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Thread: Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

  1. #476  
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    Thursday’s 6-pack


    — Sam Darnold (foot) is out for this week’s game with Buffalo.


    — If Le’Veon Bell is going to play for Pittsburgh this year, he has to report by 4pm on Nov. 13.


    — Ohio State 64, Cincinnati 56— Buckeyes win an ugly game.


    — Kansas Jayhawks fired football coach David Beaty; he’ll finish this season.


    — Astros’ P Lance McCullers had Tommy John surgery, will miss all of 2019.


    — Cubs’ manager Joe Maddon will enter 2019 as a lame duck; he didn’t get his contract extension. Guy won the World Series two years ago.


    Quote of the Day
    “I saw some kid on Duke last night who is pretty impressive. I probably can’t say anything more … I thought LeBron, I thought that was a one shot deal, but apparently the next guy’s coming. Before I get fined, I’m going to change the subject.”
    Steve Kerr, talking about Duke’s Zion Williamson


    Thursday’s quiz
    Where did Steve Kerr play his college basketball?
    (Hint: He played in a Final Four)


    Wednesday’s quiz
    Craig Morton started in Super Bowls for Dallas and the Denver Broncos.


    Tuesday’s quiz
    Craig Morton played QB for the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl V, the first time they played in a Super Bowl.


    ***********************


    Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….


    13) So I’m voting Tuesday and this guy voting next to me had his daughter with him- she is maybe 6, 7 years old. As he is voting, the little girl says “Thats not who mommy voted for” and the guy says “Daddy isn’t going to vote for everyone Mommy voted for” and then the little girl and dad start arguing, with the little girl wanting mommy and daddy to agree on everything.


    Quality entertainment. And for free.


    12) Sunday was a rough day for Nevada sports books; every NFL team that the public supported covered the spread. A guy who is a 25-year veteran of working in Las Vegas said it was one of the 10 worst days Nevada sports books have ever had in sports wagering.


    11) Times have changed; the Cowboys willingly wore blue jerseys at home Monday night. There was a time when Dallas went on the road, opposing teams would wear white at home, to force the Cowboys to wear the blue jerseys that they didn’t seem to like wearing.


    10) New Mets’ GM Brodie Van Wagenen is making $10M for four years. He was the agent for the Mets’ two best players, Jacob deGrom and Yoenis Cespedes. He was also Tim Tebow’s agent; Tebow is expected to start next season at AAA Syracuse.


    9) Lot of NBA teams have cameras over the baskets, which provide great replays of action around the rim; the funny thing is that they then put advertising on top of the backboards, so you see it when those replays are shown. Wonder how much they charge for that?


    8) The NBA is more fun to watch now than it has been in a while; lot more passing, solid shooting. The success Golden State is having has influenced the game in a positive way.


    7) Toronto Argonauts fired coach Marc Trestman after a 4-14 season, but his Argos won the Grey Cup LAST YEAR.


    Trestman won two Grey Cups coaching Montreal from 2008-12, then went 13-19 in two years coaching the Chicago Bears. He later was an OC for the Baltimore Ravens, but was fired during the 2016 season. Mr Trestman could write a very interesting book.


    6) Not that I’m bitter or anything, but I see DeAndre Ayton and Allonzo Trier playing major minutes in NBA games this fall, but when I picked Arizona in their first round NCAA game last March, they lost by 21 to a freakin’ MAC team. No bueno!!!! LOLOL


    5) Miami, Florida, Florida State all went 0-2 the last two weekends.


    That is the FIRST time that has EVER happened.


    4) San Francisco Giants hired GM Farhan Zaidi as their new GM Tuesday.


    For the past four years, Zaidi was GM of the rival Dodgers; before that, he was the assistant GM to Billy Beane with the A’s.


    3) Jamal Murray scored 48 points for Denver Monday night; he took a shot late in the game, trying to get to 50, and the Celtics get all offended, like Murray isn’t supposed to try and put the ball in the basket. Thats what he gets paid for.


    You don’t want him to score 50? Guard his bleepin’ ass, don’t let him get to 40!!! Don’t run your mouth after the game, move your feet during the game.


    2) Guy at the Golden Nugget in Atlantic City put $6 down on a 12-team parlay this weekend and he hit it, with Titans (+5) clinching his $9,600 payoff. Well done!!!


    1) Chicago Blackhawks fired coach Joel Quenneville, who won three Stanley Cups in Chicago, the last one in 2015. He’s the second-winningest coach in NHL history with an all-time record of 890-532-214. Sounds like a guy who won’t be unemployed too long.
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    Underdog Plays - Week 10
    November 7, 2018
    By Bookmaker



    by Kyle Markus


    NFL Football Odds - Top NFL Underdog Plays Of Week 10



    In a 16-game season, playoff spots can often be decided by one or two close outcomes. When underdogs are able to pull out a win, it greatly increases their chance at making a postseason push. The NFL is known for its parity and this year is no exception, as underdogs have come away with surprising wins every week of the year.


    As the NFL slate heads into Week 10, there will be plenty of underdogs who cover and a few who win outright to pay off well on the moneyline. Here is a look at some of the best underdog plays in NFL gambling.


    Odds Analysis - per BookMaker.eu


    The Carolina Panthers will be on the road this week in a tough matchup against a talented Pittsburgh Steelers team. The Panthers are the +172 underdogs on the moneyline but their offense is really clicking. The Steelers have played better lately but look more vulnerable this season than in past years. These are good odds, so jump on Carolina to pull off the upset.


    The Tennessee Titans are 6.5-point home underdogs in a matchup against the New England Patriots. Tennessee isn’t a great team but plays the right type of style to keep this one close. If the Titans can run the ball well and quarterback Marcus Mariota avoids turnovers, they could actually put a sc02
    are into the Patriots. New England should squeak out the win but the Titans are the choice to cover as the underdogs.


    The San Francisco 49ers looked great last time out against the Raiders, and will be favored by three points against the New York Giants. The 49ers are at home and third-string quarterback Nick Mullens will start again after a fantastic debut against Oakland. The Giants’ defense is better than Oakland’s and a game’s worth of tape to study will bring Mullens back to earth. New York is the pick to cover the spread and is also a logical choice as the +127 underdog on the moneyline.


    The Miami Dolphins don’t have a great team but they are decent enough. They are 10-point underdogs on the road against the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay is tough to beat at home and the presence of Aaron Rodgers is the reason why this spread is so large. However, the Packers have some holes and this spread is high. Take the Dolphins to get a late score to earn the backdoor cover in Green Bay.


    Free NFL ATS Picks


    The Jacksonville Jaguars have had a disappointing season after making it to the AFC Championship game a year ago. They will aim to get back on track this week in a road matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. Indy has a star quarterback in Andrew Luck but he could get neutralized by Jacksonville’s talented defense.


    The Jaguars have stumbled lately but they are 3-point underdogs and that spread is entirely too high. Quarterback Blake Bortles has had some serious issues of late but look for him to bounce back against a soft Indianapolis defense. The Jaguars are the choice to not just cover but pull off the upset at +125 odds in NFL gambling.


    NFL ATS Pick: Jaguars to beat the Colts as the +125 underdog
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    Ugly Dogs - Week 10
    November 7, 2018
    By BetDSI



    By Tom Wilkinson


    NFL Week 10 Ugly Dogs



    If you want to win money betting NFL games then you need to go against the grain. One of the ways to do that is to take teams that no one else wants to bet. I call them ugly dogs and last week those ugly dogs had a rough week as they went -0-2 against the spread, but in the last five weeks they are still 12-7 ATS. There are four plays this week, including one of the biggest pointspreads in recent memory. Let’s look at the Week 10 ugly dog picks.


    Check out the latest Week 10 NFL odds at BetDSI


    Buffalo Bills +7 at New York Jets


    The Bills have been a mess lately without rookie quarterback Josh Allen. They have been blown out in each of their last three games and scored less than 10 points in each contest. It seems unlikely that Allen will play this week, but at least the Bills won’t have to go with Nathan Peterman, as it appears that Derek Anderson will be ready to go.


    Anderson isn’t great, but someone off the street would be better at quarterback than Peterman. The Jets are also not a good team and they are laying a touchdown in this one. The public will be going against the Bills in this one and that helps our cause. We’ll take the Bills as our first ugly dog play of the week.


    Arizona Cardinals +17 at Kansas City Chiefs


    The Kansas City Chiefs look like the best team in the NFL and they have the most explosive offense in the league. They are at home against an Arizona team that has won just two games all season. The Cardinals don’t have any real chance of slowing down the Chiefs in this one, so this game comes down to whether or not the Cardinals offense can do something against the Kansas City defense. The Cardinals do have David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, but rookie quarterback Josh Rosen is struggling.


    The public is going to be all over the Chiefs in this one and who can argue, as the Chiefs are not only winning, but they are covering. This is a huge number so perhaps the Cardinals can slip in the backdoor. We’ll go against everyone here and take the Cardinals as an ugly dog.


    Oakland Raiders +10 vs. Los Angeles Chargers


    When was the last time the Raiders were getting double-digits at home? The Raiders are a complete mess under Jon Gruden and playing for next year. They face a Los Angeles team that looks like they could be one of the few teams in the league that could challenge Kansas City or New England in the AFC.


    The only positive for the Raiders is that this is a rivalry game, so perhaps they will show some emotion. This one is ugly, as no one is going to want to bet the Raiders, but that is what these picks are all about. We’ll take the big points with the Raiders as an ugly dog.


    Dallas Cowboys +6.5 at Philadelphia Eagles


    It is hard to believe that the Cowboys have fallen into the ugly dog category but that is the case. They are just 3-5 on the season, are poorly coached, and they could be without one of their top defensive players, as Sean Lee is hurt yet again. They now have to go into Philadelphia off a Monday night and play a rested Philadelphia team coming off their bye.


    The Cowboys have some talent, but they simply can’t put everything together. The positive for Dallas is that this is a division game and one that they simply have to win to stay in touch with the Redskins and Eagles in the NFC East. Not many people are going to want anything to do with the Cowboys coming off their poor showing against Tennessee so that gives us added value on Dallas. It is hard to put money down on the Cowboys, but they qualify as an ugly dog this week in Philadelphia.
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    Teams to Watch - Week 10
    November 7, 2018
    By YouWager.eu



    Futures Forecast Predictions, top picks, teams to avoid for Week 10


    We are now officially into the second half of the season, with the better teams in the league beginning to separate from the pack. While there is still a lot of football to be played, it’s fair to suggest that a little bit of panic has to be settling in for the teams on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. Some of those teams are rather surprising, with the likes of Atlanta, Green Bay, and Jacksonville all sitting off the pace and out of the playoffs.


