Ultimate fantasy football draft board: Perfect picks for each round
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Fantasy football drafts are all about collecting the best possible value, but we all know which special players we want on our squads. Whether it's the up-and-coming running back on our favorite team, a sleeper tight end no one is talking about or this year's big breakout at wide receiver, these players add an extra level of excitement to the roster construction process.
Below is my round-by-round analysis that will give you an idea of what's going through my head on draft day. I have my rankings. I have my projections. I've set up tiers. And I certainly have a few of my favorite targets circled and in the queue. This is my recipe for a 2018 fantasy football championship:
The coreBelow is my round-by-round analysis that will give you an idea of what's going through my head on draft day. I have my rankings. I have my projections. I've set up tiers. And I certainly have a few of my favorite targets circled and in the queue. This is my recipe for a 2018 fantasy football championship:
Round 1: Le'Veon Bell (or one of the star running backs)
As usual, I need to start out by noting the obvious: Most of us don't get to pick our draft spot. If I get to choose, I generally will go as early as possible. In 2018, that will mean the ability to get my hands on Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley II or David Johnson. These are the three players with the best chance to reach 400 touches and/or 2,000 scrimmage yards. Ezekiel Elliott belongs in this tier in non-PPR leagues.
The first round is full of running back options, and we can't go wrong with the four aforementioned stars or the likes of Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette and Melvin Gordon. Of course, wide receivers are safer investments (fewer injuries), and there are some great options available here. Antonio Brown has finished as the top-scoring wide receiver in fantasy each of the past four seasons and is my No. 5 player overall. DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr. will also cost a first-round pick in most drafts, and Julio Jones and Keenan Allen are also fine investments at the turn.
<strike></strike>Round 2: Dalvin Cook or Julio Jones
If I don't take a running back in the first round, that position will almost always be my target here in Round 2. The fact is, running back dries up very quickly this year, so while we shouldn't force a position, leaning toward running back in the early rounds makes a lot of sense. Though backs are more risky than wideouts, I have no issue starting RB-RB if I'm able to get my hands on a pair of backs with top-five upside.
Cook is certainly on that short list of backs who can reach the top five. Cook had racked up 74 carries and 11 receptions when he went down with a torn ACL in Week 4 of his rookie season. Cook was averaging 4.78 yards per carry, and only Gurley had more carries through Week 3. The 23-year-old is positioned for a workhorse role in a very good offense, and he's savvy enough as a receiver that 50-plus receptions is attainable.
If I decide to go wide receiver here, Jones is an outstanding target near the first/second-round turn. Jones is on many people's "avoid" list despite ranking top three in the league in receiving yards for the fourth season in a row in 2017. Touchdowns have limited Jones' fantasy output in recent years, but his total of three scores last season was a product of poor luck. Jones ranked seventh at the position in end zone targets (16), fourth in OTD (8.6) and is a near-lock to score more touchdowns in 2018. Don't be surprised if he leads all wide receivers in fantasy points in 2018.
If not Cook or Jones, I'll certainly have plenty of other top options here. Toward the end of the round, I'll be looking at Devonta Freeman and Christian McCaffrey, as there's a noticeable drop-off at the position from that point on. Rob Gronkowski will also be on my radar here.
<strike></strike>Round 3: Larry Fitzgerald or Kenyan Drake
I'm not going to lie. Drake and especially Fitzgerald are not the most exciting picks. Drake is former third-round pick entering his third season, has never been a feature back and has ageless Frank Gore on his heels for snaps. That said, there's plenty of reason to believe Drake can explode into a fantasy star. Promoted to lead back duties in Week 9 last season, Drake averaged 5.0 yards per carry (2.5 yards after contact) on 123 rushes and caught 29 passes while posting the seventh-most fantasy points at the position. He ranks top five in YPC (5.0) and YAC (2.3) on 166 career carries.
If looking to avoid the risk of the unknown with Drake, we can pivot to the ultimate "known" in the form of Fitzgerald. The 35-year-old future Hall of Famer has caught at least 107 passes each of the past three seasons, clearing 1,023 yards and six touchdowns all three times. Only three wide receivers scored more fantasy points in 2017, and Fitzgerald remains positioned as a short- and midrange target hog this season. Fitzgerald has been a value in drafts for years, and though he'll cost a bit more in 2018, he's well worth the third-round investment.
