StanfordSam's 2018 Election Political plays

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Much like my sports play threads, I'm going to keep track of my political plays for the upcoming 2018 election. I'll add to this thread as I see fit until November rolls around. I'm not a seasoned "political bettor," so this should be interesting.

I've made one play so far.


SENATE composition after Election day:

Republicans -3 (-110) -- risking 5 units
 

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Made another play:


2018 Senate Race in Missouri

Claire McCaskill (D) ML (-105) -- risking 4.2 units
 

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What are the odds of every single Senate race that is in a state that Trump won?

Just curious...
 

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Well, I don't really know how to be more descriptive than that but I'll try....

What are the betting odds of the Senate races that are taking place specifically in states that were won by Donald J. Trump in the 2016 presidential election to be president of the United States of America.
 

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Well, I don't really know how to be more descriptive than that but I'll try....

What are the betting odds of the Senate races that are taking place specifically in states that were won by Donald J. Trump in the 2016 presidential election to be president of the United States of America.

None of the odds of individual Senate races are posted live on the website. I got the odds by emailing the company.

They do have popular vote forecasts for every Senate race: www.beech270.com

It looks like they have the Democrat winning in Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Missouri appears to be a coin flip.
 

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None of the odds of individual Senate races are posted live on the website. I got the odds by emailing the company.

They do have popular vote forecasts for every Senate race: www.beech270.com

It looks like they have the Democrat winning in Arizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Missouri appears to be a coin flip.

No, I mean what are the betting odds on the website that you placed the McCaskill wager.
 

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I would be beyond shocked if the Dem won in AZ. Good luck, Sam.

Really?

AZ is stacked full of illegal Mexicans and their anchor babies (read "freshly minted US citizens") who hate Trump and the United States.... AZ doesn't have much time left as a red state. It will be blue big-time in a number of years and it will descend into 3rd world savagery.

Mexicans don't vote for the rule of law b/c they don't understand laws... and they actually feel like they have the right to break the law with impunity.
 

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Thanks, Siege.

The Senate race in Arizona is basically a coin flip in their projection (I think it's like 50.2-49.8 in favor of the Democrat). I haven't inquired about odds, but I'd bet it's -110 apiece. Definitely not shocking if the Democrat wins, but could definitely go either way -- if you give any weight to these election forecasts.
 

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if you give any weight to these election forecasts.

I dont... AZ is extremely Republican. The OP talking about illegals everywhere, I'm sure he must not be very knowledgeable in this area. AZ has THE largest retirement community in the country (Sun City, AZ). They all vote and its all old white people. Republican will win, for sure. Like I said, I would be beyond shocked if they didnt.
 

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I dont... AZ is extremely Republican. The OP talking about illegals everywhere, I'm sure he must not be very knowledgeable in this area. AZ has THE largest retirement community in the country (Sun City, AZ). They all vote and its all old white people. Republican will win, for sure. Like I said, I would be beyond shocked if they didnt.

Their senators were Flake and McCain as of last week. Extremely RINO maybe.

And like RM said, with the rapidly changing demographics of the state, it's probably going to go blue sooner than later.

Hell, if McCain/Flake were your senators then you could make an argument it already has.
 

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Their senators were Flake and McCain as of last week. Extremely RINO maybe.

And like RM said, with the rapidly changing demographics of the state, it's probably going to go blue sooner than later.

Hell, if McCain/Flake were your senators then you could make an argument it already has.

With all due respect, someone from Boston would know shit about AZ politics and demographics.
 

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With all due respect, someone from Boston would know shit about AZ politics and demographics.

Bro you could live in Antarctica and you would know McCain/Flake are RINO's and that the states demographics are rapidly changing.

You have 2 of the most liberal Republican senators in the country, I don't know how you get to "Extremely Republican" from that.

Maybe the state won't go blue officially, it'll just have to have more RINO's because actual Republicans won't be able to win state-wide races. We'll see but clock gonna strike midnight eventually.

Either way, unless you got "Living in a 3rd world country" on your bucket list, I probably wouldn't wish SS good luck on that 1. Maybe he can hit a baseball parlay instead?
 

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Care to wager on it? Ill take the Republican, you can have the Dem. Put your money where your mouth is Rachel Maddow.
 

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Care to wager on it? Ill take the Republican, you can have the Dem. Put your money where your mouth is Rachel Maddow.

You're the one defending liberals in this conversation, not me. Although you're probably not smart enough to know it.

If you think the senators that your state has elected are "extremely Republican" then I can only laugh at that.

Maybe those Sun City geriatrics could try electing a real Republican for once? Don't know much about the candidate but seems doubtful based on recent history.

Who is this girl, anyway? Is she for open borders or we're changing it up here?
 

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You're the one defending liberals in this conversation not me, although you're probably not smart enough to know it.

If you think the senators that your state has elected are "extremely Republican" then I can only laugh at that.

Ok, you had your chance. Bye! My argument, all along, was that the Republican will win and if you were wagering you could make money on it. Somewhere along the way you decided youre an expert at AZ politics and demographics. Youre clearly talking out of your ass, are running from a challenge and dont know shit about it. So like I said, bye.

Also, Ive seen Sam hit a hell of alot more parlays than your ass has ever put up. Chump.
 

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I never said Republicans won't win that seat, I said based on the recent history of the Republican senators that have won that state, it isn't as red as you think. Echoing Runmaker's comments.

Hopefully this girl wins and isn't an open borders clown like the previous Senators y'all have had. We'll see.
 

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