    There is still time for these teams to make good, starting in Week 10, so let’s look at who to play and avoid this weekend with all the odds, props and futures offered by YouWager.eu.


    Detroit Lions (+230) at Chicago Bears (-280)


    We all expected the Bears to take a step forward this season, but I must admit that I still had them sitting behind the Vikings and the Packers in the NFC North. They are sitting on top of the division right now and have an opportunity to improve on their current record when they host the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon.


    The Lions have been brutal on offense over the last couple of weeks and have now traded away top receiver Golden Tate, a sure sign that they have given up on this season. They are probably going to struggle against a very good Bears D, which is why I will choose to avoid the Detroit Lions.


    New Orleans Saints (-230) at Cincinnati Bengals (+190)

    If the season was to end today, both of these teams would be in the playoffs, so it goes without saying that this is one of the best games on the Week 10 schedule. We all knew that the Saints were for real before last week, but they put a bit of an exclamation point on their season by handing the Rams their first loss of the year.


    This is by no means going to be an easy road trip, but you have to wonder what kind of hit the Bengals are going to take without the injured A.J. Green in the line-up. I think that alone swings things in the favor of the road team, which is why I would play the New Orleans Saints.


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    Los Angeles Chargers (-490) at Oakland Raiders (+390)


    In the AFC, it is the Patriots and the Chiefs who appear to be getting all the love, but we really should not be sleeping on the Chargers. Over the past few seasons, the Chargers have had to dig themselves out of an early hole after a slow start, but that has not been the case this season. This is a team that is firing on all cylinders, yet still somehow flying below the radar.


    They will make the short trip to Oakland to face a Raiders team that is falling apart at the seams. It has been nothing but chaos since Joh Gruden took over, which is just one of the reasons why I would avoid the Oakland Raiders.


    Dallas Cowboys (+230) at Philadelphia Eagles (-280)


    If we are talking about surprise teams this season, we need to talk about the defending Super Bowl Champions Eagles. They have had a poor start to the season, finishing the first half at .500 and below the playoff line. The Cowboys come into this one one game worse than the Eagles, but perhaps the most surprising element of their first half is that they are winless on the road.


    Philly is still very much in the race to win the NFC East, but they need to start putting some wins together now. I think that urgency drives them forward, which is why I am going to play the Philadelphia Eagles.
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    Saints sign ex-Cowboys WR Bryant
    November 7, 2018
    By The Associated Press



    METAIRIE, La. (AP) Dez Bryant has found a new team, agreeing to join the already prolific offense of the surging New Orleans Saints.


    The former Dallas Cowboys wide receiver, who has been looking for an NFL home since becoming a free agent in April, will now have a chance to catch passes from one of the most prolific quarterbacks in NFL history in New Orleans' Drew Brees.


    ''There is certainly a skillset that he has that is going to be beneficial. So I look forward to getting to work with him. I look forward to building a rapport with him. I look forward to getting him involved in this offense and just become a complement to all the guys that we already have,'' Brees said. ''He'll be a great addition.''


    The 30-year-old Bryant and the Saints agreed to contract terms on Wednesday, and it remains unclear to what extent Bryant will play when New Orleans visits Cincinnati on Sunday.


    Bryant spent his first eight years in the NFL with Dallas and last season caught 69 passes for 838 yards and six touchdowns, including a 50-yard scoring play, for the Cowboys.


    However, his professional reputation has been marred at times by public confrontations with coaches and teammates during games and practices.


    Veteran Saints tight end Ben Watson said players in New Orleans' locker room must guard against pre-judging Bryant based on superficial observations from old television clips without knowing all the facts or how Bryant has evolved personally since.


    ''I don't know Dez. I wasn't in the locker room with him in Dallas. I don't know all the dynamics,'' Watson said. ''I also don't know what's transpired with him personally since that situation. So the great thing about a locker room, I think, is we take guys in and we say, `Hey, what are you like now?'''


    Seeking salary cap relief, the Cowboys released Bryant after last season with two years remaining on the receiver's five-year, $70 million contract.


    Last season was Bryant's best since he caught 88 passes for 1,320 yards and 16 TDs in 2014, which at the time was his third consecutive season with at least 1,200 yards receiving. He signed his last Cowboys contract right after that, but has not approached that level of production since - a central reason Dallas released him in April.


    ''What matters is, what are we going to do for the next eight games?'' said Watson, who played for the Patriots when running back Corey Dillon arrived with a reputation as a malcontent from Cincinnati in 2004 and helped New England win a Super Bowl.


    Watson was still with the Patriots in 2007 when they added another perceived malcontent in receiver Randy Moss, who caught 23 of Tom Brady's NFL-record 50 TD passes that season.


    ''People change over time and there are certain factors you just don't know about. So we just move forward,'' Watson said. ''If somebody's new, you have a clean slate and you embrace that person because now they're your teammate.''


    Bryant was among several receivers to work out for the Saints on Tuesday. He'd previously met with Cleveland and Baltimore.


    New Orleans (7-1), which has won seven straight and leads the NFC South, didn't necessarily need another receiver.


    Led by the record-setting Brees, the Saints rank seventh on offense overall, averaging 402.2 yards per game, and seventh in passing, averaging 289.9 yards. At the same time, New Orleans is without deep threat Ted Ginn Jr., who is currently on injured reserve and won't be eligible to return until the final few weeks of the season, if he's ready by then.


    The Saints also have yet to receive consistent production from Cameron Meredith, a former Chicago receiving leader who was acquired in free agency, but who also is trying to come back from major knee surgery that wiped out his 2017 season.


    Bryant's return to the NFL with the Saints means he could play against his former club in a few weeks. The Saints play at Dallas on Nov. 29.


    ''They're getting a great receiver. He goes up and attacks the ball better than I've seen anyone,'' Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliot said. ''He's definitely a special player and I'm glad he got picked up and I'm glad something worked out for him.''


    Added Cowboys coach Jason Garrett: ''I'm happy he has an opportunity to go play and finish the right way, it will be a great environment for him to go out and make an impact.''


    New Orleans also has two games remaining against division rival Carolina (6-2).


    ''The nice thing is we don't play them until December, so we will get an opportunity to see what they are doing with him,'' Panthers coach Ron Rivera said shortly after hearing about Bryant's agreement with the Saints. ''He's a good player. He's a guy that has shown he can go up and get the football.''
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    Bettors jump on Panthers' opening odds for NFL Week 10 battle vs. Steelers
    Patrick Everson


    Greg Olsen and the Panthers have won and covered in their last three games, which has apparently caught bettors' attention. Carolina opened +6.5 at Pittsburgh and was quickly bet to +5.5.


    Every NFL team will have at least half the season in the rearview mirror when Week 9 concludes Monday night. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of Week 10 contests, with insights from John Murray and Derek Wilkinson, director and supervisor, respectively, of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.


    Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)


    Pittsburgh is starting to look more like, well, Pittsburgh heading into this Thursday night contest. The Steelers (5-2-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) have won and covered four in a row and five of six, including a 23-16 Week 9 victory at Baltimore as 1.5-point underdogs.


    Carolina won and cashed in its last three outings and is 5-1 SU in its last six, trying to keep pace with New Orleans in the NFC South. The Panthers (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) bolted to a 35-7 lead against Tampa Bay, but had to hang on late in a 42-28 win as 6-point home favorites in Week 9.


    There was no action on this number in the first hour after it was posted, but Carolina drew some cash Sunday night.


    “We got a decent-sized bet on Panthers +6.5 and another at +6,” Wilkinson said. “Also, the market evened out lower than we anticipated.”


    Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5)


    Los Angeles finally exited the ranks of the undefeated, well after every other NFL team had at least one loss. The Rams (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) found themselves in a 35-14 second-quarter hole at New Orleans, came all the way back to tie the game at 35, but couldn’t quite finish in a 45-35 setback laying 1.5 points.


    Seattle looked like it was finding good form with a 4-1 SU and ATS run heading into Week 9. But the Seahawks (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) fell flat at home against San Diego, losing 25-17 as 1-point home pups.


    “We opened it Rams -9.5 and took one bet on the Rams so far, but nothing noteworthy,” Murray said. “The Rams will be included in every teaser and moneyline parlay next week.”


    The SuperBook moved with the market to Rams -10 on Sunday night.


    Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)


    The NFC East is completely up for grabs at the midway point, and defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is rested for the second half, coming off its bye week. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) beat Jacksonville 24-18 laying 3.5 points on the road in Week 8, but have yet to win back-to-back games this season.


    Dallas still has some Week 9 work to do before thinking about this Sunday night NFC East clash. The Cowboys (3-4 SU and ATS), coming off a Week 8 bye, host Tennessee in the Monday nighter.


    “We opened Eagles -6 and haven't seen any bets yet on either side,” Murray said. “We will need Dallas by kickoff on Sunday night.”


    Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)


    Green Bay is in the midst of a very tough stretch of four road games in five weeks, the first two of which were in Weeks 8 and 9, taking the squad from the West Coast to the East Coast. In the Week 9 Sunday nighter, the Packers (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) traveled to New England as 5-point ‘dogs and couldn’t keep up in the second half, falling 31-17.


    Miami got out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, then spent the past several weeks trying to regain that form. The Dolphins (5-4 SU and ATS) ended a 1-4 SU and ATS skid by slogging past the New York Jets 13-6 as 3-point home favorites in Week 9.


    “We opened Packers -7.5 and took some money on Miami, but we are leaving the line there,” Murray said. “I'm sure we will want more Miami money by Sunday.”


