NFL Futures & Props

These are not my plays, but these are some leans, or what I see as good value.

NFC Conference: Falcons +1100, Cowboys +1200

AFC Conference: Jaguars +900, Raiders +1700, Ravens +2000

NFC East: Cowboys +360

NFC West: Seahawks +425

AFC North: Ravens +470

AFC West: Raiders +325

MVP: Matt Ryan +2000

Most Passing Yards: Matt Ryan +1350, Garappolo +1450

Most Receiving Yards: Julio Jones +400

Most Rushing Yards: Ezekiel Elliot +285, Kareem Hunt +1100

Offensive Rookie Of The Year: Calvin Ridley +3000


All feedback is welcome, along with your own opinions of what stands out to you in these categories.

Here is the main reason I've selected Dallas to win the NFC East...

The Eagles schedule presents some challenges. I've added the Eagles preliminary line to the right hand side of this chart, pulled from 5dimes. Week 1 is a coin flip as far as I'm concerned. For conversations sake, I think we'll see a 3-1 Eagles team facing the Vikings in Week 5. They could be 2-2 if we see Atlanta and Tennessee bring their A game against the defending champs. Then Week 5 through 8 we could see a 2-2 stretch if the Vikings get their revenge, Carolina maybe, and then Week 8 we have a neutral site game in London against Jacksonville (anything can happen here). So I'm thinking it is likely we'll have a 5-3 team at the bye week. Worst case scenario is probably a 4-4 Eagles team heading into their bye week. Then it gets tough after the bye week, with non-division matchups against New Orleans, LA Rams, and Houston (three Super Bowl contenders). I think Dallas is going to split the head to head with Philly this year too. So for the second half of the season I'm going to say an at-best of 5-3. This totals to a possible 10-6 season, assuming things go well.


Other notes:
There Offensive Coordinator is out. I think Michael Bennett is bad for the team with his off the field distractions such as the Vegas "racial profiling" incident, and his recent indictment for assault charges in Houston. Michael Bennett was just part of a book released called "Things That Make White People Uncomfortable". What kind of chemistry are we going to have? What if Wentz struggles as the starter recovering from the torn ACL. Will Foles, the Super Bowl MVP, be sitting on the bench rooting against him? The called-off White House visit (which I think White House visits are a joke anyways). And Malcolm Jenkins is criticizing Jerry Jones' preemptive decision to order his Cowboys players to stand for the Anthem. Is this fuel for Dallas? The season hasn't even started, but there will certainly be some drama here.

Eagles Under 9.5 Wins (+158)

Where you bet those?

I think Ravens +470 is solid too, Pitt won a lot of close games last year and Ben is getting older. He misses any time and that division is up for grabs. But I can only get +380.

5dimes still has Ravens +470 to win the AFC North. And yes I see it more as a Pittsburgh fade than a Ravens play. Pittsburgh gets their bye in Week 7. Then Week 9 is the pivotal divisional matchup with Pittsburgh @ Baltimore. Pittsburgh's schedule gets tough after that:

Week 9: @ Baltimore (5Dimes Current Line is PICK'EM)

Week 10: Carolina
Week 11: @ Jacksonville
Week 12: @ Denver
Week 13: LA Chargers
Week 14: @ Oakland
Week 15: New England
Week 16: @ New Orleans
Week 17: Cincinnati

The last 8 games for Pitt could be 4-4 or 3-5. If Ben, Brown, or Bell is hurt....then what? It's certainly not worth the -270 odds being offered to win the AFC North.

Most Power Rankings have both Baltimore and Pittsburgh's Defense in the top 10 in Power Rankings. Baltimore has an improved group of WR's now with Crabtree, Snead and Brown. Pretty good duo at RB, Collins and Allen. Flacco isn't a guy you want in Fantasy Football, with his usual 20/13 TD/INT ratio. Flacco's career INT per pass attempt of %2.5 is average (same as Brees, better than Big Ben). The O-Line needs some work. I just think the pricing difference here of Pitt (-270) versus Baltimore (+470) is way too big for a division that could be decided by 1 game, or even a tie-breaker.