Though I'm worried about his receiving efficiency, Jordan Howard is one of the league's best rushers and is a terrific alternative to Drake. Vikings wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are also good third-round targets, and I'm on T.Y. Hilton here as long as Andrew Luck remains healthy.
Round 4: Demaryius Thomas
Like Fitzgerald, Thomas is about as reliable as they come in PPR, and it's hard not to love him in the fourth round. Believe it or not, Thomas has finished no worse than 16th at wide receiver in fantasy points each of the past six seasons. Thomas has ranked no lower than 12th in receptions and 18th in receiving yards during the span, but he hasn't eclipsed six touchdowns since 2014. Of course, Denver has had major quarterback issues over the past few seasons, so it's fair to project the 30-year-old for more scoring opportunities with Case Keenum under center in 2018.
If I want a higher ceiling here, Allen Robinson, Josh Gordon and Amari Cooper are the guys who would be on my radar.
Round 5
<enter style="box-sizing: border-box;" back="" here="" rookie="" running=""></enter>Though it's tempting to fade the entire middle-round tier of running backs, there are some upside rookie backs I am looking at in this range. It's very possible one or two of these backs will be gone by now, but this is the time to pounce if Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones or Rashaad Penny is available.
Freeman is a question mark as a receiver/blocker, but he shouldn't have trouble moving well past underwhelming Devontae Booker on the depth chart. Jones' size (205 pounds) raises concerns about his ability to be a workhorse, but he's a big-play machine with only Charles Sims and Peyton Barber in his way for lead back duties. Penny may start slow with Chris Carson positioned for a significant role, but the first-round pick and Kareem Hunt comp shouldn't need long to emerge as run-heavy Seattle's feature back.
We need to keep an eye on his recovery from surgery, but Alshon Jeffery is a good option if we want to go wide receiver here.
The middle roundsAs usual, I need to start out by noting the obvious: Most of us don't get to pick our draft spot. If I get to choose, I generally will go as early as possible. In 2018, that will mean the ability to get my hands on Le'Veon Bell, Todd Gurley II or David Johnson. These are the three players with the best chance to reach 400 touches and/or 2,000 scrimmage yards. Ezekiel Elliott belongs in this tier in non-PPR leagues.
The first round is full of running back options, and we can't go wrong with the four aforementioned stars or the likes of Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette and Melvin Gordon. Of course, wide receivers are safer investments (fewer injuries), and there are some great options available here. Antonio Brown has finished as the top-scoring wide receiver in fantasy each of the past four seasons and is my No. 5 player overall. DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr. will also cost a first-round pick in most drafts, and Julio Jones and Keenan Allen are also fine investments at the turn.
<strike></strike>Round 2: Dalvin Cook or Julio Jones
If I don't take a running back in the first round, that position will almost always be my target here in Round 2. The fact is, running back dries up very quickly this year, so while we shouldn't force a position, leaning toward running back in the early rounds makes a lot of sense. Though backs are more risky than wideouts, I have no issue starting RB-RB if I'm able to get my hands on a pair of backs with top-five upside.
Cook is certainly on that short list of backs who can reach the top five. Cook had racked up 74 carries and 11 receptions when he went down with a torn ACL in Week 4 of his rookie season. Cook was averaging 4.78 yards per carry, and only Gurley had more carries through Week 3. The 23-year-old is positioned for a workhorse role in a very good offense, and he's savvy enough as a receiver that 50-plus receptions is attainable.
If I decide to go wide receiver here, Jones is an outstanding target near the first/second-round turn. Jones is on many people's "avoid" list despite ranking top three in the league in receiving yards for the fourth season in a row in 2017. Touchdowns have limited Jones' fantasy output in recent years, but his total of three scores last season was a product of poor luck. Jones ranked seventh at the position in end zone targets (16), fourth in OTD (8.6) and is a near-lock to score more touchdowns in 2018. Don't be surprised if he leads all wide receivers in fantasy points in 2018.
If not Cook or Jones, I'll certainly have plenty of other top options here. Toward the end of the round, I'll be looking at Devonta Freeman and Christian McCaffrey, as there's a noticeable drop-off at the position from that point on. Rob Gronkowski will also be on my radar here.
