Some Thoughts on GOY Lines

The Pooh · Jul 24, 2018

I am looking for lines that are way out of wack because of the popularity of the teams involved. Examples:

11/10...Miss. State +19 1/2 @ Alabama. Alabama will be coming off of two straight away games, at Tennessee and at LSU. It is easily their toughest stretch of the season, or should be. Miss. State is also coming off a game against a Louisiana school. That being a home game against La. Tech. If this were the Auburn game (a team that Miss. State is on a par with), the line would be 9.

09/08...Michigan State -10 @ Arizona State. A lot of strange things happen when you have people vote for playoff participants. It is a beauty contest. Teams that do not belong get in, and teams that do belong are left out. There is one thing though that will remain a constant. A two loss team will never get in over a Power 5 team with one loss. It will just never happen as long as there are 4 or more Power 5 teams with 1 or less losses. MSU HC Mark Dantonio has been around and knows how the game is played. He knows that if his team, which returns 19 starters, loses to Arizona State, a potential last place finisher in the Pac 12 South, his chances to get to the playoffs are all but gone. If this game were played in Michigan, the line would be -30.

(to be continued)

The Pooh · Jul 24, 2018

(Continuing)
9/29...Arizona +4 vs USC. This is the bottom line for Arizona and new HC Kevin Sumlin, who has been known to blow big games. Arizona returns 8 on offense including a legitimate Heisman candidate in QB Tate. They return 9 starters on defense. They play a relatively easy schedule going into this game. USC will have a freshman starting at QB, and a new DL. Their schedule is much tougher, having played at Stanford, Texas, and a Friday Night game at home against Washington State. USC is favored because they are USC. The line should be reversed.

cloverleaf · Jul 25, 2018

Mississippi State usually plays well as a road dog (8-4 ATS) the last four years. Talent wise,
this could be the best team the Bulldogs have had in years. Got to keep quarterback Nick
Fitzgerald healthy all season to have a chance at a great season.

The Pooh · Jul 26, 2018

If Alabama loses a game in the regular season (and I do NOT expect them to. Not with that schedule), this would be the one. All the hype will be on games against Texas A&M (new HC Fisher), @ Tennessee (new HC Pruitt) and @LSU (the week before the Miss. State game). Miss. State may have the #2 team in the SEC West and will fly under the radar for the most part. This is the team that may give 'Bama their biggest challenge during the regular season.

skins85 · Jul 26, 2018

wouldnt you think if alabama is undefeated going into that game and the public loves alabama that line would moving toward the 20 or 21+ mark. just curious if your taking these lines now or waiting cause i could see the public pushing alabama lines up all year, including this one.

MattyMatt · Jul 26, 2018

Mississippi St. isn’t flying under any radar with games against Florida,Auburn,Texas A&M,and LSU all before the Bama game,with only a “break” with La. Tech the week before.

DeadLast · Jul 26, 2018

MattyMatt said:
Mississippi St. isn’t flying under any radar with games against Florida,Auburn,Texas A&M,and LSU all before the Bama game,with only a “break” with La. Tech the week before.

Not only will they not fly under the radar, the exact opposite could happen. Too many so-called experts (and our own Mr Pooh) are picking State as a trendy pick this year.

That could happen, but I'm not jumping on the State bandwagon until I see results on the field. Too much is being made about their 19 returning starters. They will have an experience advantage, but will they have a talent advantage? Probably not, at least not against the bama's of the world.

They did have some impressive wins last year (A&M and LSU) and a close loss to bama, but they were also blown out by a couple of teams with superior talent - Auburn beat State (49-10) and Georgia won (31-3). Two cases of talent overshadowing lack of talent.

Then there is the coaching change angle. Most coaches who achieve first year success run a similar system to what was previously run. That will not be the case at State this year. Moorhead installed a version of the spread at Penn State but it was nothing like the qb run heavy system employed by Mullen. Just as important, the O-line blocking schemes will change tremendously. Most people think Mullen's system was simple - and in some ways it was - but his offensive line blocking schemes were not. They were the most unique and sophisticated in the sec. How quick and well the State linemen adjust to the new schemes will probably dictate their success.

I'm pulling for Moorhead. I hope he does well at State, but I'm not betting the farm until I see them play a game or two.

MattyMatt · Jul 26, 2018

DeadLast said:
Not only will they not fly under the radar, the exact opposite could happen. Too many so-called experts (and our own Mr Pooh) are picking State as a trendy pick this year.

That could happen, but I'm not jumping on the State bandwagon until I see results on the field. Too much is being made about their 19 returning starters. They will have an experience advantage, but will they have a talent advantage? Probably not, at least not against the bama's of the world.

They did have some impressive wins last year (A&M and LSU) and a close loss to bama, but they were also blown out by a couple of teams with superior talent - Auburn beat State (49-10) and Georgia won (31-3). Two cases of talent overshadowing lack of talent.

Then there is the coaching change angle. Most coaches who achieve first year success run a similar system to what was previously run. That will not be the case at State this year. Moorhead installed a version of the spread at Penn State but it was nothing like the qb run heavy system employed by Mullen. Just as important, the O-line blocking schemes will change tremendously. Most people think Mullen's system was simple - and in some ways it was - but his offensive line blocking schemes were not. They were the most unique and sophisticated in the sec. How quick and well the State linemen adjust to the new schemes will probably dictate their success.

I'm pulling for Moorhead. I hope he does well at State, but I'm not betting the farm until I see them play a game or two.

Agree...

The Pooh,lol,the name definitely fits.

GoSooners · Jul 27, 2018

I personally don't like to make GOY wagers against teams like Bama, or for that matter most blue blood programs, that late in the season vs non-blueblood programs. The biggest reason being you don't know how beat up a program like MSU will be by the time they've hit the home stretch. And the cream always starts rising to the top in November. Plus I'm not crazy about betting blindly on teams with new coaches, I don't care how many starters they return...But that's just me.

Albatross · Aug 2, 2018

Miss St will have a stout D.

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