into trips to the Twin Cities.
There are seven games on the Gophers’ docket with a projected spread within a field goal. A five-game stint in the middle of the schedule from Nebraska, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern will determine the season win total. Illinois and Nebraska are road games and round out a fairly light schedule (ranked 62nd by ESPN FPI). Fleck improved from 1-11 to 8-5 in his second year at Western Michigan, and I’m looking for that same kind of improvement by betting Over 6 wins.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Minnesota[/h]The Gophers start 2018 with New Mexico State, which enjoyed a terrific 2017 season and should not be overlooked as it ranks 16th in returning production on defense, and did a decent job stopping explosive plays last season. Fleck did not have success getting the ball down the field in chunks, ranking 124th in offensive explosiveness. There’s a good possibility that this game features a depleted New Mexico State offense (122nd in returning production on offense) against an incompetent, freshman-led Gophers attack in 90-degree heat. That should lend some value to the under, and my projections have this spread at 10.5, so there’s plenty of value New Mexico State +18.





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[h=1]Purdue 2018 Betting Preview: Expect Defensive Regression, Plenty of Overs[/h]Collin WilsonJul 11, 2018 / 11:30 AM EDT










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[FONT=&quot][h=4]Purdue 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +50000
  • To win the Big Ten: +4500
  • To win the Big Ten East: +1275
  • Win Total: 6 (over -130, under -110)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Purdue 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 5.1

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Purdue Win Total Under 6 +100
Hiring Jeff Brohm before last season was a game-changer for Purdue. He’s a coach on the rise and was a cover-the-spread machine at Western Kentucky, so he should help the Boilermakers shed the “Purdon’t” moniker.
As a former quarterback and offensive coordinator from the Bobby Petrino coaching tree, Brohm is known for his offense. Surprisingly, it was the Boilermaker upperclassmen on defense who helped the Brohm era get off to a solid start (7-6 record and a Foster Farms Bowl victory over Khalil Tate and Arizona).





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Before last year, I had never seen 11 Purdue defenders swarm to the football, and that’s all coaching. Nick Holt returns as defensive coordinator, but the Purdue defense ranks 125th in returning production for 2018.
There are three games Purdue will not win with its current defense (Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin). That leaves six games projected within a field goal, making the win total an interesting play.
The beauty of this future is having three games projected close to a pick’em in November. If Purdue happens to sweep September, there are plenty of chances to hedge in November. I will roll the dice on Under 6 +100, especially when the schedule features teams on the rise (Boston College, Nebraska, even Eastern Michigan)

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Purdue[/h]Purdue had a positive number in 2nd Order Wins — meaning the Boilermakers outplayed their record slightly thanks to a stellar defense. But they may be caught in more shootouts this year. Last season, nine of the Boilermakers’ 13 games went under, including a run of seven straight late in the year.
With Purdue ranking 41st in plays per game at 74.6 in 2017, look for some high-scoring affairs early this season against Northwestern (11th in plays per game), Missouri, and Boston College (25th in plays per game). Bookmakers might not adjust totals for the lack of defense by the Boilermakers early in the season.


[h=2]Michigan 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
    • To win the National Title: +2000
    • To win the Big Ten: +475
    • To win the Big Ten East: +280
    • Win Total: 9
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Michigan 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 9

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Michigan not selected for a New Year’s Six Bowl +105 (5Dimes)
The transfer of ex-Ole Miss quarterback Shea Patterson gives head coach Jim Harbaugh a legit talent under center. The main issue is the “under center” portion of that statement, as Patterson always lined up in shotgun during his time at Ole Miss. Harbaugh has mentioned not using Patterson in a play-action package, but rather doing something similar to the RPO scheme used by the Philadelphia Eagles.
Another missing piece to the puzzle is the offensive coordinator. The position will technically remain vacant, as the offensive line coach, wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator will collectively share OC duties this upcoming season. No matter what offense Michigan decides to run, it won’t have time to figure things out, as the Wolverines open the season in South Bend against a very stout Notre Dame defense that ranks first in returning production.

