What MLB contenders must do to catch up to the front-runners
Craig Edwards
ESPN INSIDER
With the trade deadline over, teams are pretty close to set with their rosters for the remainder of the season. Now they have to hope the moves they made were enough to make a difference.
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While the division leaders and teams in wild-card position attempt to hold on, the underdogs will have to play better to catch the favorites. Here's what some of those underdogs need to do to make a move up the standings.
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Seattle Mariners in the AL Wild Card race: Seager, Segura snap slumps; no rust for Cano
Heading into their game on July 4, the Mariners were 55-31 and on the heels of an eight-game win streak. Their lead over the A's for the second wild card stood at eight games. They would win just 9 of 21 games the remainder of July and then lost their first four in August to fall behind Oakland.
The Mariners were fortunate to jump out to that big lead in the first place as their offense, rotation and bullpen all were pretty close to average for much of the season. The culprit over the past month has been an anemic offense. Since July 4, the Mariners as a team are hitting a Freddy Galvis-like .236/.293/.359, with only the Detroit Tigers having worse production over that span.
Jean Segura (.220/.242/.288 since the All-Star break), Kyle Seager (.209/.261/.395) and Ryon Healy (.222/.286/.444) all have been terrible during the Mariners' slide. To get back in the race, Seattle's offense needs to get going. The good news for the Mariners is that Seager and Segura have track records that suggest they will play better. Plus, Robinson Cano is almost back from his performance-enhancing-drug suspension. For the Mariners to get back in front of the A's in the wild-card race, the lineup is going to have to improve.
New York Yankees in the AL East race: Severino, new additions need to right rotation
The Yankees will very likely be in the postseason. Unfortunately for them, it now appears more likely than not that they will be subjected to the vagaries of a one-game playoff. While the AL East was a dead heat for much of the season, after this weekend's four-game sweep, the Yankees have slipped well behind the Red Sox for the division lead. The race isn't over, however, as the Yankees still have a ton of talent, a favorable remaining schedule and six meetings with Boston in the last 12 games of the season.
The numbers suggest the Yankees bullpen has struggled since the All-Star break, with an ERA near 6.00, but the pen has pitched better than that. Relievers are striking out 28 percent of batters in the second half and issuing walks just 8 percent of the time, producing a FIP in the mid-3.00s. That bad luck should turn in the Yankees' favor, but if they want to get close to the Red Sox, their starters must do better. With an ERA and FIP near 5, the Yankees' starters simply have stunk since the break. Masahiro Tanaka has pitched well, but Luis Severino, CC Sabathia and Sonny Gray all have struggled. To catch the Red Sox, Severino needs to get things right and new acquisitions J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn have to step in and contribute right away.
Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central race: Win head-to-head matchups with Cubs
While the Cubs and Brewers are close in the standings, most projection systems expect the Cubs to take the NL Central by three or four games. The Brewers are expected to get to 90 wins, but the Cubs' superior talent in the rotation and better all-around players project to be too much.
The Brewers couldn't find a starting-pitching match at the trade deadline. Waiver claim Jordan Lyles might help there or in the bullpen, but the club could be active in the trade market the rest of the month. Jordan Zimmermann, James Shields and Matt Harvey are names to keep an eye on, but none of those guys will close the Brewers' gap in the division race alone.
So the Brewers need to take advantage of their opportunities against the Cubs. Beginning with a two-game series on Aug. 14, Milwaukee will play against Chicago eight times over the next month. Taking six of eight would go a long way toward erasing whatever talent deficit the Brewers might have against the Cubs and give the division advantage to Milwaukee.
Colorado Rockies in the NL West race: Jon Gray needs to be an ace
With the Dodgers making big moves to bring in Manny Machado and Brian Dozier and the Diamondbacks making a series of smaller moves to add Eduardo Escobar, Matt Andriese and Brad Ziegler, the Rockies feel like something of an afterthought in the NL West. But Colorado is right there with the two favorites in the standings. Even so, the team's offseason moves haven't gone as planned, with Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw failing to help the Rockies capture the bullpen magic that propelled them to the playoffs a year ago.
Newly acquired Seunghwan Oh should help the bullpen some, and Adam Ottavino has been great all year, but if the team is going to catch the division leaders, the starting pitching is going to have to do the heavy lifting. That starts with the recently demoted Jon Gray.
The first three months of the season, Gray put up one of the more unusual lines possible, with a FIP close to 3.00 but an ERA near 6.00 in what would have been the biggest differential in history. Whether it was just bad luck or Gray needing some fixing, he has been dealing in his return, giving up just five runs in 29⅔ innings (1.52 ERA) and going at least seven innings in each of his past four starts. If the Rockies are going to stay in the race, they will need Gray to continue his strong run.
Oakland Athletics in the AL West race: Put the pressure on
<strike></strike>The A's aren't just being chased by the Mariners in the AL West. They are also now chasing the Astros, surprisingly enough. Can the A's really hang with the defending champs? They've actually been doing just that for a while. From April 10 through Aug. 4, the Astros put up an impressive 62-39 record, which is a 99-win pace over 162 games. During that same time, the A's put up the very same 62-39 record. The only difference between the clubs' records is the first two weeks of the season. Since June 15, the A's are a remarkable 32-10 and are being led by their bullpen and their offense.
Since June 15, there are 31 American League players with at least 100 plate appearances and wRC+ at least 30 percent better than league average. Oakland has five of those players, the most of any team. With Matt Chapman playing like an MVP, Stephen Piscotty rediscovering his power, Khris Davis continuing to mash, Jed Lowrie defying his age and Mark Canha destroying lefties, the A's have had the best offense in baseball for nearly two months.