    Per The SuperBook’s standard operating procedure, the line on this game was taken off the board while the Packers battled the Patriots on Sunday night. The line will go back up Monday morning.
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    NFL
    Long Sheet


    Week 10



    Thursday. November 8


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    CAROLINA (6 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 2 - 1) - 11/8/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 116-85 ATS (+22.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 167-132 ATS (+21.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    CAROLINA is 161-125 ATS (+23.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Sunday, November 9


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BUFFALO (2 - 7) at NY JETS (3 - 6) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY JETS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NY JETS is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ATLANTA (4 - 4) at CLEVELAND (2 - 6 - 1) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 14-31 ATS (-20.1 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW ORLEANS (7 - 1) at CINCINNATI (5 - 3) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ORLEANS is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WASHINGTON (5 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 5) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TAMPA BAY is 64-39 ATS (+21.1 Units) in November games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEW ENGLAND (7 - 2) at TENNESSEE (4 - 4) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 34-13 ATS (+19.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 34-13 ATS (+19.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 33-13 ATS (+18.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 115-149 ATS (-48.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIAMI (5 - 4) at GREEN BAY (3 - 4 - 1) - 11/11/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MIAMI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    MIAMI is 57-82 ATS (-33.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 109-80 ATS (+21.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 190-136 ATS (+40.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 72-45 ATS (+22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    JACKSONVILLE (3 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 5) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    JACKSONVILLE is 4-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DETROIT (3 - 5) at CHICAGO (5 - 3) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
    DETROIT is 139-175 ATS (-53.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    DETROIT is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
    DETROIT is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ARIZONA (2 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (8 - 1) - 11/11/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
    KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
    KANSAS CITY is 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
    KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA CHARGERS (6 - 2) at OAKLAND (1 - 7) - 11/11/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CHARGERS is 121-91 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 121-91 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 97-71 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 77-107 ATS (-40.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 77-107 ATS (-40.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 27-49 ATS (-26.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 143-180 ATS (-55.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA CHARGERS is 4-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    LA CHARGERS is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
    4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SEATTLE (4 - 4) at LA RAMS (8 - 1) - 11/11/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 188-236 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 188-236 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 134-186 ATS (-70.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 146-187 ATS (-59.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 66-99 ATS (-42.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
    LA RAMS is 3-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DALLAS (3 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 4) - 11/11/2018, 8:20 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Monday. November 12


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NY GIANTS (1 - 7) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 7) - 11/12/2018, 8:15 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY GIANTS are 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
    NY GIANTS are 37-64 ATS (-33.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 35-59 ATS (-29.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 32-10 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #483  
    RX Local
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Las Vegas
    Posts
    82,605
    NFL


    Week 10



    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Thursday, November 8


    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
    Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games
    Pittsburgh is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Carolina




    Sunday, November 11


    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
    Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
    Detroit is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
    Detroit is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Chicago
    Detroit is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Chicago Bears
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Detroit
    Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
    Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
    Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games at home
    Chicago is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Detroit
    Chicago is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
    Chicago is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
    Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit




    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    Arizona is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games
    Arizona is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Arizona's last 21 games on the road
    Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
    Kansas City Chiefs
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games at home
    Kansas City is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
    Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
    Kansas City is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona




    New England Patriots
    New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    New England is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
    New England is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games on the road
    New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games
    Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Tennessee is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games at home
    Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
    Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England




    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
    New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
    Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing New Orleans




    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games
    Atlanta is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
    Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games on the road
    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Cleveland is 2-22-1 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
    Cleveland is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games at home
    Cleveland is 3-18-1 SU in its last 22 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland's last 18 games at home




    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
    Jacksonville is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games on the road
    Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Jacksonville's last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
    Jacksonville is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 16 games
    Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Indianapolis is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games at home
    Indianapolis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Indianapolis's last 14 games when playing Jacksonville
    Indianapolis is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
    Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville




    Washington Redskins
    Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 12 games
    Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 15 of Washington's last 23 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
    Washington is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
    Washington is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Washington is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
    Tampa Bay is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games at home
    Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Washington
    Tampa Bay is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
    Tampa Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Washington




    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
    Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
    Buffalo is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing NY Jets
    Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Jets
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
    Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
    NY Jets is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games
    NY Jets is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Jets's last 9 games at home
    NY Jets is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
    NY Jets is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
    NY Jets is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
    NY Jets is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Buffalo
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing at home against Buffalo




    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of LA Chargers's last 19 games
    LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 10 games on the road
    LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
    LA Chargers is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Oakland
    LA Chargers is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    LA Chargers is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
    Oakland is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Oakland's last 15 games
    Oakland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games at home
    Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
    Oakland is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
    Oakland is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
    Oakland is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers




    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    Miami is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Miami is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
    Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing Green Bay
    Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
    Green Bay is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
    Green Bay is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 14 games
    Green Bay is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Green Bay is 11-4-1 SU in its last 16 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home
    Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami




    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games
    Seattle is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
    Seattle is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Rams
    Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games when playing LA Rams
    Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
    LA Rams is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    LA Rams is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    LA Rams is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
    LA Rams is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Rams's last 17 games when playing Seattle
    LA Rams is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
    LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing at home against Seattle




    Dallas Cowboys
    Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Dallas's last 17 games
    Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
    Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    Philadelphia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
    Philadelphia is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing Dallas
    Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
    Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas




    Monday, November 12


    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of NY Giants's last 15 games
    NY Giants is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    NY Giants is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games on the road
    NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
    NY Giants is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
    NY Giants is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    NY Giants is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
    San Francisco is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Francisco's last 12 games
    San Francisco is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
    San Francisco is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
    San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
    San Francisco is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Giants
    San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
    San Francisco is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against NY Giants
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  9. #484  
    RX Local
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Las Vegas
    Posts
    82,605
    NFL
    Dunkel


    Week 10





    Thursday. November 8

    Carolina @ Pittsburgh


    Game 107-108
    November 8, 2018 @ 8:20 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Carolina
    133.230
    Pittsburgh
    144.783
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 11 1/2
    57
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 4
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Pittsburgh
    (-4); Over




    Sunday, November 11


    Buffalo @ NY Jets



    Game 251-252
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Buffalo
    113.155
    NY Jets
    130.046
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Jets
    by 17
    35
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Jets
    by 7
    37
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Jets
    (-7); Under


    Atlanta @ Cleveland



    Game 253-254
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    134.180
    Cleveland
    125.412
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 9
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 4
    50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (-4); Over


    New Orleans @ Cincinnati



    Game 455-456
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    141.922
    Cincinnati
    129.806
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 12
    60
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 4 1/2
    53 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (-4 1/2); Over


    Washington @ Tampa Bay



    Game 257-258
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    126.453
    Tampa Bay
    126.346
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Washington
    Even
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tampa Bay
    by 3
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Washington
    (+3); Over


    New England @ Tennessee



    Game 259-260
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    New England
    139.331
    Tennessee
    134.930
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 4 1/2
    43
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 7
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Tennessee
    (+7); Under


    Miami @ Green Bay



    Game 261-262
    November 11, 2018 @ 4:25 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    121.506
    Green Bay
    134.917
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 13 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 9 1/2
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (-9 1/2); Under


    Jacksonville @ Indianapolis



    Game 263-264
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Jacksonville
    125.590
    Indianapolis
    131.291
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 5 1/2
    50
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 3
    47
    Dunkel Pick:
    Indianapolis
    (-3); Over


    Detroit @ Chicago



    Game 265-266
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Detroit
    128.774
    Chicago
    139.199
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago
    by 10 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    by 6 1/2
    45
    Dunkel Pick:
    Chicago
    (-6 1/2); Under


    Arizona @ Kansas City



    Game 267-268
    November 11, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Arizona
    122.766
    Kansas City
    141.359
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Kansas City
    by 18 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Kansas City
    by 16 1/2
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (-16 1/2); Under


    LA Chargers @ Oakland



    Game 269-270
    November 11, 2018 @ 4:05 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Chargers
    131.179
    Oakland
    123.525
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 7 1/2
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Chargers
    by 10
    50 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Oakland
    (+10); Under


    Seattle @ LA Rams



    Game 271-272
    November 11, 2018 @ 4:25 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Seattle
    134.123
    LA Rams
    136.791
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 2 1/2
    53
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 10
    51 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (+10); Over


    Dallas @ Philadelphia



    Game 273-274
    November 11, 2018 @ 8:20 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    128.890
    Philadelphia
    132.401
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 3 1/2
    40
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 6 1/2
    43
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (+6 1/2); Under




    Monday, November 1


    NY Giants @ San Francisco



    Game 275-276
    November 12, 2018 @ 8:15 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Giants
    124.669
    San Francisco
    126.185
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    by 1 1/2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Francisco
    by 3
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    NY Giants
    (+3); Under
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  10. #485  
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    Armadillo's Write-Up


    Week 10





    Thursday
    Panthers (6-2) @ Steelers (5-2-1)— Carolina won/covered its last three games; they’ve got 13 TD’s on their last 24 drives. In their wins, Panthers are +11 in TO’s, -3 in losses- they’re 1-2 on road, rallying back from down 17-0 in only win; since ’15, they’re 10-4 in last 14 games as road underdogs. Steelers won/covered their last four games; Pitt is 2-2 at home this year, losing to Chiefs/Ravens- since ’13, they’re 20-15 as HF, 2-2 this year. Pitt won last five meetings, all by 10+ points; Carolina is 0-3 at Heinz Field, losing by 10-16-24 points. FC South non-divisional road teams are 4-7 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional HF are 5-3. Over is 5-2 in last seven Carolina games, 3-1 in Steeler home games.


    Sunday
    Bills (2-7) @ Jets (3-6)— It would take onions to lay 7.5 points with the Jets. Gang Green lost last three games, by 20-14-7 points; they scored one TD on their last 23 drives. Jets are 2-2 SU at home; under Bowles, they’re 7-5 as HF, 2-1 this year. Buffalo is really bad; they lost last four games- in their last two games, Bills ran 144 plays, and were outscored 21-15 by other team’s defense on those plays. Buffalo is 2-3 as AU this year; in their last three games, Bills are -10 in turnovers. Jets won three of last four series games, winning 30-10/34-21 in last two played here. Opening total of 36.5 is NFL’s lowest since 2012. NFL-wide, divisional HF are 11-13 vs spread this year. Under is 6-1 in Bills’ last seven games, 2-4 in Jets’ last six games.