College Football Betting 2018: Picks, Previews For All 130 TeamsRead now

Thanks to seven easy victories, my projections have Michigan winning nine games. But of those seven lighter games on their schedule, both Northwestern and Maryland get extra time to prepare for the Wolverines with a bye week. Michigan will also play five games against elite national defenses — and will host Wisconsin, which Ohio State avoids.
As a result of a tough schedule (starting in Week 1), I just don’t envision Michigan making the Big Ten Championship Game. And with expected losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State, I don’t see the Wolverines sweeping Notre Dame, Penn State and Michigan State. They should lose at least three games this season, which means no Rose Bowl for Michigan on New Year’s Day.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Michigan[/h]History shows that teams struggle the week after playing Wisconsin, as the physicality apparently takes a toll. Since 2007, teams are 45-66 (41%) ATS after playing the Badgers.
This year, the Wolverines travel to East Lansing after facing Wisconsin, which could provide a nice opportunity to back Sparty. The current game of the year line sits at Michigan State +2.5.


[h=1]Maryland 2018 Betting Preview: Terps Are Explosive, But Not Much Else[/h]Collin WilsonJul 18, 2018 / 3:22 PM EDT











[h=2]Maryland 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +150000
  • To win the Big Ten: +7000
  • To win the Big Ten East: +3900
  • Win Total: 5 (over -150, under +120)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Maryland 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 3.9

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Maryland Under 5 Wins +120
When you think of Maryland Terrapins football, three things should immediately come to mind:

  1. Quarterbacks Kasim Hill and Tyrell Pigrome are highlight reels under center who define explosiveness (see 2017 at Texas) — when healthy.
  2. Matt Canada (offensive coordinator at LSU last season) will now call plays in College Park.
  3. Head coach DJ Durkin has been routed the past two years by the best teams in the Big Ten East.
I have a soft spot when capping Maryland because I’m a fan of explosive offenses (Maryland ranked 38th in 2017) and defenses that limit explosiveness (Terps’ defense ranked 14th). Holding a ticket on last year’s upset over Texas was the highlight of the first week for me.


While I generally like to get money down on teams that succeed on both sides of the ball in the explosiveness category, Maryland’s other metrics make me cautious. Canada should help improve an offense that finished 115th in efficiency last year, but he won’t help a defense that ranked 120th in finishing drives.
The schedule is also unkind, which is standard in the brutal Big Ten East. Maryland should be a double-digit underdog in six games this season — five in conference (Michigan, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State) and against a Texas team out for revenge. The Terps will also play two coin-flip conference games against Minnesota and Indiana.
Maryland will be favored at Bowling Green in Week 2, but not by more than a touchdown. The Terps could easily drop that game, which has high letdown potential the week following their highly touted rematch with UT.

College Football Betting 2018: Picks, Previews For All 130 TeamsRead now

After starting off the season against Texas (at a semi-neutral venue in FedEx Field) and at Bowling Green, the Terps will play their home opener and final non-conference game against Temple. They could potentially overlook Temple the week before Big Ten play, which would certainly go a long way toward getting this plus-money Under 5 prop to the window.
And even with wins over Temple, Bowling Green and in both coin-flip conference games — Maryland would still need to pull off a major upset to get to six wins.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Maryland[/h]The Terps’ special teams have ranked 102nd and 130th in Durkin’s first two years in College Park. Yes, Maryland ranked dead last in special teams last season. The Terps especially struggled on kickoffs and punts, which put them at a severe field-position disadvantage. Those splits make it impossible to trust putting money down on the Terrapins.
While I may look to hit Maryland in its opener if the Texas love gets out of hand, I don’t anticipate betting on the Terps much — until I see improved special teams execution.


[h=1]Indiana 2018 Betting Preview: Road Schedule, Defensive Turnover Spell Trouble[/h]Collin WilsonJul 18, 2018 / 5:47 PM EDT











[h=2]Indiana 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +200000
  • To win the Big Ten: +8000
  • To win the Big Ten East: +4300
  • Win Total: 5 (over -130, under +100)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Indiana 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 5.7

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Indiana Win Total Under 5 +100
Indiana football has become relevant with recent trips to the Pinstripe and Foster Farms bowls. But after a brutal exit for previous head coach Kevin Wilson in 2016, Indiana promoted defensive coordinator Tom Allen. He flipped the script and turned the Indiana defense around, while the offense sputtered. It was typically the opposite under Wilson.
And it’s safe to say Wilson, now Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, didn’t hold any offense back in last year’s opening game against his former assistant.


