2018 versions of 2017's breakout fantasy football stars
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER
It's the question I get asked most often during the offseason:
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"Who is this year's ... ?<enter style="box-sizing: border-box;" breakout="" from="" last="" player="" season="">"
</enter>These aren't simple questions to answer because no two scenarios are exactly alike. But there are obviously comparable players in similar situations. And, if the people want comparisons, comparisons they shall have.
The process here was simple: I jotted down each of 2017's top breakout players and came up with a short list of players who fit a similar pedigree as they enter 2018. Below is analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the other players who landed on the short list.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Note that this is not my way of saying that these players will definitely break out this season. Again, it's simply the players who are in a similar situation to those players who exploded onto the fantasy scene last season.
[h=3]This season's Carson Wentz: Deshaun Watson[/h]</enter>These aren't simple questions to answer because no two scenarios are exactly alike. But there are obviously comparable players in similar situations. And, if the people want comparisons, comparisons they shall have.
The process here was simple: I jotted down each of 2017's top breakout players and came up with a short list of players who fit a similar pedigree as they enter 2018. Below is analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the other players who landed on the short list.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Note that this is not my way of saying that these players will definitely break out this season. Again, it's simply the players who are in a similar situation to those players who exploded onto the fantasy scene last season.
Wentz was a second-year quarterback who made the leap from a promising rookie campaign to fantasy stardom.
A "promising rookie campaign" would be an understatement for Watson, who enjoyed a bit of a mini-breakout in the form of four straight weeks as a top-two fantasy quarterback. In fact, during Watson's six starts, he scored 30 more fantasy points and six more touchdowns than any other passer. Though the plusses outnumbered the minuses, Watson struggled with interceptions (eight) and accuracy (league-high 24 percent off-target rate), while benefiting from a position-low 1.0 percent drop rate.
Like Wentz, Watson will need to play better in his second season, but he sports elite statistical upside.
Other candidates: Patrick Mahomes
[h=3]This season's Jared Goff: Mitchell Trubisky[/h]A "promising rookie campaign" would be an understatement for Watson, who enjoyed a bit of a mini-breakout in the form of four straight weeks as a top-two fantasy quarterback. In fact, during Watson's six starts, he scored 30 more fantasy points and six more touchdowns than any other passer. Though the plusses outnumbered the minuses, Watson struggled with interceptions (eight) and accuracy (league-high 24 percent off-target rate), while benefiting from a position-low 1.0 percent drop rate.
Like Wentz, Watson will need to play better in his second season, but he sports elite statistical upside.
Other candidates: Patrick Mahomes
Goff was a second-year quarterback who made a huge leap from an underwhelming rookie season, thanks in large part to a significant coaching change.
Trubisky completed 59 percent of his throws while tossing seven touchdowns and seven interceptions in 12 games of work as a rookie. He managed only two top-10 fantasy weeks in John Fox and Dowell Loggains' run-first, conservative offense.
Enter new head coach Matt Nagy, who comes from the pass-heavy Andy Reid coaching tree. Like Goff, Trubisky will also have the benefit of a rebuilt receiving corps that includes Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller and Trey Burton.
Trubisky can be selected in the final round or two of drafts and is a logical second-year breakout target.
[h=3]This season's Kareem Hunt: Rashaad Penny[/h]Trubisky completed 59 percent of his throws while tossing seven touchdowns and seven interceptions in 12 games of work as a rookie. He managed only two top-10 fantasy weeks in John Fox and Dowell Loggains' run-first, conservative offense.
Enter new head coach Matt Nagy, who comes from the pass-heavy Andy Reid coaching tree. Like Goff, Trubisky will also have the benefit of a rebuilt receiving corps that includes Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller and Trey Burton.
Trubisky can be selected in the final round or two of drafts and is a logical second-year breakout target.
Hunt's path to a rookie-season workhorse role was initially blocked, but he was able to take control in a hurry before finishing fourth at the position in fantasy points. Granted, Hunt benefited from an injury to Spencer Ware, but his elite efficiency likely would've earned him a promotion regardless. Similarly, if Penny lives up to his first-round pedigree, Chris Carson won't hold him back for long.
The similarities between Hunt and Penny are rampant. Hunt led the NFL in rushing last season, Penny led the FBS. Hunt is 5-foot-10, 216 pounds, Penny is 5-foot-11, 220 pounds. Per Pro Football Focus, both led their respective rookie classes in forced missed tackles during their final FBS season.