    Falcons (4-4) @ Browns (2-6-1)— Atlanta won its last three games, scoring 31.7 ppg; they’ve converted 42 of last 68 third down plays, scored 11 TD’s on last 28 drives. Falcons are 1-2 on road this year; under Quinn, they’re 5-7 as road favorites, 0-0 this year. Atlanta is 5-10 vs spread in its last 15 games on natural grass. Cleveland lost its last four games, allowing 33.5 ppg; they’re 6-14-1 in last 21 games as home underdogs, 2-2 this year. Home side lost three of four series games, with Browns winning three of the four games, splitting pair here. NFC South non-divisions road teams are 6-3 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 3-5. Over is 6-1 in Falcons’ last seven games, 3-1 in Browns’ last four games.


    Saints (7-1) @ Bengals (5-3)— New Orleans won its last seven games, covered last six, has trap game here, coming off big wins over NFC rivals Vikings/Rams. Saints are 4-0 on road this year, scoring 32.5 ppg; they’re 5-1 in last six games as road favorites, 1-0 this year. Bengals lost two of last three games; they’re 3-1 at home- they covered eight of last nine games as a home dog. Cincy won four of last five series games; home side lost four of last six series games. Saints are 4-3 in their visits here, with last one in ’10. AJ Green (toe) is out here, big blow to Bengal offense. Cincy is 6-13 vs spread in last 19 post-bye games; NFC South non-divisions road teams are 6-3 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 3-5. Under is 3-1 in Bengals’ last four games.


    Redskins (5-3) @ Buccaneers (3-5)— In its last six games, Tampa Bay is minus-17 in turnovers, which is terrible- they have one takeaway in their last five games. Tampa Bay’s defense is hurting; they allowed 37-42 points in last two games, 30+ points in five of last six. Bucs allowed 10 TD’s on foes’ last 23 drives. Washington won three of its last four games; they’ve run ball for 130+ yards in their wins, 65-39-79 in their losses. Redskins are 8-6 in last 14 games as road underdogs, 1-1 this year. Teams split last eight meetings; four of last five meetings were decided by 3 or fewer points. Redskins are 2-3 vs Bucs here, with last visit in ’12. Over is 7-1 in Tampa Bay games this year; under is 3-1 in Redskins’ last four games.


    Patriots (7-2) @ Titans (4-4)— New England won its last nine (8-1 vs spread) pre-bye games; they won last six games overall (5-1 vs spread). NE is 2-2 on road this year, 2-2 as AF; since ’16, they’re 13-6 as AF. Patriots won last seven series games, with last five wins all by 17+ points- they waxed Titans 35-14 in a playoff game LY, won last two visits here 40-23/34-13. Tennessee snapped 3-game skid with Monday night win; this is short week for them. Titans covered three of last four tries as home dogs- they’re 2-1 at home this year, with both wins by a FG. In their last two games, Tennessee converted 20-29 third down plays. Titans are 3-1 when they score 20+ points, 1-3 when they score less; Under is 5-2 in last seven Tennessee games.


    Dolphins (5-4) @ Packers (3-4-1)— Green Bay lost at Rams/Patriots last two weeks, drop way down in class here; Packers are 3-0-1 at home this year, 1-2 as HF- since 2014, they’re 18-12-2 as HF. Miami won LW without scoring an offensive TD; Dolphins lost their last three road games, by 31-10-19 points, after beating Jets in road opener. Miami is 3-8 in its last 11 games as road underdogs, 1-3 this year. Green Bay won three of last four meetings, after losing nine of first 10; Dolphins are 3-2 on frozen tundra, winning last visit here 23-20 in OT in ’10. Dolphins are 2-6 vs spread in last eight pre-bye games. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 2-9 vs spread this year. Three of last four Miami games went over the total.


    Jaguars (3-5) @ Colts (3-5)— Jaguars lost last four games, scoring only three TD’s on 30 drives in last three games; they’re 1-2 in true road games, covered seven of last eight post-bye games; Jags are 7-5 in last 12 games as road underdogs, 0-1 this year. Jags covered seven of their last eight post-bye games. Colts scored 37-42 points in winning last two games, after a 1-5 start; they’re 1-2 at home this year, 1-2 as HF. Since ’14, Indy is 13-11-1 as HF- they’re 10-3 vs spread in their last 13 post-bye games. Jax won four of last five series games, with three of four wins by 20+ points, but Jaguars lost four of last five visits here. Four of Colts’ last five games went over the total. Jaguars are 3-0 scoring 20+ points, 0-5 when they score less than 20.


    Lions (3-5) @ Bears (5-3)— Lions fired their special teams coach Monday, so they’ve got issues in their building; Detroit was outrushed 304-100 in losing their last two games- Stafford was sacked 10 times Sunday, so their OL has problems, too. Lions are 12-16 in last 28 games as AU, 2-1 this year. Chicago beat cruddy QB’s (Jets/Bills) last two weeks; Bears are 3-1 at home this year, are 3-0 as HF, after being 1-6 n that role from ’15-’17. Detroit won nine of last ten series games, winning last three by 3-3-10 points; five of last six series games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Detroit won four of its last five visits here. Four of last five Chicago games went over total; over is 3-1 in Detroit’s road games.


    Cardinals (2-6) @ Chiefs (8-1)— Since 2000, Chiefs are 23rd NFL team to be favored by 17+ points; first 22 teams went 8-12-2 vs spread (they all won SU). KC is 9-1 vs spread this year, 3-1 as HF; only one of their wins (45-10 vs Cincy) was by more than 16 points. Chiefs scored 14 TD’s on their last 29 drives. Arizona has rookie QB, rookie coach; they’ve lost three games by 18+ points. Cardinals are 1-2 on road, losing 34-0 at Rams, 27-17 at Vikings- they won at SF. Chiefs are 8-3-1 in series; Arizona is 0-4-1 at Arrowhead, losing by 24-10-49-18 points. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-3-1 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 3-3-1. Three of last four Arizona games went over total; under is 4-2 in Chiefs’ last six games.


    Chargers (6-2) @ Raiders (1-7)— Chargers won their last five games; they’re 4-0 outside LA, after stopping Seattle inside 10-yard line on last drive Sunday. Under Lynn, LA is 3-1-1 as road favorites, 2-0 this year- they held last four opponents under 20 points. Raiders lost last four games; they gave up a while ago, allowing 42-34 points in last two games. Oakland is 1-2 at home, giving up 33-42-42 points (over 2-1). Raiders are 3-7-1 vs spread in last 11 games as home underdogs. Chargers won last three series games, beating Oakland 26-10 (-5.5) at home in Week 5, when they outgained Raiders 412-289; Bolts are 4-3 in their last seven visits here. Chargers changed kickers this week after missing three PAT’s in Seattle.


    Seahawks (4-4) @ Rams (8-1)- After facing Rodgers/Brees last two weeks, Rams are facing Seattle team that ran ball for 169 yards/game the last five weeks. Since ’14, Seahawks are 8-6-1 as AU, 1-1-1 this year. LA won first meeting this year 33-31 (-7) in Seattle in Week 5, despite going -2 in turnovers; Rams won five of last seven series games. Seahawks lost three of last four road series games, winning here 16-10 LY. Rams lost for first time LW; they were 3-1 vs spread coming off loss LY. LA is 4-0 at home, 3-1 as HF, winning by 34-12-7-2 points; under McVay, LA is 6-4 as HF. Three of Rams’ last four games, six of last seven Seattle games stayed under the total. Rams haven’t had their bye yet; Seattle had theirs two weeks ago, could be fresher.


    Cowboys (3-5) @ Eagles (4-4)— Home side lost eight of last ten series games; Dallas won four of last five visits here. Teams split season series each of last five years. Short week for Dallas team that lost three of its last four games; Cowboys are 3-0 when they score 20+ points, 0-5 when they don’t- they fired OL coach last week and still ran ball for only 72 yards in dismal home loss Monday (Prescott’s INT in red zone didn’t help). Dallas is 1-4 in last five games as road dogs. Eagles are 2-2 at home this year, 0-3 as HF; all four games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Philly is 2-4 vs spread in last six post-bye games- they’re 2-3 in last five games, but blew double digit leads in two of the losses. All four Dallas road games this season stayed under total.


    Monday
    Giants (1-7) @ 49ers (2-7)— Niners’ QB Mullens had great debut LW in 34-3 win over Oakland, averaging 11.9 yards/pass attempt; 49ers scored 27+ points in five of their last eight games, are 2-2 at home- they’re 4-10 in last 14 games as HF. Giants lost their last five games (2-3 vs spread); they ran ball for 61-37 yards in last two games. NY was outscored 41-12 in first half of last three games; they’re 11 of last 47 on 3rd down. Giants are 1-3 on road this year but covered last three away tilts; they’re 7-4 in last 11 games as road dogs. Teams split last six series games; Giants are 3-2 in last five visits here. Big Blue is 1-3 in last four post-bye games. 49ers played on Thursday LW, so both teams come into this game well-rested.
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  11. #486  
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    By: Brandon DuBreuil




    NO GREEN FOR CINCY


    Reports out of Cincinnati are that A.J. Green won’t need surgery on his foot but that he will miss at least two weeks, which includes Week 10 where the 5-3 Bengals host the Saints and Week 11 at Baltimore. This is terrible news for Cincy fans and Green backers, but Tyler Boyd owners must be licking their chops.


    Boyd has been one of the biggest surprise players of the season with 49 catches for 620 yards and five touchdowns on 66 targets and is coming off one of his best games of the season where he posted a 9-138-1 line on Tampa Bay in Week 8. Andy Dalton will have to rely on him heavily over the next two weeks but there is some concern that Boyd might not be as productive when opponents shadow him like a WR1 — which they’re going to do without Green on the field. For that reason, we’re going to stay away from his receiving totals and instead back him to get into the end zone. Boyd has five touchdowns in the six games where he has received seven or more targets so far this season and we like him to get at least that many looks against the Saints. Take Boyd to score a touchdown at any time at home against a Saints pass defense that ranks 29th in DVOA.




    MICHEL’S RETURN


    Reports out of New England late on Monday are that running back Sony Michel is set to return this week at Tennessee, assuming he doesn’t have any setbacks throughout the week. Michel has missed the last two weeks after being knocked out of the Patriots’ win at Chicago and, although New England has been able to win without him, the offense just hasn’t been the same.