<strike></strike>Round 3: Larry Fitzgerald or Kenyan Drake
I'm not going to lie. Drake and especially Fitzgerald are not the most exciting picks. Drake is former third-round pick entering his third season, has never been a feature back and has ageless Frank Gore on his heels for snaps. That said, there's plenty of reason to believe Drake can explode into a fantasy star. Promoted to lead back duties in Week 9 last season, Drake averaged 5.0 yards per carry (2.5 yards after contact) on 123 rushes and caught 29 passes while posting the seventh-most fantasy points at the position. He ranks top five in YPC (5.0) and YAC (2.3) on 166 career carries.
If looking to avoid the risk of the unknown with Drake, we can pivot to the ultimate "known" in the form of Fitzgerald. The 35-year-old future Hall of Famer has caught at least 107 passes each of the past three seasons, clearing 1,023 yards and six touchdowns all three times. Only three wide receivers scored more fantasy points in 2017, and Fitzgerald remains positioned as a short- and midrange target hog this season. Fitzgerald has been a value in drafts for years, and though he'll cost a bit more in 2018, he's well worth the third-round investment.
Though I'm worried about his receiving efficiency, Jordan Howard is one of the league's best rushers and is a terrific alternative to Drake. Vikings wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are also good third-round targets, and I'm on T.Y. Hilton here as long as Andrew Luck remains healthy.
Round 4: Demaryius Thomas
Like Fitzgerald, Thomas is about as reliable as they come in PPR, and it's hard not to love him in the fourth round. Believe it or not, Thomas has finished no worse than 16th at wide receiver in fantasy points each of the past six seasons. Thomas has ranked no lower than 12th in receptions and 18th in receiving yards during the span, but he hasn't eclipsed six touchdowns since 2014. Of course, Denver has had major quarterback issues over the past few seasons, so it's fair to project the 30-year-old for more scoring opportunities with Case Keenum under center in 2018.
If I want a higher ceiling here, Allen Robinson, Josh Gordon and Amari Cooper are the guys who would be on my radar.
Round 5
<enter style="box-sizing: border-box;" back="" here="" rookie="" running=""></enter>Though it's tempting to fade the entire middle-round tier of running backs, there are some upside rookie backs I am looking at in this range. It's very possible one or two of these backs will be gone by now, but this is the time to pounce if Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones or Rashaad Penny is available.
Freeman is a question mark as a receiver/blocker, but he shouldn't have trouble moving well past underwhelming Devontae Booker on the depth chart. Jones' size (205 pounds) raises concerns about his ability to be a workhorse, but he's a big-play machine with only Charles Sims and Peyton Barber in his way for lead back duties. Penny may start slow with Chris Carson positioned for a significant role, but the first-round pick and Kareem Hunt comp shouldn't need long to emerge as run-heavy Seattle's feature back.
We need to keep an eye on his recovery from surgery, but Alshon Jeffery is a good option if we want to go wide receiver here.
<strike></strike>Round 6: Corey Davis
The core of my team is in place ... it's time to start filling gaps and adding depth. I obviously want players with upside, but I also want guys I feel comfortable placing in my Week 1 lineup. This isn't the time to select high-ceiling handcuffs like Nick Chubb and C.J. Anderson. We'll save the fliers for later.
Instead, I'll be looking to a player like Davis, who has "second-year breakout" written all over him. Granted there's some risk here, but Davis was the No. 5 pick in the 2017 draft for a reason. Davis quietly played a lot as a rookie. Including two playoff games, he was on the field for 89 percent of the team's pass plays during his 12 full games and handled 6.3 targets per game (20 percent share). He's positioned as Tennessee's clear No. 1 wide receiver, and this offense has a good chance to make a big leap forward with Sean McVay protégé Matt LaFleur now calling the plays.
Round 6 too early to take this risk for you? Robert Woods is a much safer option. Even with Brandin Cooks in the mix, Woods is still a good bet to pace the high-scoring Rams in targets this season. I also like Rex Burkhead at running back (his ADP is on the rise with Sony Michel dealing with an injury). Greg Olsen is a terrific tight end target, but there's a slightly better value one round later in the form of …
Round 7: Delanie Walker
The sixth/seventh round has emerged as a good spot to attack the tight end position. Olsen and Walker are as reliable as they come, Jimmy Graham has huge touchdown upside and, if we're looking to go younger, Evan Engram occasionally falls into this area.
