Pac 12 Preview

Knightrofins · Aug 17, 2018

[h=1]Oregon 2018 Betting Preview: Ducks Have Too Much To Overcome[/h]Collin WilsonAug 14, 2018 / 9:07 AM EDT

[h=2]Oregon 2018 Betting Odds[/h]

To win the National Title: +11000
To make Playoff: +1400
To make NY6 Bowl: +375
To win the Pac-12: +925
To win the Pac-12 North: +500
Win Total: 8.5 (over -140, under +120)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 14. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Oregon 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 8.6

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Oregon Under 8.5 (+120)
Oregon’s 2017 campaign was really a tale of two seasons. The team looked great with quarterback Justin Herbert under center, going 6-2 (including a loss to Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl after coach Willie Taggart left for Florida State). When Herbert was out injured with a broken collarbone, the Ducks went 1-4.
Herbert backed up the winning record with great numbers, throwing 15 touchdowns against five picks and amassing almost 2,000 yards. He averaged 9.6 yards per attempt, which would have been fourth in the nation if he qualified.
Coach Mario Cristobal, who served as the Ducks’ offensive coordinator in 2017, also beefed up the offensive line to protect Herbert for 2018. If you’re betting Oregon futures, you’re basically wagering on the health of Herbert.

Pac-12 Network
✔@Pac12Network

Justin Herbert has a SCARY set of tools for a true frosh. Stay woke on @WinTheDay's QB.

He's our @USAFootball Fundamental Play of the Week!
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Under Cristobal, I expect to see more of a power-run spread offense with a mix of pistol. Cristobal has adopted Taggart’s offensive scheme, and with Jim Mastro taking over as running backs coach, the Ducks will also have a little Nevada Wolf Pack to their game, too. However, the biggest win for the Ducks this offseason was throwing money at defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt.
Oregon made strides in efficiency under Leavitt, finishing 26th. The Ducks also finished 19th overall in havoc last year, and I expect them to improve at preventing explosiveness this season.

One game that Oregon will have circled will be Washington’s visit Oct. 13. Chris Petersen has dominated the Ducks over the past two seasons, but his team will be on back-to-back road games, while the Ducks are coming off a bye.
Still, I like the Ducks to go Under 8.5 wins (+110) because of a few other brutal scheduling spots. Oregon travels to Arizona, Utah, California and Washington State — with the latter two coming off bye weeks. The Ducks only play two games at home in their final six weeks, and any injury to Herbert would derail their offense.
[h=2]What else you need to know about Oregon[/h]Since 2007, the under is 12-4 when Oregon is a road underdog. This should apply at Arizona and Utah.
[h=1]Arizona 2018 Betting Preview: QB Khalil Tate Will Take Over College Football[/h][h=2]Collin WilsonAug 14, 2018 / 11:05 AM EDT

[/h][h=2]Arizona 2018 Betting Odds[/h][h=2]

To win the National Title: +22500
To make Playoff: +4500
To make NY6 Bowl: +1000
To win the Pac-12: +2300
To win the Pac-12 South: +405
Win Total: 8 (over -110, under -120)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 14. Always shop for the best line.

[/h][h=2]Arizona 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h][h=2]The Action Network Projected Wins: 9.8

[/h][h=2]Bet To Watch[/h][h=2]Arizona to win the Pac-12 South (+405)
This preview should write itself, as video of the most electrifying man in college football should be enough to make anyone buy into Wildcats football this fall. If you own an updated version of the Merriam-Webster dictionary, you should find a picture of Khalil Tate under “explosiveness.”

Arizona Football
✔@ArizonaFBall

#TBT to Khalil Tate's 71-yard

call vs. UCLA.

#BearDown | #HardEdge
12:56 PM - Dec 7, 2017

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But wait, there’s more! If Tate’s legs aren’t enough to sell you on Arizona, have a look at what the junior quarterback can do through the air. Although the Wildcats came up short in the Foster Farms Bowl, he put on a show.

