Title bets, over/under projections for top 25 college football teams
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[/FONT]he 2018 college football season is kicking off, and ESPN Chalk is here with betting previews for the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. College football experts Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin combine to break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds. Our Stats & Information Group also provided a look at ATS records for all 25 teams.
Note: Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 24.
[h=2]1.
Alabama Crimson Tide[/h]
National title odds: 7-4
Season win total: 11.5
FPI win total projection: 10.8
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: If Tua Tagovailoa gets the nod at starting QB, the Crimson Tide still have the best backup in the nation in Jalen Hurts, who owns a 26-2 record as a starter. They have my No. 2 set of running backs, No. 3 offensive line, No. 4 defensive line, No. 1 set of linebackers and No. 8 secondary. Nick Saban has five national titles at Alabama, including two in the past three years.
Weaknesses: Alabama must replace its punter and kicker, and right now the special teams rank outside my top 50. The linebacker depth has taken a hit, as the Tide lost three linebackers prior to the season, and it's unknown if Terrell Lewis will return before season's end.
Over/under: Saban might have five national titles with Alabama, but just one of them came after an undefeated season (2009). It is difficult to go unbeaten in college football, and that is what you need as a bettor to cash this bet. Before you bet the under, however, Alabama will likely be a double-digit favorite in every game this season. I'm passing here.
National title: If the Crimson Tide were 6-1 or even closer to 3-1 (like in previous seasons), there might be value. They deserve to be the favorites, but this isn't a bet worth making for me.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
I'm not in the business of needing a perfect season to cash an over, so I wouldn't be all-in here, though the nice plus price on the over is tempting. You're looking at a 10 percent chance of winning out and at least a 67 percent chance of winning in each game. It's really hard to envision the Tide losing a game, as historically they win games they are supposed to. Are they really going to lose at LSU or home versus Texas A&M or Mississippi State? And you would think that after a loss at Jordan-Hare last year, payback could be, well, you know the phrase.
That's a tough price to win the title, as the only teams that truly match up with Bama are the ones the Tide would likely meet in the SEC Championship and CFB playoff. But it's plus money, and when Alabama makes the College Football Playoff, it will be favored over any other team. If you're holding the Tide at plus money, you will be in a great position.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
How do you view the defending champs this season? Are you the person who thinks it will be too hard for Saban to replace his top six players in the secondary? Or are you the person who thinks he'll just replace those guys with the four- and five-star players who remain on his roster, including true freshmen (most notably the top-ranked incoming cornerback, Patrick Surtain II)?
If Hurts won 11 games last season, why can't the Tide do it again, even if Tua wins the QB job. They return their two most talented RBs in Damien Harris and Najee Harris and plenty of talent at wide receiver, even though they lost Calvin Ridley. They are also really deep at the tight end position and return plenty of experience on the offensive line. I choose to look at it this way: Over the past 10 years, the Crimson Tide have gone 125-14 (including 71-9 in SEC play). Why doubt them? I say over 11.5 wins at plus money.
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| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 6-8 | 3-4 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 6-8 |
| 5-year ATS | 35-35-1 | 16-18-1 | 10-10 | 9-7 | 34-35-1 | 1-0 | 33-36-1 |
| Nick Saban ATS at Alabama | 80-69-3 | 35-39-3 | 27-19 | 18-11 | 75-66-2 | 4-3-1 | 71-78-3 |
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[h=2]2.
Clemson Tigers[/h]
National title odds: 4-1
Season win total: 11
FPI win total projection: 11.4
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: After the 2017 season was over, I thought Clemson <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> would be facing a rebuild on defense, as I expected three defensive linemen to leave early for the NFL draft. Instead, all three returned, and it's possible that all four starters could be first- or second-round picks in the 2019 draft. Plus, there is solid depth. Every offensive and defensive unit for the Tigers ranks in my top 20, they have my No. 9-rated offense, and they own the best defense in college football.
</offer>Weaknesses: Clemson has been No. 100, 96, 66 and 86 in my special-teams rankings the past four years, so this unit is the biggest question on the team.
Over/under: Clemson has some tough road tests this season, with Texas A&M, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Florida State and Boston College, but the Tigers are currently favored in every game. I liked over the total of 9.5 games last season, and that cashed when Clemson won 11. Head coach Dabo Swinney has one undefeated regular season under his belt, but this is a no play for me.
National title: Clemson began last season at 25-1 to win the national title but ended up the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. The odds are much shorter this year, but the Tigers are worth a look. I give Alabama and Clemson about the same odds of winning the title, but the Tigers' odds are much more favorable.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
It will be interesting to see if Trevor Lawrence takes over from Kelly Bryant at QB. Dabo has usually been conservative in giving the upperclassmen a longer leash, but with that defense and Travis Etienne at RB, one would think Clemson can beat 11 teams by simply lining up on the field. If I were betting the over, it would worry me a little bit that the Tigers have suffered a bad loss each of the past two seasons (Pitt, at Syracuse) and have two road games in challenging environments. Those two aforementioned games are the only regular-season games the Tigers have lost the past three seasons.
Clemson is a great bet to reach the playoff at -180 at Westgate, as even with a regular-season loss, the Tigers will be in if they win the ACC. And if you were, in theory, getting them at 4-1 on the moneyline to beat Alabama in the title game, you would take your chances.
[h=3]
Coughlin[/h]
With Clemson reaching the playoff for three straight years and returning 62 lettermen, it's hard for me to find a team that has higher expectations than Dabo's squad. The biggest question to me is who will be at quarterback. Plenty of people think Lawrence has the goods to carry this team to a national title, which makes me think this could be a Jameis Winston 2013 season all over again. We know the names that return on the defensive line, so what is there to question about this squad? Plus, the Tigers don't play Miami or Virginia Tech from the Coastal. Clemson sure feels like the best bet to play in a conference title game and therefore win a conference title. I'll say over.
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Chalk Box: Clemson[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 8-5-1 | 4-2-1 | 3-2 | 1-1 | 8-4-1 | 0-1 | 5-8-1 |
| 5-year ATS | 37-32-1 | 19-15-1 | 10-15 | 8-2 | 28-28-1 | 9-4 | 33-36-1 |
| Dabo Swinney career ATS | 73-61-1 | 36-31-1 | 25-23 | 12-7 | 54-50-1 | 18-11 | 59-73-1 |
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[h=2]3. Ohio State Buckeyes[/h]National title odds: 6-1
Season win total: 10.5
FPI win total projection: 10.4
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: Ohio State has perhaps the best duo of running backs in the country in J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber. Wide receiver Paris Campbell should have a big year now that Dwayne Haskins takes over at quarterback, as Haskins is a much better downfield passer. The Buckeyes have my No. 7-rated offensive line and special teams and No. 2 defensive line. Overall, Ohio State has my No. 2 offense and No. 6 defense, so it's a complete team.
Weaknesses: The Urban Meyer situation has taken this team out of its normal preparation and left it answering plenty of questions. My biggest on-the-field question is at linebacker, but I still have that unit rated No. 21 in the country.
Over/under: This year's total for Ohio State matches last year's, and the Buckeyes were favored in every game but ended up 11-2 in the regular season. This season they have three tough road trips, with TCU (in Arlington), Penn State and Michigan State. I have Ohio State making the playoff, so over would be my preference.
National title: The talent is there. Teams with first-year starting QBs have won five of the past eight national titles.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
Ohio State should be better offensively this season, with Haskins under center and Dobbins at RB. The Buckeyes project to be favored in every game this season but still have two of their toughest three games on the road at Michigan State and Penn State. The personnel losses on defense don't really bother me since Ohio State can recruit with the best of them. Still, these double-digit win totals aren't very appealing to me, as the Buckeyes have three games they could in theory lose (I don't think they are in jeopardy of losing to TCU). I'd lean to the side of over, knowing 10-2 is a possibility.Ohio State is one of three teams I can envision winning the national title. As is the case with Clemson, if you're in the title game versus Alabama and are basically getting the Buckeyes at 6-1, that's not the worst thing. You could also wait and see what happens Sept. 29 at Penn State. If Ohio State loses in that one, you could get a bit better price on them to win it all.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
The question is how valuable J.T. Barrett was to this team. Haskins was impressive when he led the Buckeyes to a win in Ann Arbor last year after entering the game with his team trailing by six. Interim head coach Ryan Day is as good as anyone in the nation coaching QBs, so I think the offense will be fine.
While the defense always has stars at every position, it lost five players to the NFL from the defensive line, and when you add the loss of Denzel Ward, I think the secondary might be a little too green, especially in some road games. I think the Buckeyes will lose at Penn State, and there is another loss out there. I say under 10.5 wins.
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| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 7-7 | 2-5 | 3-2 | 2-0 | 7-7 | 0-0 | 9-5 |
| 5-year ATS | 35-33-1 | 14-20-1 | 14-10 | 7-3 | 31-33-1 | 4-0 | 41-28 |
| Urban Meyer ATS at Ohio State | 42-38-1 | 18-24-1 | 17-11 | 7-3 | 36-38-1 | 6-0 | 47-34 |
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[h=2]4. Georgia Bulldogs[/h]National title odds: 6-1
Season win total: 10.5
FPI win total projection: 10.9
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: QB Jake Fromm was thrown into the fire last season but managed to lead the team to the national title game. The Bulldogs are strong up front, with my No. 2-rated offensive line and dangerous weapons at receiver. The defense will be solid, and I have the special unit rated No. 8 in the country. DeAndre Swift is also a stud at running back.
Weaknesses: While D'Andre Swift will have a big year, he was the No. 3 running back last season behind first- and second-round draft picks, so the unit is not as deep. The defense goes from 10 returning starters to five and loses linebacker Roquan Smith. I had them the No. 4-rated defense in the country last year, and while solid, I have them at No. 15 this year.
Over/under: The Bulldogs had a total of 8.5 last year and crushed it with 11 wins. This year, the expectations are much higher, at 10.5 wins. There are some tough games away from home in South Carolina, LSU and Florida, but Georgia will be favored in all 12 games, so take a small look at the over on this team.