Though any of these tight ends are serviceable starters -- important considering the drop-off at the position around this point -- Walker is my favorite target. He comes the cheapest here in the seventh round despite finishing top five at the position in fantasy points each of the past three seasons. Walker is also a candidate for more touchdowns after finding the end zone three times last season despite a career-high 12 end zone targets.
Emmanuel Sanders and Marshawn Lynch are two veterans I've selected in this range a lot this year and both have top-20 upside at their positions.
Round 8: Isaiah Crowell
It may take a week or two, but I don't believe it's going to take the industry long to start ranking Crowell as a weekly RB2 (or at least flex) in 12-team leagues. The former Brown is positioned for a massive role as the Jets' clear lead back. Elijah McGuire was expected to be a threat in passing situations, but the second-year back is expected to miss at least a few weeks with a foot injury. Crowell has finished top 20 in carries and top 30 in targets at the position each of the past two seasons. He's averaging a healthy 4.47 yards per carry during the span and hit a career-high 2.0 yards after contact in 2017. Granted, the Jets' offense is not particularly good, but volume is king in fantasy football, and Crowell has a path to a ton of it.
If Crowell is gone or I need help at wide receiver here, Randall Cobb is my favorite target, though his recovery from an ankle injury needs to be monitored.
<strike></strike>Round 9: Jordan Reed
It makes no difference to me if I selected Gronkowski in the third round, Walker in the seventh or no tight end at all; if it's the ninth round (perhaps even the eighth) and Reed is still on the board, he's my pick. While everyone else is mocking Reed's shaky durability, I will take advantage of this low-risk, high-ceiling opportunity. Despite missing six games during the span, Reed finished as a top-nine fantasy tight end in both 2015 and 2016. He ranked first at the position in fantasy points per game both seasons. Reed ranked eighth in the category in six games last season. As long as Reed is healthy, he will be atop my queue in the middle rounds. The upside here is too good to pass on.
Robby Anderson is another one of my favorite midround targets and can be had in the ninth round. If I don't want to wait at quarterback any longer, Carson Wentz (as long as he remains on pace to return for Week 1), Kirk Cousins and Ben Roethlisberger are the best targets.
Round 10: Andrew Luck
OK, time for some substantive quarterback talk. Attacking this position is more about strategy and tiers than it is specific players. Outside of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady (inexplicably being drafted in the third round of most ESPN drafts), the order and ADP of most quarterbacks differs drastically by site and depends on the savviness of your league. Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson usually go too early for me. The likes of Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford and the aforementioned Wentz, Cousins and Roethlisberger are fine starters and worth our attention about this point during the draft.
Luck can generally be picked somewhere in this range, and if we can get him in the 10th, that's a strong investment. Is he risky after missing all of 2017 with a shoulder injury? Of course. But don't forget how good Luck was prior to the injury. He's finished three of his past four seasons as a top-four fantasy quarterback and has managed 33-plus touchdowns during the past two seasons in which he's played 15-plus games. Luck has elite upside and, barring a setback, is a no-brainer at this point in the draft.
Considering the massive upside, landing the Luck-Reed duo could be a league-winning strategy in 2018.
Other players I have my eyes on in the 10th round include Ty Montgomery and Giovani Bernard at running back and Kelvin Benjamin at wide receiver.
The late-round fliersThe core of my team is in place ... it's time to start filling gaps and adding depth. I obviously want players with upside, but I also want guys I feel comfortable placing in my Week 1 lineup. This isn't the time to select high-ceiling handcuffs like Nick Chubb and C.J. Anderson. We'll save the fliers for later.
Instead, I'll be looking to a player like Davis, who has "second-year breakout" written all over him. Granted there's some risk here, but Davis was the No. 5 pick in the 2017 draft for a reason. Davis quietly played a lot as a rookie. Including two playoff games, he was on the field for 89 percent of the team's pass plays during his 12 full games and handled 6.3 targets per game (20 percent share). He's positioned as Tennessee's clear No. 1 wide receiver, and this offense has a good chance to make a big leap forward with Sean McVay protégé Matt LaFleur now calling the plays.
