Notre Dame (30-1) among best CFB title value bets
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDERPhil Steele
The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook put out its college football national title odds back on Jan. 8 and has been updating them since. Which teams provide the best value as we head into the season?
Here are six value bets from teams with odds of 10-1 or longer:
Here are six value bets from teams with odds of 10-1 or longer:
Chris Petersen has his best team ever, and that's including his days at Boise State. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Washington has nine returning starters on defense and I rate them the fifth-best defense in the country. QB Jake Browning had 43 touchdown passes in 2016 but slipped to only 19 last season; I expect him to return to his previous form. Running back Myles Gaskin has three seasons of over 1,300 rushing yards. I rate the Huskies' offensive line No. 13 in the country and they are the eighth-most experienced team in the country. If Washington gets past Auburn in the season opener, the Huskies will be favored in all of their remaining games and I have them making the College Football Playoff.
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Oklahoma led Georgia 31-14 with seconds left in the first half of the semifinal game last year but ended up losing in double overtime to the Bulldogs 54-48. Oklahoma loses Baker Mayfield, but new quarterback Kyler Murray has 16 games of experience under his belt and is a dangerous runner. Murray is surrounded on offense by my No. 5-rated offensive line, No. 4 set of receivers and No. 5 set of running backs, so the offense will still be potent. The Sooners should be favored in every game, with the toughest road tests at TCU and at West Virginia. Oklahoma figures to be in the top seven of the AP poll and is the clear-cut favorite to win the Big 12.
I had the Irish as my No. 1 most improved team last season and they went from four wins in 2016 to 10 wins in 2017. They were ranked as high as No. 3 in the country in November and favored at Miami, but after losing that game and at Stanford down the stretch last season, they are off the radar this year. The Fighting Irish return nine starters on defense and Brandon Winbush at quarterback. Their schedule isn't easy, but their four true road games are at Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Northwestern and USC; they get Michigan, Stanford and Florida State all at home. Notre Dame is No. 1 on my surprise team list this season (teams not in the top 10 that I think can win it all) and has great value at 30-1.
I consider four teams from the Big Ten East Division to be national title contenders and Michigan State has one of the best paths to making the playoff this season. The Spartans face only one team on the road that had a winning record last season (Penn State) and go from No. 129 to No. 13 in my experience rankings, including veteran QB Brian Lewerke. Michigan State has been to two Big Ten title games in the past five years; I expected odds closer to 20-1 and will take the value at 40-1.
Utah draws a tough Pac-12 schedule this year but has a great shot at making the Pac-12 title game in the winnable Pac-12 South. The Utes host USC on Oct. 20 and a win in that game would give them the tiebreaker over the Trojans. Utah does face both Stanford and Washington on the road, but last year lost by only three points to each. If the Utes knocks off Washington in the rematch in the Pac-12 title game, they would have a good shot at making the playoff. Kyle Whittingham is 11-1 in bowl games and knows how to prepare a team in the postseason. I would have the odds here at closer to 40-1, so there is great value at 100-1.
I have Iowa as the 35th-strongest team in the country, but the Hawkeyes have a great path to possibly get to the playoff because they do have the talent. Nathan Stanley is an NFL quarterback prospect and Iowa has one of the top defensive lines and secondaries in the country, as well as my No. 18-rated special teams. Iowa hosts Wisconsin on Sept. 22, and keep in mind in the past two years the Hawkeyes have knocked off No. 2 Michigan and then destroyed No. 3 Ohio State 55-24. No. 4 Penn State needed a fourth-down touchdown pass with no time left to pull out a late 21-19 win last season. A win at home against Wisconsin puts Iowa in the driver's seat for the Big Ten West title and that would put it one upset away from the playoff. I would have the number at closer to 75-1 and will take the generous 300-1 here.
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