AZ Wildcat Country@Wildcat_Country

Khalil Tate new career high 3rd TD pass for the game.
Tate 13/17 205 yds pass
12:03 AM - Dec 28, 2017

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If you’re adding Arizona to your betting portfolio, it’s not all about Khalil Tate. The hire of coach Kevin Sumlin will help the offense and the defense. And the defense ranks 23rd in returning production.
There are questions about the size of the defense, but it got dealt a break by avoiding the two best offensive lines in the conference (Stanford and Washington).
Sumlin walks into a great coaching situation, with a lot of offensive talent, an experienced defense and an easy conference schedule. The 54-year-old has a knack for putting together top-notch offenses, so I expect a bounce-back season after an up-and-down 2017 when he fell short of expectations at Texas A&M.

Some of us (not naming names) may have gotten carried away and placed a 500-1 national title future on Arizona in February, but a more realistic bet would be taking Arizona to win the Pac-12 South Division (+405).
Expect Sumlin to be invigorated with his Heisman candidate. And if you still aren’t sold, keep Tate’s highlights on a loop.

[/h][h=2]What else you need to know about Arizona[/h][h=2]Arizona is 1-6 against the spread in bowl games since 2009, while Sumlin covered a bowl game at Houston just once. Look to fade the Wildcats in the postseason.

[/h][h=2][/h][h=1]Utah 2018 Betting Preview: Experience, Talent Should Put Utes Over Win Total[/h][h=2]
Collin WilsonAug 14, 2018 / 1:31 PM EDT

[/h][h=2]Utah 2018 Betting Odds[/h][h=2]

To win the National Title: +31500
To make Playoff: +4000
To make NY6 Bowl: +700
To win the Pac-12: +2000
To win the Pac-12 South: +430
Win Total: 7 (over -130, under +110)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 14. Always shop for the best line.

[/h][h=2]Utah 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h][h=2]The Action Network Projected Wins: 7.7

[/h][h=2]Bet To Watch[/h][h=2]Utah Over 7 (-130)
Utah should be a serious contender in the Pac-12 in 2019, but 2018 figures to be a roller coaster. The team is loaded with talent, but this schedule couldn’t get any tougher.
The hiring of offensive coordinator Troy Taylor from Eastern Washington last season to run the spread already paid dividends at the end of 2017, but quarterback Tyler Huntley will need time to get used to this scheme. However, he will be surrounded by several experienced players, and the offensive line returns four starters.

Steve Bartle@SBartle247

Tyler Huntley, King of the Offense, The QB that was Promised, Breaker of Ankles...

1:28 PM - Sep 1, 2017

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The Utah defense continues to be a model of consistency under Morgan Scalley. The Utes ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in green zone defense.
The biggest issue with the Utes in 2018 is simply the schedule.
They have an odd scheduling spot early in the season when they travel to MAC power Northern Illinois before hosting Washington on Sept. 15. The cross-division schedule also throws a few hurdles at the Utes, as they draw Stanford and Oregon. The silver lining is that they host Pac-12 South rivals Arizona and USC, but the Wildcats have the easiest schedule of all the aforementioned teams.

While I love Utah in 2018, I can’t back it to win the South Division (+430) or Pac-12 (+2000). I will instead back Utah to win over 7 games -130 and set a calendar reminder in 2019 to lay serious money on the Utes.

[/h][h=2]What else you need to know about Utah[/h][h=2]Kyle Whittingham is one of the best coaches in the nation with extra time and in nonconference play. Utah is 15-4 against the spread in nonconference games since 2013, making any Utah -10 or better a play at Northern Illinois on Sept. 8.

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[FONT=&quot][h=1]California 2018 Betting Preview: Bears’ Weak Run Defense Will Be Tested Often[/h]Collin WilsonAug 14, 2018 / 3:09 PM EDT

[h=2]California 2018 Betting Odds[/h]

To win the National Title: +200000
To win the Pac-12: +6000
To win the Pac-12 North: +2700
Win Total: 6.5 (over -105, under -125)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 14. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]California 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 6.0

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]California Under 6.5 (-125)
There’s a lot to like about Cal despite a 5-7 record with no bowl in Justin Wilcox’s first year. The Bears rank 19th overall in returning production, including every offensive starter and the entire secondary. The defensive front seven will need to improve for Cal to become a real contender in the Pac-12 North, though.
The competition is neck and neck through fall camp between quarterbacks Brandon McIlwain and Ross Bowers. Either quarterback will have Vic Wharton and Kanawai Noa as targets, which will keep that passing downs success rate going (ranked 18th in 2017).