National title: Georgia was one play away from winning the national title last season and gained a lot of confidence. The Bulldogs will be favored in every game and have a very good shot to make the playoff. They are worth a look at 6-1.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
Odds are the Bulldogs will win all seven home games, but road games at Missouri, South Carolina and LSU, along with the Cocktail Party, won't be gimmes, despite Georgia's talent edge. There's no question that the talent is there, but will the QB situation work itself out with Fromm and Justin Fields? Will the loss of players such as Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and Roquan Smith have an impact on team leadership and experience? Odds are UGA is headed toward 11-1, but 10-2 is a possibility.
After the "big three" of Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State, Georgia is the team most likely to win the national title. However, I wouldn't be too invested early on at 6-1, as there could be a chance for a better price should the Dogs stumble, knowing that if they win the SEC, they'll still be in the CFP. They would probably be underdogs in the semis and final, meaning a nice ML parlay could be an option with not as much risk.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
The Bulldogs lost a ton of experience (two of the program's all-time rushers, three guys drafted in the first round and eight starters on defense), so you might be pretty skeptical about them this season -- but this is Georgia and Kirby Smart. Most important to me is they return Fromm, who finished ninth in the country in passing efficiency as a true freshman last season. He also threw for more than 2,600 yards and 24 TDs. I think the schedule overall isn't bad, with a road trip to South Carolina in Week 2, road trip to LSU on Oct. 3 and hosting Auburn on Oct. 10. Georgia will be the more talented team in each of those games. I like the combo of Fromm returning and Smart calling the shots on the other side of the ball. In addition, I think the SEC East is average as a division. I'll say over 10.5 wins.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; font-family: -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Roboto","Arial","Helvetica Neue","Helvetica",sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 18px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 6px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 15px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; width: 565px; word-spacing: 0px;">[h=2]Chalk Box: Georgia[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 11-4 | 3-3 | 4-1 | 4-0 | 9-4 | 2-0 | 7-8 |
| 5-year ATS | 34-32-1 | 14-17-1 | 11-10 | 9-5 | 28-28-1 | 5-4 | 34-33 |
| Kirby Smart career ATS | 17-11 | 5-7 | 6-3 | 6-1 | 12-9 | 5-2 | 13-15 |
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[h=2]5. Washington Huskies[/h]National title odds: 15-1
Season win total: 10
FPI win total projection: 10.6
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: The Huskies have my No. 13-rated offensive line and return 97 career starts. All three units on defense rank in my top 11 nationally, and they have nine starters back from a defense that allowed just 16.1 points per game last season. Running back Myles Gaskin returns and has three straight seasons of more than 1,300 yards rushing. Jake Browning had 43 touchdown passes in 2016 and is a four-year starter with playoff experience.
Weaknesses: The Huskies' special teams were 47th in 2016 and 48th last season and lost Dante Pettis (four punt return TDs in 2017) as well as the kicker. The receiving corps is 45th in the nation in my rankings, and QB Jake Browning had just 19 TD passes last season and must regain 2016's form.
Over/under: The Huskies avoid USC in Pac-12 regular-season play but have to face Auburn, Utah and Oregon on the road. They are currently favored in 11 games, and I have them getting to the playoff, so I will side with the over.
National title: Last year I passed on the Huskies as a 10-1 shot to win the title, but this year I believe they are a stronger team. With the No. 5 defense in the country and my expected rebound by Browning, it's worth taking a shot at 15-1.
<strike></strike>
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
The Huskies have won 11 and 10 games, respectively, the past two seasons. With a slew of returning production, it's hard to envision UW falling under 10 wins, as there seem to be only three spots the team could lose (vs. Auburn in Atlanta, at Oregon and vs. Stanford). But the Huskies managed to suffer a horrible loss at Arizona State last season, and Utah has given them fits, so I guess anything could happen. Still, UW is at a point as a program where 9-3 would be a bad year. To me, 10-2 seems like the worst-case scenario, but 11-1 is also possible.
I'm sure UW will take a bit of money as a trendy Pac-12 champion to win the playoff, but I'd stay away. That Auburn game is huge, and should Washington lose it, it could give the committee reason to leave UW out of the CFP even with a Pac-12 title. Plus, based on how UW has fared in the postseason the past two seasons versus the nonconference big boys, I don't think the Huskies would beat, say, Alabama and Clemson in consecutive weeks to win it all.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
There is so much to like about the Huskies this year. I'm focused on the coach, the QB and the return of Gaskin, who is the guy you hold your breath for every time he touches the ball. The defense welcomes back 10 of its top 14 leaders in tackles, and that's from a unit that ranked in the top five in rushing yards allowed per game and points allowed. Then there is the schedule, including a monster out-of-conference game in Atlanta versus SEC power Auburn in Week 1, which will set the tone for the image of the Pac-12 this season.
The combination of Chris Petersen at head coach and Browning at QB is something that no other team in the country has, and I think it's going to be the reason the Huskies win the Pac-12 and return to the College Football Playoff. I'll take over 10 wins for the boys in Seattle.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: Washington[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 7-6 | 5-2 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 7-5 | 0-1 | 7-6 |
| 5-year ATS | 36-31 | 19-16 | 14-11 | 3-4 | 29-20 | 7-11 | 30-36-1 |
| Chris Petersen ATS at Washington | 22-19 | 10-11 | 10-6 | 2-2 | 17-12 | 5-7 | 17-23-1 |
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[h=2]6.
Wisconsin Badgers[/h]
National title odds: 20-1
Season win total: 10
FPI win total projection: 9.7
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: Wisconsin is strong right where you'd imagine. I have its offensive line rated the best in college football, and running back
Jonathan Taylor had 1,977 rushing yards last season as a true freshman. The defense rates No. 10 in the country in my rankings despite just four returning starters behind my No. 2 set of linebackers and No. 14-rated secondary. The Badgers are also my third-most experienced team in the country.
Weaknesses:
Alex Hornibrook is a serviceable veteran quarterback but did toss 15 interceptions last season. The receiving corps are stronger overall but loses tight end Troy Fumagalli, putting that group at No. 44 in my ratings.
Over/under: I had the Badgers favored in all 12 games heading into the 2017 season, and they beat the 10.5 number with a perfect 12-0 regular season. Now they are a stronger team and go from No. 33 on my experience chart to No. 3. Still, all five road opponents last year had a losing record, while all five this season were in a bowl last winter. Among the five are Iowa, Penn State and Michigan. I have the Badgers right at 10 wins, so no play.
National title: Wisconsin has one of the better shots of playing in the Big Ten title game as the clear favorite in the West. That would put it one win from the playoff. With a top-10 offense and defense, Wisconsin can stand toe-to-toe with the big boys and is clearly worth a look at 20-1.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
When you tell Wisconsin it can't, it usually finds a way to prove you wrong. The Badgers are well coached, play with consistency and have a chip on their shoulder. And after winning 10 games in three of the past four regular seasons, double-digit wins are almost expected. The Badgers are no longer just good because they are in the Big Ten West -- they are legit good. But I see value on the under here, despite it being juiced. I don't think the Badgers win at either Michigan or Penn State, meaning 10-2 is the ceiling. And with a road loss at Iowa, Purdue or Northwestern, you're looking at 9-3. I'm sure they will take money as an alternative to the big national title contenders, but I can't see it.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
It sure feels like everything is in line for the Badgers to crash the College Football Playoff for the first time. They have a big road game at Iowa followed by a home game vs. Nebraska and a trip to Ann Arbor to make up a critical, yet winnable stretch of games. The biggest question to me is how many yards will Taylor rack up in the first three games of the season as the Badgers host Western Kentucky, New Mexico and BYU. It might be a good time to bet Taylor to win the Heisman before the season starts, as his value will probably decrease quickly. Plus, Paul Chryst is as good an in-game coach as there is out there. I say over 10 wins, but I'd also recommend betting 'Sconnie to make the playoff.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: Wisconsin[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 9-5 | 4-3 | 5-1 | 0-1 | 9-4 | 0-1 | 8-6 |
| 5-year ATS | 39-27-2 | 19-14-1 | 17-6-1 | 3-7 | 32-24-1 | 7-3-1 | 32-35-1 |
| Paul Chryst career ATS | 42-34-3 | 20-19-1 | 19-10-2 | 3-5 | 29-25-1 | 13-9-2 | 37-41-1 |
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[h=2]7.
Oklahoma Sooners[/h]
National title odds: 18-1
Season win total: 10
FPI win total projection: 10.5
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: The Sooners' new quarterback is surrounded by talent with my No. 5-rated running backs, No. 4 set of receivers and No. 5-rated offensive line.
Kyler Murray has played in 16 games and his running ability will make the offense difficult to prepare for.
Weaknesses: Baker Mayfield completed 71 percent of his passes and had a 43-6 ratio; Murray will not match those numbers. The defense was average last season, and even with six starters back, it is not among my top 40 defenses this turn around. I also only rate the special teams at No. 43.
Over/under: The Sooners are currently favored in every game this season in Vegas. The total was 10 last season, and they topped that with 11 wins. They do have to face TCU, Texas and West Virginia on the road. Ten is about what I expect for their win total, so I will pass on this one.