The bullpen has been similarly great, with Blake Treinen, Lou Trivino and Emilio Pagan surprising with big contributions. The addition of Jeurys Familia should help further. Oakland isn't likely to keep pace with Houston going forward, but it is a lot closer than anyone could have expected. The Astros played a lot of extra games last season to bring home the title, and the long summer could wear them down. If the Oakland offense keeps giving the team leads and the bullpen continues to close out games, the A's just might make a race out of the AL West.<strike></strike>
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Heading into their game on July 4, the Mariners were 55-31 and on the heels of an eight-game win streak. Their lead over the A's for the second wild card stood at eight games. They would win just 9 of 21 games the remainder of July and then lost their first four in August to fall behind Oakland.
The Mariners were fortunate to jump out to that big lead in the first place as their offense, rotation and bullpen all were pretty close to average for much of the season. The culprit over the past month has been an anemic offense. Since July 4, the Mariners as a team are hitting a Freddy Galvis-like .236/.293/.359, with only the Detroit Tigers having worse production over that span.
Jean Segura (.220/.242/.288 since the All-Star break), Kyle Seager (.209/.261/.395) and Ryon Healy (.222/.286/.444) all have been terrible during the Mariners' slide. To get back in the race, Seattle's offense needs to get going. The good news for the Mariners is that Seager and Segura have track records that suggest they will play better. Plus, Robinson Cano is almost back from his performance-enhancing-drug suspension. For the Mariners to get back in front of the A's in the wild-card race, the lineup is going to have to improve.
The Yankees will very likely be in the postseason. Unfortunately for them, it now appears more likely than not that they will be subjected to the vagaries of a one-game playoff. While the AL East was a dead heat for much of the season, after this weekend's four-game sweep, the Yankees have slipped well behind the Red Sox for the division lead. The race isn't over, however, as the Yankees still have a ton of talent, a favorable remaining schedule and six meetings with Boston in the last 12 games of the season.
The numbers suggest the Yankees bullpen has struggled since the All-Star break, with an ERA near 6.00, but the pen has pitched better than that. Relievers are striking out 28 percent of batters in the second half and issuing walks just 8 percent of the time, producing a FIP in the mid-3.00s. That bad luck should turn in the Yankees' favor, but if they want to get close to the Red Sox, their starters must do better. With an ERA and FIP near 5, the Yankees' starters simply have stunk since the break. Masahiro Tanaka has pitched well, but Luis Severino, CC Sabathia and Sonny Gray all have struggled. To catch the Red Sox, Severino needs to get things right and new acquisitions J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn have to step in and contribute right away.
While the Cubs and Brewers are close in the standings, most projection systems expect the Cubs to take the NL Central by three or four games. The Brewers are expected to get to 90 wins, but the Cubs' superior talent in the rotation and better all-around players project to be too much.
The Brewers couldn't find a starting-pitching match at the trade deadline. Waiver claim Jordan Lyles might help there or in the bullpen, but the club could be active in the trade market the rest of the month. Jordan Zimmermann, James Shields and Matt Harvey are names to keep an eye on, but none of those guys will close the Brewers' gap in the division race alone.
So the Brewers need to take advantage of their opportunities against the Cubs. Beginning with a two-game series on Aug. 14, Milwaukee will play against Chicago eight times over the next month. Taking six of eight would go a long way toward erasing whatever talent deficit the Brewers might have against the Cubs and give the division advantage to Milwaukee.
With the Dodgers making big moves to bring in Manny Machado and Brian Dozier and the Diamondbacks making a series of smaller moves to add Eduardo Escobar, Matt Andriese and Brad Ziegler, the Rockies feel like something of an afterthought in the NL West. But Colorado is right there with the two favorites in the standings. Even so, the team's offseason moves haven't gone as planned, with Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw failing to help the Rockies capture the bullpen magic that propelled them to the playoffs a year ago.
Newly acquired Seunghwan Oh should help the bullpen some, and Adam Ottavino has been great all year, but if the team is going to catch the division leaders, the starting pitching is going to have to do the heavy lifting. That starts with the recently demoted Jon Gray.
The first three months of the season, Gray put up one of the more unusual lines possible, with a FIP close to 3.00 but an ERA near 6.00 in what would have been the biggest differential in history. Whether it was just bad luck or Gray needing some fixing, he has been dealing in his return, giving up just five runs in 29⅔ innings (1.52 ERA) and going at least seven innings in each of his past four starts. If the Rockies are going to stay in the race, they will need Gray to continue his strong run.
<strike></strike>The A's aren't just being chased by the Mariners in the AL West. They are also now chasing the Astros, surprisingly enough. Can the A's really hang with the defending champs? They've actually been doing just that for a while. From April 10 through Aug. 4, the Astros put up an impressive 62-39 record, which is a 99-win pace over 162 games. During that same time, the A's put up the very same 62-39 record. The only difference between the clubs' records is the first two weeks of the season. Since June 15, the A's are a remarkable 32-10 and are being led by their bullpen and their offense.
Since June 15, there are 31 American League players with at least 100 plate appearances and wRC+ at least 30 percent better than league average. Oakland has five of those players, the most of any team. With Matt Chapman playing like an MVP, Stephen Piscotty rediscovering his power, Khris Davis continuing to mash, Jed Lowrie defying his age and Mark Canha destroying lefties, the A's have had the best offense in baseball for nearly two months.
The bullpen has been similarly great, with Blake Treinen, Lou Trivino and Emilio Pagan surprising with big contributions. The addition of Jeurys Familia should help further. Oakland isn't likely to keep pace with Houston going forward, but it is a lot closer than anyone could have expected. The Astros played a lot of extra games last season to bring home the title, and the long summer could wear them down. If the Oakland offense keeps giving the team leads and the bullpen continues to close out games, the A's just might make a race out of the AL West.<strike></strike>
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