Barstool Berkeley@BarstoolBerk

Kanawai Noa is the man! What a catch
3:25 PM - Oct 28, 2017

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Cal closed 2017 losing four of its last five, with three of the losses coming by a field goal or less.
Any team that has an offensive line that can control the line of scrimmage and clock will give this Cal defense fits. There are plenty of talented rushing attacks on this Bears schedule, including BYU, Oregon, Washington, USC and Stanford.
That list does not include games with Arizona and Colorado, which both have quarterbacks who run frequently. The Bears will beat teams that are pass-first, but that is not enough for seven wins. I expect the Bears to finish with six wins, so I’ll give a win total play of Cal Under 6.5 (-125).
[h=2]What else you need to know about California[/h]Cal is 9-3 against the spread as a home team since 2016, and will immediately be challenged by North Carolina in Week 1 as an 8-point favorite. Make sure you get caught up on all the suspension information and how it relates to the Tar Heels vs. Cal opener.

MLB

Wake and Rake: Sharp Bettors All Over Mets-Phillies Matchup
[COLOR=#57A773 !important]PROPJ Walsh

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Knightrofins · Aug 17, 2018

[h=1]UCLA 2018 Betting Preview: Chip Kelly’s Turnaround Will Take Time[/h]Collin WilsonAug 15, 2018 / 9:28 AM EDT

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[FONT=&quot][h=2]UCLA 2018 Betting Odds[/h]

To win the National Title: +35000
To make Playoff: +4200
To make NY6 Bowl: +2650
To win the Pac-12: +3250
To win the Pac-12 South: +610
Win Total: 5.5 (over +105, under -125)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 14. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]UCLA 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 6.2

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]UCLA Under 5.5 (-125)
How fast are things moving in Westwood these days? Players have started warp-speed practice under new coach Chip Kelly, learning to treat every aspect of football with speed. Players must run to warmup positions, run plays in fewer than 15 seconds and kick 23 field goals in a five-minute period.
There will be an adjustment for the Bruins with scheme changes on both sides of the ball. A long list of players looks to take over at quarterback for Josh Rosen.
Devon Modster is the favorite to start and had a quality game against Kansas State in a Cactus Bowl loss, but will be pushed by Kelly’s sought-out dual-threat recruit, Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The offensive line returns just two players, and those with experience are expected to fill in at center.

@540Jason©@540Jason

Devon Modster @DModster to @theohoward2 Theo Howard for a 70 yard #TouchDown #UCLA #Bruins #CactusBowl #KansasStateVsUCLA
11:12 PM - Dec 26, 2017

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From New Hampshire to Oregon to the NFL, Jerry Azzinaro has been a defensive presence on Kelly’s staff. He takes over as defensive coordinator and will move the Bruins to a 3-4. There is talent left over from the Jim Mora era, as the Bruins rank 40th defensively in returning production.
But the schedule is one of the toughest in the country, including a Week 2 nonconference showcase against Oklahoma in Norman.

The Bruins’ cross-division schedule is brutal, including games against Pac-12 North members Washington, Oregon and Stanford. As a result, we go Under 5.5 -125 based on scheme changes and a brutal schedule.
UCLA will be a team to bet on in November once Kelly’s conditioning and positions are in place.
[h=2]What else you need to know about UCLA[/h]UCLA was 0-12 straight-up as an underdog since 2015 under Mora. Oklahoma, Washington and Arizona will serve as Kelly’s first attempts to buck the trend.