Seattle's shaky offensive line is a concern, but Penny's size and skill set provide him with a gigantic ceiling.
Other candidates: Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones
[h=3]This season's Chris Carson: Jordan Wilkins[/h]The similarities between Hunt and Penny are rampant. Hunt led the NFL in rushing last season, Penny led the FBS. Hunt is 5-foot-10, 216 pounds, Penny is 5-foot-11, 220 pounds. Per Pro Football Focus, both led their respective rookie classes in forced missed tackles during their final FBS season.
Seattle's shaky offensive line is a concern, but Penny's size and skill set provide him with a gigantic ceiling.
Other candidates: Royce Freeman, Ronald Jones
Speaking of Carson, the Oklahoma State product was a late-round draft pick who quickly proved to be his team's best running back and skyrocketed to the top of the depth chart.
Similarly, Wilkins -- who I felt in March could be this year's Carson -- landed in a messy running back situation in Indianapolis. Marlon Mack was good after contact last season but is unproven as a lead back. Nyheim Hines (another 2018 draft pick) is undersized and best used as a change-of-pace back. Wilkins, meanwhile, is 6-foot-1, 216 pounds with three-down ability and one of the best forced missed tackle rates in this year's class (despite a shaky yards-after-contact average).
With Andrew Luck back, the Colts' offense figures to find paydirt plenty, which makes the team's lead back even more intriguing. Take a flier on Wilkins late in your draft and hope he seizes the job.
Other candidates: Josh Adams, Mark Walton
[h=3]This season's Alvin Kamara: None[/h]Similarly, Wilkins -- who I felt in March could be this year's Carson -- landed in a messy running back situation in Indianapolis. Marlon Mack was good after contact last season but is unproven as a lead back. Nyheim Hines (another 2018 draft pick) is undersized and best used as a change-of-pace back. Wilkins, meanwhile, is 6-foot-1, 216 pounds with three-down ability and one of the best forced missed tackle rates in this year's class (despite a shaky yards-after-contact average).
With Andrew Luck back, the Colts' offense figures to find paydirt plenty, which makes the team's lead back even more intriguing. Take a flier on Wilkins late in your draft and hope he seizes the job.
Other candidates: Josh Adams, Mark Walton
Everyone wants to know: "Who this year's Alvin Kamara?" I can't bring myself to pick someone because what Kamara did last year is so far beyond sustainable that there's no reasonable candidate.
Consider where Kamara's 2018 season stacks up at the position:
Consider where Kamara's 2018 season stacks up at the position:
- 6.1 yards per carry? Only Jamaal Charles (2010) has beat that mark since 2009 (min. 100 carries)
- 3.7 yards before contact? Tops at the position and 10th-highest in a single season since 2009
- 8.4 yards per target? Fifth-best at the position (min. 30 targets)
- 7.4 touchdowns above expected (OTD)? Fifth-largest gap of the past decade
Yeah, it would be reckless of me to project anyone to post a similar season in 2018.It would've been easy to go with Saquon Barkley here, and though his efficiency likely will be very good, he's a strong bet for high-end
production thanks to big volume -- something Kamara didn't get last season.
By the way, this goes for the "this year's Saints backfield" comparisons, as well. The odds of a team managing two top-six fantasy running backs (or even two top-12 fantasy RBs) are extremely low.
Other candidates: Stop it
[h=3]This season's JuJu Smith-Schuster: Calvin Ridley[/h]production thanks to big volume -- something Kamara didn't get last season.
By the way, this goes for the "this year's Saints backfield" comparisons, as well. The odds of a team managing two top-six fantasy running backs (or even two top-12 fantasy RBs) are extremely low.
Other candidates: Stop it
Smith-Schuster was a rookie wide receiver who started slow but quickly showed signs of stardom while forcing his way into fantasy starting lineups down the stretch.
Whereas Smith-Schuster started behind Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, Ridley figures to open his career behind Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu. If Ridley lives up to his first-round pedigree, it shouldn't take him long to overtake Sanu (not unlike how Smith-Schuster passed Bryant on the depth chart by Week 3). Ridley is on the small side but has terrific speed and is a good bet for several explosive plays this season, especially with defenses keeping a close eye on Jones. Ridley is also one injury away from an every-down gig in an offense led by one of the game's top passers in Matt Ryan.
Consider scooping up the rookie in the double-digit rounds of your draft.
