Using Phil Steele Trend / Team Win Totals / Turnover Margin ...Improve or Decline

Kaboom said:

Phil Steele put out a Win Total and Turnover Margin Trend out there .... I just fine tuned it a bit ....

Positive feedback only guys .... just trying to help us out here ....


From 2011 through 2017 ...last 7 Years ...Win Total / Minus 10 or More Turnovers


1 Win Teams with - 10 Turnover Margin or More the last 7 Years


1/10 Teams declined ... went from 1 Win Total to Zero ....with Minus 10 Turnovers ... Team Georgia St


9/10 Teams obviously improved ...with 7 out of the 9 improving win total teams increased their Win Total by 2 .....and 6 out of 9 improving win total teams increased their Win Total by 3 or more !!!


This year's teams coming off a 1 Win Season that had 10 or more Turnovers ....Let's look at the teams Strength of Schedule compared to last year as well ... SOS = Strength of Schedule


Oregon St ... 2017 / # 66 SOS ... 2018.... SOS # 111 ... I feel the weaker schedule should lead to 2 more wins here

8/15/18 4:54pm

$10.00

$13.50

Pending

11/23/18 4:00pm College Props Football 30831 Oregon State total wins over 2½ +135*vs Oregon State total wins under 2½

Baylor .....2017 / # 50 SOS .....2018 ....SOS # 83 .... Again ...the weaker schedule should help ....


Over 5 1/2 or 6 Win Total depending on your site is a bit high for my blood .... But I still lean Over 5 1/2 Win Total from Baylor here ..-180




Kansas .... 2017 / # 77 SOS .....2018 ...SOS # 119 .... The Weaker Schedule will help !!!


Over 3 Win Total again ...but high for my liking ....




Rice .....2017 / # 112 .....2018 .... SOS # 125 ..... Just a small hunch play ...

8/15/18 5:10pm	$5.00	$5.00	Pending	11/24/18 1:00pm College Props Football 30871 Rice total wins over 3½ +100*vs Rice total wins under 3½

2 Win Teams that had Minus - 10 Turnover Margin or More ...last 7 years......we will take a look at the SOS here too ...


77% or 10/13 Improved their Win Total with 9 out of those 10 winners improving by 2 or more wins ....


Teams this year that are coming off 2 Wins and Minus - 10 Turnover Margin


2 Wins last year San Jose St - 26 Turnover Margin last year .... 2017 SOS # 111 ....2018 SOS # 128 ... bit weaker schedule this year ....

8/15/18 10:27pm

$10.00

$8.33

Pending

11/24/18 12:00pm College Props Football 30901 San Jose State total wins over 2½ -120*vs San Jose State total wins under 2¼

2 wins last year Texas St Minus - 15 Turnover Margin ....2017 / SOS # 129 .... 2018 / SOS # 128

8/15/18 10:32pm

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$4.76

Pending

11/24/18 12:00pm College Props Football 31031 Texas State total wins over 3½ -105*vs Texas State total wins under 3½

3 Win Teams ...with a Minus -10 or more Turnover Margin.....last 7 years .... 12/17 or 71 % improve their Win Total , with 10 out of the 12 increasing their Win Totals by 3 or more games or 83 %.....


2018 Teams coming off a 3 Win Total Year with Minus -10 or more Turnover Margin ...with a check on SOS


East Carolina 3 Wins / -10 Turnover Margin in 2017 ...with SOS Rank # 96 ... now in 2018-19 SOS # 121 ... which is a weaker schedule ...

8/16/18 6:05am

$7.00

$8.75

Pending

11/23/18 12:00pm College Props Football 30281 East Carolina total wins over 3½ +125*vs East Carolina total wins under 3½

New Mexico 3 Wins / Minus - 16 Turnover Margin in 2017 ..with SOS Rank # 92 .... 2018-19 SOS # 110 ...

8/16/18 6:11am

$5.00

$4.35

Pending

11/24/18 12:00pm College Props Football 30701 New Mexico total wins over 4 -115* vs New Mexico total wins under 4

Any team that had 4 or more Wins last year with a Minus - 10 Turnover Margin or More ..... the Percentage of those Teams improving their Win Total was .....12 / 30 or only 40 % ... with 18 / 30 declining in Win total or 60 %


Here are the teams with Over 4 Wins last year and a Minus - 10 Turnover Margin in 2017 .... we will compare SOS


Syracuse 4 Wins / - 12 TO Mar... with SOS # 39 in 2017 ...impressive .... 2018 -19 SOS # 66 ... bit weaker schedule TY


Byu 4 Wins / - 10 TO Margin ... with SOS # 81 in 2017 .... 2018-19 SOS # 96


AF 5 Wins / - 10 TO Margin.... with SOS # 72 in 2017 .... 2018-19 SOS # 86


Mid Tn St 7 Wins / - 12 TO Margin....with SOS # 107 in 2017 .... 2018-19 SOS # 95


N Texas 9 Wins / - 11 TO Mar .... with SOS # 98 in 2017 .... 2018-19 SOS # 97




Next up Teams that had Plus + 10 or More Turnover Margin and their Win Totals / SOS

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Heatwave said:

I do like the overall approach here. Although overall SOS is a good high level measure of things, I think getting down to the specific matchups and home/away scenarios is the way to go. Also, not sure where the SOS for 2018 comes from, but I would also be careful there as well. IF it is just simply a record of this year's scheduled teams combined, it may not work as well. Phil Steele has 2018 projected SOS in his magazine, and Oregon State comes out as the #4 most difficult schedule. Not sure I agree with that either, but looking at the individual games based on my power ratings:

Oregon State:

FOR SURE WINS:

Southern Utah

FOR SURE LOSSES:

Ohio State
Nevada
Arizona
USC
Stanford
Washington
Oregon

TOSSUPS:

Arizona State - I lean to a loss here as it is on road
Washington State - lean to win here at home
California - lean win here
Colorado - lean loss here


I think on the high end they win 5 if they win all tossup games, and they only win 1 if they lose all tossup games. 3 games seems about right, and being that you are in at Over 2.5 plus big juice, I think it may win. But for me, not enough true value here.

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The Pooh said:

If you really think that Oregon State has a good chance of defeating Cal, I would immediately review my records and formulas because that is simply not going to happen.

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