National title: The Big 12 is wide open this season with five or six teams having a shot at the title. I think the conference will beat itself up and the winner will not qualify for the playoff. Oklahoma was a rare team that did not have a top 25 defense but still made the playoff in 2017. These are very attractive odds for a team with playoff experience and is favored in every game, but the Sooners are only worth a small play here.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
It seems like you're playing to a push here. I can't see OU falling to 9-3, but 11-1 will be tough with this schedule. Consider the Sooners' recent close calls (and losses) to Texas despite being a better team, as well as OU having lost some games as a huge favorite (see Iowa State). Sure, there will be a bit of a drop-off at QB replacing the Heisman winner, but OU's running game is legit, and even the defense should improve. OU should be favored in every game, and if you had to play a side, I guess I'd lean to the over as it would take three losses from a group of at Iowa State, vs. Texas, at TCU and at West Virginia to lose. As for national title hopes, we've seen OU come up short in the CFP semis to both Clemson and Georgia. Yes, I know the Rose Bowl went to overtime last season and OU easily could have won, but as is the case with most teams, I can't see OU pulling off the Alabama-Clemson double, which is what it will likely take to win it all.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
No one in the country needs to replace more by losing one player than the Sooners in dealing with the post-Mayfield era. When you look at the season ahead for second-year head coach Lincoln Riley, the feeling I get is things will look a lot different on the offensive side of the ball. You can't just replace Mayfield that easily. What he brought to the table as a competitor was special, including how other guys on the team trusted him and how he embraced taking every team's best shot, week in and week out. And it's not like you can rely on the defense. That is a unit that has ranked 68th in the country in scoring defense for two straight years. I think the loss of Mayfield is too much to overcome -- under 10 wins.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: Oklahoma[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 8-6 | 5-1 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 6-5 | 2-1 | 7-6-1 |
| 5-year ATS | 37-29 | 19-11 | 15-9 | 3-9 | 31-26 | 6-3 | 38-27-1 |
| Lincoln Riley career ATS | 8-6 | 5-1 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 6-5 | 2-1 | 7-6-1 |
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[h=2]8.
Penn State Nittany Lions[/h]
National title odds: 25-1
Season win total: 9.5
FPI win total projection: 9.5
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths:
Trace McSorley is my top quarterback Heisman contender this season.
Miles Sanders and
Ricky Slade were both my No. 3-rated running backs in the country out of high school so that position remains strong. But coach James Franklin feels that his offensive line is a strength of the team for the first time in his tenure here. Penn State also has my No. 8 defensive line and No. 20 secondary, and it gets back LB
Manny Bowen who had 21 starts and 119 tackles the past two seasons.
Weaknesses: When I talked to coach Franklin in 2014, Penn State was basically one-deep at every position. Now the lowest-ranked position for me is receiver, where it is No. 33. My biggest question may be at offensive coordinator, as the team loses Joe Moorehead to Mississippi State.
Over/under: Penn State has exactly one road game versus a team that had a winning record last season. It plays both Ohio State and Wisconsin at home, but for the Nittany Lions to go under 9.5, they would probably have to drop all three of those games. I will lean with the over here.
National title: Penn State opened up at 12-1 but has now risen to 25-1 to win it all. With the question marks at Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have a great shot at winning the Big Ten East. Despite losing Saquon Barkley, they should be priced closer to 15-1.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
Penn State has been great at home, and the Nittany Lions get Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin at Beaver Stadium. That's a huge plus. Odds are they will go 2-1 at worst in those three games, and if you factor in a loss at Michigan, that means 10-2 is a very likely outcome. Sure, Barkley and Mike Gesicki are gone, but I think Penn State is confident it can replace a good bit of that production. And I loved how Ricky Rahne called the Fiesta Bowl. I'm bullish on Penn State this year, probably more than most. Title-wise, if you're looking for a price outside of the obvious favorites, this might be the spot to land. If Penn State wins the Big Ten, it means Ohio State will likely be out. And while beating Alabama and Clemson potentially would be a tall order, Penn State has shown it can play with -- and beat -- some big name non-conference opponents in the NY6.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
I believe that Penn State was the best team in the conference the past two seasons, but the committee didn't agree two years ago, and two brutal losses to Sparty and Ohio State make my argument hard to convince those that go by on-the-field results. The one constant in the offense is McSorley (7,369 yards and 59 TDs), who returns but has a new offensive coordinator. Coach Franklin has done a great job in overhauling the talent and versatility of the defense with great recruiting, but I think the Nittany Lions come up short of the season projected total of 9.5.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: Penn State[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 8-5 | 4-3 | 3-2 | 1-0 | 8-5 | 0-0 | 7-6 |
| 5-year ATS | 33-29-3 | 20-13-2 | 8-13-1 | 5-3 | 22-19-3 | 11-9 | 36-29 |
| James Franklin career ATS | 53-37-2 | 30-17-1 | 16-17-1 | 7-3 | 33-23-2 | 20-14 | 51-40-1 |
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[h=2]9.
Miami Hurricanes[/h]
National title odds: 30-1
Season win total: 9.5
FPI win total projection: 9.6
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: The Hurricanes have my No. 14-rated defensive line, No. 7 set of linebackers and No. 9 secondary, so naturally have a top-10 defense.
Malik Rosier was a first-time starting quarterback last season and will be pushed by talented redshirt freshman
N'Kosi Perry. And the offensive line, running backs and receivers all rank in my top 25.
Weaknesses: While Rosier is now a veteran, he was just No. 9 in the ACC in pass efficiency and led the ACC with 14 interceptions in 2017. Miami was also just No. 74 in my special team rankings last year and loses the unit's two best players in kicker Michael Badgley and punt returner Braxton Berrios.
Over/under: I have called for the over for Miami the past two seasons; last year the total was nine and the team opened 10-0. I rate the Hurricanes' schedule at a very manageable No. 57, and they are currently favored in every game. I clearly like the over here.
National title: While Miami does have to face Florida State during the regular season, it is my favorite to win the Coastal to put it in the ACC title game and one step from making the playoff. I feel the Canes should be priced closer to 20-1, so there is value here.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
FPI projects Miami to be a favorite in every game this season. It's very fair to expect bigger things from the Canes on the heels of their first appearance in the ACC Championship Game, and it sure does look like Miami only has three losable games (LSU, FSU and at Virginia Tech). But as we saw last year, the Canes had a knack of just pulling out some games that they easily could have lost. Maybe with experience, those games will be limited this season, but that Friday night game at Boston College sure looks like an upset trap. In order for Mark Richt's team to get to where it wants to be, it has to have better quarterback play, whether it is from Rosier, Perry or
Jarren Williams.
Miami has the talent and schedule to go 10-2, but go in knowing 9-3 is also an option, albeit a disappointing one, should Miami lose the opener to LSU. As we saw in the ACC Championship, Miami has a ways to go to get to Clemson in the ACC, making it worth a play to win the national title ... in 2019.
<strike></strike>
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
Miami and Auburn probably had more negative things said about them than any other team in the top 10 of preseason polls, simply because too much is made of bowl game losses. The negativity comes only from the three straight losses to end the season, following 10 straight wins. A lot of the blame has been pointed at Rosier, who threw five picks and completed less than 50 percent of his passes in each of those losses. But the Canes do have the benefit of avoiding Clemson on the cross schedule and have the best trio of linebackers in the country, led by Shaq Quarterman. The team has the talent to win double-digit games. I just feel like there are some tricky games, like LSU in Arlington to start the year and a Friday night trip to Chestnut Hill in October. I see the Hurricanes having a successful year yet winning nine games, so I take the under.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; font-family: -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Roboto","Arial","Helvetica Neue","Helvetica",sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 18px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 6px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 15px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; width: 565px; word-spacing: 0px;">[h=2]Chalk Box: Miami[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 5-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 3-10 |
| 5-year ATS | 31-34 | 17-17 | 13-13 | 1-4 | 25-21 | 6-13 | 26-39 |
| Mark Richt ATS since 2003 | 86-95-3 | 41-49-1 | 30-30-1 | 15-16-1 | 72-76-3 | 14-19 | 89-94-1 |
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[h=2]10.
Auburn Tigers[/h]
National title odds: 20-1
Season win total: 9
FPI win total projection: 9.1
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: Jarrett Stidham is one of the top quarterbacks in the country, now has experience and will be throwing to my No. 9 set of receivers. The defense will contend for top honors in the SEC as it features my No. 5 defensive line, No. 15 linebackers and No. 21 secondary.
Weaknesses: Auburn lost 113 career starts off the offensive line and struggled to run the ball without Kerryon Johnson late last season (Johnson is now gone to the NFL). The Tigers were No. 72 in my special team rankings last season and must replace their All-American caliber kicker. Overall, they go from No. 17 on my experience chart in 2017 to just No. 70 now.
Over/under: This is the same total as last season, and despite road trips to Clemson and LSU, Auburn managed to get 10 regular-season wins with that upset win at home against Alabama in the Iron Bowl. This season, it has to face Alabama, Georgia, Washington and Mississippi State. I will lean with the under.
National title: Last year I said if a team in the SEC West was going to beat Alabama, it would be Auburn -- and it hosted the Iron Bowl and did just that. To get to the playoff this season, it would have to beat the Crimson Tide on the road with Alabama playing for revenge. Auburn would also have to knock off at least one of the two other top-six teams on the schedule. I would look elsewhere for value.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
Stidham is back, as is most of what should be a pretty salty defense. I'm assuming the Tigers will lose at Alabama and Georgia, meaning they will have to run the table vs. Washington, vs. LSU, at Mississippi State, vs. Texas A&M and at Ole Miss to hit 10 victories. A 9-3 outcome is Auburn's most likely record. Auburn won 10 games last year, and the Tigers have never posted consecutive seasons with 10 regular-season wins, and the last time Auburn posted consecutive regular seasons with at least nine wins was 2005-2006.
I'll pass on the national title odds. Sure, Auburn beat both teams which played for the national title at Jordan-Hare last season, but this is 2018. Those games are on the road this time around, and Auburn will have to beat Washington and win in Tuscaloosa and then likely beat Georgia for a shot at the CFP.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
Is there a team that comes into the season with less "fake momentum" than Auburn? By that I mean, the way you ended your season, which in this case is losing in a bowl. A couple of things to point out about the way the Tigers ended their season: They were in brutal situations in their final two games, they had to play Georgia again after rolling them a couple of weeks prior and then the Peach Bowl was UCF's Super Bowl. Stidham (66 percent completion rate, 3,158 passing yards and 18 touchdowns) returns as do plenty of war dogs from that defense. Coach Gus Malzahn might not have a 1,000-yard rusher with the lack of returning starters on the offensive line, but I believe in him and how he goes about developing players. His offense always feeds the best players. I say over nine wins, and worst case, you push.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; font-family: -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Roboto","Arial","Helvetica Neue","Helvetica",sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 18px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 6px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 15px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; width: 565px; word-spacing: 0px;">[h=2]Chalk Box: Auburn[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 5-8-1 | 3-4 | 2-2-1 | 0-2 | 3-6-1 | 2-2 | 7-7 |
| 5-year ATS | 35-31-1 | 19-17-1 | 13-9 | 3-5 | 21-21-1 | 14-8 | 30-35-2 |
| Gus Malzahn career ATS | 43-35-1 | 24-18-1 | 16-12 | 3-5 | 27-23-1 | 16-10 | 36-40-2 |
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[h=2]11.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish[/h]
National title odds: 30-1
Season win total: 9
FPI win total projection: 9.9
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: The Irish have nine returning starters on defense and, despite the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Elko, I still have them as a top 15 defense this year. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush is a dangerous runner who has improved his passing skills. I rate the Fighting Irish's offensive line No. 8 in the country.
