Josh Gordon is back -- but when should you draft him?
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
- Ema
Few dispute the skills possessed by Cleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon, even at the age of 27. He not only showed them off in a truly dominant 2013 campaign, during which he caught 87 passes for 1,646 yards and 9 touchdowns with Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden and Brian Hoyer throwing the passes, but Gordon was more than competent last season with erratic DeShone Kizer at quarterback. Big numbers did not result because of Kizer, but Gordon still managed WR2 production in brief action.
Gordon made news this weekend when he rejoined his teammates after spending time at a treatment program, and while he remains restricted from practice, he could actually play in Week 1. Ah, the NFL, where the rules often are made up on the fly. Gordon's stock as a WR2 <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">slipped a bit in recent weeks, as once-eager fantasy managers opted for safer, more reliable choices who were actually performing in team camp and preseason games. But now a decision has arrived about risk versus reward in so many leagues.
</offer>Plenty of my colleagues will tell you about the Browns upgrading around Gordon, not only at quarterback but with possession receiver Jarvis Landry and the offensive line as well. Hey, it makes sense to me. It is better. The Browns will win some games this season, and Gordon, who certainly looks like he is in terrific shape and is ready to contribute, could play a key role. There is also the risk of something going awry, as it has in the past, and Gordon missing considerable time. He last played more than five games in a season in 2014!
Still, at least he is back. He will likely be back practicing any day, and the Browns, not exactly deep at receiver despite his presence and that of Landry, will laud his presence, his courage and his amazing skills. We are all going to hear and read about how great Gordon looks. I do not deny any of this, nor the fact that he could end up outscoring many of the wide receivers currently going in the early rounds of every draft. Gordon's upside is immense, and it does not matter if it is rookie Baker Mayfield, veteran Tyrod Taylor, Kizer, you or me throwing the passes. ... OK, it matters a bit.
The question about investment generally comes down to who else is available at the time, and the cost, be it a draft, an auction or even a trade. I have a hard time filling a roster spot with Gordon at the price it would take, when I see so many undervalued options available later and cheaper. I mean, Mike Williams of the Los Angeles Chargers in a double-digit round? Sign me up!
Gordon does not fit the mold of a safe top-20 option like Demaryius Thomas, Doug Baldwin or even Golden Tate, but I could see investing in him before the likes of unexciting veterans Michael Crabtree and Robert Woods, and injury risks like Alshon Jeffery. In fact, that is precisely when one should invest in fantasy, provided a team has other options in place just in case.
I suppose each one of us could look at this situation in a different way. Perhaps I should be more open to possibility, and in some drafts, I will be. Of course, we all should want Gordon to succeed. It would make for a great story, and certainly Browns fans deserve positives.
We just cannot know for sure -- and that goes for every player to a degree, but more so with this one -- if Gordon plays in one or all games, or anywhere in between. He offers more risk than virtually every player who is flex-eligible in the top 100 or so, but more reward than most. It is a tough sell in the first five rounds, so the question is, at what point do you feel comfortable investing?
Other thoughts from Week 2 preseason
-- I have to admit, it does not matter to me who plays quarterback for the Buffalo Bills in September. Presumed starter AJ McCarron did something serious to his collarbone/shoulder area on Friday night, and more tests are on the way, but does it matter? It is a tough break for McCarron, but I do not downgrade Kelvin Benjamin, Corey Coleman or Charles Clay if Nathan Peterman or rookie Josh Allen starts. McCarron has not really proved much himself.
-- As with the Bills, I am going to treat New York Jets receiver Robby Anderson as undervalued -- until his ADP rises -- whether rookie Sam Darnold starts or sits in September. I think Anderson has a better chance at WR2 status with Josh McCown at quarterback, but we have seen rookie passers play well enough to give their targeted options fantasy value, even if they are not so great. The quarterback pool is so deep, I cannot make a case for a rookie passer in any 10- or 12-team redraft format.
<article class="ad-300" style='background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; float: right; font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",Times,serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; orphans: 2; overflow: hidden; position: relative; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; z-index: 1000026;'>Gordon made news this weekend when he rejoined his teammates after spending time at a treatment program, and while he remains restricted from practice, he could actually play in Week 1. Ah, the NFL, where the rules often are made up on the fly. Gordon's stock as a WR2 <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">slipped a bit in recent weeks, as once-eager fantasy managers opted for safer, more reliable choices who were actually performing in team camp and preseason games. But now a decision has arrived about risk versus reward in so many leagues.
</offer>Plenty of my colleagues will tell you about the Browns upgrading around Gordon, not only at quarterback but with possession receiver Jarvis Landry and the offensive line as well. Hey, it makes sense to me. It is better. The Browns will win some games this season, and Gordon, who certainly looks like he is in terrific shape and is ready to contribute, could play a key role. There is also the risk of something going awry, as it has in the past, and Gordon missing considerable time. He last played more than five games in a season in 2014!