Indiana’s numbers on defense last year weren’t bad, ranking 26th in S&P+ on defense and 10th overall in Adjusted Sack Rate. But like I said, the Hoosiers’ offense another story.
Mike DeBord came in as offensive coordinator from Tennessee. DeBord put up some decent efficiency metrics in his time at Knoxville, but last year was nowhere close in Bloomington. Indiana was 97th offensively in S&P+, and ranked 115th in efficiency and 116th in explosiveness. Those numbers must change, since the Hoosiers’ defense doesn’t return a whole lot and won’t be as big a strength.

College Football Betting 2018: Picks, Previews For All 130 TeamsRead now

Every Big Ten school is upgrading its coaches. Jeff Brohm, Scott Frost, P.J. Fleck and Kirk Ferentz all bring proven track records of overachievement. Allen and offensive coordinator DeBord have their work cut out for them.
Indiana also covered on the road in 2017 just once. Road trips this year include must-wins against FIU, Rutgers and Minnesota.
We’re going against the Hoosiers and taking Under 5 wins. The strength of Indiana football, its defense, will not be there to slow any explosiveness down in 2018.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Indiana[/h]The opening game against FIU may have value on Indiana -10. While Indiana loses a ton of experience on defense (126th in returning production), Florida International has lost returning production across the board, ranking 126th overall. I have this game projected at Indiana -16, while S&P+ makes this Hoosiers -12.5.


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[h=1]Michigan State 2018 Betting Preview: Don’t Expect a Repeat of Last Season[/h]Collin WilsonJul 11, 2018 / 11:30 AM EDT










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[FONT=&quot][h=2]Michigan State 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +4500
  • To win the Big Ten: +900
  • To win the Big Ten West: +530
  • Win Total: 9 (over +105, under -125)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Michigan State 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 9.5

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Michigan State +3.5 vs. Michigan
This Game of the Year was released at Michigan State +5 and has been bet down across the board. 5Dimes currently has Sparty at +2.5 and Westgate has +3.5.
Coach Mark Dantonio circles this game every year, and 2018’s meeting should have more meaning after last year’s Outback Bowl snub. The two head coaches have a healthy rivalry, after all.

Coach Harbaugh
@CoachJim4UM





Saw Coach D comments on continuing to "focus" on how "he" can beat Michigan. Congrats on turning around a 3-9 team, plagued with off field issues. Good for BIG to have him back.
4:17 PM - Dec 4, 2017


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This feud continues to be one of the most entertaining in football, but that might be because of the Michigan State moneyline bet I had in 2015.


As I’ve mentioned, teams are 40% against the spread in the past 11 years in games after playing Wisconsin. Michigan faces Wisconsin on Oct. 13 and then travels to East Lansing on Oct. 20. My power rankings say this game should have Michigan as a small favorite, but the situation spot is too good for a Michigan State squad that ranks first overall in returning production.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Michigan State[/h]Consider adding Michigan State to not make a New Year’s Six bowl at -175 as an investment in your betting portfolio. I was extremely high on Michigan State before the Big Ten schedule was released. Not only are the Spartans the most experienced team in the nation, but they had the fourth-ranked S&P+ Defense in 2017.
But Michigan State’s bye week comes in mid-September and not in October (mid-terms) or November when players are injured. Also, Penn State hosts Michigan State the week before Sparty’s rivalry spot with Michigan. I would not be surprised to see the Spartans mail it in at State College (plus, Penn State will be looking to avenge last season’s loss).
Lastly, the cross-division game with Nebraska comes straight after Ohio State. Scott Frost will know his team’s identity by Thanksgiving and can catch Michigan State in a hangover spot.