[h=1]Stanford 2018 Betting Preview: Don’t Expect Resurgence From Cardinal Defense[/h]Collin WilsonAug 15, 2018 / 11:29 AM EDT

[h=2]Stanford 2018 Betting Odds[/h]

To win the National Title: +7000
To make Playoff: +900
To make NY6 Bowl: +145
To win the Pac-12: +550
To win the Pac-12 North: +365
Win Total: 8.5 (over -115, under -105)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 14. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Stanford 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 6.9

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Stanford Under 8.5 (-105)
Each college football gambling season generally starts with a way to make money on Stanford. Whether it’s Pac-12 North futures, Pac-12 title futures or win totals, I find myself drawn to this team each preseason. When BetOnline released 9.5 as a win total in May, I scooped up as many shots as possible … on the under this time.
The Cardinal will be a force on offense, ranking 22nd in returning production behind Heisman favorite Bryce Love. The offensive line returns plenty in the two-deep depth chart. The health of quarterback K.J. Costello will be a factor, but when he his healthy, he can bounce-pass the ball off the carpet and still scoot for a touchdown.

Stanford Football
✔@StanfordFball

.@CoachDavidShaw has named @kj_costello our starting QB again this week. @CoachJerodHaase might give K.J. a look, too.

4:02 PM - Nov 7, 2017

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The defense has turnover at almost every position, and improvement is needed in every area. Stanford fell to 85th overall in havoc, specifically 110th on the defensive line. The secondary loses talent to the NFL, making 2018 a complete retool of the defense. Any team with an offensive pulse or plus-trench play will be able to keep Love and Costello off the field.
This schedule will make it tough for Stanford to win even eight games this season. Five of the first six games come against talented offenses in San Diego State, USC, Oregon, Notre Dame and Utah. Take Under 8.5 (-105) and fade the Tree.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Stanford[/h]Stanford is 13-3 against the spread as an underdog since 2011. The Cardinal’s first attempt will be against Oregon, which they have beaten by at least three touchdowns in the past two seasons.
Looking for a Week 1 play? San Diego State’s new featured back is Juwan Washington, who follows in the footsteps of Donnel Pumphrey and Rashaad Penny. The Aztecs’ style of ground-and-pound is going to be a real issue for Stanford’s defensive front in the season opener. Not only will the Aztecs dominate the line of scrimmage, long drives and limited possessions will put plenty of value on a big spread. Take San Diego State +14.5 or better in Week 1.

[h=1]USC 2018 Betting Preview: Clay Helton Will Be Exposed Without Sam Darnold[/h]Collin WilsonAug 15, 2018 / 3:26 PM EDT

[h=2]USC 2018 Betting Odds[/h]

To win the National Title: +6500
To make Playoff: +1000
To make NY6 Bowl: +200
To win the Pac-12: +485
To win the Pac-12 South: +153
Win Total: 8.5 (over -115, under -105)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 14. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]USC 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 7.2

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]USC Under 8.5 wins (-105)
The Sam Darnold safety blanket is gone for coach Clay Helton, who enjoyed a stellar 2016 (post-Alabama blowout) and a run to a Pac-12 title in 2017. USC ranks 115th overall in returning production, with most of those losses coming on offense.
Blue-chip true freshman JT Daniels leads quarterbacks through fall camp, but it remains to be seen if Helton will hold the 18-year-old back through the early portion of the Trojans’ schedule.
The great news for the stable of quarterbacks and returning skill-position players is the offensive line. Four starters return, but they must get better at protecting the quarterback. USC’s offensive line dropped from fifth to 31st in adjusted sack rateduring 2017, forcing Darnold to make some bad decisions.

USC returns plenty of havoc in the defensive front seven. This group ranked eighth in adjusted sack rate, and should be the anchor of stability for the Trojans through a brutal September schedule. The secondary has player turnover, and this group struggled defending big passing plays at 86th in passing downs explosiveness during 2017.
There isn’t much time for growth with this schedule. A legitimate offense in UNLV kicks off the season, while punishing trench play awaits USC in road trips to Stanford and Texas, which will both be in revenge mode after losing to the Trojans last year.
Arizona and Utah are contenders in the Pac-12 South, and USC must visit both. A season-ending game with Notre Dame could present an Irish team motivated for a shot at the College Football Playoff.
With my win total projection at 7.2, I am invested on USC under 8.5 (-105). Most of my fade on Helton comes from a lack of in-game adjustments and penalties (114th in 2016, 122nd in 2017). With the highlights of the disastrous Cotton Bowl fresh in the memory, fade the Trojans until quarterback play and the secondary become stable.