Browns and Bengals could both be better I suppose but +470 seems solid. They came within a CJ Mosley tackle of AB at the goal line of winning the division 2 years ago.

Saw this on twitter about Ravens today. Interesting tidbit fwiw.

Bill Barnwell‏Verified account @billbarnwellMore
Ravens were the last cut from the article - 2-4 in one-score games, but played the league’s easiest schedule by my method, highest fumble recovery rate, highest turnover margin all suggest decline. Not sure what to make of them (and obviously QB situation complicates things)

After further review, I love all of these player props and will be playing them...

Most Passing Yards: Matt Ryan +1350, Jimmy Garappolo +1450

Most Receiving Yards: Julio Jones +400 (I think a small play on Calvin Ridley to be Offensive Rookie of the Year at 30/1 is a great side play with this one)

Most Rushing Yards: Ezekiel Elliot +285


Additionally, I'll be playing:

NFC Conference: Falcons +950, Cowboys +1300

AFC North: Ravens +485

I plan to fade New England and Pitt for AFC representation in the Super Bowl, but have not selected a team yet. The odds to make the playoffs are LA Chargers (-140), Jacksonville (-135), and Houston (-110). I think the AFC South is going to be tough, even Tennessee could steal some division games. So even though Jacksonville and Houston are pretty strong AFC contenders, it is possible only one makes the playoffs. This being said it seems the safer play of these three teams would be to take the Chargers to win the AFC. But I still would take Jacksonville or Houston to take down the Chargers in the playoffs, so I'm stuck on this one. I think all three have value to win the AFC at roughly 10/1 odds.

Chargers it is!

AFC Conference:
I've already stated I'm not buying into the Pats and Steelers, especially at the odds being offered. I previously stated I prefer Jacksonville or Houston over the Chargers, but the main data point we need to look at is the odds to MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Looking at the AFC South, we still have to consider Tennessee making a bit of noise in this division. Add the return of Luck with the Colts and we've got a division that will very likely be won by a 9-win team. That could mean a tie-breaker, and possibly just one team making the playoffs from this division.

That being said, I'd rather give up a slight edge in "power rankings" in exchange for higher likelihood of a playoff berth. There is also an outside chance of getting a first-round bye if we see 10 or 11 wins here with the Chargers. The Chargers' odds to win the AFC has also gone from +1100 to +800.

AFC Conference Winner: Chargers +800

The Falcons and Chargers to win their respective conference are good plays IMO as per my futures thread, I feel both will win double-digit games....AFC South look to me like they'll take turns beating each other win no dominant team coming out of there...I don't like the play on Dallas, tough division and some real holes on that roster I see them as an 8-8 type of team.

I agree Baltimore some value in their division, I'm not high on Pit this season.

I am all over the chargers for conference and division as well.

Thanks for the input.

I agree the Dallas play is a bit of a stretch to MAKE it to the Super Bowl. I certainly would rather be getting 15/1 or 18/1. I am probably better off going with Dallas (+395) to win the division, or Dallas Over 8.5 Wins (+105), Dallas Over 9.5 Wins (+180). All are plus money odds, and don't require the additional playoff wins against a pretty tough NFC this year.

A few notes from random sources...

ESPN bold prediction:
[h=2]The Dallas Cowboys win one of the next three Super Bowls.[/h]It just feels as if people are sleeping on a team that went 9-7 last year while its best player/key to the offense was suspended for six games. Assuming Ezekiel Elliott plays all 16 games, there's no reason not to like the Cowboys as 2018 contenders. And with their dominant offensive line all under contract and Dak Prescott still on his rookie deal at quarterback, there's no reason to think there's any major drop-off coming in the short term.

Cowherd has a good take on this, just search the video "Colin Cowherd on why the Cowboys are the most underrated team".