[h=1]Wisconsin 2018 Betting Preview: Bank On Double-Digit Wins Again[/h]Collin WilsonJul 19, 2018 / 12:22 PM EDT











[h=2]Wisconsin 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +2500
  • To win the Big Ten: +300
  • To win the Big Ten West: -230
  • Win Total: 10 (over +120, under -140)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Wisconsin 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 10.2

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Jonathan Taylor to make the Heisman Presentation +225
This is the best offensive line in the country, which is par for the course with Wisconsin. The Badgers have consistently produced linemen on both sides of the ball who leave opposing teams feeling as if they have been through the meat grinder. That is great news for quarterback Alex Hornibrook and running back Jonathan Taylor, who left the Orange Bowl with clean jerseys after crushing Miami.


From 2007-17, Wisconsin opponents have gone 45-66 (41%) ATS the week after playing the Badgers. The Big Ten is 34-47 (42%) in that time frame. Opposing teams have had a winning ATS margin after playing Wisconsin in only one year during this span (2009). Wisconsin’s best seasons, from an opposing hangover standpoint, were 2017 (1-8 ATS) and 2011 (2-8 ATS). The Badgers beat you up.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

This offensive line unit will be no different in 2018, and Taylor will take full advantage with numbers worthy of postseason trophies. I can certainly make a case why he should get the most Heisman votes of any running back, and think he’ll be in New York come December.
[h=2]What else you need to know about Wisconsin[/h]My projections make the Badgers 10-2, with trips to Michigan and Penn State presenting the toughest tests. Wisconsin winning the Big Ten West at -230 has value, as only Iowa should present a challenge as a 10-point underdog early in the season. The Badgers would potentially be seven-point underdogs to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, which could present a -300 hedge spot — not a ton of value there since the Badgers are +300 to win the Big Ten outright. The better wagers are the West Division title and a Win Total Over.
I certainly cannot fault anyone for taking College Football Playoff and national title futures, as this is one of the best-coached teams in the nation. Wisconsin finished first in the nation in 3rd Down S&P+ Offense last season.



[h=1]Northwestern 2018 Betting Preview: Two Big Games to Bet Pat’s Cats[/h]Collin WilsonJul 11, 2018 / 3:00 PM EDT











[h=2]Northwestern 2018 Betting Odds[/h]
  • To win the National Title: +70000
  • To win the Big Ten: +2000
  • To win the Big Ten West: +600
  • Win Total: 6 (over -155, under +135)
All lines taken from 5Dimes on July 9. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Northwestern 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 6.3

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Game of the Year: Northwestern (-5) versus Nebraska
Northwestern was my biggest win total over play last year, thanks to its combination of returning production and scheduling. This year, running back Justin Jackson departs, which means quarterback Clayton Thorson will need to shoulder the load on offense. The biggest question is always Thorson’s health, and who a potential backup would be. It is safe to say Thorson’s days as a wide receiver are probably over.






Stadium
@WatchStadium





Cool moment during the @MusicCityBowl as multiple @UKFootball players gave a pat on the back to the injured Clayton Thorson of @NUFBFamily.
10:08 PM - Dec 29, 2017


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The Wildcats’ defense has a stout front seven, but it will get beat against teams that can sling it 20-plus yards. Nebraska is not going to be one of those teams, with their collection of quarterbacks who are either freshmen or walk-ons. Nebraska’s schedule is brutal, and Northwestern falls right into the middle of that mix.
If you are a stout believer in the ATS numbers for teams the week after Wisconsin — teams cover just 40% of the time after playing the Badgers — Northwestern -5 should have plenty of value. My power rankings make this -7.5, while S&P+ makes this a 7-point game.

>> Follow Collin Wilson in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his college football bets during the season.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Northwestern[/h]Northwestern is currently +3 against Purdue in Week 1. We have this Power Rated as Northwestern being a 1-point road favorite in this matchup. Keep tabs on Thorson’s health, as Purdue’s defense ranks 125th in returning production. Like 2017, Northwestern should control the clock and keep Purdue’s offense off the field.
Also keep tabs on Northwestern’s win total. They are first in APR rankings, meaning five wins should equal a bowl game for the Wildcats. If Northwestern gets to November with just four wins, expect plenty of motivation against Minnesota and Illinois.