Weaknesses: Notre Dame has been just No. 108 and No. 83 in my special teams rankings the past two years. While I like the talent at both running back and wide receiver, the Fighting Irish are inexperienced after losing their top two rushers and three of their top five receivers.
Over/under: The Fighting Irish had an over/under win total of 7.5 and went from four wins in 2016 to nine in 2017. This year the total is nine, and while the schedule is not easy, I have them favored in all four road games -- all against teams that made a bowl last season. The toughest three games are Michigan, Stanford and Florida State, and they get all three at home. I like the over here.
National title: The Irish are my No. 1 surprise team this year, which is a non-top 10 team that has a shot at winning the national title. Last year the Irish were No. 3 in the country and favored at Miami, but they lost two of the last four games and fell off the radar. FPI agrees with me and gives the Irish a 42 percent chance of getting to the playoff.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
The Irish are typically a polarizing team, and this year is no different. Notre Dame has home games with Michigan and Stanford and travels to Virginia Tech, Northwestern and USC. That is, in theory, five games Notre Dame could lose and it would just need to lose four to go under the nine.
There's a lot of upside, but also a lot of questions about this team. The Irish lose two offensive linemen taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft, running back Josh Adams, two of their top three wide receivers and defensive coordinator Mike Elko. If I had to play this, I'd say the Fighting Irish manage to go 9-3. They have one of the wider ranges of outcomes of any team in the country. I do know the last time Notre Dame won nine games in consecutive regular seasons was 2005-2006, and the last three times it posted a 10-win season, it won four, eight and three regular season games the following year. It's been 30 years since Notre Dame last won the national title. Odds are that drought will reach 31.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
Does anyone remember that Notre Dame was No. 3 in the country last year ... in the final month of the season? It also won its bowl game and finished 10-3. This was off an awful season where coach Brian Kelly made changes and hired new coordinators and more new assistants. So why does it feel like his seat is hot? I don't get it.
The Irish return Wimbush, who rushed for over 800 yards and 14 touchdowns last year. Yes, Wimbush struggled late in the season, but that usually that happens to first-year starters. And let's be honest. The two losses late were to pretty good programs on the road.
The schedule is all over the place and they only have one home game in October and one in November. They also have to replace running back Adams and his 3,201 career rushing yards. But I think the Irish have recruited very well and should be able to rely on their defense and studs like linebacker Drue Tranquill (10 TFL last year) and defensive tackle Jerry Tillery (4.5 sacks and 11 hurries last year). Even if they lose the opener at home, which I don't see happening, they can run the table. I feel very confident in over nine wins in South Bend this year.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; font-family: -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Roboto","Arial","Helvetica Neue","Helvetica",sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 18px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 6px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 15px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; width: 565px; word-spacing: 0px;">[h=2]Chalk Box: Notre Dame[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 8-5 | 4-3 | 3-2 | 1-0 | 7-5 | 1-0 | 6-7 |
| 5-year ATS | 31-32-1 | 16-14-1 | 9-13 | 6-5 | 21-25-1 | 9-7 | 32-32 |
| Brian Kelly ATS at ND | 49-51-3 | 23-25-3 | 16-18 | 10-8 | 33-40-3 | 15-11 | 43-59-1 |
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[h=2]12.
Michigan Wolverines[/h]
National title odds: 10-1
Season win total: 9.5
FPI win total projection: 8.4
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: Michigan had one returning starter on defense last year and Don Brown still crafted a unit that allowed just 271 yards per game. This year he has nine starters back and loses just two of the top 16 tacklers. Michigan also has my No. 16-rated special teams and has a deep stable of running backs, which I rate No. 14 overall.
Weaknesses: The offense has potential, as I like the addition of quarterback Shea Patterson, but how will he fit into the offense? The wide receivers and offensive line have potential, but need to show it on the field.
Over/under: The schedule is rugged. Last year I went with under nine wins. This year there are six games where I have the line at under a touchdown. They play at Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State. The slate features tough home games versus Wisconsin and Penn State. The Wolverines have the talent to play with all of these teams. I give the slightest lean to the under as they need to win 10.
National title: While the talent is there, the offense needs to show improvement over last year and the Wolverines face the third-toughest schedule in the country. Jim Harbaugh has yet to finish better than third place in the Big Ten East, and they would have to beat Wisconsin a second time in the Big Ten title game to make the playoff. I will pass on this one as odds are surprisingly short.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
This is a tough number. Assume Michigan loses in Columbus and splits road games at Notre Dame and Michigan State. That means the Wolverines have to beat Penn State and Wisconsin in Ann Arbor to hit 10 wins. They certainly can, but at 9.5 this is a total no play for me. We don't know for sure what we're getting in Patterson. and as highly touted as he is, he has still played just 10 games, posted a 57 QBR and has four games with at least two interceptions. In eight games vs. Power 5 opposition, he's thrown 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Will the offensive line be better? Will the running back make a step forward? Same for the wide receivers, especially with Tarik Black out with a foot injury. The defense should be great, as Khaleke Hudson, Devin Bush, Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich are fantastic players. But with that schedule, would 9-3 really surprise anyone?
Michigan has the upside to be a national championship contender. And it better reach that upside very quickly with an opener in South Bend. Get through that and Michigan should be 6-0 entering a tough three-game stretch with Wisconsin, at Michigan State and Penn State and (with an idle week prior to the Penn State game). I could talk myself into Michigan at like 12-1 as one of the few teams outside of Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State that could win the title, especially if I was holding Alabama or Clemson tickets.
<strike></strike>
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
Is this the year it all turns positive for Harbaugh in Ann Arbor? One thing is for sure, you will see a totally different offense with the Ole Miss transfer Patterson at quarterback. The other concern is the offensive line, as they gave up almost three sacks a game last year. To me, new offensive line coach Ed Warinner is the biggest acquisition, seeing how he has the most work to do. The defense is absolutely filthy and will travel really well, facing road tests at Notre Dame, Michigan State and of course Ohio State. When you try to forecast the season, you have to still question how consistent the offense will be. The expectations are as high as anyone, but I believe the Wolverines can have a successful season and win nine games. I say under 9.5 wins.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: Michigan[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 5-7-1 | 2-4 | 2-2-1 | 1-1 | 4-5-1 | 1-2 | 7-6 |
| 5-year ATS | 30-33-1 | 18-17 | 10-13-1 | 2-3 | 23-25-1 | 7-8 | 35-28-1 |
| Jim Harbaugh career ATS | 46-41-2 | 24-23 | 18-16-2 | 4-2 | 30-25-1 | 16-16 | 51-38 |
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[h=2]13.
Michigan State Spartans[/h]
National title odds: 30-1
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 9.6
Strengths: Michigan State's defense last year had just four starters back, but it allowed only 298 yards per game. This year nine starters are back on defense and all three units rank in my top 22.
Brian Lewerke is a veteran quarterback who is both a dangerous runner and passer.
LJ Scott is a potential 1,000-yard rusher and the receiving corps is solid.
Weaknesses: While the Spartans have four returning starters on the offensive line this year, they were not overwhelming last year and lose their top player in center Brian Allen. The special teams were just No. 67 last year and look to be average again this year.
Over/under: This number surprised me. Michigan State faces just one team on the road that had a winning record last year: Penn State. The Spartans host both Ohio State and Michigan and have won eight of the last 10 games versus the Wolverines. Even if they drop all three of those games, they will be favored in all others. The over is the clear play here.
National title: The last time Michigan State got into the playoff in 2015, it was destroyed 38-0 by Alabama, but this is a stronger team. Last season's Michigan State roster was dead last on my experience chart and this year, with 19 returning starters and 39 of the top 44 back, the Spartans jump up to No. 13. I consider five teams from the Big Ten as title contenders, and Michigan State has the best odds at 30-1.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
No team in the country has more returning production than the Spartans. My guess is the bandwagon is going to be overloaded as a result. But even at 8.5 with some juice to the over, let's play worst-case scenario. Say the Spartans lose in all three of their rivalry games -- and the Michigan and Ohio State games are at home in East Lansing -- Michigan State would still need to be upset to fall to eight wins.
There could be a couple of tricky spots -- Northwestern prior to the trip to State College, Purdue the week before hosting Michigan and then a potential letdown game in Lincoln, Nebraska the week after facing Ohio State. The Spartans also go to Arizona State and Indiana. Sure, they won a lot of close games and there could be some regression in that sense, but I'm sure most would be surprised -- and disappointed -- to see the Spartans finish 8-4.
The Spartans have their work cut out for them to reach Indianapolis, though they could get there. But how many losses will they have? Could the Big Ten East beat each other up and would the CFP committee take a two-loss Big Ten champ? They passed on one each of the last two years. I'm not on board with 30-1.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
It feels like no one mentions Sparty when the topic of possible Big Ten champions for this season is discussed. We know they play in the toughest division in the sport, but they do have the most favorable of schedules of the teams in their division, as they avoid Wisconsin in a crossover game and get Ohio State and Michigan to come to East Lansing. Plus, no one in the conference returns more starters than the Green and White, as coach Mark Dantonio welcomes back 19 starters, led by Scott and quarterback Lewerke, who became the first signal-caller in school history to throw for more than 2,500 yards and rush for more than 200 (actually rushed for 559 yards). After winning five games by eight or fewer points last year, they showed they have the fortitude to win close games. Double-digit wins is for sure possible to me, so I will say over 8.5 wins.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: Michigan State[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 8-5 | 5-2 | 2-3 | 1-0 | 6-3 | 2-2 | 6-7 |
| 5-year ATS | 35-29-2 | 19-16 | 12-12-1 | 4-1-1 | 24-24-1 | 11-5-1 | 33-33 |
| Mark Dantonio ATS at MSU | 76-65-3 | 36-39 | 31-21-2 | 9-5-1 | 49-49-2 | 27-16-1 | 71-72-1 |
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[h=2]14.