Still, at least he is back. He will likely be back practicing any day, and the Browns, not exactly deep at receiver despite his presence and that of Landry, will laud his presence, his courage and his amazing skills. We are all going to hear and read about how great Gordon looks. I do not deny any of this, nor the fact that he could end up outscoring many of the wide receivers currently going in the early rounds of every draft. Gordon's upside is immense, and it does not matter if it is rookie Baker Mayfield, veteran Tyrod Taylor, Kizer, you or me throwing the passes. ... OK, it matters a bit.
The question about investment generally comes down to who else is available at the time, and the cost, be it a draft, an auction or even a trade. I have a hard time filling a roster spot with Gordon at the price it would take, when I see so many undervalued options available later and cheaper. I mean, Mike Williams of the Los Angeles Chargers in a double-digit round? Sign me up!
Gordon does not fit the mold of a safe top-20 option like Demaryius Thomas, Doug Baldwin or even Golden Tate, but I could see investing in him before the likes of unexciting veterans Michael Crabtree and Robert Woods, and injury risks like Alshon Jeffery. In fact, that is precisely when one should invest in fantasy, provided a team has other options in place just in case.
I suppose each one of us could look at this situation in a different way. Perhaps I should be more open to possibility, and in some drafts, I will be. Of course, we all should want Gordon to succeed. It would make for a great story, and certainly Browns fans deserve positives.
We just cannot know for sure -- and that goes for every player to a degree, but more so with this one -- if Gordon plays in one or all games, or anywhere in between. He offers more risk than virtually every player who is flex-eligible in the top 100 or so, but more reward than most. It is a tough sell in the first five rounds, so the question is, at what point do you feel comfortable investing?
Other thoughts from Week 2 preseason
-- I have to admit, it does not matter to me who plays quarterback for the Buffalo Bills in September. Presumed starter AJ McCarron did something serious to his collarbone/shoulder area on Friday night, and more tests are on the way, but does it matter? It is a tough break for McCarron, but I do not downgrade Kelvin Benjamin, Corey Coleman or Charles Clay if Nathan Peterman or rookie Josh Allen starts. McCarron has not really proved much himself.
-- As with the Bills, I am going to treat New York Jets receiver Robby Anderson as undervalued -- until his ADP rises -- whether rookie Sam Darnold starts or sits in September. I think Anderson has a better chance at WR2 status with Josh McCown at quarterback, but we have seen rookie passers play well enough to give their targeted options fantasy value, even if they are not so great. The quarterback pool is so deep, I cannot make a case for a rookie passer in any 10- or 12-team redraft format.
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-- I wrote about the large void in the Washington running game last week (and my thoughts on other rookie running backs) after the Derrius Guice knee injury -- and since then, the organization has brought in several veterans for a potential role. Former New York Giants starter Orleans Darkwa was among them, and future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles are on the list. Good for them. Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson are dealing with injuries, but still: Do not preemptively draft a free-agent running back on the premise they end up in Washington. Rob Kelley, Perine and Thompson should suffice.
-- Tennessee Titans wide receiver Taywan Taylor was one of the statistical stars of the second preseason weekend, with 95 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns, and quite a few of us were intrigued last season when he saw brief opportunity. The issue here is about the health of Rishard Matthews, and it might seem truly ridiculous in a few months that we ever worried about that. Go ahead and make Taylor a late-round sleeper pick. There is upside here, but also a decent chance the Titans do not permit him much September run.
-- Ever heard of Detrez Newsome, Mike Boone or Chris Warren? You are not alone! These were among the top running backs statistically from the past weekend, and it just does not matter for fantasy, because they do not figure to have key roles and might not even make their respective teams, which in this case are the Chargers, Vikings and Raiders. Opportunity is kind of important, and I remind you that Corey Grant (Jaguars), Terrell Watson (Steelers) and Jarveon Williams (Bengals) were among the leading preseason rushers last season. I actually do like Jacksonville's Grant as next in line should something befall RB1 Leonard Fournette, but I could say that about myriad backups.
-- Tennessee Titans wide receiver Taywan Taylor was one of the statistical stars of the second preseason weekend, with 95 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns, and quite a few of us were intrigued last season when he saw brief opportunity. The issue here is about the health of Rishard Matthews, and it might seem truly ridiculous in a few months that we ever worried about that. Go ahead and make Taylor a late-round sleeper pick. There is upside here, but also a decent chance the Titans do not permit him much September run.
-- Ever heard of Detrez Newsome, Mike Boone or Chris Warren? You are not alone! These were among the top running backs statistically from the past weekend, and it just does not matter for fantasy, because they do not figure to have key roles and might not even make their respective teams, which in this case are the Chargers, Vikings and Raiders. Opportunity is kind of important, and I remind you that Corey Grant (Jaguars), Terrell Watson (Steelers) and Jarveon Williams (Bengals) were among the leading preseason rushers last season. I actually do like Jacksonville's Grant as next in line should something befall RB1 Leonard Fournette, but I could say that about myriad backups.