    Two weeks ago in Buffalo, New England was unable to score a touchdown until the fourth quarter and on Sunday the offense stalled until Cordarrelle Patterson was able to gain some chunks as a running back in the second half. Michel’s presence can’t be understated: His ability to gain significant yards on first down forces opponents to respect the run, which in turn opens up receivers for Tom Brady. Assuming he does return in Week 10, bettors can expect a lot of carries which will lead to a lot of yards against a mediocre Titans rush defense that is ranked 17th in DVOA and is giving up 112.3 rushing yards per game. Take the Over on Michel’s rushing yards total.




    SURGERY FOR GERONIMO?


    Packers coach Mike McCarthy told the media on Monday that Geronimo Allison has a “significant” core muscle injury after the receiver visited a specialist in Philadelphia. It would appear that surgery is on the horizon for Allison. For Green Bay, this means that its receiving corps will look much like it did on Sunday night in New England with Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the perimeters and Randall Cobb in the slot.


    You know what you’re getting with Adams (stud) and Cobb (average) but MVS is a bit more of a mystery. He has two huge yardage performances over the last three weeks on nearly identical lines of three catches for 103 yards and three catches for 101 yards (both on six targets) with a touchdown sandwiched between. Against New England, MVS made two great catches in the third quarter which likely went a long way in gaining Aaron Rodgers’ confidence. This week, the rookie out of South Florida is in a great spot in a home game at Lambeau against a Miami defense that is ranked 24th in pass defense DVOA. We expect Rodgers to give him 7-9 targets which should be plenty to get him a chunk of yards. Take the Over on his receiving yards total.




    CARSON BANGED UP


    Seattle’s Chris Carson won’t “do much” at practice this week, at least according to coach Peter Carroll, after the running back hurt his thigh in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers and was seen with his leg wrapped after the game. Mike Davis got the bulk of the work after Carson (eight carries for 40 yards) left the game and finished with an unimpressive 62 yards on 15 carries.


    Regardless of what happens in practice this week or who suits up at running back, the Seahawks’ backfield is one to avoid in Week 10 as they visit the Rams. Yes, Seattle runs the ball more than any team in the league but that won’t happen on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. The Seahawks will try to establish the run early but won’t be able to keep handing it off after Jared Goff and the Rams get up by double digits. Carson had success against the Rams a month ago but that was in Seattle and while healthy. We just don’t see Seattle running backs getting the volume they need to succeed on Sunday and we’re taking the Under on the rushing yards total for Carson (or Davis if he gets the start).




    WASHINGTON WOES


    You’d be tough pressed to find a team that had a worse day than Washington on Sunday as it suffered multiple devastating injuries in addition to getting blown out at home by the lowly Falcons. Washington confirmed on Monday that left guard Shawn Lauvao, right guard Brandon Scherff, and wide receiver Paul Richardson are all out for the season after injuries sustained in Week 9.


    This news affects the offense in numerous negative ways but no one is likely hit harder than Adrian Peterson. Washington’s offense has been built on pounding the ball with AP and winning the time-possession game and it’s going to be very hard to do that down two starters on the offensive line. On Sunday, Peterson was only able to rack 17 yards on nine carries as Washington had to use all eight of its active offensive linemen because of injuries. It didn’t help his cause that Washington fell behind 21-7 in the first half, but that could happen against this week as Washington visits Tampa Bay and its quick-strike passing game that is similar to Atlanta’s offensive strategy. AP’s stock is trending way down for the rest of the season and we’re taking the Under on his rushing yards total in Week 10.
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  12. #487  
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    By: Brandon DuBreuil




    DEZ HEADING TO NOLA?


    Reports late on Tuesday were that Dez Bryant and the New Orleans Saints were in negations for a contract after the team liked what it saw from his workout. At this point, it would be a shock for Bryant to turn down any kind of deal, especially one that allowed him to play with Drew Brees on a Super Bowl contender, but stranger things have happened.


    Assuming Bryant signs on Wednesday he’d likely be a healthy scratch for New Orleans’ Week 11 game at Cincinnati as there just isn’t enough time for him to learn the offense between now and Sunday. Once he’s up to speed with the offense, Bryant would slide into the WR3 role alongside Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith. Bryant isn’t going to affect Thomas’ production moving forward, and likely not Smith’s, but he could carve out a role for himself simply because he’s playing in a New Orleans’ offense with one of the greatest quarterbacks of our generation. If Dez is active in Week 10, we recommend passing on his prop bets but here’s one note of interest for the near future: New Orleans visits Dallas in a primetime game on November 29th. Get your popcorn ready.




    MULLENS GETS MONDAY NIGHT


    Coach Kyle Shanahan announced on Tuesday that quarterback Nick Mullens will start against the Giants in Week 10, regardless of C.J. Beathard’s health. This was expected but it’s now official after Mullens lit up the Raiders for three touchdowns in the first half of his first career start last week. This week, he gets the primetime lights again as 49ers host the Giants on Monday Night Football.


    Mullens looked great in his debut but let’s take it with a grain of salt as it was against Oakland and its league-worst pass defense in DVOA. He gets another soft matchup on paper this week, however, as the Giants rank 27th using the same metric. Let’s not forget that the G-Men are basically tanking after trading away two defensive starters just a couple of weeks ago. Offensively, however, the Giants are still uber-talented at all skill positions and veteran Eli Manning will have had an extra week to prepare for a middle-of-the-pack San Francisco defense. We expect lots of points in this one and, with a total currently set at 44, we recommend jumping on the Over before it gets bet up.




    STATUS QUO IN BIG D


    Speaking after their ugly loss to the mediocre Titans on Monday Night Football, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said coach Jason Garrett will not be replaced midseason and that Dak Prescott is the quarterback of the future and that “he’s going to get extended”. His comments about Prescott aren’t surprising as Dallas has no other choice but to stick with Prescott for the time being (and we’ll see about that contract extension after the draft). But Tuesday seemed like the perfect day to fire Garrett with the 3-5 Cowboys severely underperforming.


    Dallas travels to Philadelphia in Week 10 to take on the Super Bowl champs in another primetime game on Sunday Night Football. The line opened at Eagles -5.5 and has since been bet up to -6.5, which seems like a spread that is way too big for a divisional matchup between these two rivals, but it reflects the current state of the Cowboys. Dallas is traveling on a short week and will be without defensive leader Sean Lee who will miss some time after aggravating his hamstring injury. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is coming off its bye and welcomes star receiver Golden Tate to its offense. Lay the 6.5 with Eagles as things are going to get worse before they get better in Dallas.




    DUKE’S ALIVE!


    As it turns out, all Duke Johnson Jr. needed to get his season off life support was for the Browns to fire their head coach and their offensive coordinator. His fantasy owners have been waiting for the pass-catching back to get involved in the offense and it happened in a big way in Week 9 as he led the Browns in targets with nine, catching all of them and turning them into 78 yards and two touchdowns. Not bad for a guy who had 20 total catches on the season before last week.


    In Week 10, Johnson is set up in a prime spot to once again see a lot of targets out of the backfield as the Atlanta Falcons and their high-flying offense visit Cleveland. The Falcons are going to put up points — they rank eighth in the league with 28.5 points per game and have scored 30 or more in five of eight games so far this season. But they’re also going to give up a lot of points with a defense that ranks 30th in DVOA and is allowing 28.2 points per game. This game has a total currently set at 50.5 and there should be lots of opportunities for Johnson to use his receiving skills out of the backfield. Take the Over on his receptions total.




    DOYLE RULES! (JUST NOT THIS WEEK)


    This didn’t get much coverage last week with Indianapolis on its bye, but Jack Doyle returned in Week 8 after missing five weeks. Quarterback Andrew Luck was certainly happy to have his top tight end back on the field as he targeted Doyle seven times, resulting in six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. Eric Ebron was solid in Doyle’s absence and might continue to be a factor down the stretch, but Doyle is the Colts’ clear-cut No. 1 tight end when healthy.


    Indy comes out of its bye by hosting the Jaguars on Sunday afternoon in a game where the Colts are actually favored by three (imagine what this line would’ve been in the preseason). The Jags are in rough shape, but they’ve been very tough on tight ends so far this season, giving up an average of 3.5 catches for 41.6 yards. Even with a ton of injuries to their secondary, they managed to limit Zach Ertz to four catches and 26 yards the last time they took to the field. The Jags also held Rob Gronkowski to two catches for 15 yards back in Week 2. We like Doyle’s outlook for the rest of the season, but we recommend fading him this week as the Jags blanket opposing tight ends. Take the Under on his receiving yards total.
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    Tech Trends - Week 10
    Bruce Marshall


    Thursday, Nov. 8


    CAROLINA at PITTSBURGH (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Cam has covered last 2 as dog TY and Panthers now 13-5 in dog role since 2015. Steel has covered four straight TY but Tomlin just 2-5 last 7 as Heinz Field chalk. Steel “over” 5-1 last six at home.
    Tech Edge: Panthers and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.




    Sunday, Nov. 11


    BUFFALO at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Bills on 7-3 “under” run since late 2017. They’ve also failed to cover last 2 at Jets or 3 of last 4 in series. Jets 9-3-1 vs. line since late 2016 at MetLife.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.




    ATLANTA at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Falcs just 3-8 last 11 as reg season visitor, also "over' 6-2 this season. Browns 1-3 last 4 vs. line.
    Tech Edge: "Over," based on “totals” trends.




    NEW ORLEANS at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Saints have covered last 5 away since late 2017. Also now on 16-5 spread run away from Superdome. Cincy no covers last three TY.
    Tech Edge: Saints, based on recent trends.




    WASHINGTON at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Jay Gruden on 7-4 spread run since late LY, he’s also “under” 8-3 last 11 after extended “over” run prior. Bucs however “over” 8-1 last 9 since late 2017. Tampa Bay also on 1-5 spread skid.
    Tech Edge: Redskins and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.




    NEW ENGLAND at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Belichick has covered 5 of last 6 TY and last two away after dropping previous 3 and 4 of 5 away from Gillette. Note that in front of bye week, Pats have won and covered last six., Titans “under” 9-5 since late 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and Pats, based on “totals” and team trends.




    JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Jags no wins or covers last four TY, while Indy has won and covered last two. Jags however have covered last six meetings.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on recent trends.




    DETROIT at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Bears 3-0 as home chalk TY. “Unders” 4-1 last five meetings.
    Tech Edge: Bears and "under," based on recent trends.




