Wide receivers with the toughest cornerback matchups
Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER
Football analysis has reached a new era in which player participation data has allowed us to analyze, predict and project wide receiver/cornerback matchups.
Though this data becomes exceptionally useful during the regular season, a thorough examination of each team's depth chart can allow us to determine strength of schedule for each wide receiver before the season even begins. Strength of schedule is one of many variables that allow us to generate rankings, projections and draft-day decisions, and WR/CB matchup data allows us to take that analysis to the next level.
Football analysis has reached a new era in which player participation data has allowed us to analyze, predict and project wide receiver/cornerback matchups.
Though this data becomes exceptionally useful during the regular season, a thorough examination of each team's depth chart can allow us to determine strength of schedule for each wide receiver before the season even begins. Strength of schedule is one of many variables that allow us to generate rankings, projections and draft-day decisions, and WR/CB matchup data allows us to take that analysis to the next level.
<strike></strike>Football analysis has reached a new era in which player participation data has allowed us to analyze, predict and project wide receiver/cornerback matchups.
Though this data becomes exceptionally useful during the regular season, a thorough examination of each team's depth chart can allow us to determine strength of schedule for each wide receiver before the season even begins. Strength of schedule is one of many variables that allow us to generate rankings, projections and draft-day decisions, and WR/CB matchup data allows us to take that analysis to the next level.
<strike></strike><strike></strike>Though this data becomes exceptionally useful during the regular season, a thorough examination of each team's depth chart can allow us to determine strength of schedule for each wide receiver before the season even begins. Strength of schedule is one of many variables that allow us to generate rankings, projections and draft-day decisions, and WR/CB matchup data allows us to take that analysis to the next level.
Football analysis has reached a new era in which player participation data has allowed us to analyze, predict and project wide receiver/cornerback matchups.
Though this data becomes exceptionally useful during the regular season, a thorough examination of each team's depth chart can allow us to determine strength of schedule for each wide receiver before the season even begins. Strength of schedule is one of many variables that allow us to generate rankings, projections and draft-day decisions, and WR/CB matchup data allows us to take that analysis to the next level.
<strike></strike>Football analysis has reached a new era in which player participation data has allowed us to analyze, predict and project wide receiver/cornerback matchups.
Though this data becomes exceptionally useful during the regular season, a thorough examination of each team's depth chart can allow us to determine strength of schedule for each wide receiver before the season even begins. Strength of schedule is one of many variables that allow us to generate rankings, projections and draft-day decisions, and WR/CB matchup data allows us to take that analysis to the next level.
For the purpose of this exercise, I've ranked each cornerback unit by focusing primarily on each team's top-three corners (offenses had three wide receivers on the field for 73 percent of pass plays last season), while also considering the health, talent and pedigree of each team's additional depth at the position. I also examined team's "shadowing" strategies to determine how tough each will be in a variety of areas, including clear No. 1, No. 2, left, right and slot wide receivers.
Once I had each cornerback unit ranked and analyzed, I took a look at each offense's 2018 schedule and determined which wide receivers will face the toughest cornerback slates this season.
Note that since many of your leagues won't include Week 17 in the fantasy schedule, only Weeks 1-16 are included in this analysis.
It's important not to overreact to any one variable when it comes to player evaluation, but this analysis should help you make better decisions (or at least break some ties) on draft day.
Check back throughout the season for the weekly WR/CB Matchup chart and analysis.
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Once I had each cornerback unit ranked and analyzed, I took a look at each offense's 2018 schedule and determined which wide receivers will face the toughest cornerback slates this season.
Note that since many of your leagues won't include Week 17 in the fantasy schedule, only Weeks 1-16 are included in this analysis.
It's important not to overreact to any one variable when it comes to player evaluation, but this analysis should help you make better decisions (or at least break some ties) on draft day.
Check back throughout the season for the weekly WR/CB Matchup chart and analysis.
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1. Kansas City Chiefs
Downgrade: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins
If there's a poster team for this season's series of WR/CB matchup columns, it's the Chiefs. Kansas City's receivers face the league's toughest cornerback schedule -- and it's not close. The slate includes the hardest schedule overall and for No. 1, No. 2 and left perimeter receivers. It's second-hardest on slot and right perimeter receivers.
Coach Andy Reid moves his receivers around plenty, but Watkins (69 percent perimeter last season) and Hill (62 percent) usually line up outside. This will mean matchups with star cover corners Casey Hayward (twice), Richard Sherman, Chris Harris Jr. (twice), Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Stephon Gilmore, William Jackson, Patrick Peterson, Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib and Jimmy Smith. And that doesn't even include a potentially lethal Cleveland group that includes Denzel Ward, T.J. Carrie and E.J. Gaines.