Round 6 too early to take this risk for you? Robert Woods is a much safer option. Even with Brandin Cooks in the mix, Woods is still a good bet to pace the high-scoring Rams in targets this season. I also like Rex Burkhead at running back (his ADP is on the rise with Sony Michel dealing with an injury). Greg Olsen is a terrific tight end target, but there's a slightly better value one round later in the form of …
Round 7: Delanie Walker
The sixth/seventh round has emerged as a good spot to attack the tight end position. Olsen and Walker are as reliable as they come, Jimmy Graham has huge touchdown upside and, if we're looking to go younger, Evan Engram occasionally falls into this area.
Though any of these tight ends are serviceable starters -- important considering the drop-off at the position around this point -- Walker is my favorite target. He comes the cheapest here in the seventh round despite finishing top five at the position in fantasy points each of the past three seasons. Walker is also a candidate for more touchdowns after finding the end zone three times last season despite a career-high 12 end zone targets.
Emmanuel Sanders and Marshawn Lynch are two veterans I've selected in this range a lot this year and both have top-20 upside at their positions.
Round 8: Isaiah Crowell
It may take a week or two, but I don't believe it's going to take the industry long to start ranking Crowell as a weekly RB2 (or at least flex) in 12-team leagues. The former Brown is positioned for a massive role as the Jets' clear lead back. Elijah McGuire was expected to be a threat in passing situations, but the second-year back is expected to miss at least a few weeks with a foot injury. Crowell has finished top 20 in carries and top 30 in targets at the position each of the past two seasons. He's averaging a healthy 4.47 yards per carry during the span and hit a career-high 2.0 yards after contact in 2017. Granted, the Jets' offense is not particularly good, but volume is king in fantasy football, and Crowell has a path to a ton of it.
If Crowell is gone or I need help at wide receiver here, Randall Cobb is my favorite target, though his recovery from an ankle injury needs to be monitored.
<strike></strike>Round 9: Jordan Reed
It makes no difference to me if I selected Gronkowski in the third round, Walker in the seventh or no tight end at all; if it's the ninth round (perhaps even the eighth) and Reed is still on the board, he's my pick. While everyone else is mocking Reed's shaky durability, I will take advantage of this low-risk, high-ceiling opportunity. Despite missing six games during the span, Reed finished as a top-nine fantasy tight end in both 2015 and 2016. He ranked first at the position in fantasy points per game both seasons. Reed ranked eighth in the category in six games last season. As long as Reed is healthy, he will be atop my queue in the middle rounds. The upside here is too good to pass on.
Robby Anderson is another one of my favorite midround targets and can be had in the ninth round. If I don't want to wait at quarterback any longer, Carson Wentz (as long as he remains on pace to return for Week 1), Kirk Cousins and Ben Roethlisberger are the best targets.
Round 10: Andrew Luck
OK, time for some substantive quarterback talk. Attacking this position is more about strategy and tiers than it is specific players. Outside of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady (inexplicably being drafted in the third round of most ESPN drafts), the order and ADP of most quarterbacks differs drastically by site and depends on the savviness of your league. Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson usually go too early for me. The likes of Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford and the aforementioned Wentz, Cousins and Roethlisberger are fine starters and worth our attention about this point during the draft.
Luck can generally be picked somewhere in this range, and if we can get him in the 10th, that's a strong investment. Is he risky after missing all of 2017 with a shoulder injury? Of course. But don't forget how good Luck was prior to the injury. He's finished three of his past four seasons as a top-four fantasy quarterback and has managed 33-plus touchdowns during the past two seasons in which he's played 15-plus games. Luck has elite upside and, barring a setback, is a no-brainer at this point in the draft.
Considering the massive upside, landing the Luck-Reed duo could be a league-winning strategy in 2018.
Other players I have my eyes on in the 10th round include Ty Montgomery and Giovani Bernard at running back and Kelvin Benjamin at wide receiver.
<strike></strike>Round 11: Josh Doctson or Cameron Meredith
We're in the late rounds, so it's time to start throwing darts at potential league-winning players.
I think it's safe to say Doctson underwhelmed during his de facto first NFL season, but I'm not throwing in the towel on the 2016 first-round pick just yet. Doctson wasn't promoted into full-time duties until Week 7 but still finished seventh in the NFL with 17 end zone targets. He's a super-athletic 6-foot-2 perimeter threat who is ticketed for No. 1 duties and plenty of goal-line work.