Other candidates: Courtland Sutton, Anthony Miller, Christian Kirk, James Washington
[h=3]This season's Cooper Kupp: Michael Gallup[/h]Whereas Smith-Schuster started behind Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, Ridley figures to open his career behind Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu. If Ridley lives up to his first-round pedigree, it shouldn't take him long to overtake Sanu (not unlike how Smith-Schuster passed Bryant on the depth chart by Week 3). Ridley is on the small side but has terrific speed and is a good bet for several explosive plays this season, especially with defenses keeping a close eye on Jones. Ridley is also one injury away from an every-down gig in an offense led by one of the game's top passers in Matt Ryan.
Consider scooping up the rookie in the double-digit rounds of your draft.
Other candidates: Courtland Sutton, Anthony Miller, Christian Kirk, James Washington
Kupp was an early-round rookie available late in fantasy drafts who paced his team in targets as a rookie.
Since Dez Bryant and Jason Witten joined up 2010, the duo has been responsible for 42.7 percent of the Cowboys' receiving yardage. Someone needs to pick up the slack in 2018, and Gallup -- a third-round pick out of Colorado State who was Pro Football Focus' highest-graded 2017 FBS receiver -- is a strong candidate. Gallup's primary competition at wide receiver will be Allen Hurns, Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley, and it's hard to imagine a generous target share for the Witten-less tight end group.
Gallup figures to prove a steal in fantasy drafts if he nails down an every-down gig.
Other candidates: DJ Moore
[h=3]This season's Nelson Agholor: Josh Doctson[/h]Since Dez Bryant and Jason Witten joined up 2010, the duo has been responsible for 42.7 percent of the Cowboys' receiving yardage. Someone needs to pick up the slack in 2018, and Gallup -- a third-round pick out of Colorado State who was Pro Football Focus' highest-graded 2017 FBS receiver -- is a strong candidate. Gallup's primary competition at wide receiver will be Allen Hurns, Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley, and it's hard to imagine a generous target share for the Witten-less tight end group.
Gallup figures to prove a steal in fantasy drafts if he nails down an every-down gig.
Other candidates: DJ Moore
Agholor was a former first-round draft pick at wide receiver who underwhelmed out of the gate before exploding into fantasy relevance in his third season.
Doctson missed all but a few snaps during his rookie season, but got a long look (729 snaps) in 2017. The results weren't particularly good. Doctson caught only 35 (or 46 percent) of his 76 targets for 502 yards. He scored six touchdowns, but that was primarily thanks to 17 end zone targets (sixth-highest at the position) and short of his 6.9 OTD.
Agholor was similarly ineffective during his first two seasons, and Doctson will look to follow in his path as Washington's projected No. 1 receiver.
Other candidates: Tyler Boyd, Corey Coleman
[h=3]This season's Evan Engram: Mike Gesicki[/h]Doctson missed all but a few snaps during his rookie season, but got a long look (729 snaps) in 2017. The results weren't particularly good. Doctson caught only 35 (or 46 percent) of his 76 targets for 502 yards. He scored six touchdowns, but that was primarily thanks to 17 end zone targets (sixth-highest at the position) and short of his 6.9 OTD.
Agholor was similarly ineffective during his first two seasons, and Doctson will look to follow in his path as Washington's projected No. 1 receiver.
Other candidates: Tyler Boyd, Corey Coleman
Engram turned his "de facto wide receiver" skill set into a strong, but rare, fantasy-relevant season by a rookie tight end.
Training camp reports on Gesicki indicate that he's struggling as a blocker but terrific as a receiver. That matches up with his scouting report after the second-round pick caught 105 of 148 targets for 1,242 yards and 14 touchdowns while at Penn State during the past two seasons. Gesicki absolutely tore up the 2018 combine, ranking atop the position in arm length, 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, three-cone, short shuttle and 60-yard shuttle.
If Miami doesn't punish Gesicki for his blocking and lets him run routes, he will certainly have TE2 appeal with some upside.
Other candidates: Mark Andrews
Training camp reports on Gesicki indicate that he's struggling as a blocker but terrific as a receiver. That matches up with his scouting report after the second-round pick caught 105 of 148 targets for 1,242 yards and 14 touchdowns while at Penn State during the past two seasons. Gesicki absolutely tore up the 2018 combine, ranking atop the position in arm length, 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, three-cone, short shuttle and 60-yard shuttle.
If Miami doesn't punish Gesicki for his blocking and lets him run routes, he will certainly have TE2 appeal with some upside.
Other candidates: Mark Andrews
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