[h=2]What else you need to know about USC[/h]With a first-time starter under center and a fresh secondary for the Trojans, I’m taking a shot on USC in Week 1. This USC front seven is experienced, but still struggled to make tackles in the backfield. That will be an issue from the start against an explosive Rebels ground attack. Take UNLV +24 or better.
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Collin Wilson@_Collin1

CFB Week 1: UNLV +30

Wouldn't be surprised to see this settle at 27.5 before kick. The UNLV rush attack should feast against a Trojan D that was 72nd in explosiveness and 113th in Stuff Rate
10:11 AM - May 21, 2018

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[h=1]Oregon State 2018 Betting Preview: The Worst Power 5 Team in the Country[/h]Collin WilsonAug 15, 2018 / 6:25 PM EDT

[h=2]Oregon State 2018 Betting Odds[/h]

To win the National Title: +999999
To win the Pac 12: +100000
To win the Pac 12 North: +16000
Win Total: 2.5 (over +135, under -165)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 14. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Oregon State 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 2.8

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Oregon State Under wins 2.5 (-165)
There are 100 different college football previews of Oregon State across the internet, and I am here to do two things differently.
One is say something nice — OSU should win a game! The other is recommending something to bet that’s not so nice. Most outlooks for the Beavers are doom and gloom, and they are spot-on.
Oregon State is power rated in a tier all to itself in the basement of the worst Power 5 conference. I personally have Group of 5 schools such as North Texas and Utah State rated ahead of the Beavers.
There are plenty of negatives to point out. Oregon State is 59th overall in returning production, and those players were 128th in points per game allowed.
The head coach left more than $12 million on the table in the middle of 2017, an unprecedented move when the likes of Bret Bielema are paid the same NOT to coach. With only a single victory in 2017, the new regime committed a wild secondary NCAA violation by recruiting players currently on Hawaii’s roster.

Stadium
✔@WatchStadium

.@HawaiiFootball coach Nick Rolovich shared his thoughts on Oregon State sending recruiting packages to current Hawaii players.

The Beavers were handed a "secondary violation" by the NCAA. #MWFB
10:41 AM - Jul 26, 2018

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Things are a mess, and a game as a projected 18-point favorite against Southern Utah may be the only positive day for the program this fall. If it isn’t, I applaud Oregon State for getting beer and wine in Reser Stadium for the first time. That should lead to some more fun moments for fans.
As for the wager on Oregon State, it’s all Under 2.5 wins (-165). Southern Utah should be a victory, as the Thunderbirds lose plenty of talent and rank just 28th in the FCS preseason poll.
The Beavers travel to their other possible wins against Colorado and Nevada. While the Buffs are 123rd overall in returning production with a rebuild of their own, Nevada is primed to breakout offensively in the Mountain West. Oregon State will probably need both those games to go over 2.5 wins.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Oregon State[/h]Oregon State is 4-12 ATS as a home favorite since 2013, and this will apply against Southern Utah. The Thunderbirds still have a capable offense and some of the best Big Sky offensive linemen. Look at the bright side Beavers fans … you did just win a national title in baseball.
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Knightrofins · Aug 17, 2018

[h=1]Washington State 2018 Betting Preview: Plenty of Hurdles Ahead for Cougars[/h]Collin WilsonAug 16, 2018 / 9:00 AM EDT

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[FONT=&quot][h=2]Washington State 2018 Betting Odds[/h]

To win the National Title: +100000
To make Playoff: +80000
To win the Pac-12: +10000
To win the Pac-12 North: +3750
Win Total: 6 (over +105, under -125)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 15. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Washington State 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 6.6

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Washington State Under 6 wins (-125)
This could be an underwhelming season in Pullman. Although the mathematical projections peg the Cougars for between six and seven wins, there are plenty of things going against them.
Washington State ranks 107th overall in returning production and lost key members of its coaching staff, including defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, and quarterback Luke Falk graduated.
The team also had to deal with the tragic death of quarterback Tyler Hilinski. The competition at QB will include a laundry list of players who have never taken a snap for Wazzu. Meanwhile, the defense will need to find a way to replace top tackler Hercules Mata’afa.