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I feel sorry for Illinois. Very nice campus. The people are very friendly. They do not deserve to be stuck with one of the worst HC's in College Football, but that is what they have. Lovie returns 7 players on both sides of the ball, but they are limited to offensive linemen and defensive backs, with a sprinkling of other players. Their two easiest conference games are on the road, @ Rutgers and @ Maryland. Last season, Illinois was 0-9 in the Big 10. This season they will be dogs in every conference game. Lovie is 0-12 vs Big 10 West opponents. 4 wins would be a great year.
 

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Nice writeups. Thanks for posting!
The Illinois +27 looks interesting......but; PROS; It's at Illinois and a Friday night game. Penn St 4-1 ATS and SU before Ohio State (who is on deck) and the one loss ATS and SU, an away game at Mich.
Cons; Penn St is 4-1 ATS and SU before OSU, they're not looking ahead. Last three, at home, they beat the spread by an average of 20 pts!
Think I'll pass.

Now Penn St after Ohio State is interesting. They are 1-4 SU against Ohio State last five. When they lost to the Buckeyes they did not cover the next week, actually losing two of them as fav's. This year they have a damn BYE after OSU.

Michigan playing MSU after Wisconsin is tough, but MSU will be coming off of at-Penn St for the Lions homecoming, (Penn St off of BYE) and before that hosting NW, winner at East Lansing last four games there. These could be back to back loses before facing the Wolverines. I have it an even trade for toughness of schedule, not much advantage for MSU.

Everyone looking at Frost in Nebraska looking for an offensive explosion. I bet the defense makes more improvement than the offense this year. They were horrible last year, could not tackle. Still, I'm looking hard at the Under 6.5. I see a 6-6 year with five road loses and a Michigan State home lose. The Under opened at -110 (WilliamHill) and is now +110. Need to shop around first and what others have.
 

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Watch the lines in the Nebraska games. I see a rather simple 6-6 season in front of them, but that is S/U. The line, especially the away lines, may offer some excellent wagering opportunities. Nebraska should be dogs in all 5 of their away games. The question is how big a dog?
 
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DateVisitorHomeTAN
9/1AkronNebraska -21
9/8ColoradoNebraska -4.5
9/15TroyNebraska -9.5
9/22NebraskaMichigan -23.5
9/29PurdueNebraska -1
10/6NebraskaWisconsin -20
10/13NebraskaNorthwestern -7.5
10/20MinnesotaNebraska -2.5
11/3NebraskaOhio State -27.5
11/10IllinoisNebraska -14
11/17Michigan StateNebraska +12.5
11/23NebraskaIowa -6.5






TAN represents The Action Network's projected spread in relation to the home team.






Scheduling Notes

  • [*=left]Colorado and Minnesota come to Nebraska on back to back travel
    [*=left]Wisconsin comes off a bye week to host Nebraska
    [*=left]Both Nebraska & Ohio State are off a bye week for their game on Nov. 3rd
    [*=left]Nebraska has back to back travel against Northwestern
    [*=left]Michigan State could be on hangover alert, coming to Lincoln after hosting Ohio State



 

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As far as the scheduling notes are concerned, they are, for the most part, all against Nebraska. Colorado is coming off a Neutral Site game that they play every season. Minny is 5-0 after the Ohio State game and 3-1-1 in their last 5 against Nebraska. Nebraska's back to back away games are at Wisconsin and Northwestern, teams that are both 5-2 against the Huskers in their previous 7 games. The Michigan State game looks good for Nebraska. They are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings, but the teams have NOT met in the previous two years.
 

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A Classic

Let us not forget what happened to Iowa Starting DT Brady Reiff. Apparently anything can happen in the Big 10.
 

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You mean the Big 10 which features assistant coaches who are fired for violating restraining orders taken out by their ex-wives and assistant coaches who molest young men? Is that the Big 10 you are talking about? You have to be both drunk and stupid to mistake a marked patrol car for an Uber ride.
 

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