    ARIZONA at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
    Big Red has only dropped 1 of last 6 vs. line TY (4-1-1 vs. points). Cards however only 2-5-1 last 8 as road dog. Andy Reid 12-1 vs. line last 13 in reg season.
    Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on team trends.




    L.A. CHARGERS at OAKLAND (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
    Raiders 2-6 vs. line TY, 4-15-3 last 22 on board since early 2017. Bolts 12-4 vs. spread last 16 at Oakland. “Unders” 5-1 last six in series.
    Tech Edge: Chargers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.




    MIAMI at GREEN BAY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Pack 1-2 as Lambeau chalk TY and “over” 23-8 since late 2016 season.
    Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.




    SEATTLE at L.A. RAMS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
    Note dog team 6-1 vs. points last 7 meetings. Rams only 1 cover last six TY and just 5 covers last 14 overall (5-8-1). Pete Carroll on 15-7-1 run as dog dating back to 2012.
    Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team and series trends.




    DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Cowboys 1-3 vs. line away TY, also on 13-4 “under” run since mid 2017. Birds no covers last three at Linc after much success prior under Pederson.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.




    Monday, Nov. 12


    N.Y. GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)

    Eli on 11-4 “under” run since mid 2017.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on "totals”trends
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  14. #489  
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    THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 8
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



    CAR at PIT 08:20 PM


    CAR +3.5


    U 50.5
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    Big Ben's 5 TDs key Steelers' TNF rout
    November 8, 2018
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    PITTSBURGH (AP) The Pittsburgh Steelers aren't playing like a team missing Le'Veon Bell.


    Ben Roethlisberger threw for 328 yards and five touchdowns, James Conner ran for 65 yards and a score before leaving late with a possible concussion and the Steelers pounded the Carolina Panthers 52-21 on Thursday night for their fifth straight victory.


    Antonio Brown added eight receptions for 96 yards - including a 53-yard touchdown in the second quarter - to cap an eventful day that began with the star wide receiver being cited for reckless driving after police clocked Brown's Porsche driving over 100 mph down a busy highway in the northern city suburbs.


    While Bell - a three-time Pro Bowl running back who still hasn't signed his one-year franchise tender - tweeted his thoughts as he watched on television, the Steelers (6-2-1) rolled on without him. Bell has until next Tuesday to sign a contract if he wants to play this season. His teammates have long since tired of talking about Bell's status and at this point, the AFC North leaders appear to be doing just fine on their own.


    Carolina not so much.


    The Panthers (6-3) saw their three-game winning streak come to an abrupt halt in a city where they've never won. Carolina fell to 0-4 all-time in Pittsburgh and was never really in it after the Steelers scored 21 points in the game's first 11 minutes.


    Cam Newton completed 23 of 29 for 193 yards and a pair of flips to Christian McCaffrey that the second-year running back turned into scores but Newton's showdown with Roethlisberger never materialized. The Steelers sacked Newton five times and rarely let him get comfortable.


    Newton didn't help matters when he threw off his back foot out of the Carolina end zone while trying to avoid getting sacked in the first quarter. Pittsburgh linebacker Vince Williams raced under the floater and returned it 17 yards for a touchdown to give the Steelers a 14-7 lead they never came close to relinquishing.


    McCaffrey finished with 138 yards total offense (77 yards rushing, 61 yards receiving) and accounted for all three Panther scores but it wasn't nearly enough.


    Pittsburgh's 52 points matched the most ever surrendered by the Panthers in franchise history. Carolina allowed the same total in a 52-9 loss to Oakland on Dec. 24, 2000.


    The Steelers held the 36-year-old Roethlisberger out of practice during the short week in an effort to keep him fresh. Roethlisberger responded with one of the finest performances of his career, completing 22 of 25 passes while spreading the ball to nine different players on his way to a perfect quarterback rating of 158.3.


    Roethlisberger's first pass turned into a 75-yard touchdown pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster on Pittsburgh's first offensive snap and his last came on a 6-yard toss to rookie Jaylen Samuels on the first play of the fourth quarter.


    In between he did a little bit of everything. Roethlisberger even showed off his legs, scrambling for 18 yards in the third quarter on a play that ended with Carolina safety Eric Reid getting ejected for targeting after Reid appeared to dive at Roethlisberger's head as the quarterback attempted to slide.


    Reed, signed by Carolina in September six months after filing a grievance alleging collusion by the NFL to prevent teams from signing him because of his participation in racial injustice protests during the national anthem alongside former San Francisco 49ers teammate Colin Kaepernick, went out to shake Roethlisberger's hand as a peace offering before making his way to the Carolina locker room.


    UP NEXT

    Panthers: Travel to Detroit on Nov. 18 to take on the Lions. Carolina is 6-2 all-time against Detroit.


    Steelers: Visit Jacksonville on Nov. 18. The Jaguars beat Pittsburgh twice on the road last season, including a 45-42 upset in the divisional round of the playoffs.
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  16. #491  
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    NFLNovember's Best Bets and Opinions


    DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


    11/08/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
    11/05/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
    11/04/2018 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00
    11/01/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00


    Totals..............9 - 16........35.00%.....-43.00




    ********************


    Best Bets For November


    DATE........................ATS..................U NITS....................O/U................UNITS..............TOTAL


    11/08/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00
    11/05/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................1 - 0...............+5.00..............-0.50
    11/04/2018..............3 - 4.................-7.00......................3 - 4...............-7.00...............-14.00
    11/01/2018..............0 - 1.................-5.50......................0 - 1...............-5.50...............-11.00


    Totals......................3 -7.................-23.50.....................4 - 6...............-12.50..............-36.50
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    Friday’s 6-pack

    QB’s who’ve thrown the most pick 6’s in their careers:


    31— Brett Favre


    28— Dan Marino


    27— Drew Brees, Peyton Manning


    23— Philip Rivers, Vinny Testaverde


    22— Eli Manning, Carson Palmer


    20— Kerry Collins, Steve DeBerg


    Quote of the Day
    “I don’t know what his plans are, but I would say that at this point, we expect him to come back next week. We know he’s back in Pittsburgh and so we’re hoping to have some communications with him over the weekend, and we’re kind of expecting he’ll be back next week.”
    Steelers’ owner Art Rooney, talking about Le’Veon Bell


    Friday’s quiz
    Which two colleges did Russell Wilson play football for?


    Thursday’s quiz
    Steve Kerr played his college basketball at Arizona.

    Wednesday’s quiz

    Craig Morton started in Super Bowls for Dallas and the Denver Broncos.




    **************************


    Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….


    13) ESPN’s Mark Jackson is much better as an analyst in a 2-man booth than a 3-man booth; he tells some terrific stories when he has more airtime.


    In 1986, Jackson led the nation in assists; one of his teammates (Walter Berry) won the Wooden Award, symbolic of the year’s best college player, so obviously St John’s must’ve had a damn good season (they went 31-5), but this was the year after Chris Mullin went to the NBA and apparently there were internal issues with the team.


    In their fifth game of the year, St John’s was nursing a late lead and Jackson was dribbling so he would get fouled, make foul shots and preserve the lead, but Berry wanted the team to give the ball to him so he could score more, and from that point on, from the end of the fifth game to the 36th game, Berry and Jackson never spoke again that season. You just never know.


    12) Monday night, Enes Kanter had 23 points, 24 rebounds off the bench for the Knicks, as well as seven assists. Kanter is the first NBA player since Charles Barkley in 1986 to have a 20-20 game, and also have 5+ assists, in a game he didn’t start.


    11) In the Atlanta Hawks’ arena, you can get your haircut during the game. Not sure why you would pay major bucks to watch an NBA game, then spend even more money to not watch the game while they cut your hair. Then again, I don’t have much hair to cut.


    10) Speaking of the Hawks, Atlanta coach Lloyd Pierce was a college teammate of Steve Nash in his playing days at Santa Clara.


    9) Kansas City Chiefs outscored opponents 93-20 on the first drive of each half; thats 18 drives for each team.


    8) Miami Dolphins are only NFL team that hasn’t scored a point on their first drive of a game this season: nine drives, 42 plays, 198 yards, no points. No bueno.


    Jets kicked only one FG on their first drive of a game, but they also gave up a defensive TD, so they’ve actually been outscored 7-3 on their game-opening drives.


    7) Minnesota Vikings are playing better recently; in their last three games, the Vikings scored TD’s on their first drive of the game, going 68-91-65 yards for those TD’s.


    6) Rich Gannon was working the Charger-Seahawk game Sunday; Sebastian Janikowski was kicking for Seattle. Way back in 2000, Janikowski’s rookie year in Oakland, Gannon was the first holder Janikowski had during preseason, but Gannon said he was so bad at holding, they told him to forget about it and make punter Shane Lechler the holder.


    5) Boise State is a home underdog to Fresno State tonight, first time the Broncos have been a underdog on the Blue Turf since 1999.


    4) Pittsburgh Steelers are only team in NFL with only one divisional game left. Everyone plays a divisional game in Week 17.


    3) Last time Alabama had a Senatorial election, Nick Saban got 19,000 write-in votes. If he ever somehow got elected, Saban would have to decline; quite a pay cut from the $8M a year Saban makes now to the $175,000 or however much a senator makes.


    2) How would you like to be the person who ran for assembly in Nevada, and lost to a dead guy?


    72-year old Dennis Hof owned a brothel that was featured on the HBO show Cathouse; he passed away October 16, but he still won an election Tuesday in Nevada’s 36th Assembly District against Democratic educator Lesia Romanov.


    1) Le’Veon Bell posted a couple of Tweets this week with the text upside down; not sure how or why he did that, but it does look pretty cool.


    If Bell doesn’t report to the Steelers by 4:00 Tuesday, he can’t play this year, so he won’t make any of his $14.55M salary and he defeats the purpose of his holdout. Hopefully he is getting good advice, but that doesn’t seem too likely, unless he just doesn’t want to play anymore
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    Week 10 Best Bets - Sides
    November 8, 2018
    By Bookmaker



    Week 10 NFL Best Bets – Sides


    My 4-0 ATS run with these best bet pieces came to a screeching halt last week as the New York Jets couldn't overcome a disastrous day by QB Sam Darnold (4 INT's) and a very sloppy field Miami to keep that game within a FG. Had we seen just a little bit more ball security from Darnold, who knows what the 7-point loss might have actually turned into for New York, but all you can do is stomach the loss and move onto the next week.


