The 'Do Draft' list: Undervalued players to pick in fantasy football
Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER
Call me crazy, and you would not be the first, but I miss the TV commercials where the confident, bearded fellow used to tell everyone, and I am paraphrasing, that he did not always drink beer, but when he did, he knew exactly which beer he wanted. I feel that way about Chicago Bears tight end Trey Burton this fantasy season. I mean, I know I have to draft a tight end in each fantasy league, and will at some point, but I do not do it early in drafts or invest significant money in the position in auctions. I wait a while and ... Burton is so often the one I choose to secure, an outstanding 10th-round selection.
One of the themes I believe in is that rookie quarterbacks are going to make mistakes and drive their coaches and fantasy managers wild, but when they get to that second season, good things tend to happen if the organization has made proper decisions. Like with Oakland's Derek Carr and the Rams' Jared Goff, good things happened when the level of talent around them vastly improved, and they had a chance to succeed. Year 1 was about seeing the pace of the pro game, getting reps and, of course, mistakes would happen. Year 2 went considerably better.
I have been preaching about Kansas City Chiefs sophomore Patrick Mahomes but also believe Bears passer Mitchell Trubisky, now that the organization has upgraded the offensive line, the skill positions and especially the coaching, will thrive. Offensive-minded Matt Nagy comes over from the Chiefs to run things, and while it does not make me want to view Trubisky as quite a top-12 QB yet, I think Burton immediately inherits the Travis Kelce role that Nagy established. Look at that Chicago offense, and it makes sense to me.
<strike></strike>After all, Burton did play a key role at times for loaded Philadelphia, catching five touchdown passes during the regular season and throwing a brilliant passing one in the Super Bowl, and he can absolutely handle a large role in Chicago. In fact, he will.
Burton boasts good hands and showed in several games last season he can get open, whether it is at the goal line or not. He can block, but I doubt the Bears want him doing a ton of it. The team has wide receivers of varying skills, health and career achievement, but Burton should be one of the most targeted options. I see Evan Engram numbers ahead, with something like 70 catches for 750-plus yards and at least six scores.
Anyway, Burton has already found his merry way onto a bunch of my teams. I will not draft a tight end in the first few rounds, and Burton's ADP is 12th round. Works for me! Here are others, listed by position, whom I seem to be choosing in my myriad drafts.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: I am not sure what more this fellow has to do to earn credit in the fantasy world. After all, Stafford finished seventh in fantasy quarterback scoring last season, and it is not as if his surrounding talent is any worse. The year before, he was also seventh, when everyone presumed the retirement of Hall of Fame wide receiver Calvin Johnson would crush his stats. It did not. Stafford has been top-10 four of five seasons, and still fantasy managers always seem to pass on him. Well, in the 11th round or so, I do not. Stafford is always among the leaders in pass attempts and passing yards, and he has not surpassed 10 interceptions in the past two seasons. The touchdowns are there, too. By the way, if you have not noticed from my "Do Not Draft" column, in standard leagues (not the 2-QB versions), I ignore quarterbacks until acquiring a strong base of eight or more running backs and wide receivers. Every time.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Please stop telling me about the interceptions he is throwing in practice. Sure, he is not Alex Smith. Mahomes has a strong arm and he will throw deep. When one throws deep, the other team can often get in the way. Mahomes also makes things happen with his feet. I expect a borderline top-10 fantasy season right away.
Alex Smith, Washington Redskins: He was the No. 4 quarterback for fantasy last year, and ESPN Fantasy projects him to be No. 5 this year, so how is he going in Round 12? OK, so he switched franchises, but I think the Redskins are going to throw a ton -- despite the Adrian Peterson signing, as if that makes everything OK again -- and that favors the careful Smith, who also adds significant value with his legs.
Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers: He has topped 4,200 passing yards in five consecutive seasons and thrown between 26 and 34 touchdown passes in 10 straight. Interceptions can be a problem, but he was a top-10 fantasy quarterback last season and can be so again. Plus, I really like 2-QB formats more than standard, so I think deeper than the obvious names.
Others: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings; Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears; Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (13th in QB scoring last season).
Running back
Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears: I do not want to make things too obvious, so when it comes to the predetermined top running backs, I am largely cool with all of them. Le'Veon Bell versus Todd Gurley II for No. 1, I can go either way, but I have Bell first. I love Alvin Kamara, even one spot ahead of Saquon Barkley. Dalvin Cook is healthy and will handle a heavy load and thrive. I am skeptical Christian McCaffrey gets 200 rushing attempts, but he was a top-10 PPR option without them.
Howard was 15th in PPR scoring despite a paltry 23 receptions for an even more embarrassing 125 receiving yards. I think those numbers rise to, like, 35 catches, 250 yards, perhaps a touchdown or two. Howard can be Leonard Fournette. That is all that separated them -- the receiving work -- and this new Bears regime is smarter and touts Howard as capable in that respect. I think it happens. Do not avoid Howard in PPR.
Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos: I do not avoid the Giants' Barkley, but I have not been getting him in any leagues. I have been getting Freeman. I do not think the Oregon product will outscore the Penn State one, but this is about value. Barkley goes top-6 overall. Freeman goes in Round 5. I love that value for a potential three-down back in a better offense than most realize. Case Keenum is a huge upgrade.
Duke Johnson Jr., Cleveland Browns: This organization did add Nick Chubb through the draft and Carlos Hyde through free agency, but ... so what? Johnson is the preeminent pass-catcher out of the backfield not named Le'Veon Bell the past three seasons, and Johnson finished 11th in PPR scoring among running backs last season, a shade behind McCaffrey. He was terrific, and the Browns secured him with a long-term deal. You think Hyde or Chubb will crush his value? I will allow that Johnson's touchdown rate seems high, especially with the non-catching portion, but we are talking point per reception, so I do not care if he reaches 350 rushing yards. I think he might anyway. This is a top-20 fantasy running back going well past that. I draft him consistently.
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints: Briefly, I love Kamara, but Ingram returns after a month and will have a role. If he slips in your drafts because managers have no patience, get him. The Saints' offense can again support two running backs. I think Ingram will be a strong RB2 from Week 5 on.
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks: Nothing against Chris Carson, but Penny's finger injury is no big deal, and he should play in Week 1. Fantasy managers should not need to play him that soon, though. Penny is better than Carson and will earn the starting role. We can never plan for injuries, and perhaps each of them has trouble with this, but Penny falling four rounds for a minor injury that might not cost him time is blatant overreacting by fantasy managers. Go get New England Patriots rookie Sony Michel, too. He might not have contributed in Week 1 for Bill Belichick anyway. He will by October.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers: C'mon, his suspension is for a mere two weeks! Really, you cannot wait that long when most players are healthy and the bye weeks do not start until Week 4? This is a talented player. You cannot think Ty Montgomery is going to play a large role in the rushing attack.
Others: Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley, Washington Redskins; Jordan Wilkins, Indianapolis Colts; D'Onta Foreman, Houston Texans (patience); Corey Grant, Jacksonville Jaguars
Wide receiver
<strike></strike>Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals: Again, this is about value, and I have no issue with the standard top-10 receivers. Fitzgerald finished last season as the No. 4 PPR wide receiver, and he is slipping to the fourth round because of age bias. Catches matter! Fitzgerald is not a smart investment in dynasty, but for 2018, he sure is. Also, know your league rules. Fitzgerald rocks in PPR.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns: This fellow finished No. 5 in PPR scoring at his position. Moving to the Browns changes things, but then again, he did not exactly have a prime Dan Marino throwing to him in Miami. He had Jay Cutler, and before that, Ryan Tannehill. The presence of Josh Gordon does not harm Landry's value. Nobody is saying he finishes top 10 in PPR, but he is a sure WR2 for me, so I keep ending up with him.
Golden Tate, Detroit Lions: Keep doubting Tate and Stafford, I keep stacking them. Tate outscored Doug Baldwin and Davante Adams because catching so many passes can make up for lack of touchdowns. Always.
Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers: I like his value, and that of Pierre Garcon to some degree, far more than that of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Those things do not need to be mutually exclusive, you know.
Robby Anderson, New York Jets: He had a nice stretch of six touchdowns in five games last season, and again, I do not care if it is the grizzled veteran or a rookie slingin' the passes. Anderson gets open downfield.
Cameron Meredith, New Orleans Saints: His ADP is Round 14, so I think picking up a potential starter in a Drew Brees offense makes a ton of sense there!
DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers: First-round wide receivers tend to struggle, but this one looks mature, and based on what is around him, he has to make an immediate impact.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers: Perhaps my favorite sleeper regardless of position, this was a top-10 pick in the real 2017 draft, now healthy and playing with an elite statistical quarterback. Even alongside Keenan Allen, Williams is going to emerge as a star, and his ADP is an embarrassment.
<strike></strike>Others: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams; Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson, Washington Redskins; Rishard Matthews, Tennessee Titans; Michael Gallup and Cole Beasley, Dallas Cowboys; John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals; Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears; John Brown, Baltimore Ravens; Donte Moncrief, Jacksonville Jaguars
Tight end
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts: No, I can honestly say I am not the least bit concerned about the addition of Eric Ebron. Still, I am not targeting Doyle over Burton.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: If, for some incredible reason, I cannot secure Chicago's Burton to my team, I do look for Kittle a bit later. Kittle closed out December with Garoppolo nicely and has interesting Doyle-like upside.
