2018 Daddy Dank NFL

DaddyDank · Aug 23, 2018

The good news, last regular season we went 47-33-2 (57.32%) for +48.75*. The bad news; we went 2-6 in the playoffs and gave back 21.5*, so I'm anxious for this season. Going to wait until the pre-season winds down to start capping games but below are my division favorites with Super Bowl Predictions. Not putting anything on these but have added the lines from Bovada.

NFC North - Green Bay Packers (+140)
NFC South - Carolina Panthers (+275)
NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles (-155)
NFC West - Los Angeles Rams (-160)

NFC Wild Card Teams: San Francisco 49ers & New Orleans Saints

AFC North - Pittsburgh Steelers (-230)
AFC South - Houston Texans (+185)
AFC East - New England Patriots (-800)
AFC West - Oakland Raiders (+325)

AFC Wild Card Teams: Tennessee Titans & Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl: Packers (+650) vs. Texans (+1000)
Super Bowl Champs: Packers (+1100)

DaddyDank · Sep 6, 2018

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1091514

2017 Recap
Week 1 – 3-2 - +4*
Week 2 – 4-2 - +9.5*
Week 3 – 3-1-1 - +9.5*
Week 4 – 3-0 - +15*
Week 5 – 5-2 - +14*
Week 6 – 3-1 - +9.5*
Week 7 – 1-4 – (17*)
Week 8 – 2-3 – (6.25*)
Week 9 – 5-1 - +19.5*
Week 10 – 2-1-1 - +4.5*
Week 11 – 2-4 – (11.75*)
Week 12 – 0-5 – (-27.5*)
Week 13 – 3-2 - +3.5*
Week 14 – 4-3 - +3.5*
Week 15 – 4-1 - +14.5*
Week 16 – 3-2 - +4.25*
Week 17 – Took Week Off
Wild Card – 1-3 – (10.75*)
Divisional – 0-2 – (10.5*)
Championship – 1-1 (.25*)

DaddyDank · Sep 6, 2018

A couple of people have messaged me asking me to elaborate on my betting strategy. I’m not a professional gambler – this is a hobby. I play a lot of poker and bet on a lot of football, but I do have a day job that supports my family and my gambling hobbies. In this thread I’ll post my plays this season. I notice on the RX a lot of the users like more than just plays posted, this year I’m going to try to give some insight into my thoughts.

My betting strategy was adopted after I read Pat Hagerty’s book, Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover. I also agree with a lot of Pat’s themes as to when to bet on teams, fading the public, not blindly following someone, etc. I highly recommend that book to the casual better. He’s also got a great website. I don’t know Pat and have never met him, but I like his style.

Rarely do I fluctuate the units bet, I’m typically always betting 5 units. Units stay the same each season, but as I’ve built a bankroll, units are more than they used to be. For the NFL I like to get my games in on Tuesday. I usually pick five games and bet those five games. Sometimes if I like a first half spread or O/U I’ll take that the day of a game. Sometimes it’s less than five games, sometimes I take more; it just depends on the card. Either way, what I post in this thread is what I have, I don’t just add games to add games. Furthermore, I shop lines, so sometimes the lines are the local book, other times they are Bovada, Sportsbook or the Greek. I try to get everything at -110 or better, but sometimes it’s just not possible.

Hope this helps. Let’s win some cash this season.

DaddyDank · Sep 6, 2018

Week 1

Usually I’m extremely confident in my Week 1 NFL card. That is not the case this season. I feel like there are many games that are a cake-walk, but I feel the NFL’s Week 1 card is very, very tough. That’s why it’s taken me until Thursday to even get one game in. I wanted to take Atlanta +2.5, but that ship has sailed. At basically a pick-em, I’m passing on tonight’s game.

San Francisco +6.5 (-110) 5*
The public is probably thinking that the team that reached the NFC Championship is playing against a team who went 6-10. San Francisco finished the season strong last year, winning their last five games with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Minnesota is coming off an incredible season where I feel they overachieved. San Francisco is travelling to Minnesota where I think they could potentially go home with a victory. Love the 49ers +pts. here.

Oakland +4.5(-110) 5*
Kind of similar to the above game, Oakland struggled and finished 6-10, losing their last four games and costing Jack Del Rio his job. They’ve brought in two key figures; John Gruden and Jordy Nelson. With these two coupled with Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, I look for some big things for Oakland’s offense this season. The Rams had rookie coach in 2017 who had a really good season, but got cut short by the Atlanta Falcons in the Wild Card round. They have, in my opinion, the best running back in the NFL in Todd Gurley. QB Jared Goff struggles at key times. The Rams have high expectations this year and I look for them to underperform, Coach Sean McVay having a sophomore slump. This one I think will be pretty high scoring and probably come down to the wire. Very confident in Oakland getting 4.5 here.

Waiting on other games as the juice isn’t right yet. Again, tough week but these are in…

PeePee · Sep 6, 2018

GL this season DD

DaddyDank · Sep 7, 2018

Adding...

