NCAA Football 2018-2019

8/25/2018 (0-0, +0.00)

Wyoming Cowboys -5 (-110), 1 unit: Hard to back a new QB on the road in his first start. While he's not surrounded by a lot of talent at the skill positions he is protected by an experienced O line that will give him time, even against the Aggies blitzing defense. Two more things that tip the balance in the Cowboys favor. First, their defense. This is an experienced unit that has been playing together for a long time. Second, Bohl is an excellent coach and now that he has "his players" making up the vast majority of the program he will begin to excel. Giving him this much time to prepare for a game is enough to get me to take Wyoming.

8/30/2018 (1-0, +1.00)

Purdue Boilermakers -1 (-110), 1 unit: The number keeps dropping because Thorson is going to play. Take this for what it is worth, I’m not claiming to have some huge inside information but I know someone who has seen him practice and told me while he looks ok he’s not at 100 percent. Under that scenario I like the Boilermakers. This is a very dynamic Purdue offense that can swap one QB for the other and has a lot of options at running back. On the defensive side of the ball the edge goes to the Wildcats as the Boilermakers lost a lot of their 2017 production. I believe Brohm has this program going in the right direction and the opportunity to open the season by making a statement on national TV at home combined with a less than healthy Thorson has me backing the home team.

Tulane Green Wave +7 (-120), 1 unit: The Demon Deacons are starting a true freshman on the road. They have a very strong defense returning but did lose four of their front seven. That does not set up well against the Green Wave. They finally have the players and weapons they want for the triple option. I expect Tulane to control the clock and Wake Forest to have trouble scoring. Combine those two and I’ll take a TD at home in what they should view as a big game getting a P5 opponent on national TV.

8/31/2018 (2-1, +0.90)

Utah State Aggies +23.5 (-110), 1 unit: Spartans are one of the teams I'll be backing a lot this year but not in this spot. The Aggies are a very experienced team with 18 returning starters. Most of the team was in this same situation last year at Wisconsin where Utah State led for most of the first half before getting steamrolled in the second. The moment will not be too big for them. Utah State has a slight special teams advantage and Michigan State while not in a "look-ahead" spot is certainly in a "don't show too much" spot with a game at Arizona State next week.

9/1/2018 (3-1, +1.90)

Northern Illinois Huskies +10 (-110), 1 unit: Hawkeyes are another team I'll likely be backing frequently this season but not here. The Huskies return a lot of players including defensive star Sutton Smith who causes matchup problems for everyone. Iowa is without their two starting tackles due to suspension and I expect Northern Illinois to spend a lot of time in the Hawkeye backfield. On the other side of the ball the Huskies return 8 players and their entire OL while Iowa has to replace a lot including Jewell and Jackson. I"ll take the double digits in what should be a close game.

UNLV Rebels +26 (-110), 1 unit: Rebels return 7 players on both sides of the ball while the Trojans return 13 total starters but lose Darnold and Jones. Most importantly this is a huge game for UNLV while USC heads to Stanford next week and to Texas the week after that. This is a "look-ahead" and "don't show too much" spot and while I expect a Trojan victory I think UNLV can stay inside the number.

Cincinnati Bearcats +14.5 (-110), 1 unit: In a year or two Chip Kelly's team will look dramatically different. Until then he's going to have trouble finding the players to run his high octane system. They don't have enough on the defensive side of the ball to make stops and they don't have the right weapons on offense. The Bearcats come in with an experienced QB, a tough minded defense and the chance to make a name for Coach Fickell by beating a big name team on the road. Expect UCLA to make just enough mistakes and Cincinnati to make just enough plays to stay within the number.

Washington Huskies +3 (-130), 1 unit: Great game to start the season. Tigers are close to home and return Stidham at QB. Other than that I think the advantages lie with the Huskies. In what should be a tough defensive contest I actually like Browning better than Stidham as I expect him to manage the game better. Gaskins gives them a weapon at RB and they have a very experienced OL. On defense Auburn is one of the best in the country as is Washington. In what should be a slugfest I trust Browning and Petersen more than I trust Stidham and Malzahn, especially getting a FG.

Wyoming Cowboys +3 (-110), 1 unit: I must be missing something here. Exceptional defense, at home with a game under their belt against a very inexperienced team playing their first game. The only reason this isn't a 2x or 3x play for me is it seems too easy and I feel like it's a sucker play.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish -1 (-110), 1 unit: These two teams are incredibly similar but to me the Fighting Irish are the play for two reasons. First, I trust Kelly a lot more than Harbaugh. Harbaugh just hasn't shown the ability to live up to the hype and win big games. Losing a stud WR who was supposed to be a huge part of their game plan doesn't help. Second, I like Wimbush a lot more than Patterson. Patterson's numbers came mostly during garbage time and he's shown a tendency to turn the ball over. Wimbush brings an extra dimension with his feet and in what should be a tight defensive battle I expect the home crowd to carry Notre Dame to an early season victory.

Hop...…..BOL with all your weekend action...…...have a profitable season...…...indy

Thanks indy....always appreciate your kind words. Best of luck to you all season!!

9/3/2018 (6-4, +1.40)

Florida State Seminoles -7 (-110), 2 units: Seminoles showed me a lot by fighting through a tough situation last season after their coach quit on them. They didn't play any world beaters but they showed up and played hard. I think they have a real chip on their shoulders after last year. They return two very good QBs and an experienced OL and I would expect both QBs to play. I'm not a huge fan of Taggart but he can absolutely coach offense and I look for Florida State to show quite a few looks tonight and to play very quickly. That does not bode well for a very inexperienced Hokies defense. Virginia Tech doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Seminoles, especially in a night game at Doak Campbell.

Florida State 2H -7 (-105), 1u

9/8/2018 (6-5, -1.85)

Eastern Michigan Eagles +16 (-110), 1 unit: Tough spot for the Boilermakers. They lost a heartbreaker to Northwestern and have Missouri next week. Purdue doesn't have much of a running game to control the clock so even if they get ahead the backdoor should be open. Eagles have a strong D that should help keep them in this thing all day.

Houston Cougars -3 (-130), 1 unit: Something looks off with the Wildcats. Tate looked disinterested last week as they lost to a mediocre BYU squad. The Cougars D Line will harass Arizona all day and King will have enough time and options to keep the offense moving. I also like playing against a West Coast team playing an early game.

Nevada Wolfpack +10 (-110), 1 unit: I don't always go against West Coast teams playing early. Especially when their opponent is in a sandwich spot. Last week the Commodores crushed in state rival and headache MTSU. Next week they head to Notre Dame. I expect Vandy to keep it vanilla, try and keep everyone healthy and escape with a win. With the Wolfpack's high powered offense I will gladly take double digits in this spot.

South Carolina Gamecocks +10.5 (-110), 1 unit: This one is going to go up and down the field and I like the idea of getting double digits with a home team in that case. The Gamecocks impressed me by not looking past Coastal Carolina last week. With Bentley, Dowdle and Samuel South Carolina has weapons. The Bulldogs are incredibly talented and incredibly tough on both sides of the ball but this will be the first road game for a relatively inexperienced D and I can see the home team hanging around all game.

Arkansas State Red Wolves +36.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Crimson Tide are amazing. They also have a tendency to let down against non Big 5 opponents the second week of the season after playing a big name team the first week. If Alabama has any questions it is in the secondary and I'll take 5+ TDs with Hansen under center against the Bama DBs.

Iowa Hawkeyes -3 (-130), 1 unit: Big advantage for the Hawkeyes with the Cyclones having a cancellation last week. Iowa started slow but turned things on in the second half. They neutralized a top D Lineman in Smith and did so with their backup tackles. They get their OL back in tact this week and I expect them to move the ball relatively easily against an Iowa State team that faded dramatically down the stretch last year.

Bowling Green Falcons +15 (-110), 1 unit: Tough to see the Terrapins being focused for this one after their win last week. It was easy for them to have an "us against the world" mentality with all the controversy in the program but that has to have faded. Trying to get the players fired up to go to the middle of nowhere and play a MAC team is a tough challenge. Pelini always has tough defenses and I think Maryland is in for a fight in this one.

Wyoming Cowboys +19.5 (-110), 1 unit: As Drew Lock goes, so goes the Tigers. Taking a deeper look, he plays well against bad defenses. This Cowboys team is not a bad defense. In fact, they're a good defense. Missouri has Purdue next week and it's easy to see them looking past a team that got crushed last week.

Northern Illinois Huskies +11 (-110), 1 unit: Situational play. The Utes have Washington next week and are traveling to DeKalb, Illinois to play a tough, experienced Huskies squad. I'll take the double digits with the home team.