Kansas City will face nine of the top-11 cornerback groups and only three who are ranked worse than 15th. Hill and Watkins are both tremendous talents, but this is one of the hardest cornerback schedules imaginable. Both should be downgraded.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Downgrade: Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington
Steelers' wideouts will face one of the top-three hardest schedules for No. 1, No. 2 and left perimeter receivers. Brown is the team's obvious No. 1 receiver and lined up wide to the left on 52 percent of his 2017 routes. Brown is set to face a tougher-than-average corner during 11 of 15 games, including showdowns with Ward (twice), Brent Grimes, Smith (twice), Desmond Trufant, Jackson, Ramsey/Bouye, Harris Jr., Hayward, Gilmore and Marshon Lattimore.
Smith-Schuster, meanwhile, is primed for the league's 10th-hardest schedule for slot receivers. He'll see the likes of Harris Jr., Carrie (twice), Kendall Fuller, Desmond King and Patrick Robinson.
The Steelers face nine top-10 cornerback groups, though they could start quickly with Kansas City (30th) and Tampa Bay (29th) on the docket in Weeks 2-3.
The Steelers' offense is too good to be overly concerned here, but this could be a reason to pivot from Brown to a running back in the middle of the first round, or to go with another high-upside wide receiver over Smith-Schuster in Round 4.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Downgrade: Larry Fitzgerald
Arizona wideouts will face one of the six hardest schedules for No. 1, No. 2, slot and right perimeter receivers.
There are a ton of question marks on the Arizona wide receiver depth chart, but we know Fitzgerald is locked in at the top and as the team's primary slot man. Fitzgerald lined up inside on 63 percent of his routes last season. He'll have a tougher go than usual with slot corners Nickell Robey-Coleman (twice), Harris Jr., Brian Poole, King and Fuller on the docket.
Brice Butler, J.J. Nelson, Chad Williams and rookie Christian Kirk will battle it out for the No. 2 and No. 3 jobs, but the winner's inevitably hard schedule makes them less appealing on draft day.
4. Oakland Raiders
Downgrade: Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson, Ryan Switzer, Martavis Bryant
Oakland receivers face the one of the four hardest schedules against No. 1, No. 2, right perimeter and slot receivers.
<strike></strike>Cooper and Nelson are versatile and potentially could occasionally dodge clear shadow coverage from a top corner by moving around the formation. Still, the Raiders will face some of the league's deepest cornerback groups in the Rams, Browns, Chargers (twice), Steelers, Ravens and Broncos (twice).
Oakland's slot schedule is actually hardest in the league, which knocks some of the wind out of Switzer's sleeper appeal. Assuming he locks down the slot job, he'll face off with the likes of King (twice), Harris Jr. (twice), Fuller, Robey-Coleman, Brice McCain, Carrie and Mike Hilton.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Downgrade: Mike Evans
Interestingly, the Buccaneers' tough schedule pretty much applies only to the team's No. 1 receiver and players lined up wide to the left. In both cases, that would be Evans, who primarily lined up on the left perimeter last season (46 percent).
Evans is set for matchups with Lattimore (twice), Kyle Fuller, Trufant, Ward, Jackson, Josh Norman, Janoris Jenkins, Sherman and Smith. Eleven of his 15 outings will be against a defense that projects to be above average against a No. 1 receiver. With Jameis Winston's three-game suspension being the first, this is another reason to downgrade Evans a bit.
Tampa Bay actually faces the ninth-easiest schedule for a right perimeter receiver, which bodes well for breakout candidate Chris Godwin.
<strike></strike>Here is a breakdown of which teams will face the toughest schedules for each receiver position:
Toughest slates for No. 1 WRs: Chiefs, Raiders, Steelers, Seahawks
Seattle faces the fourth-toughest slate for No. 1 and slot receivers, which is bad news for Doug Baldwin. The soon-to-be 30-year-old is already battling a knee injury, he's positioned for a tough schedule, and Seattle is moving back to a run-first offense. He's a tough sell at the second-/third-round turn.
Toughest slates for No. 2 WRs: Chiefs, Steelers, Saints
<strike></strike>New Orleans' wide receivers will face the eighth-toughest overall schedule, but it's actually not too bad against No. 1 or slot receivers. The Saints do, however, face quite a few teams with good No. 2 corners, which will make life harder on Ted Ginn Jr. opposite Thomas.
Toughest slates for slot WRs: Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos
Rookie Courtland Sutton appears to be nailing down the No. 3 job in Denver, which will mean more slot work for Emmanuel Sanders. He and DaeSean Hamilton will have their hands full when lined up inside.
Toughest slates for primary left WRs: Chiefs, Steelers, Raiders, Bills
Toughest slates for primary right WRs: Packers, Chiefs, Cardinals, Giants