Kansas City +3.5 (-110) 5*

UnderSiege · Sep 7, 2018

Not really a fan of the SF pick and heres why: You are basically buying into all of the hype of the offseason and last years 5 game winning streak for the 9ers. My guess is that public perception is that the 49ers are going to be a great team. With their recent history I need to see it before I put my money on it. Minnesota is a long ways away from SF and the Vikes always plays better on turf. They are an undersized defense that can get pushed around on grass but when they get in the dome they are fast and a force to be reckoned with. With all that, I am not betting on this game as it is too close to call for me. So good luck to you, Dank. Hope you get that money.

DaddyDank · Sep 9, 2018

Adding

Tennessee -1 (-120) 5*

DaddyDank · Sep 9, 2018

UnderSiege said:
Not really a fan of the SF pick and heres why: You are basically buying into all of the hype of the offseason and last years 5 game winning streak for the 9ers. My guess is that public perception is that the 49ers are going to be a great team. With their recent history I need to see it before I put my money on it. Minnesota is a long ways away from SF and the Vikes always plays better on turf. They are an undersized defense that can get pushed around on grass but when they get in the dome they are fast and a force to be reckoned with. With all that, I am not betting on this game as it is too close to call for me. So good luck to you, Dank. Hope you get that money.

Thanks UnderSiege. I thought about this a little as well, but still feel Minnesota is grossly overrated. But you're right, we'll know a lot more today at 4:30pm...Best of Luck to you this season!

DaddyDank · Sep 9, 2018

Adding
Indianapolis -2 (-110) 5*

DaddyDank · Sep 10, 2018

Adding
Detroit -7 (-110) 5*

HacheMan · Sep 10, 2018

GL tonight

DaddyDank · Sep 11, 2018

Week 1 Recap

San Francisco +6.5 (-110) 5* - Loss
Kansas City +3.5 (-110) 5* - Win
Tennessee -1 (-120) 5* - Loss
Indianapolis -2 (-110) 5* - Loss
Detroit -7 (-110) 5* - Loss
Oakland +4.5(-110) 5* - Loss

Week 1
1-4 - -23.00*

YTD
1-4 - -23.00*

Brutal first week. Should not have played Detroit, that was an impulse bet based on my degenerate ass needing action, man was it bad. Still not too mad at the other losses. Bonehead QB throw cost me in SF, IND, and OAK.....I don't know if the weather cost me in the TEN game. Oh well, looking at initial week 2 card. I love this coming week.

DaddyDank · Sep 11, 2018

Week 2

Baltimore PK (-110) - 5*
Indianapolis +6 (-115) - 5*
Kansas City +5.5 (-110) - 5*
Los Angeles Chargers -7 (-115) - 5*

Watching Green Bay closely as to see Rodger's status. Also want to see how Tennessee's injuries affect the roster this week.

DaddyDank · Sep 17, 2018

Week 2 Recap

Baltimore PK (-110) - 5* - Loss
Indianapolis +6 (-115) - 5* -Win
Kansas City +5.5 (-110) - 5* - Win
Los Angeles Chargers -7 (-115) - 5* - Win

Not going to be playing MNF, think the current line at CHI-5 is right where it needs to be. Taking the winning weekend. Good to be back on this side, hopefully next weekend get over the hump...

Week 2
3-1 - +9.5*

YTD
4-5 - -13.50*

HacheMan · Sep 17, 2018

Nice job

DaddyDank · Sep 19, 2018

Week 3

Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 (-115) 5*
San Francisco +7 (-120) 5*
Indianapolis +6.5 (-110) 5*
Denver +5.5 (-110) 5*
Cincinnati +3 (-115) 5*
Green Bay -3 (-105) 5*

Looks like a dog weekend.

DaddyDank · Sep 27, 2018

Week 3 Recap

Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 (-115) 5* - Loss
San Francisco +7 (-120) 5* - Loss
Indianapolis +6.5 (-110) 5* - Win
Denver +5.5 (-110) 5* - Loss
Cincinnati +3 (-115) 5* - Loss
Green Bay -3 (-105) 5* - Loss

Well, it was a dog weekend, I just picked the wrong ones.

uppy:

uppy:

Week 3
1-5 - -23.25*

YTD
5-10- -36.75*

DaddyDank · Sep 27, 2018

Week 4

Minnesota +7 (Even) - 5*
Detroit +3 (-110) - 5*
Miami +7 (-115) - 5*
Indianapolis -1.5 (-110) - 5*
Buffalo +9.5 (-110) - 5*
New York Jets +7.5 (-110) - 5*
Los Angeles Chargers -10 (-110) - 5*
Baltimore +3 (-105) - 5*

DaddyDank · Oct 4, 2018

Week 4 Recap

Minnesota +7 (Even) - 5* Push
Detroit +3 (-110) - 5* - Win
Miami +7 (-115) - 5* - Loss
Indianapolis -1.5 (-110) - 5* - Loss
Buffalo +9.5 (-110) - 5* - Loss
New York Jets +7.5 (-110) - 5* - Loss
Los Angeles Chargers -10 (-110) - 5* - Loss
Baltimore +3 (-105) - 5* - Win

Week 4
2-5-1 - -17.75*

YTD
7-15-1 - -54.50*

Another brutal week...but it's still early. Still have 13 weeks to get it back!

uppy: