Odds for Mid terms and 2020 presidency

Sportsbook33 · Aug 27, 2018

FiveThirtyEight says Democrats have nearly a 75% chance of winning the House of Representatives. They have a few versions of their forecast which have slightly different odds, but currently have Democrats winnings about 228-230 seats for the House majority. They haven't released anything on the Senate

Beech270 says Republicans will hold on to a majority of the House, 218-217. Interestingly, they still have the Democrats as favorites to take back control of the house in their "Election Odds" section. They have book-style odds on the House, Senate, and 2020 Presidency.

House:

Democrats -115, Republicans -105

Senate:

Republicans -280, Democrats -240

2020 presidency:

Generic democrat -155, Trump +135

Thoughts?

Greenbacks · Aug 27, 2018

And Hillary was -5000 to beat Trump.

Odds mean nothing vitterd.

PatsFan1283 · Aug 27, 2018

2020 is pretty far out. A lot can happen between now and then.

The house seems close.

But I'd feel pretty good laying -280 that the GOP keeps the senate. If I could take that rather than have to pick an actual NFL team to win in survivor week 1, I would. Put it that way.

SheriffJoe · Aug 27, 2018

The line on 2020 presidency is a joke.

The House is a 50/50.

GOP will make gains in the Senate.

Willie99 · Aug 27, 2018

Surprised the odds on the House are so close, they way people are talking you'd think it would be -300 or more for the Democrats

If Trump runs in 2020, he's WINNING, because it probably means things are going strong

Avocado33 · Aug 27, 2018

I think the bet here is Republicans in the Senate. I think they offer line spread as well for that for number of seats

REDEYE · Aug 27, 2018

I would be all over Trump if I could get plus money for 2020 in Vegas.. offshore already have these bets down 1/1/19 -180. , 1/1/20 +345 ..like the +140 for 21 but not willing to make large wager online..

Avocado33 · Aug 28, 2018

RED EYE said:
I would be all over Trump if I could get plus money for 2020 in Vegas.. offshore already have these bets down 1/1/19 -180. , 1/1/20 +345 ..like the +140 for 21 but not willing to make large wager online..

What do those bets signify? +345 for him being president on January 1st, 2020? Is that on beech270.com? That looks like highway robbery

REDEYE · Aug 28, 2018

StanfordSam said:
What do those bets signify? +345 for him being president on January 1st, 2020? Is that on beech270.com? That looks like highway robbery

I bet it in 2017 at Dimes.. collected on the 1st this year too

GardenState · Aug 28, 2018

chump has no nope in 2020

Willie99 · Aug 28, 2018

Surging economy, Obama's one million Syrian refugees set free, securing the boarders, creating jobs, increasing incomes, cutting taxes, cutting regulations, the manufacturing jobs Obama said "are NOT coming back" are coming back, keeping promises, negotiation with NK, shutting up Iran, kicking the Turkish dictator in the ass, tough Russian sanctions...... some people never know the truth

Not sure why people think Americans hate WINNING, not sure why they miss eight years of suck, it's all so damn surreal to me

PS: I actually know why they hate Trump, they're heads are filled with all the hate being sold by the democratic propaganda press; he's racist, his supporters are white supremacists, he wants to separate families, he's sexist, he colluded with the Russians to steal that election he had NO CHANCE to win...., they're just not told any resemblance of a balanced story

Looks like the Bookmakers are a little wiser nowadays

GasMan · Aug 28, 2018

Lol...all the new Rx members headed straight for the poly forum. What a bunch of sickos. I mean, if you get banned just stay the hell away. Sad sad lives these clowns.

RunMaker · Aug 28, 2018

Yes, it is comical. First posts on a sports forum are only in the Political section.

Anyways, 538 has been outed as a joke. They start with a political opinion and then create the math to rationalize it. It would be like the following:

"I like the Browns. Hocus Pocus math now says the Browns have a 2-1 chance to win at Foxboro and beat the Patriots"

By now everyone should know that almost all media is ((controlled)) and that even ((Alex Jones)) was/is a puppet. Every couple of months I'll read 538 comments and listen to their crazy liberal echo chamber comments. It provides good entertainment.

There has to be a historical chart of Trump odds after being elected:

1. Will he be president on Jan 1, 2018. No.... -200, -180, -160, -120, +120, +140, +300..... you get the point

I imagine the odds are doing the same thing for will he be elected in 2020. The odds will keep progressing until Nov 2020 when the odds will be -800 for Trump or something like that.

Acebb · Aug 28, 2018

This was 538's official 2016 election forecast.

Avocado33 · Aug 28, 2018

Putting down $500 on Republicans -3 in the Senate at -110

StevieRay · Aug 28, 2018

GardenState said:
chump has no nope in 2020

Why are u concerned? U live in a shit hole

Willie99 · Aug 28, 2018

StanfordSam said:
Putting down $500 on Republicans -3 in the Senate at -110

Those odds seem horrific for you. Are you betting Republicans lose 3 seats and Democrats take the Senate? Because that's a long shot Or are you saying the Republicans will have at least a three seat majority?

RCP poll averages

Safe seats GOP 46, Dems 37

4 likely, one GOP seat

6 leans, one GOP seat

7 tossups, three of them Republican seats

For the democrats to pick up three seats, they have to sweep the tossups. They're not defeating Cruz in TX, which is the GOP lean

Willie99 · Aug 28, 2018

Furthermore, most of the toss up states are red states, and none of them are blue states (save for maybe NV)

Avocado33 · Aug 28, 2018

Willie99 said:
Those odds seem horrific for you. Are you betting Republicans lose 3 seats and Democrats take the Senate? Because that's a long shot Or are you saying the Republicans will have at least a three seat majority?

RCP poll averages

Safe seats GOP 46, Dems 37

4 likely, one GOP seat

6 leans, one GOP seat

7 tossups, three of them Republican seats

For the democrats to pick up three seats, they have to sweep the tossups. They're not defeating Cruz in TX, which is the GOP lean

Betting on Republicans -3 in this case means I'm betting that the Republicans will have at least 52 seats in the Senate after Election Day.

Willie99 · Aug 28, 2018

StanfordSam said:
Betting on Republicans -3 in this case means I'm betting that the Republicans will have at least 52 seats in the Senate after Election Day.

OK, a pickup of one, I like that bet

Odds for Mid terms and 2020 presidency

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