    Despite the loss last week, I'm coming back with a play involving a team from the AFC East again as this division continues to be run by Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots. That probably won't change until one (or both) end up retiring – and who knows how long it will be until that happens – but with three of the four AFC East teams out on the road this week, there is at least one of them that deserves to be bet against in my eyes.


    Odds per - Bookmaker.eu


    Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +6.5


    It is those New England Patriots that I'm betting against this week as they go out on the road for a non-division battle with the Titans. This is a rematch of a Divisional round playoff game a year ago when the Patriots did what was expected of them as rested two-TD playoff home favorites, beating Tennessee 35-14 en route to yet another Super Bowl appearance. The playoff revenge factor is something that should be considered here in favor of the Titans, but by no means should it be the lone basis for this play.


    New England has looked impressive in recent weeks as they've won six straight games after starting 1-2 SU, and have gone 5-1 ATS in the process. That lone ATS defeat came by the 'hook' in their epic SNF showdown with Kansas City, so stepping in front of this Patriots train is not something you want to do lightly right now. However, four of those six wins did come at home, and the other two – at Buffalo and at Chicago – weren't exactly stellar performances. Beating Buffalo these days is like a parent beating their 6-year old child in backyard hoops, and the Chicago win was aided by two special teams TD's for New England and they still nearly let a last play Hail Mary attempt tie the game.


    When you go even further back and look at New England's performances on the road, you'll see it's where their two outright defeats have come. There was the 11-point defeat in Jacksonville – who like Tennessee this week, was a home underdog with playoff revenge – and the 16-point beating taken in Detroit against former New England DC Matt Patricia's new squad. Titans HC Mike Vrabel may have never coached in New England, but he spent the majority of his playing career there, so there are some comparisons to be made there as well.


    So while the 2018 Patriots might look like the Patriots we've all seen be AFC Champions nearly every year for the past decade, and a 6-game winning streak is what many will hang their hat on with backing New England this week, their home/road splits in 2018 have been drastically different. And if you ask me, this spread is priced more like if New England was at home, rather than out on the road.


    New England averages a full yard per play less on offense on the road (5.2) compared to at home (6.2) and their defense gives up a a half-yard more per play (6) on the road compared to at home (5.5). Those defensive numbers include the fact that the best offensive team they've played at home has been the Kansas City Chiefs, while the best offensive team they've faced on the road would have to be the Chicago Bears. There aren't too many people out there that would say the Chiefs and Bears offenses are all that equal, so it goes to show you just how much of a disparity there has been for the Patriots this year depending on their location.


    On the flip side, Tennessee's last effort at home was an ugly 21-0 loss to Baltimore, but they've since responded with a chance to win against the Chargers over in London, and a solid 14-point victory over the Cowboys in Dallas last week on MNF. Defensively this Titans team is legit once again, and with their offense generally being a run-heavy, ball-control attack, it's not like they have to change their identity much to come up with the typical gameplan to beat New England with long drives and keeping Brady and company on the sidelines. It was what helped them establish a 7-0 first quarter lead against the Pats in the playoffs last year before the wheels fell off for Tennessee in the 2nd quarter, and it's a strategy I believe we will see the Titans employ, and employ well for the full 60 minutes this week at home.


    Finally, you've also got to take a peek at the betting percentages on this game offered up at VegasInsider.com and as of this writing it shows 80%+ of the action already on the Patriots. That was too be expected with this run New England is on and just how well they've done ATS-wise in the Belichick era, but this line briefly opened up at -7 before seeing the juice bounce around at -6.5 currently. You'd think that those -7's would show up again with 80%+ of the action going that way, but that hasn't been the case. That suggests to me that oddsmakers know they put a hefty “Patriots tax” on this line from the outset, placing inherent value on the Titans already.


    With Tennessee on a 5-1 ATS run at home and a 10-3 ATS run against opponents with a winning record, I'll gladly scoop up those extra few points of value here (buying it up to +7 is always an option as well), and back the home dog to keep this game within a FG at worst.
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    Saints at Bengals
    November 8, 2018
    By BetDSI



    by Tom Wilkinson


    NFL Betting Preview – Saints at Bengals



    You may think that Kansas City or New England is the hottest team in the league, but that is not the case, as the New Orleans Saints have won seven straight games and they handed the Los Angeles Rams their first loss of the season last week.


    The Saints get a tough road test this week, as they visit the Cincinnati Bengals who come into this game at 5-3 and they are a half game out of first place in the AFC North. Let’s look at this Week 10 matchup that can be seen on FOX on Sunday and NFL picks.


    Date and Time: Sunday, November 11, 1:00 p.m. ET
    Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
    NFL Odds at BetDSI: Saints -5.5, O/U 54
    Saints vs. Bengals TV Coverage: FOX



    The Saints are 7-1 this season and they have not had it easy of late, as the record of their last four opponents is 22-12-1. The Saints get another tough team this week, as the Bengals are 5-3. The question is which team will the Saints face? Will it be a Cincinnati team that rolled over Baltimore or the team that was blown out by Kansas City? The Bengals are probably fortunate to have won five games this season considering they rank last in the NFL in total defense.


    The Bengals have been shredded by the Falcons, Steelers, Chiefs and Buccaneers this season. That is a major concern, as the Bengals face Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense. The Saints are led by Drew Brees and he has a lot of weapons around him led by Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. The Saints also signed Dez Bryant on Wednesday.


    The Saints are rolling right now, but head coach Sean Payton said to the media that his team still needs to improve. “No halfway report cards or any of that. None of that. The point is though, and it is a good point, there’s eight games left. In other words, there is a ton of football left. There are a ton of things we have to improve on and we need to improve on, or it is going to hurt us later.”


    On the other side, the Bengals will be without their top offensive weapon, as A.J. Green is out. “Obviously it puts a lot of pressure on us as individuals because we know what he brings to the table,” tight end C.J. Uzomah said to the media, “I mean, he’s A.J. Green. A.J. Dream is what we call him — it’s a dream to have him on the team.” Cincinnati still has Joe Mixon to run the ball and Tyler Boyd has developed into a good receiver, so the Bengals can move the ball.


    Key Stats


    The Saints are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. The Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games.


    The Saints are 40-17-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.


    Looking at the total, the Under is 17-5 in the Bengals last 22 games in November. The Under is 34-16-1 in the Bengals last 51 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.


    Saints vs. Bengals Picks


    This is a huge letdown spot for the Saints after facing the Rams last week. The question is whether or not the Cincinnati defense can stop the New Orleans offense. If I had any confidence in the Bengals defense I would definitely take the Bengals, but I am leery because the defense is so bad. I do think the Bengals will be able to score on a poor New Orleans defense and I expect the Saints to put up their share of points, so I think the best play in this contest is to take the game over the total at BetDSI.


    Saints vs. Bengals Pick: Over 54 at BetDSI
    Saints vs. Bengals Score Prediction: Saints 34, Bengals 31
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    By: Brandon DuBreuil




    BIG BEN IN FOR A BIG NIGHT?


    Happy Thursday! Week 10 kicks off in Pittsburgh tonight and, as per tradition, we kick off today’s notes with a prop (or two). Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers are hosting Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers tonight in a matchup that features two quarterbacks that are playing great football. Both could put up some big numbers tonight in what should be a tight but high-scoring game (Pit -4, o/u 52), but we like Big Ben’s matchup might be a little more enticing.


    Roethlisberger is always on the cusp of having a huge game at home and under the bright lights, he’s even better. In 25 career primetime games at Heinz Field, Big Ben is 21-4, has averaged 284.2 passing yards, and has thrown 3.3 touchdowns to every interception. On Thursdays, he has a 6-0 record and has averaged 288.3 passing yards. The Panthers are hot but they aren’t a terrible matchup for quarterbacks, as they rank 14th as a defensive unit in DVOA but only 20th against the pass. Big Ben loves the bright lights and we’re backing him to go Over his passing yards total of 300.5.




    MAKE IT TWO WITH JUJU


    If Roethlisberger is going to have a big game through the air, chances are one of his receivers is going to have a nice night as well. We’re going to double down on the Steelers’ air attack and put some additional money behind JuJu Smith-Schuster. The second-year receiver out of USC has hit a bit of a dry spell after his torrid start to the season but there’s reason to believe a big performance is coming on TNF. First, he saw his targets get back on track last week with nine after he had just six two weeks ago against Cleveland. Second, Smith-Schuster is one of the most productive slot receivers in the league and the Panthers routinely get burned from the position. Through nine weeks, the Panthers have allowed slot receivers Adam Humphries, Russell Shepard, Tyler Boyd, and Cole Beasley to combine for 24 catches on 27 targets for 339 yards and three touchdowns. We expect JuJu to add his name to that list with a big night and we’re taking the Over 77.5 on his receiving yards total.




    DARNOLD RULED OUT


    New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday’s home game against Buffalo, leaving Josh McCown to start. Darnold was spotted in a walking boot on Wednesday and will now get to rest through the Jets’ Week 11 (or longer). Darnold has really struggled of late with two touchdowns and seven interceptions in his last three games so the break comes at a good time.


    McCown was the Jets’ starter last season until he broke his hand in Week 14 — that’s also the last time he saw the field in a regular-season game. McCown is 39 years old and a bit of a journeyman but at this point, he’s probably an upgrade at QB for the Jets. Darnold just isn’t ready yet and seems to be hitting the proverbial rookie wall. This week, however, McCown gets a tough matchup with a Buffalo pass defense that is ranked second in overall DVOA and third against the pass. The Bills held Mitch Trubisky to 135 passing yards last week and held Tom Brady out of the end zone two weeks ago. Last year, McCown threw for just 187 and 140 yards in two starts against Buffalo. We expect a similar number this week and we’re taking the Under on McCown’s passing yards total.




    FOURNETTE ON TRACK


    Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette practiced in full on Wednesday, putting him on track to return after a four-game absence. The Jaguars have struggled mightily without their star running back, losing four in a row and scoring just 11.5 points per game in the process.