The Cougars face a daunting schedule and are favored in just five games, so there’s value on the Under 6 wins (-125). Victories over Utah and Arizona will be needed to cash an over ticket, and both of those teams are off a bye week when they face the Cougars.
Washington State was 102nd against explosiveness in 2017, and that number must improve with a schedule that includes not just Arizona’s Khalil Tate, but Oregon and Washington as well.
[h=2]What else you need to know about Washington State[/h]Wazzu is 14-5 ATS as a road underdog since 2013. This trend takes center stage for a Friday night road trip to USC on Sept. 21. The Trojans will look to avenge their loss to the Cougars last season, but USC could be beat-up, coming into that tilt on short rest after road games against Stanford and Texas. This game of the year is currently Washington State +15.5, and there’s plenty of value on the visitor.

[h=1]Washington 2018 Betting Preview: Bet Huskies To Win Pac-12[/h]Collin WilsonAug 16, 2018 / 12:45 PM EDT

[h=2]Washington 2018 Betting Odds[/h]

To win the National Title: +1450
To make Playoff: +220
To make NY6 Bowl: -170
To win the Pac-12: +103
To win the Pac-12 North: -158
Win Total: 10 (over -130, under +100)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 15. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Washington 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 10.1

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Washington to win the Pac 12 (+103)
The Pac-12’s hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff all reside on the Washington Huskies. Their opening game against Auburn may extinguish any hopes the conference has of competing for the national title — not that there is any internal pressure on coach Chris Petersen on Sept. 1.
Even with the loss of defensive lineman Vita Vea, the Huskies rank in the top 25 in returning production. Quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin lead the offensive charge behind the Pac-12’s largest offensive line. This team should be a force in the Pac-12 regardless of the Auburn result.

The loss of Vea should not have that big of an impact, considering the talent that returns to the Huskies’ defense. The secondary powered the Huskies to the playoff in 2016, and that may be the case again in 2018. Leading tackler Tevis Bartlett is also returning at linebacker, so there isn’t really much of a weakness on this defense.
If there is a knock on Petersen, it’s that Washington hasn’t been able to beat a truly great team. It’s been 11 years since he called that Statue of Liberty play for Boise State against Oklahoma.
In the past two years, the Huskies have been handled by Penn State and Alabama in the postseason, suggesting they are not getting the competition from their conference foes that they need to compete for a national championship.
While odds have moved from 40-1 to 15-1 on the Huskies for the championship, the real value is in the Huskies to win the Pac-12 at around even money. They have a much easier schedule to navigate compared to Oregon and Stanford, although a road trip to Utah could cash Washington to not make the Playoff (-350).
[h=2]What else you need to know about Washington[/h]Looking to lay money on the opener against Auburn in Atlanta? Washington is 2-11 straight-up since 2014 as an underdog, thus fueling chatter about Petersen’s inability to win big games. While the game is properly lined at Washington +3, I will be looking for ways to back Auburn.
War Eagle fields NFL talent on the defensive line, and the blitz will be called frequently. That is something Washington and Browning have struggled with in the past, specifically against Alabama in 2016 in Atlanta.
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[h=1]Arizona State 2018 Betting Preview: Fade Herm Edwards Often[/h]Collin WilsonAug 16, 2018 / 2:11 PM EDT

[h=2]Arizona State 2018 Betting Odds[/h]

To win the National Title: +100000
To make Playoff: +12500
To win the Pac-12: +10000
To win the Pac-12 South: +1100
Win Total: 4.5 (over -140, under +110)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 15. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Arizona State 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 3.9

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Arizona State Under 4.5 wins (+110)
The Herm Edwards era is officially underway in Tempe. College football is a 365-day-per-year job, and much to Edwards’ surprise, recruiting is bit tougher than the NFL Draft. The former Jets coach is learning that collegiate athletes are not quite as disciplined as NFLers.
Edwards has been focusing on defense thus far in camp, and the depth chart is wide open, as the Sun Devils rank 115th in returning production. In early practices, Edwards has the team working out of a 3-3-5 scheme with a lot of the focus on the defensive backs. They ranked 112th in passing downs explosiveness, so it’s a secondary that needs plenty of attention.