Others: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns; Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh Steelers; Vernon Davis, Washington Redskins (good luck thinking Jordan Reed plays half the games); Virgil Green, Los Angeles Chargers; Jake Butt, Denver Broncos.
One of the themes I believe in is that rookie quarterbacks are going to make mistakes and drive their coaches and fantasy managers wild, but when they get to that second season, good things tend to happen if the organization has made proper decisions. Like with Oakland's Derek Carr and the Rams' Jared Goff, good things happened when the level of talent around them vastly improved, and they had a chance to succeed. Year 1 was about seeing the pace of the pro game, getting reps and, of course, mistakes would happen. Year 2 went considerably better.
I have been preaching about Kansas City Chiefs sophomore Patrick Mahomes but also believe Bears passer Mitchell Trubisky, now that the organization has upgraded the offensive line, the skill positions and especially the coaching, will thrive. Offensive-minded Matt Nagy comes over from the Chiefs to run things, and while it does not make me want to view Trubisky as quite a top-12 QB yet, I think Burton immediately inherits the Travis Kelce role that Nagy established. Look at that Chicago offense, and it makes sense to me.
<strike></strike>After all, Burton did play a key role at times for loaded Philadelphia, catching five touchdown passes during the regular season and throwing a brilliant passing one in the Super Bowl, and he can absolutely handle a large role in Chicago. In fact, he will.
Burton boasts good hands and showed in several games last season he can get open, whether it is at the goal line or not. He can block, but I doubt the Bears want him doing a ton of it. The team has wide receivers of varying skills, health and career achievement, but Burton should be one of the most targeted options. I see Evan Engram numbers ahead, with something like 70 catches for 750-plus yards and at least six scores.
Anyway, Burton has already found his merry way onto a bunch of my teams. I will not draft a tight end in the first few rounds, and Burton's ADP is 12th round. Works for me! Here are others, listed by position, whom I seem to be choosing in my myriad drafts.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: I am not sure what more this fellow has to do to earn credit in the fantasy world. After all, Stafford finished seventh in fantasy quarterback scoring last season, and it is not as if his surrounding talent is any worse. The year before, he was also seventh, when everyone presumed the retirement of Hall of Fame wide receiver Calvin Johnson would crush his stats. It did not. Stafford has been top-10 four of five seasons, and still fantasy managers always seem to pass on him. Well, in the 11th round or so, I do not. Stafford is always among the leaders in pass attempts and passing yards, and he has not surpassed 10 interceptions in the past two seasons. The touchdowns are there, too. By the way, if you have not noticed from my "Do Not Draft" column, in standard leagues (not the 2-QB versions), I ignore quarterbacks until acquiring a strong base of eight or more running backs and wide receivers. Every time.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Please stop telling me about the interceptions he is throwing in practice. Sure, he is not Alex Smith. Mahomes has a strong arm and he will throw deep. When one throws deep, the other team can often get in the way. Mahomes also makes things happen with his feet. I expect a borderline top-10 fantasy season right away.
Alex Smith, Washington Redskins: He was the No. 4 quarterback for fantasy last year, and ESPN Fantasy projects him to be No. 5 this year, so how is he going in Round 12? OK, so he switched franchises, but I think the Redskins are going to throw a ton -- despite the Adrian Peterson signing, as if that makes everything OK again -- and that favors the careful Smith, who also adds significant value with his legs.
Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers: He has topped 4,200 passing yards in five consecutive seasons and thrown between 26 and 34 touchdown passes in 10 straight. Interceptions can be a problem, but he was a top-10 fantasy quarterback last season and can be so again. Plus, I really like 2-QB formats more than standard, so I think deeper than the obvious names.
Others: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings; Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears; Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (13th in QB scoring last season).
Running back
Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears: I do not want to make things too obvious, so when it comes to the predetermined top running backs, I am largely cool with all of them. Le'Veon Bell versus Todd Gurley II for No. 1, I can go either way, but I have Bell first. I love Alvin Kamara, even one spot ahead of Saquon Barkley. Dalvin Cook is healthy and will handle a heavy load and thrive. I am skeptical Christian McCaffrey gets 200 rushing attempts, but he was a top-10 PPR option without them.
Howard was 15th in PPR scoring despite a paltry 23 receptions for an even more embarrassing 125 receiving yards. I think those numbers rise to, like, 35 catches, 250 yards, perhaps a touchdown or two. Howard can be Leonard Fournette. That is all that separated them -- the receiving work -- and this new Bears regime is smarter and touts Howard as capable in that respect. I think it happens. Do not avoid Howard in PPR.
Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos: I do not avoid the Giants' Barkley, but I have not been getting him in any leagues. I have been getting Freeman. I do not think the Oregon product will outscore the Penn State one, but this is about value. Barkley goes top-6 overall. Freeman goes in Round 5. I love that value for a potential three-down back in a better offense than most realize. Case Keenum is a huge upgrade.
Duke Johnson Jr., Cleveland Browns: This organization did add Nick Chubb through the draft and Carlos Hyde through free agency, but ... so what? Johnson is the preeminent pass-catcher out of the backfield not named Le'Veon Bell the past three seasons, and Johnson finished 11th in PPR scoring among running backs last season, a shade behind McCaffrey. He was terrific, and the Browns secured him with a long-term deal. You think Hyde or Chubb will crush his value? I will allow that Johnson's touchdown rate seems high, especially with the non-catching portion, but we are talking point per reception, so I do not care if he reaches 350 rushing yards. I think he might anyway. This is a top-20 fantasy running back going well past that. I draft him consistently.
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints: Briefly, I love Kamara, but Ingram returns after a month and will have a role. If he slips in your drafts because managers have no patience, get him. The Saints' offense can again support two running backs. I think Ingram will be a strong RB2 from Week 5 on.
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks: Nothing against Chris Carson, but Penny's finger injury is no big deal, and he should play in Week 1. Fantasy managers should not need to play him that soon, though. Penny is better than Carson and will earn the starting role. We can never plan for injuries, and perhaps each of them has trouble with this, but Penny falling four rounds for a minor injury that might not cost him time is blatant overreacting by fantasy managers. Go get New England Patriots rookie Sony Michel, too. He might not have contributed in Week 1 for Bill Belichick anyway. He will by October.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers: C'mon, his suspension is for a mere two weeks! Really, you cannot wait that long when most players are healthy and the bye weeks do not start until Week 4? This is a talented player. You cannot think Ty Montgomery is going to play a large role in the rushing attack.
Others: Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley, Washington Redskins; Jordan Wilkins, Indianapolis Colts; D'Onta Foreman, Houston Texans (patience); Corey Grant, Jacksonville Jaguars
Wide receiver
<strike></strike>Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals: Again, this is about value, and I have no issue with the standard top-10 receivers. Fitzgerald finished last season as the No. 4 PPR wide receiver, and he is slipping to the fourth round because of age bias. Catches matter! Fitzgerald is not a smart investment in dynasty, but for 2018, he sure is. Also, know your league rules. Fitzgerald rocks in PPR.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns: This fellow finished No. 5 in PPR scoring at his position. Moving to the Browns changes things, but then again, he did not exactly have a prime Dan Marino throwing to him in Miami. He had Jay Cutler, and before that, Ryan Tannehill. The presence of Josh Gordon does not harm Landry's value. Nobody is saying he finishes top 10 in PPR, but he is a sure WR2 for me, so I keep ending up with him.
Golden Tate, Detroit Lions: Keep doubting Tate and Stafford, I keep stacking them. Tate outscored Doug Baldwin and Davante Adams because catching so many passes can make up for lack of touchdowns. Always.
Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers: I like his value, and that of Pierre Garcon to some degree, far more than that of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Those things do not need to be mutually exclusive, you know.
Robby Anderson, New York Jets: He had a nice stretch of six touchdowns in five games last season, and again, I do not care if it is the grizzled veteran or a rookie slingin' the passes. Anderson gets open downfield.
Cameron Meredith, New Orleans Saints: His ADP is Round 14, so I think picking up a potential starter in a Drew Brees offense makes a ton of sense there!
DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers: First-round wide receivers tend to struggle, but this one looks mature, and based on what is around him, he has to make an immediate impact.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers: Perhaps my favorite sleeper regardless of position, this was a top-10 pick in the real 2017 draft, now healthy and playing with an elite statistical quarterback. Even alongside Keenan Allen, Williams is going to emerge as a star, and his ADP is an embarrassment.
<strike></strike>Others: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams; Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson, Washington Redskins; Rishard Matthews, Tennessee Titans; Michael Gallup and Cole Beasley, Dallas Cowboys; John Ross, Cincinnati Bengals; Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears; John Brown, Baltimore Ravens; Donte Moncrief, Jacksonville Jaguars
Tight end
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts: No, I can honestly say I am not the least bit concerned about the addition of Eric Ebron. Still, I am not targeting Doyle over Burton.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: If, for some incredible reason, I cannot secure Chicago's Burton to my team, I do look for Kittle a bit later. Kittle closed out December with Garoppolo nicely and has interesting Doyle-like upside.
Others: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns; Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh Steelers; Vernon Davis, Washington Redskins (good luck thinking Jordan Reed plays half the games); Virgil Green, Los Angeles Chargers; Jake Butt, Denver Broncos.