Stanford Cardinal[/h]
National title odds: 60-1
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 8.4
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: Let us start with the obvious: running back
Bryce Love, who rushed for 2,118 yards and 8.1 yards per carry despite playing on basically one leg the second half of the year, is back. Stanford has 94 career starts back on a star-studded offensive line that I rate No. 4 in the country. I rate the linebackers as the fourth-best overall unit at that position. Stanford also has my No. 2-rated special-teams unit.
Weaknesses: The defensive line has talent but it is inexperienced and thin. Quarterback
K.J. Costello missed all of spring and may take a few games to get back to 100 percent. Despite all that, the Cardinal overall are a pretty complete team.
Over/under: I have Stanford as an underdog at Notre Dame and at Washington. I rate the Oregon game a toss-up and have them favored in nine. I would lean with the over.
National title: After the poor bowl performances last season, the Pac-12 is not highly thought of. The chances of a one-loss Pac-12 team making the playoff is slim and I expect them to lose at Notre Dame and Washington. I expected the odds closer to 30-1, so at 60-1 they are worth a small play.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
FPI has the Cardinal underdogs in just two games -- at Notre Dame and at Washington -- two teams they beat in Palo Alto last year. Stanford has won fewer than nine regular-season games just once since 2010, so this program typically doesn't fall flat for a season. Costello, Love and nearly the entire offense are back, but the defense will need to get better. While FPI projects Stanford a dog in just two games, road games at Oregon and Cal could be tricky. You look at the slate and say no way they are better than 8-4, but the Cardinal have found a way to reach nine nearly every year this decade and I'll trust they do again. Stanford could win the Pac-12, but it potentially could be a 10-3 Pac-12 champ. And despite the tough schedule, there is little chance the committee would put a three-loss team in the playoff.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
It is silly to think Love will have a year statistically again like he did last year. I said the same thing after Christian McCaffrey returned for the 2016 season after he should have won the Heisman Trophy in 2015. How much will the Stanford offense improve as a whole? That's hard to project. Even though the Cardinal return their top two receivers, they still lack guys that can consistently separate from defensive backs in the pass game. When you play road games in places like Eugene and South Bend (back-to-back weeks) and Seattle, you need guys to get open and keep the pressure off of the run game. I'm just not sure Stanford has those tools. Defensively, it was not a great year last year and they lost four of their best five players on that unit.
What worries me most about this season is the schedule, which includes three of four games in November on the road to end the season. I say under 8.5 wins.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: Stanford[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 7-6-1 | 4-2 | 0-4-1 | 3-0 | 3-5-1 | 4-1 | 7-7 |
| 5-year ATS | 38-29-1 | 19-13 | 13-14-1 | 6-2 | 29-26-1 | 9-3 | 28-39 |
| David Shaw career ATS | 58-36-1 | 27-19 | 23-15-1 | 8-2 | 45-33-1 | 13-3 | 40-54 |
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[h=2]15.
Virginia Tech Hokies[/h]
National title odds: 80-1
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 8.1
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: The Hokies have my No. 16-rated defensive line, a veteran quarterback and a solid special-teams unit. They do return seven starters from an offense that averaged 413 yards per game a season ago. Defensive coordinator Bud Foster typically produces a solid defense here as well.
Weaknesses: The offense has experience, but is lacking a number of go-to-guys at running back and wide receiver. Quarterback
Josh Jackson produced just a 3-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio his last five games of 2017. The defense lost 11 of their top 19 tacklers and has just six upperclassmen in the three deep, so that unit is quite young.
Over/under: Last year the total was 8.5 and I sided with the over, and the Hokies got to nine wins. This year the total is again 8.5, but I have the Hokies as an underdog in four games and rate three more games as toss-ups, so I will side with the under.
National title: This team has a young defense and while the offense has some talent, it is not a great offense. There are a lot of question marks on the schedule as well for the Hokies. I will pass on this one.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
The Hokies basically lost to -- and beat -- the teams they should have last year. If that holds true this year, it puts Virginia Tech on track for a 9-3 mark. Still, there are five games which could pin a potential fourth loss on the Hokies (at Duke, at North Carolina, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Boston College and at Pittsburgh). Clemson does rotate off the schedule, so that's good. Given the losses on defense and the departure of
Cam Phillips, along with some other suspensions and dismissals, this could be the type of year where Virginia Tech slips to 8-4 and takes a big step forward next year.
While things could break right for the Hokies and they could win the Coastal, they aren't beating Clemson and will not reach the College Football Playoff.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
I usually like the recipe of returning quarterback and returning head coach. In the case of the Hokies, I just feel like there are too many other unknowns on the roster and on the schedule, when you try and predict wins. Jackson is back at quarterback after starting all 13 games and throwing 20 touchdowns. But gone is do-everything wide receiver Cam Phillips, who almost doubled the next-highest pass-catching wide receiver last year.
The running backs at Virginia Tech used to have two guys every year who seemed to rush around 1,000 yards. Then I read this offseason that coach Justin Fuente has not had a 1,000-yard rusher in his six years as a head man. They also have been depleted on the back half of their defense, due to graduation, suspensions and injuries. It just feels like an 8-4 season, and next year is the season to watch out for the boys from Blacksburg. And good luck if you have a feel as to what will happen Week 1 in Tallahassee against Florida State. I say under 8.5 wins this year.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: Virginia Tech[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 7-6 | 3-3 | 2-3 | 2-0 | 6-4 | 1-2 | 3-9-1 |
| 5-year ATS | 30-35-1 | 14-16-1 | 12-14 | 4-5 | 20-26-1 | 10-9 | 27-36-2 |
| Justin Fuente career ATS | 41-34-2 | 20-17 | 16-13-2 | 5-4 | 26-22-1 | 15-12-1 | 36-39 |
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[h=2]16.
USC Trojans[/h]
National title odds: 40-1
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 8.4
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: USC will contend with Washington for best defense in the Pac-12, and the Trojans have my No. 3 set of linebackers and No. 3 secondary. The Trojans also have my No. 9-rated offensive line and No. 6 set of receivers.
Weaknesses: The Trojans go from first-round draft pick Sam Darnold to a quarterback unit filled with inexperience. USC also loses running back Ronald Jones, who rushed for 1,550 yards and 19 touchdowns in 2017. Two of the top three receivers from last season depart as well, including Deontay Burnett, who had 86 catches for 1,114 yards and nine touchdowns. There will be growing pains on the offense, and USC is also just No. 106 on my experience chart overall.
Over/under: Last year USC was priced at 10.5 wins and came close at 10-2 in the regular season. Star linebacker
Porter Gustin was injured earlier in August and could miss both the Stanford and Texas road games in September. With a young quarterback facing tough defenses on the road, I have USC as an underdog in both. The Trojans also face Arizona and Utah on the road and have Notre Dame at home. I can see them still winning the Pac-12 South with two conference losses and will lean with the under.
National title: USC was 7-1 to win the title last year and now jumps to 40-1. The Trojans have the athletes to get there, but I question the experience level as well as the schedule. I feel they are accurately priced, so no play here.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
There's a good chance USC opens 1-2, just like it did in its Rose Bowl-winning season of 2016. The question is: Can the Trojans go on a similar run if that happens, and will highly touted freshman
JT Daniels be the spark at QB like Darnold was in 2016? But at 8.5, even if they do open 1-2, it allows for one more loss. With the Pac-12 South in transition, the presence of RB
Stephen Carr, the likelihood of a good defense and no Oregon or Washington on the schedule from the North, there's a good chance USC does hit that nine-win mark.
I can't see USC winning the national title this season, but if you feel obligated to take a shot, wait and see if the Trojans fall to 1-2 and play them then. Maybe a two-loss Trojans team with a victory over an undefeated Washington could sneak into the playoff.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
Fallica made a great point on our podcast about what to make of USC fans this offseason, as they seem upset at Clay Helton after the guy has led them to a Rose Bowl and a conference title in back-to-back seasons. What's wrong with that? Are they just jealous that UCLA has a bigger-name head coach now? When you look at the coming season for the Men of Troy, we are gonna find out fast what this team is made of. After opening up vs. UNLV, the Trojans go to Stanford, go to Austin, play Wazzu (which beat them last season) and then go to Tucson in what could be a huge division game. They do avoid Oregon and Washington in crossover games.
But is this schedule doable with USC starting the true freshman quarterback Daniels? Is there enough talent on the defense to rely on the unit in crucial spots that early in the season? I'm just not sure. I can see the Trojans having four losses when they host Arizona State on Oct. 27, so I'll say under 8.5 wins
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: USC[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 3-10-1 | 2-5 | 1-3-1 | 0-2 | 3-8-1 | 0-2 | 8-6 |
| 5-year ATS | 31-36-1 | 19-14 | 11-15-1 | 1-7 | 26-24-1 | 5-12 | 28-38-2 |
| Clay Helton career ATS | 15-21-1 | 9-7 | 5-8-1 | 1-6 | 14-13-1 | 1-8 | 16-19-2 |
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[h=2]17.
Mississippi State Bulldogs[/h]
National title odds: 80-1
Season win total: 8
FPI win total projection: 8.4
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: The Bulldogs have my No. 3-rated defensive line in the country and also have two capable quarterbacks, led by three-year starter
Nick Fitzgerald. They have a 1,000-yard rusher in
Aeris Williams, who will be running behind a veteran offensive line that returns four starters. I also rate the Bulldogs' secondary as No. 18 in the country.
Weaknesses: Joe Moorhead is a first-year head coach who has to learn his players' strengths and weaknesses. Those players, in turn, have to learn new schemes. Last season's top receiver for the Bulldogs had just 272 yards receiving. They lose punter Logan Cooke, who had a 39.2-yard net a season ago, so special teams are only No. 51 in my rankings this season.
Over/under: I have Mississippi State as an underdog on the road versus LSU and Alabama, but the Bulldogs did crush LSU 37-7 last season in Starkville. I have two toss-up games, at Kansas State and home against Auburn. I like the over.
National title: Mississippi State came close to upsetting Alabama last season and is the fifth-most experienced team in the country. The Bulldogs get Auburn at home and are an upset of Alabama away from playing in the SEC title game. I would have put the odds at 25-1, as they have one of the nation's best defensive lines and a solid quarterback. Mississippi State is clearly worth a wager.
<strike></strike>
<strike></strike><strike></strike><strike></strike><strike></strike>[h=3]Fallica[/h]
The Mississippi State bandwagon is full this season and for good reason. Moorhead's offense will be fun to watch with, one hopes, a healthy Fitzgerald under center. There aren't many teams in the country that have as much returning production as the Bulldogs. Montez Sweat and Jeffery Simmons are stars on defense. Mississippi State could be favored in as many as 10 games this season. Eight wins feels like the right number, although I think nine is more likely than seven.
As exciting a proposition as the Bulldogs could be this season, Mississippi State isn't winning the national championship.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
If you have read my stuff in prior years or listened to the Behind the Bets podcast, you know that I love Moorhead. And if you have been under a rock for the past eight months, Moorhead is now Mississippi State's head coach. I go back to Moorhead's days with schools like UConn and Fordham when I talk about following him. The biggest thing I think about when it comes to the Bulldogs this season is how Fitzgerald will perform in this system, because it expects the QB to throw more and be more accurate than the previous Dan Mullen style. Now, Fitzgerald ran for more than 2,300 yards and 30 TDs the past two seasons, but his completion percentage was only just over 55 percent, which is a bit of a concern.
Knowing Moorhead, though, I am sure Fitzgerald will continue to develop as a passer, especially because of the guys he will be throwing to, led by Jesse Jackson, the leading pass-catcher in 2017. The defense will be led by its fifth different defensive coordinator in five seasons. I'm confident the boys in Starkville can win a couple high-scoring games. I say over eight wins.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; font-family: -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Roboto","Arial","Helvetica Neue","Helvetica",sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 18px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 6px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 15px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; width: 565px; word-spacing: 0px;">[h=2]Chalk Box: Mississippi State[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 8-5 | 5-2 | 2-3 | 1-0 | 5-3 | 3-2 | 3-10 |
| 5-year ATS | 36-29 | 19-15 | 13-11 | 4-3 | 19-18 | 16-11 | 27-38 |
| Joe Moorhead career ATS | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
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[h=2]18.
Florida State Seminoles[/h]
National title odds: 40-1
Season win total: 8
FPI win total projection: 7.3
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: When I talked to coach Willie Taggart this spring, he liked the talent he was inheriting at Florida State. The Seminoles are the only team in the country that returns two full-time starters at quarterback. They have my No. 6 set of running backs in the country as well as my No. 7-rated defensive line and No. 13 secondary. Florida State is a complete team.
Weaknesses: The Seminoles lose their top three linebackers from 2017. The offensive line has been a weakness the past few seasons but could be a strength in 2018. They do have a first-year head coach and are only No. 71 on my experience chart.
Over/under: This is one of my favorite plays, because last season Florida State went just 6-6 after losing its quarterback in the opener. Upon close inspection, the Seminoles were better than the record at plus-6.2 points per game, as they had last-second losses to both Miami and Louisville. I expect them to be a much more confident team and get to 5-0 before they face Miami on the road Oct. 6. I have them as an underdog in only three games, so play the over.
National title: Florida State gets Clemson at home and played the Tigers tough last season. Florida State is one of only nine teams that rank among my top units in all eight position categories, and six are in the top 15. Normally the odds on Florida State are less than 5-1, so the Seminoles are worth a look. This will be the only time this decade they are above 20-1.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
I'm sure many people immediately saw the number at eight and were like, "No way Florida State doesn't win at least eight games." Then you take a look at the schedule and see that the Seminoles will be underdogs at Miami, at Notre Dame and vs. Clemson. Could they lose two more from among vs. Virginia Tech, vs. Florida, at NC State, at Louisville and vs. Boston College? There's a lot of youth on defense and unproven yet highly regarded talent at receiver after Noonie Murray. My hunch is FSU has more than enough talent to win at least eight, but that's a lot of juice to the over to have to lay.
I can't see FSU getting to the ACC title game being in Clemson's division, but if it all comes together, the Seminoles could prove to have the talent of a New Year's Six-type team. If you want to take a small flier, I wouldn't stop you.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
Here lies the biggest wild card in all of college football. What to make of the Seminoles? I have no idea. I look at the schedule and see them end with five losable games (Clemson, at NC State, at Notre Dame, Boston College, Florida). And that's after trips to the Carrier Dome, Louisville and Miami, all before Oct. 6. On the positive side, I see an offense that could be really good, and I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on sophomore running back Cam Akers to win the Heisman Trophy (currently around 25-1). I think he can be lethal in the Willie Taggart system.
You would think the fan base expects the new head coach to win nine-plus games, but I get the feeling the Seminoles lost a lot more than people realize, as they saw seven players drafted and almost all those players left early. I think the schedule is too daunting. I say under eight wins.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; font-family: -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Roboto","Arial","Helvetica Neue","Helvetica",sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 18px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 6px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 15px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; width: 565px; word-spacing: 0px;">[h=2]Chalk Box: Florida State[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 3-8-1 | 1-4 | 1-3-1 | 1-1 | 3-5-1 | 0-3 | 4-8-1 |
| 5-year ATS | 34-30-2 | 17-15 | 13-9-2 | 4-6 | 30-25-2 | 4-5 | 31-34-1 |
| Willie Taggart career ATS | 57-38-1 | 27-23 | 27-13-1 | 3-2 | 22-19 | 35-19-1 | 47-49-1 |
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[h=2]19.
Boise State Broncos[/h]
National title odds: 200-1
Season win total: 10
FPI win total projection: 10.0
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: Brett Rypien is a rare fourth-year starter and has 9,873 career yards passing with 60 touchdowns and just 22 interceptions. Running back Alexander Mattison had 1,086 yards rushing in 2017. Boise has my No. 16-rated defensive line in the country, my No. 37 secondary and No. 18 special teams. Boise is also 58-5 at home in the past decade.
Weaknesses: Two of the top three receivers are gone. Last season the offensive line had just 40 career starts and went through five different starting lineups due to injury; the rush numbers were the weakest at Boise in over 20 years. The Broncos have 49 career starts back and need to stay healthy.
Over/under: I have Boise as a touchdown favorite in 11 games. The Broncos could even steal the Oklahoma State road game, as it is early in the season and the Cowboys are just No. 119 on my experience chart. I like the over here and would not be surprised at a 12-0 finish.
National title: I can see the committee being more sensitive to a 12-0 Group of 5 team in 2018 after UCF's victory in the Sugar Bowl against Auburn last season. If the Broncos go 12-0 and they dominate their foes and Oklahoma State wins the Big 12, then there is a chance. Put $10 on the Broncos and you get back $2,000 if that miracle happens.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
Even if the Broncos lose at Oklahoma State, they would need to lose twice to go under 10. Where could that happen? At Troy? At Wyoming? Both San Diego State and Fresno State visit Boise. With Rypien and Mattison back on offense, along with nearly the entire defense, Boise State is the clear front-runner for the Group of 5's spot in the New Year's Six, and I have a tough time seeing the Broncos winning fewer than 10 games.
Boise might make the New Year's Six, but the Broncos aren't winning the national title.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
Not sure there is a team on a level higher than every other team in its league quite like Boise State this season. Rypien has been heard saying that a New Year's Six bowl is the goal. But can the "Blue Broncos" get there with a loss? Do they have to run the table and go undefeated like UCF did last season? Rypien played great to end 2017 as Boise State won 10 of its final 11 games, which included a conference title and a bowl victory over heavily favored Oregon. The Broncos have won 42 games under head coach Bryan Harsin. They do have three intriguing road games in September (Troy on Sept. 1, Oklahoma State on Sept. 15 and Wyoming on Sept. 29). Plenty of people think they will be the top-ranked Group of 5 school this season, I'm just not sure they win double-digit games. I say under 10 wins.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: Boise State[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 8-5-1 | 2-4-1 | 5-1 | 1-0 | 5-5-1 | 3-0 | 6-8 |
| 5-year ATS | 33-34 | 12-20 | 18-11 | 3-3 | 27-30 | 6-4 | 35-32 |
| Bryan Harsin career ATS | 33-33 | 12-20 | 18-11 | 3-2 | 25-29 | 8-3 | 33-32 |
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</tbody>
</aside>
[h=2]20.
West Virginia Mountaineers[/h]
National title odds: 60-1
Season win total: 7.5
FPI win total projection: 6.1
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths:
Will Grier is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. The Mountaineers averaged 39.0 points per game with him under center and just 19.7 without him the final three games of last season. David Sills and Gary Jennings lead my No. 2 set of receivers in the country. This is the most veteran unit defensive coordinator Tony Gibson has had to work with in his three years.
Weaknesses: There are four Mountaineers units that do not rank among my top units in the front of the magazine, and those are the running backs, defensive line, secondary and special teams.
Over/under: This number surprised me, as West Virginia was picked second in the Big 12 media poll. Right now the Mountaineers are an underdog versus Oklahoma and on the road against Oklahoma State and Texas. Toss-up games figure to be on the road versus NC State and Iowa State and at home versus TCU. I have a no play on this one as my numbers are similar to the ones in Vegas.
National title: While I can make a case for five or six teams having a shot at winning the Big 12, I do not see any Big 12 team qualifying for the playoff. I also do not see a dominating defense here, so no play.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
With so many toss-up games in the balanced Big 12, the Mountaineers project to win 6.1 games per FPI. Outside the Youngstown State and Kansas games, which are you near-certain West Virginia will win? There's a chance the Mountaineers could go 0-5 in their true road games and that would be enough to cash on the under. Will it happen? Probably not, but that gives you an idea how tough this schedule is, with 11 Power 5 opponents and the number of toss-up games that exist. Love Grier. Love the offense. But the defense is a big question mark and WVU is bound to be in its fair share of high-scoring games, which is never good if you're banking on winning games to cash the over. In the past six years for WVU, regular-season victories are 7, 10, 7, 7, 4 and 7.
Not interested at all in playing West Virginia at 60-1 to win the title.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
If I thought Grier had a good shot at the Heisman last year, you can guarantee I think he'll be in New York as a finalist this year. Another season of Grier getting the signals from one of my favorite playcallers in the country, Jake Spavital, means serious points in Morgantown. Word out of camp is that running back
Alec Sinkfield is the real deal as a runner and as a pass-catcher. With that kind of threat in the backfield and receiver
David Sills (18 touchdown receptions in 2017) returning on the outside, slowing down Grier & Co. will not be easy.
Early games vs. Tennessee and at NC State will be good tests for this group, as the Mountaineers should be able to score enough and let their defense figure things out before they get set for Big 12 play. November will be a monster, with a road trip to Austin, vs. TCU, at Stillwater and vs. Oklahoma to close out the regular season, but maybe it's time in Morgantown. I would not be surprised to see coach Dana Holgerson in the Big 12 title game. I'll go over 7.5 wins.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: West Virginia[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 5-8 | 3-3 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1-4 | 7-5-1 |
| 5-year ATS | 26-38 | 14-18 | 11-13 | 1-7 | 17-23 | 8-15 | 26-37-1 |
| Dana Holgorsen career ATS | 38-52 | 19-27 | 17-16 | 2-9 | 25-35 | 13-17 | 41-48-1 |
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</tbody>
</aside>
[h=2]21.
TCU Horned Frogs[/h]
National title odds: 100-1
Season win total: 7.5
FPI win total projection: 6.7
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: TCU has the best defense in the Big 12, and I rate them No. 7 overall. Last year, the Horned Frogs held their foes to 107 yards per game below their season average, and they have my No. 9 defensive line, No. 9 linebackers and No. 12 secondary. TCU also has my No. 3-rated special teams unit. Coach Gary Patterson says this is the most athletic wide receiver group he has had at TCU.
Weaknesses: TCU has very little experience at quarterback and only 26 career starts back on the offensive line. The good news is Patterson has had success when fielding units that were inexperienced in those two categories.
Over/under: Last year, the Frogs' win total was 7.5 and I had one of my top plays on the over. This year it's 7.5 again. Last year, they were No. 4 on the experience chart and got to 10-2. This year, they fall to No. 120 on the experience chart. In Vegas, TCU is currently an underdog in four games with Ohio State, West Virginia and Texas all away and Oklahoma at home. I have them favored in all their other games, and they are capable of winning two or three of those other four games. I like the over.
National title: TCU is one of my prime contenders in the Big 12 and that gives them a legitimate shot to make the playoff. They have three top-nine finishes the past four years and have great value at 100-1.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
The Horned Frogs would have easily eclipsed that number three of the past four years, so one can probably err on the side of assuming Patterson's team will have another strong campaign. TCU could get behind the eight ball early with Ohio State and Texas in the first four games, but the Horned Frogs do get Oklahoma at home and two of their conference road games are at Baylor and Kansas, which could be the two weakest teams in the conference. With a lot of key parts back on both offense and defense, TCU should be able to scratch together at least an 8-4 campaign.
There's a strong chance the Big 12 champ has at least two losses, so it could be the conference on the outside looking in for the CFP this year.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
I think I'm still out of breath from the Alamo Bowl last year, when the Horned Frogs simply outlasted the Stanford Cardinal 39-37. Patterson just kept pulling all the right strings, as he usually does. This year, I see him having way less of a headache, just because QB Kenny Hill is gone. Instead, we have
Shawn Robinson, who is more of a runner than a thrower. If you eliminate the schools from Kansas, TCU was last in the conference in passing yards last year. So this fit seems more to Patterson's liking as well, because the Horned Frogs have a plethora of talent at running back, led by
Darius Anderson, who rushed for over 750 yards in 10 games.
They have a chance to show the country what they have when they play Ohio State in Week 3 in Arlington, Texas. Besides a trip to Kansas, the only other road game they have outside the state is West Virginia on Nov. 10. I love the Horned Frogs this year and think they will win the Big 12. Over 7.5 wins for sure.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: TCU[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 7-7 | 3-3 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 6-5 | 1-2 | 4-10 |
| 5-year ATS | 31-34 | 15-17 | 14-13 | 2-4 | 20-28 | 11-6 | 30-35 |
| Gary Patterson ATS since 2003 | 95-93-1 | 49-40-1 | 41-42 | 5-11 | 71-76-1 | 24-17 | 87-91-5 |
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[h=2]22.
Texas Longhorns[/h]
National title odds: 30-1
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 8.6
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: Last year, Texas held foes to 122 yards per game below their season average, which was fourth best in the country. This year, the Longhorns have seven starters back on defense, including my No. 5-rated set of linebackers. The Horns also have two capable quarterbacks and my No. 11 set of receivers.
Weaknesses: Last year, the Horns had to replace a 2,000-yard rusher and never found a capable replacement. The offense line paved the way for just 3.6 yards per carry and gave up 34 sacks. I expect both units to improve, but they are both question marks at this point in time.
Over/under: Last year, the number was eight and I had a no-play. This year, the number goes up to 8.5, but I have Texas favored in nine games with two toss-ups and a slight underdog to Oklahoma. I like the over this year in Tom Herman's second year.
National title: Though Herman was 6-0 against ranked opponents with Houston, he went 0-4 against ranked opponents last year. I can envision a scenario where Texas makes the playoff by winning the Big 12. Texas has been a popular play in Vegas, as it is favored in 11 games. The Longhorns have gone just 23-27 the past four years overall and should be priced at 50-1 or better, so not a lot of value here.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
Not enthralled at having to bank on Texas winning nine regular-season games for the first time since 2009 to cash on an over bet. The four-game stretch of USC/TCU/at Kansas State/vs. Oklahoma is tough, but the Longhorns nearly beat Oklahoma last year and had three other losses -- USC, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech -- by four points or fewer. Texas was a dog in many of those games, a role in which Herman's teams typically play well. However, this year, Texas projects to be a 'dog in only two games. Don't underestimate the loss of punter Michael Dickson, who was huge in the field-position battle. The number is spot on and is a no-play for me, but I'd lean toward the under if I had to take a stand.
Texas needs to win nine games in a season before it is worth playing to win the national title.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
It's pretty funny to me how people look back at the 2017 season in Austin, which was the first under Herman for the Longhorns. Was it because of how well he did in his first year at Houston when the Cougars finished 13-1? That does not at all seem fair to me. What did happen last year is Texas lost close games to USC, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Right there is the difference between a 7-6 compared to a possible 10-2. Now, what happens in there has to be better production from the QB position -- whether it's
Sam Ehlinger or
Shane Buechele, the Horns can't be second to last in this conference in yards per attempt and pass efficiency as they were last year.
All in all, they return 16 players on offense who started a game last year. Even though the defense lost plenty of talent, I will guarantee defensive coordinator Todd Orlando will have that unit ready to go. I think they win nine games.
<aside class="inline inline-table">[h=2]Chalk Box: Texas[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 9-4 | 3-3 | 4-1 | 2-0 | 4-3 | 5-1 | 3-10 |
| 5-year ATS | 33-30 | 15-15 | 11-13 | 7-2 | 17-16 | 16-14 | 21-42 |
| Tom Herman career ATS | 9-4 | 3-3 | 4-1 | 2-0 | 4-3 | 5-1 | 14-24-1 |
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[h=2]23.
Oregon Ducks[/h]
National title odds: 100-1
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 8.3
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: The Ducks have five units that rank in my top 20, including top NFL quarterback prospect
Justin Herbert. Oregon's running backs, offensive line, linebackers and secondary are also among the units ranked in the top 20.
Weaknesses: The offense struggled without Herbert in the lineup a season ago. His health will be crucial to the Ducks' success this season. Oregon also loses its career rushing leader in Royce Freeman. The Ducks were just No. 98 in my special teams ranking last year. The receiving corps and defensive line are both ranked but are not in my top 30.
Over/under: The Ducks averaged 52 points with Herbert as the starting quarterback and just 15 points without him. There are four games on the schedule where I see them as an underdog or favored by three points or less, and they should win at least one of those. I will side with the over.
National title: While Mario Cristobal is in his first year as head coach here, he has been on the staff and retained defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt, so there will not be the typical learning curve. Oregon hosts both Washington and Stanford and has a shot at running the table if Herbert stays healthy all season. There is quite a bit of value here at 100-1.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
This is everyone's favorite Pac-12 dark horse, given the fact the nonconference schedule is a joke and both Stanford and Washington visit Eugene. Ducks could still lose both of those games and there are tricky road games at Cal, Arizona and Utah. Sure, the offense was great last year with Herbert in the lineup, but I wonder how much of that was a result of facing some bad defenses. I also don't like when a team rallies to have someone named head coach and then falls flat in a bowl game. Maybe I'm overreacting, but we'll see. Love that Leavitt stays to run the defense, but I'm on the under here.
If I'm on the under, I do not consider the Ducks a national title contender.
Coughlin
No one in the Pac-12 has gotten more love this offseason than the Ducks. There is plenty to like, and Cristobal seems to have the trust of his players, Herbert looks like Thor dressed as a QB, with the latest listings having him at 6-foot-6 and 234 pounds. He has all the toys he needs on offense, which seems to never be the problem in Eugene. Add to that, the bandwagon will only be bigger as the Ducks start the season against creampuffs like Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State. The issue for me with the Ducks is on defense. Last year, they gave up 26 pass plays of 30 yards or more and this year they return only a safety (Ugo Amadi) and corner (Thomas Graham). Six of the 14 defensive backs on the roster are true freshmen.
Why is this an issue? Look at all the returning QBs in the conference who have experience and talent. They could lose four of their first five conference games, including two at home. I say under 8.5 wins for the Quack Attack.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; font-family: -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Roboto","Arial","Helvetica Neue","Helvetica",sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 18px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 6px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 15px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; width: 565px; word-spacing: 0px;">[h=2]Chalk Box: Oregon[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 6-7 | 5-2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 5-3 | 1-4 | 6-7 |
| 5-year ATS | 33-32-1 | 16-18 | 13-11-1 | 4-3 | 27-25 | 6-7-1 | 36-30 |
| Mario Cristobal career ATS | 34-39-2 | 10-15-1 | 19-19 | 5-5-1 | 12-15 | 22-24-1 | 35-38-2 |
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[h=2]24.
UCF Knights[/h]
National title odds: 300-1
Season win total: 9
FPI win total projection: 8.6
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: Quarterback McKenzie Milton is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender this year. I rate the Knights' running backs, receivers, offensive line and special teams all in my top units in the country, so the Knights will have an explosive offense and also be quite sound on special teams.
Weaknesses: The defense gave up 428 yards per game last year and loses six of the top nine tacklers, including the AAC Defensive Player of the year Shaquem Griffin. The offense might have to outscore its opponents to win some games in 2018.
Over/under: This one is a head-scratcher for me. Right now, Vegas has the Knights favored in their toughest three road games and all of their home games. The total is just nine? My computer power ratings do call for a nine-win season, but I will lean with the over here.
National title: It is highly unlikely that a Group of 5 team lands a berth in the playoff. UCF has only two Power 5 teams on the schedule in Pittsburgh, which they get at home, as well as North Carolina on the road. However, if the Knights were to run the table for a second straight year and most Power 5 conference champions had two losses, there would be a chance -- and some outcry.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
The North Carolina game has a different, much more winnable tone given the Tar Heels' suspensions. There are still coin-flip games at Memphis, at South Florida and vs. Pitt. McKenzie Milton is back, but his top target WR Tre'Quan Smith isn't. Mike Hughes and Griffin are huge losses off the defense. There's a new coaching staff in town. I don't think UCF will fall off to, say, seven wins, but 10 might be too much to ask for. Nine feels just about right. UCF is not winning the national title.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
There's just too much change. After a magical season, why would the athletic director not hire the new head coach from within the program? New head coach Josh Heupel comes in fresh off a season where he called an offense that beat every team it played that didn't go to a bowl game and lost to every team it played that went to a bowl game. UCF lost so much more to me than just Scott Frost and his staff.
It lost leading WR Smith, ots top CB Hughes was taken in the first round by Minnesota, TE Jordan Akins was drafted by Houston and of course Griffin was drafted by Seattle. I know the schedule shows the Knights play mediocre Power 5 teams in Pitt and UNC from the ACC, but I wouldn't be surprised if they lost to one of them. They also have to deal with getting the best effort from everyone from their conference, who I'm sure are sick and tired of seeing them still celebrate their "national title." Too much change -- I say under 9.5 wins.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; font-family: -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Roboto","Arial","Helvetica Neue","Helvetica",sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 18px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 6px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 15px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; width: 565px; word-spacing: 0px;">[h=2]Chalk Box: UCF[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 7-4-1 | 3-3-1 | 3-1 | 1-0 | 5-4-1 | 2-0 | 8-5 |
| 5-year ATS | 34-29-1 | 17-14 | 15-12-1 | 2-3 | 21-19-1 | 13-10 | 29-34-1 |
| Josh Heupel career ATS | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
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[h=2]25.
South Carolina Gamecocks[/h]
National title odds: 300-1
Season win total: 7
FPI win total projection: 7.2
[h=3]Steele[/h]
Strengths: Seven of the eight positions rank in my top units in the front of the magazine. They return WR Deebo Samuel and RB Rico Dowdle from injury, and the new hurry-up offense seems as if it will really suit quarterback Jake Bentley.
Weaknesses: The offensive line is the lone unit not ranked in my top units. While the other seven all are, none of them are in the top 15 and have an average rank of 26.2. The depth at LB behind Bryson Allen-Williams is a concern, as is the lack of depth behind Bentley. It will be crucial for the Gamecocks' offensive line to keep Bentley healthy if South Carolina has a shot at competing in the SEC East.
Over/under: I have South Carolina as an underdog in only three games this year, so I do like the over.
National title: I was going to mark this down as a no-play, as I expected the odds to be 60-1 for a team that figures to be Georgia's top competitor in the SEC East. If the Gamecocks knock off Georgia in their early Week 2 matchup, they have a great shot at getting to the SEC title game. This team does not have elite talent, but at 300-1, they are worth a $10 flier.
[h=3]Fallica[/h]
The Gamecocks are projected to be an underdog in four games, and have two games they probably will not win (versus Georgia and at Clemson). It looks as if this total will be decided in the two-game stretch of Missouri and Texas A&M. Win both and it's a probable over. Samuel's return is huge for a team that needs an offensive boost and really relies on its special teams to win games. I'd have a little bit of hesitation predicting huge things this year as the Gamecocks have been the beneficiary of some turnover luck and winning games they've been outgained. Those are trends that are difficult to rely on year in and year out.
South Carolina is not winning the national title.
[h=3]Coughlin[/h]
This might be the toughest team for me to analyze this preseason, and that's strictly due to being selected to be the side judge of the Gamecocks' spring game. No big deal (humble brag). Seriously, though, I went in with the mindset of how great it would be to get a fell for this team in live action on the field, and boy I couldn't have been more wrong. I was so locked in on not blowing a call, I couldn't tell you who even played from their roster. So when I look at Muschamp's men this year, I wonder, who is more valuable? Samuel, who was hurt in Week 3 and missed the rest of the year or Bentley, who comes in starting the past 20 games for South Carolina.
Whether you look at the defense or the offense, experience returns all over the place. There is no doubt Columbia will be amped up when Georgia comes to town in Week 2, but the road schedule seems tricky to close the year with three in November, which all seem dicey. I see seven wins.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-image-outset: 0; border-image-repeat: stretch; border-image-slice: 100%; border-image-source: none; border-image-width: 1; border-left-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(220, 221, 223); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; font-family: -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Roboto","Arial","Helvetica Neue","Helvetica",sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; margin-bottom: 18px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 6px; orphans: 2; padding-bottom: 15px; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; width: 565px; word-spacing: 0px;">[h=2]Chalk Box: South Carolina[/h]
| Total | Home | Away | Neut. | Fav. | Dog | O/U |
|---|
| 2017 ATS | 7-5-1 | 2-4-1 | 4-0 | 1-1 | 1-4-1 | 6-1 | 5-8 |
| 5-year ATS | 32-30-2 | 15-19-1 | 11-11-1 | 6-0 | 12-19-1 | 20-11-1 | 26-37-1 |
| Will Muschamp career ATS | 35-37-3 | 14-24-2 | 15-10-1 | 6-3 | 16-23-2 | 19-14-1 | 33-41-1 |
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish (30-1)Steele: Last season I had the Irish as my No. 1 most improved team in the country and they went from four wins in 2016 to 10 in 2017. In November they were 8-1 and ranked No. 3 in the country before finishing the season 2-2. Notre Dame returns nine starters on defense and Brandon Wimbush at quarterback. Notre Dame's schedule is not easy, but its four true road games are at Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Northwestern and USC. The Irish get Michigan, Stanford and Florida State all at home. My surprise team list is comprised of teams not in the top 10 that I think can win a national title -- Notre Dame is No. 1 on that list.Walder: Does anyone really want to bet on Wimbush? On Brian Kelly? The answer is no and no. But this year, it's the move. Along with the 8-1 odds just to reach the playoff, the Fighting Irish have two of our biggest values on the board. And it's no surprise because Playoff Predictor -- which gives Notre Dame a 42 percent chance to reach the playoff -- is farther away from the public consensus on Notre Dame than possibly any other top team. Predicting independents is tricky, but based on our study of the committee's rankings, our sense is all else being equal, the Fighting Irish will likely lose out to a Power 5 conference champion, but beat a non-champion. And while all else is never exactly equal, what we're really talking about here is the situation in which Notre Dame goes 11-1 and essentially needs at least two conference champions to have at least two losses.The chances of two of the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12 having a two-loss champion? That's 67 percent, and opens the door for two SEC teams or someone like the Fighting Irish. We expect Notre Dame to be straight-up nasty on defense, returning five starters from a top-10 unit (in opponent-adjusted efficiency), so it has the talent on that side of the ball. There is no truly brutal game on the team's 12-game schedule.
Wisconsin Badgers (20-1)Steele: The Badgers lost to Ohio State by just six points in the Big Ten title game last season, so they were only one play away from making the playoff. Wisconsin has the best offensive line in college football, a Heisman Trophy favorite in running back Jonathan Taylor, a three-year starter at quarterback and an upgraded receiving corps. I also rate the defense as No. 10 in the country. Wisconsin does have to face Iowa, Michigan and Penn State on the road, but this is Paul Chryst's best team yet, and Wisconsin is the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Ten West and get to the conference title game.
Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)Harris: Whenever Nick Saban's Alabama relinquishes its spot atop college football, the heir to the throne is Kirby Smart's Georgia Bulldogs. I'm not telling you it's necessarily going to be this season, but whenever it happens, you can take this to the bank: Georgia. Is. Next. At 6-1, I'd rather count on Georgia arriving now than any of the other favorites.
Michigan State Spartans (30-1)Harris: I'm not enthused about any of the dark horses, but I could consider Michigan State at 30-1. The Spartans are loaded coming off a 10-3 season and the biggest offseason question we had was how a program accustomed to playing the "no respect" card and overachieving as a Big Ten hunter would fare with expectations more in line with the league's hunted. From what we've seen so far, this team has answered the call and looks like a hungrier, humbler group than the 2016 team that disappointed following up 2015's playoff berth. I like the way this team's mojo is developing and expect it to repeat last season's success in close games. Getting both Ohio State and Michigan at home gives Sparty a chance.