The offense returns plenty of talent at the skill positions, but quarterback Manny Wilkins was constantly harassed last season behind an inconsistent offensive line. The Sun Devils ranked 115th in adjusted sack rate offensively, but that should improve thanks to transfers from USC and Stanford. This deeply experienced offensive line should allow Wilkins to create plenty of explosiveness.
Even with a refocused defense and Wilkins under center, this is still too tough of a schedule. In the Pac-12 South, Arizona State drew cross-division games with Washington, Oregon and Stanford. Those road trips to Oregon and Arizona will be chaos for a new defense.
I am betting on the Sun Devils win total Under 4.5 (+110), as they must sweep their winnable games to cash the over. That includes road trips to Colorado and San Diego State, while defending home turf against Oregon State and UCLA.
[h=2]What else you need to know about Arizona State[/h]The over is 13-2 when Arizona State is coming off a bye since 2009. Although the Sun Devils are under new management, this would apply at home against Stanford on Oct. 18.
Looking for an intriguing spot to fade Arizona State that includes coaching staff crossover? The Sun Devils travel to San Diego State on Sept. 15, directly after hosting a physical Michigan State team.

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New Arizona State defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales had been on the Aztecs’ defensive staff since 2011, and is looking to mimic the 3-3-5 as Rocky Long’s protege. But San Diego State got worse in efficiency and explosiveness under Gonzales in 2017, moving from 25th in overall havoc in 2016 to 79th in 2017.
No Game of the Year spread exists, but coming off a game against Sacramento State, look to back San Diego State -3 or better against the Sun Devils.

[h=1]Colorado 2018 Betting Preview: Up-Tempo Offense Won’t Solve Defensive Woes[/h]Collin WilsonAug 16, 2018 / 3:56 PM EDT

[h=2]Colorado 2018 Betting Odds[/h]

To win the National Title: +500000
To make Playoff: +25000
To win the Pac-12: +8000
To win the Pac-12 South: +1000
Win Total: 4.5 (over -150, under +120)

All lines taken from 5Dimes on Aug. 15. Always shop for the best line.

[h=2]Colorado 2018 Schedule, Betting Odds[/h]The Action Network Projected Wins: 4.3

[h=2]Bet To Watch[/h]Colorado Under 4.5 wins (+120)
There were plenty of signs that a drop was coming for Colorado last season after losing stud defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt to Oregon and plenty of defensive talent to the NFL following a strong 2016. The Buffs are rolling with the punches in 2018, entering the season 123rd overall in returning production.
Darrin Chiaverini takes over play-calling on offense and he wants quarterback Steven Montez to run an up-tempo attack. That shouldn’t be a problem for Montez as Colorado ranked in the top 20 in plays per game during 2017. Grad transfer Travon McMillian comes in from Virginia Tech to replace Phillip Lindsay in the backfield.

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The defense — which is led by defensive coordinator D.J. Eliot — is still looking for answers after Leavitt’s departure. Colorado fell from 24th to 105th in defensive efficiency from 2016 to 2017. JUCO help is on the way in the form of cornerbacks Mekhi Blackmon and Delrick Abrams and highly rated defensive lineman Mustafa Johnson.
Colorado will play five conference home games and only one of them against the upper echelon of teams in the Pac-12 (Utah on Nov. 17). In nonconference play, the Buffs take on old Big 8 rival Nebraska. There are opportunities to win games on this schedule, but the Buffaloes will need their defense to improve from their 112th adjusted sack rate in 2017.
We project Colorado as a favorite in only three games (Colorado State, New Hampshire and Oregon State), so it is hard to financially back five wins for the Buffs. I like under wins 4.5 (+120), and will look to take advantage of game-total overs when the Buffs go up-tempo while the defense is a work in progress.

[h=2]What else you need to know about Colorado[/h]Colorado is 0-6 ATS after a bye week since 2011. The Buffs will host Chip Kelly and UCLA on Sept. 28. The Bruins are expected to be favored by a touchdown.

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