Fresno State Bulldogs PK (-110), 1 unit: This line stinks. A B10 team is at home coming off a big win and are pick 'em? Taking a deeper dive it makes sense. The Bulldogs were the surprise of the MW last season and return 15 starters . The Gophers are starting a freshman walk on QB and I expect him to struggle against a tough D in front of an apathetic crowd.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane +23 (-110), 1 unit: Another situational play. Longhorns off a tough loss and have USC and TCU on deck. Golden Hurricane can move the ball and should score enough to keep themselves within the number against a Texas team that is not exactly an offensive juggernaut.

Hop...…..here's to a solid weekend buddy...…...indy

good looks ... good luck tomorrow!

Thanks indy and Scott...appreciate it. No time for write ups this week but after the crap I've put out, who cares???

9/15/2018 (10-11-1, -4.45)

Syracuse Orange +3 (-105), 1 unit
Boise State Broncos +1 (-110), 1 unit
Miami (OH) Redhawks +13 (-110), 1 unit
Northern Illinois Huskies -14 (-110), 1 unit
Houston Cougars -2.5 (-110), 1 unit
Purdue Boilermakers +6 (-110), 1 unit
Texas Longhorns -3 (-130), 1 unit
TCU Horned Frogs +13.5 (-110), 1 unit
Utah Utes +5 (-110), 1 unit
San Diego State Aztecs +5 (-110), 1 unit

Catchin' those numbers..on the hop..gotta love it..$$$..GL..$$..

Thanks 8ate...in Vegas. Placing them on the fly.

Marshall Thundering Herd +6 (-110), 1 unit
Michigan State Spartans -4.5 (-110), 1 unit
Northern Illinois Huskies +10 (-110), 1 unit
Oregon State Beavers +5 (-110), 1 unit
TCU Horned Frogs +3 (-105), 1 unit
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +20 (-110), 1 unit
South Carolina Gamecocks -1.5 (-110), 1 unit
Utah State Aggies -10 (-110), 1 unit
Eastern Michigan Eagles +13 (-110), 1 unit

Sorry for the brief writeups.....this is not how/why I capped them, just a few quick thoughts. If you have any questions (so you can fade my garbage) just ask.

9/29/2018 (22-22-2, -4.50)

Syracuse Orange +25.5 (-110), 1 unit: Orange have a history of staying inside big numbers on the road in tough environments. Tigers have to be in a little disarray with Bryant leaving the team.
Air Force Falcons -4 (-110), 1 unit: Wolfpack defense can't stop the run. Wanted to make a big play but Falcons have Navy next week.
Ohio State Buckeyes -3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Both teams have great offenses. Buckeyes have a very good defense. Nittany Lions have struggled early against inferior opponents.
Texas Tech Red Raiders +3.5 (-110), 1 unit: Red Raiders have a much better D than I thought. Mountaineers yet to be tested and are now in a brutal road environment.
North Texas Mean Green -7 (-110), 1 unit: Mean Green are a solid team across the board. Getting value as Bulldogs played LSU close in their Super Bowl last year.
Mississippi State Bulldogs -7 (-110), 1 unit: Bulldogs hyper focused after a loss and their ex-coach returning. Gators showed well against a bad Tennessee team.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +3 (-110), 1 unit: Great opportunity for the Blue Raiders and their talented QB coming off a bye. Owls off a tough loss in a huge game.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -5.5 (-110), 1 unit: Cardinal can't have much left in the tank after last week and long travel. Book gives Irish a new dimension.
Texas A&M Aggies -21 (-110), 1 unit: Aggies have two losses to two best in the country and played them close. Razorbacks just awful in all three phases.
California Golden Bears +2 (-110), 1 unit: Wanted to go big here but Ducks loss brought line down. Golden Bears have tough D and are off bye.
San Jose State Spartans +10 (-110), 1 unit: Rainbow Warriors as a big favorite on the mainland? Yes, please.

10/5/2018 (26-29-2, -8.20)

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5 (-110), 1 unit: Cardinals fell apart last week and now have a short week to prepare for the triple option which they have not faced in over ten years. I don’t see them having any motivation or life and their O is anemic at best.

Utah State Aggies +2 (-110), 1 unit: Cougars living off the huge win over a Wisconsin team that got caught looking ahead. Aggies very close to a similar result when they basically dominated Michigan State and lost late. BYU played a physical Washington team late on Saturday and are now on a short week. Utah State coming off a bye and rested for this rivalry game.