Meredith is certainly a wild card after last offseason's devastating knee injury, but it's hard not to be excited about a potential Drew Brees-to-Meredith connection. Meredith has caught a ridiculous 70 percent of his career targets, and his reliable hands figure to make him a favorite target of Brees in the short-to-intermediate area. There's WR2 upside here for a player who posted a line of 66 catches for 888 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games (primarily with Matt Barkley and Brian Hoyer under center) during his 2016 breakout season.
If I'm still waiting on quarterback, this is the time to take the plunge on Matt Ryan or Patrick Mahomes.
Round 12: Alex Smith
Smith may not seem like a potential league winner, but he's the reigning No. 4 scoring fantasy quarterback and can be had in the 12th round. Smith may not be as valuable in all scoring formats, but in the ESPN default settings he benefits from four points for a passing touchdown and a deduction of two points for an interception. Smith managed an outstanding 112 touchdowns and 33 interceptions during his five seasons in Kansas City. He also ranked top eight at the position in rushing yards during four of those five seasons. There's risk here as Smith changes teams, but his play style makes him a high-floor gem.
If I'm already set at quarterback, I'll take my chances on David Njoku. Yes, Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry will handle a hefty target share, but Njoku is an incredible athlete with elite upside.
<strike></strike>Round 13: Paul Richardson
I know, I know. For the third round in a row I'm talking about the Redskins (I swear I'm not fishing for Matthew Berry brownie points). Though picking all of the guys I've mentioned isn't a sound strategy except in large tournament settings (notable for those of you who enjoy DFS considering Washington is at Arizona in Week 1), it's clear that I feel the Redskins' offense is being undervalued. If the aforementioned Doctson fails to take a step forward in 2018, Richardson, who signed a five-year, $40 million contract during the offseason, will likely settle in as the team's top perimeter receiver. Richardson posted a career-best line of 44 catches on 80 targets for 703 yards and six touchdowns and was fantasy's No. 39 wide receiver last season.
Rounds 14-16: High-ceiling handcuffs and breakout candidates
We're assuming a 16-round draft here, so this is the point where league rules come into play. If we're drafting here at ESPN, we'll be forced to select both a defense and a kicker (I'll cover my favorite targets at those spots later).
However, if there's flexibility, this is a spot where we can gain a leg up on the competition. Most of our leaguemates are going to select at least one kicker and defense and let them rot on their roster until Week 1.
Why? I have no idea. Don't do that.
In lieu of those positions, I will gather up handcuffs at other positions (especially running back) and wait for injuries to strike during the preseason. If I have the Ravens' defense rostered and Dalvin Cook re-tears his ACL, I have the Ravens' defense. If I have Latavius Murray rostered and Cook re-tears his ACL, I have a quality RB2. Oh, and I can always drop two players and pick up a defense with a good matchup and a decent kicker just prior to Week 1. (By the way, if your league is hosted here at ESPN [why wouldn't it be?], one way around the draft room restrictions is to cut your kicker and defense after the draft in favor of adding high-upside stashes.)
Now that the disclaimer is out of the way, here are the players I will be considering with my final few picks:
We're in the late rounds, so it's time to start throwing darts at potential league-winning players.
I think it's safe to say Doctson underwhelmed during his de facto first NFL season, but I'm not throwing in the towel on the 2016 first-round pick just yet. Doctson wasn't promoted into full-time duties until Week 7 but still finished seventh in the NFL with 17 end zone targets. He's a super-athletic 6-foot-2 perimeter threat who is ticketed for No. 1 duties and plenty of goal-line work.
Meredith is certainly a wild card after last offseason's devastating knee injury, but it's hard not to be excited about a potential Drew Brees-to-Meredith connection. Meredith has caught a ridiculous 70 percent of his career targets, and his reliable hands figure to make him a favorite target of Brees in the short-to-intermediate area. There's WR2 upside here for a player who posted a line of 66 catches for 888 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games (primarily with Matt Barkley and Brian Hoyer under center) during his 2016 breakout season.
If I'm still waiting on quarterback, this is the time to take the plunge on Matt Ryan or Patrick Mahomes.
Round 12: Alex Smith
Smith may not seem like a potential league winner, but he's the reigning No. 4 scoring fantasy quarterback and can be had in the 12th round. Smith may not be as valuable in all scoring formats, but in the ESPN default settings he benefits from four points for a passing touchdown and a deduction of two points for an interception. Smith managed an outstanding 112 touchdowns and 33 interceptions during his five seasons in Kansas City. He also ranked top eight at the position in rushing yards during four of those five seasons. There's risk here as Smith changes teams, but his play style makes him a high-floor gem.
If I'm already set at quarterback, I'll take my chances on David Njoku. Yes, Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry will handle a hefty target share, but Njoku is an incredible athlete with elite upside.
<strike></strike>Round 13: Paul Richardson
I know, I know. For the third round in a row I'm talking about the Redskins (I swear I'm not fishing for Matthew Berry brownie points). Though picking all of the guys I've mentioned isn't a sound strategy except in large tournament settings (notable for those of you who enjoy DFS considering Washington is at Arizona in Week 1), it's clear that I feel the Redskins' offense is being undervalued. If the aforementioned Doctson fails to take a step forward in 2018, Richardson, who signed a five-year, $40 million contract during the offseason, will likely settle in as the team's top perimeter receiver. Richardson posted a career-best line of 44 catches on 80 targets for 703 yards and six touchdowns and was fantasy's No. 39 wide receiver last season.
Rounds 14-16: High-ceiling handcuffs and breakout candidates
We're assuming a 16-round draft here, so this is the point where league rules come into play. If we're drafting here at ESPN, we'll be forced to select both a defense and a kicker (I'll cover my favorite targets at those spots later).
However, if there's flexibility, this is a spot where we can gain a leg up on the competition. Most of our leaguemates are going to select at least one kicker and defense and let them rot on their roster until Week 1.
Why? I have no idea. Don't do that.
In lieu of those positions, I will gather up handcuffs at other positions (especially running back) and wait for injuries to strike during the preseason. If I have the Ravens' defense rostered and Dalvin Cook re-tears his ACL, I have the Ravens' defense. If I have Latavius Murray rostered and Cook re-tears his ACL, I have a quality RB2. Oh, and I can always drop two players and pick up a defense with a good matchup and a decent kicker just prior to Week 1. (By the way, if your league is hosted here at ESPN [why wouldn't it be?], one way around the draft room restrictions is to cut your kicker and defense after the draft in favor of adding high-upside stashes.)
Now that the disclaimer is out of the way, here are the players I will be considering with my final few picks:
- QB: Tyrod Taylor
- RB: Jordan Wilkins, Jeremy Hill
- WR: Michael Gallup, Chris Godwin, Danny Amendola, John Ross, James Washington, Courtland Sutton
- TE: Charles Clay, Antonio Gates
For the same reasons I talked up Smith earlier, Taylor will be on the QB1 radar as long as he's the Browns' starter. Expect him to be in the top-10 discussion when Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh in Week 1.
Wilkins has three-down ability and is a candidate for lead back duties in the Colts' shaky backfield. Hill is a terrific late-round flier with Sony Michel batting a knee injury. If Hill earns a big role on early downs and at the goal line in New England's high-scoring offense, his value will balloon in a hurry.
Early reports on Gallup are excellent, and it wouldn't be a surprise if the third-round rookie led Dallas in receiving. Godwin, a third-round sophomore, appears to have stolen a starting gig from DeSean Jackson in Tampa Bay. Amendola has nailed down slot duties in Miami, which is a position that allowed Jarvis Landry massive production in Adam Gase's offense. The all-time 40-yard-dash champion, Ross is a no-brainer post-hype target, especially after Brandon LaFell was cut. Rookies Washington, Sutton and Cain have impressed during training camp and will make noise this season if their strong play continues and translates to the regular season.
Clay figures to, once again, handle a hefty target share in a Buffalo offense devoid of weapons. Gates will be in the TE1 discussion if he re-signs with the Chargers.
Worthwhile RB handcuffs
The likes of Latavius Murray (Dalvin Cook), Doug Martin (Marshawn Lynch), Matt Breida (Jerick McKinnon), Corey Clement (Jay Ajayi), Chris Ivory (LeSean McCoy), Chase Edmonds (David Johnson), James Conner (Le'Veon Bell), John Kelly (Todd Gurley) and Spencer Ware (Kareem Hunt) are currently available extremely late or going undrafted in most leagues and are one injury away from a potential feature back job. That's the kind of player I like to consider for the end of my bench.
Defense/special teams
The best call in the 2017 version of this column may have been my instructions to select the usually undrafted Jaguars' team defense. This year, I'd say to pick pretty much any defense other than the Jaguars simply because they're likely to be drafted way too early. Listen, if I'm able to scoop up Jacksonville or one of the league's elite defenses with one of my final three picks, I'm happy to do so. Otherwise, I'll be looking for sneakier bets like the Patriots, Saints and Titans.
<strike></strike>Since I like to stream defenses, I'll also be looking at the Ravens (vs. Bills) and Lions (vs. Jets) since both have a relatively light Week 1 opponent.
Kicker
This is as simple as picking the top guy left on the board. Justin Tucker was a popular "reach" in 2017 drafts and predictably came back to earth, finishing fourth in fantasy points. On the other hand, Greg Zuerlein wasn't even close to the fantasy radar, but Sean McVay's magic vaulted him to the most fantasy points at the position. Zuerlein, Stephen Gostkowski, Tucker, Matt Bryant and Wil Lutz are the best five options, but don't reach on any of them.
So there you have it: my game plan for a 2018 fantasy football championship. Remember, this piece should not serve as your only draft board. It's simply the players I've found myself targeting and, with ADP in mind, whom I would love to have on my squad this year.
Wilkins has three-down ability and is a candidate for lead back duties in the Colts' shaky backfield. Hill is a terrific late-round flier with Sony Michel batting a knee injury. If Hill earns a big role on early downs and at the goal line in New England's high-scoring offense, his value will balloon in a hurry.
Early reports on Gallup are excellent, and it wouldn't be a surprise if the third-round rookie led Dallas in receiving. Godwin, a third-round sophomore, appears to have stolen a starting gig from DeSean Jackson in Tampa Bay. Amendola has nailed down slot duties in Miami, which is a position that allowed Jarvis Landry massive production in Adam Gase's offense. The all-time 40-yard-dash champion, Ross is a no-brainer post-hype target, especially after Brandon LaFell was cut. Rookies Washington, Sutton and Cain have impressed during training camp and will make noise this season if their strong play continues and translates to the regular season.
Clay figures to, once again, handle a hefty target share in a Buffalo offense devoid of weapons. Gates will be in the TE1 discussion if he re-signs with the Chargers.
Worthwhile RB handcuffs
The likes of Latavius Murray (Dalvin Cook), Doug Martin (Marshawn Lynch), Matt Breida (Jerick McKinnon), Corey Clement (Jay Ajayi), Chris Ivory (LeSean McCoy), Chase Edmonds (David Johnson), James Conner (Le'Veon Bell), John Kelly (Todd Gurley) and Spencer Ware (Kareem Hunt) are currently available extremely late or going undrafted in most leagues and are one injury away from a potential feature back job. That's the kind of player I like to consider for the end of my bench.
Defense/special teams
The best call in the 2017 version of this column may have been my instructions to select the usually undrafted Jaguars' team defense. This year, I'd say to pick pretty much any defense other than the Jaguars simply because they're likely to be drafted way too early. Listen, if I'm able to scoop up Jacksonville or one of the league's elite defenses with one of my final three picks, I'm happy to do so. Otherwise, I'll be looking for sneakier bets like the Patriots, Saints and Titans.
<strike></strike>Since I like to stream defenses, I'll also be looking at the Ravens (vs. Bills) and Lions (vs. Jets) since both have a relatively light Week 1 opponent.
Kicker
This is as simple as picking the top guy left on the board. Justin Tucker was a popular "reach" in 2017 drafts and predictably came back to earth, finishing fourth in fantasy points. On the other hand, Greg Zuerlein wasn't even close to the fantasy radar, but Sean McVay's magic vaulted him to the most fantasy points at the position. Zuerlein, Stephen Gostkowski, Tucker, Matt Bryant and Wil Lutz are the best five options, but don't reach on any of them.
So there you have it: my game plan for a 2018 fantasy football championship. Remember, this piece should not serve as your only draft board. It's simply the players I've found myself targeting and, with ADP in mind, whom I would love to have on my squad this year.
