What we learned about rookie RBs during their preseason debuts

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What we learned about rookie RBs during their preseason debuts

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

When the first full weekend of preseason football games began, five rookie running backs went among the top 60 picks in ESPN
average live drafts
. Sure, that is a bit aggressive, since none of them had proved anything at the NFL level and rookies generally tend to break the hearts of fantasy managers. Still, there was little argument coming from me on this one. Each of these touted first-year players seemed deserving of our attention due to the potential upside, especially considering the underwhelming veteran running backs they were pushing aside.


Unfortunately, we can cross one of the highly touted rookies off the list.

Derrius Guice, a second-round selection by the Washington Redskins out of LSU, appeared to be on his way toward a major, intriguing role for a team that struggled to run the ball last season with the likes of Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine. Instead, Guice is out for the season after he tore the ACL in his left knee in Thursday's preseason opener against the New England Patriots.

The Redskins, 28th in rushing yards a season ago, will turn back to <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> the uninspiring duo of Kelley and Perine, while diminutive Chris Thompson likely will handle the bulk of third-down duties and catch many a pass -- when he can suit up. Thompson broke his leg late last season and did not play in Thursday's game, and the team has not shied away from sharing its concerns about his potential workload.

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While Guice was the No. 2 rookie running back in ADP and my No. 20 option until the weekend, his replacements will not garner nearly the same level of interest. In fact, since neither Kelley nor Perine figures to win the starting job any time soon, a time-share could be in play, which helps nobody statistically. Neither player was effective last season, nor is either much of a receiver from the backfield, even though Thompson's absence affords such opportunity. I think Perine is the slightly better choice, but I would not spend a pick in the first seven rounds to find out.

As for the other rookies, there is so much eagerness to acquire them if they play well in August, which seems ridiculous on the surface. Yes, these players are good and can thrive, but it comes down to volume and opportunity.

The New York Giants spent the No. 2 overall pick on Penn State's Saquon Barkley. I would argue that it does not matter what he does in preseason games, but because he broke his very first carry for an electrifying 39 yards, people got excited. Barkley's other three rushing attempts totaled 4 yards, which most would say is irrelevant, and perhaps it is. I suspect Barkley will leapfrog Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown for the No. 5 ADP spot any day now, though that might seem optimistic.

The other hotshot rookies are Denver's Royce Freeman, Tampa Bay's Ronald Jones and Seattle's Rashaad Penny. Freeman broke a 23-yarder for a touchdown and totaled 38 yards on four totes against the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday, while his main competition, Devontae Booker, ran twice for 7 yards. I have ranked Freeman as an RB2 all along, making me one of the few doing so ahead of Penny, who averaged 2 yards in nine carries on Thursday against the Indianapolis Colts.


Obviously, none of this is conclusive evidence of anything, but if it alters opinions, then it can alter values, deserving or not. Freeman already passed Tennessee's Derrick Henry in ADP. What really changed? Well, nothing. Penny, however, might be behind Chris Carson on Seattle's depth chart. Jones ran eight times for 9 yards, with a short touchdown, against the Miami Dolphins. Let us see how Week 2 of the preseason goes because it can all change again!

Fantasy managers might not believe it, but statistics in meaningless preseason games do not matter much for our purposes, a claim also made by coaches and other front-office personnel. After all, so many veteran stars on both sides of the ball don't play much.

In many cases, the decisions on key roles have been set for at least for the first week or two of the season. Tampa's Jones could struggle again this week and might not emerge as his team's best running back until October. Who knows. It should not affect the fantasy investment. Frankly, it tends to create buying opportunities. Injuries are the real story in preseason games, and Guice was not the only valuable player who needed medical attention.

Here are other quick thoughts on the weekend results, mainly regarding injuries.

-- The San Francisco 49ers lost several key offensive players in Thursday's loss to the Dallas Cowboys, including running backs Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida, plus tight end George Kittle. McKinnon's injury is a muscle strain, so he avoided catastrophe. Breida and Kittle have shoulder injuries and might need a few weeks off. While neither is that popular in ESPN ADP, each still could have value as a fantasy option, so do not cross either off your lists. With McKinnon yet to prove himself as a feature back, Breida and Joe Williams certainly could matter.

<strike></strike>-- I have hardly invested in the Colts because quarterback Andrew Luck needs to prove that his right shoulder is sound. Luck completed six of nine passes against the Seahawks, leading the club to a pair of field goals, but his play was cautious and he was quick to avoid the rush; he barely threw the football downfield. We learned little, and that will likely remain the case throughout the month. Hey, if you believe, go for it. The Colts did lose rookie wide receiver Deon Cain to an ACL tear, ending the season for a popular sleeper in deeper formats.

-- Sam Darnold, the second of five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2018 draft, excited New York Jets fans, but Josh McCown remains the starter for now. Still, we draft rookie running backs because they can become instant fantasy stars. Quarterbacks rarely do, so even if Darnold or Baker Mayfield or any other rookie quarterback starts in Week 1, avoid them. There is far too much depth at the position to take a chance.

-- Houston Texans running back Lamar Miller has seen his fantasy value crater after a ho-hum 2017 season, but rumor has it that he improved his conditioning. Miller was the rare running back to surpass 50 rushing yards in 12 or more games last season, but it would have been nice if he had reached 100 yards a few times. He never did. Perhaps fantasy managers should give him a chance to be a potential RB2. For now, he is being drafted after those five rookies mentioned previously -- which will be four once Guice ceases to be chosen.

<strike></strike>-- Patriots quarterbacks did not target newcomer wide receiver Eric Decker, which doesn't mean that will be the case come September, especially with Julian Edelman out for the month due to a four-game suspension. That said, I do not see Decker handling a large role. I can find other younger WR5 and WR6 options to invest in, even if those guys do not get to play with Tom Brady

-- Carolina Panthers rookie DJ Moore tallied 75 receiving yards against the Buffalo Bills, averaging nearly 19 yards per catch. Moore, the first wide receiver selected in the draft, is not getting much fantasy attention, but I could see him starting in the slot right away and making an impact. I just cannot see Torrey Smith having a big season on the outside.

-- It does not matter in the least for fantasy that the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles signed quarterback Christian Hackenberg. Carson Wentz is fine, as is Nick Foles. Hackenberg is not even the No. 3 QB, Nate Sudfeld is. This is just another arm to get through the meaningless preseason, but I found it curious that news of the signing led fantasy managers to worry about Wentz. Do not worry.<strike></strike>
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