    Fournette has a solid matchup in his return against a Colts defense that is allowing 94.9 yards per game to opposing backfields, but it’s unclear as to how he’ll be used. Jacksonville can’t afford to lose him again and giving him 18-20 touches in his first game back would increase his risk of re-injuring his hamstring. Jacksonville has Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon behind Fournette and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them ease Fournette back this week with 12-15 touches. We’re not fading Fournette completely because of his importance to the Jaguars’ offense, so for this week, we’re passing on his yards total and instead are backing him to score a touchdown at any time.




    BELICHICK VS BUTLER


    New England heads to Tennessee this week where one of the top storylines is how cornerback Malcolm Butler will fare against his old team. Yes, the same team that benched him for the entirety of Super Bowl 52. Something happened in Minnesota during Super Bowl week. It’s a bit of a surprise that in 2018 we still don’t know what happened, but Bill Belichick knows, and Tom Brady probably know as well, and it’ll be very interesting to see how they approach the game this weekend. We’re betting on them attacking Butler as much as possible.


    Butler has been a bust of a free-agent signing so far and has allowed a league-high 618 receiving yards to opposing wideouts on the season. Against the Patriots, he’ll do most of his coverage against Josh Gordon who is coming off a 5-130-1 line against Green Bay in what was his best game of the season. Gordon has been inconsistent in his Pats career (we missed badly on his Under last week) but this week he has an easy coverage matchup and we believe Belichick and Brady will be motivated to throw at Butler early and often. Take the Over for his receiving yards total.
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    Week 10 Best Bets - Totals
    November 8, 2018
    By Bookmaker



    Week 10 NFL Best Bets – Totals


    We weren't able to get there with the 'over' in the Steelers/Ravens rematch last week as the Ravens settled for too many short FG's early and the pace to cash an 'over' ticket could never really get there. Had the Ravens been able to score a game-tying TD late to force OT at 23-23, I may be singing a different tune today, but losses happen and you can't let them linger and affect your handicapping process going forward.


    So it's on to this week's betting board and there are quite a few total plays that appear quite attractive. However, I've isolated a single total option that I believe to be the best one of the bunch, so let's get right to it:


    Odds per - Bookmaker.eu


    Best Bet: Washington/Tampa Bay Under 51


    Backing 'unders' in Buccaneers games this year has been quite hazardous to one's bankroll with Tampa sporting a 7-1 O/U mark, but this matchup does set up to likely be a lower-scoring game for a variety of reasons.


    First off, Washington suffered multiple injuries on their O-line a week ago, as both starting G's Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao left and did not return. T Morgan Moses was banged up as well, with T Trend Williams still on the shelf. The first three of those names are listed as day-to-day on the current injury report so they could still end up suiting up on Sunday, but even if they do, they won't be at 100% and that spells trouble for QB Alex Smith and the time he may have in the pocket.


    Tampa's defense may not resemble anything of a stellar unit this year, but put them up against injured starters or less talented back-ups for the majority of the game and the Bucs pass rush should be able to cause plenty of chaos.


    Secondly, knowing their O-line is in shambles, Washington's going to have to go back to either running the ball a lot or playing that dink-and-dunk quick passing game that Smith has excelled at throughout his career. Getting the ball out of Smith's hands will be the ultimate goal, and that in turns means that the likelihood of those huge chunk plays happening – that have gashed Tampa all year – pretty slim.


    The Redskins haven't exactly been a big chunk offense as is this year, and with five straight games of putting up 23 or fewer points – including 20 or less the last three weeks – having the Redskins do their part in putting this game 'over' the number is going to be tough.


    On the flip side of things, Tampa's going to eventually realize that getting in these shootout type games is not their path to success. Granted, the ship has likely already sailed on the Bucs having a “successful” season, but when two of their three wins have come in the only two contests where they held their opponent to 23 or fewer points, you would hope that emphasizing strong defensive play would help turn this thing around.


    Turnovers by Tampa's offense has done their defense no favors, so protecting the ball is going to be critical again for Tampa this week, and with Washington coming into this week as one of the better turnover margin teams in the league (+7), you've got to figure that continues to be a point of emphasis for the Bucs.


    Finally, because the Bucs 'over' record has been so good this year and many of those 'overs' have been no doubters, the high side of this total was always going to attract plenty of money. VegasInsider.com shows about 75% of the money on this total on the high side, and yet unlike in past weeks when that type of action has forced a move, this week's number has basically stood pat at 51. Washington's 3-9 O/U run in their last 12 games likely has something to do with that, as does Tampa's 0-4 O/U mark at home after consecutive road tilts.


    This game should top out somewhere in the mid-to-high 40's when all is said and done, as long as a multitude of turnovers from either side don't continuously give the opposing offenses short fields to work with. Washington's on a 1-5 O/U run when facing a losing team, 1-4 O/U after scoring 14 or fewer points, while Tampa is actually 4-10 O/U in their last 14 at home.


    Going against the grain is something I've never been shy about doing, as this week I think that run of Tampa Bay 'overs' that the majority of bettors is counting on to continue comes to a grinding halt.
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    Week 10 Best Bets - Teasers
    November 8, 2018
    By BetOnline.ag



    NFL Week 10 Exotic Betting Options


    When I was writing the intro to last week's piece, I would have never guessed that I could essentially copy and paste the same intro a week later. But here we are, fresh off another teaser loss by a “measly half-point” as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the ones who victimized me this time around.


    Tampa's 14-point defeat wasn't enough to cover the +13.5 points I had teased them up to, as yet another example as to why it's the numbers and not the teams that are more important when playing teasers. Teasing teams through those key numbers of 3/7/10/14 are of the utmost importance overall, and while I was able to go through +7, +10, and even +13 with the Bucs last week, it still wasn't good enough.


    Hopefully this streak of losing teasers by a half-point ends at two, although, when you look out at the NFL betting board this week you can already see plenty of potential for it to happen again with a handful of spreads sitting in the -5 to -6.5 range currently. But being the glutton for punishment that I am, I'm back at it again this week as I try to get back in the winner's circle with these teased lines on a couple of home underdogs from the AFC North.


    Odds per - BetOnline.ag


    Week 10: Two-team, 7-point Teaser Best Bet
    Cleveland (+13) – Cincinnati (+12.5)



    The Atlanta Falcons were the half of last week's teaser that I did get right as they went into Washington and dismantled the Redskins from start to finish, but I'm not so confident they can have a repeat performance this week. The Falcons are in Cleveland to take on a Browns team that's trying to get back on track after some coaching changes a week ago, as Cleveland has once again become one of the teams that everyone loves to fade.


    The initial spread for this game opened up with Atlanta as a -4 favorite, but as the Falcons have won three in a row and appear to be making a strong playoff push right now, that positive support combined with the negative sentiments bettors tend to have with Cleveland has pushed the number all the way to -6 currently. A move like that makes it rather tempting to come back in on Cleveland, but in my eyes, the safer route to go is teasing the Browns up now as they try to end this four-game losing streak they are currently on.


    This is the first time all year that Atlanta has played on the road in consecutive games, and as a dome team, outdoors on the road in November hasn't exactly been a friend to the Falcons organization. Atlanta was 1-2 ATS on the road at outdoor venues from November on a year ago, and all three games were decided by a FG. Throw in their two road playoff games @ LA and @ Philly and you'll see that only their win against the Rams (26-13) was decided by more than five points, but that's still right on this week's teased number, and it's not like outdoors in L.A really has a “chilling” effect on opponents.


    Cleveland looked to be poised through the first half of the year to take those positive steps forward their fan base has been waiting years to see, but back-to-back losses by 15+ points has squashed much of that momentum. However, those two defeats came against the likes of Pittsburgh and Kansas City, no slouches offensively in their own right, and while Atlanta's offense is of a similar caliber, the Falcons defense is arguably the worst of the bunch.


    Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield has now had a full week of practice (along with one game) under his belt with new Browns OC Freddie Kitchens and we should see much more of a comfort level there this week. With Atlanta's defense ranking T30th in yards per play allowed (6.3), Mayfield and that Cleveland attack should find plenty of success again this week – they scored 21 on KC's 6.2 yards per play allowed defense last week – and then it becomes a matter of how tight the defense can hold things here. And as I said earlier, taking the +6 on the outright line is tempting, but given it's still the Browns, I have much more confidence in them keeping this game within 10 points at worst.


    On to the Bengals now, who are the benefactors of quite the scheduling spot overall. Cincinnati is coming off their bye week as having an extra week to prepare never hurts, but with New Orleans (another dome team) out on the road in November off their huge win over the Rams, it's hard not to expect a bit of a letdown from the Saints this week.


    Yet, just like we've seen with the Falcons spread, the Saints opening number of -4.5 has been bumped up all week to it's current range and could end up even higher by the time Sunday rolls around. A national audience saw New Orleans knock off the league's last remaining unbeaten team a week ago so there will be plenty of support on that basis alone, and it's probably inflated this line a bit too much already.


    Outside of potentially being without WR A.J Green, this situtational spot couldn't really set up any better for Cincinnati, and with two suspect defense squaring off, this should easily be a one-possession game either way. The Bengals are on a 4-1 ATS run overall against a winning team, and with a 9-2 ATS run at home going against a winning road team, taking them on the spread is a possibility.
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  23. #498  
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    Jets QB McCown to start vs. Bills
    November 8, 2018
    By The Associated Press



    FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) Josh McCown is going from mentor to starter this week for the New York Jets.


    The 39-year-old quarterback will be under center Sunday against the Buffalo Bills in place of injured rookie Sam Darnold, who's sidelined with a strained right foot.


    ''I'm ready to rule him out as a starter for this week,'' coach Todd Bowles said of Darnold on Thursday. ''I don't know if I'll rule him out yet for the game.''


    That means Darnold still could potentially be the No. 2 quarterback on Sunday. If not, Davis Webb would be promoted from the practice squad to serve as McCown's backup.


    Either way, the starting job is McCown's - at least for this week.


    ''I'm extremely comfortable with him,'' Bowles said. ''We talk all the time. He understands the game and the team, and we see things the same way. So I'm comfortable.''


    McCown has not taken a snap in a regular-season game this season as the Jets have focused on developing Darnold. The No. 3 overall pick won the job out of training camp, but was injured during New York's 13-6 loss at Miami last Sunday.


    McCown was the Jets' starter last season and had a career year before being sidelined the last three games with a broken left hand. Since the summer, McCown has spoken highly of Darnold and expressed excitement about being able to have a hand in the youngster's development.


    Darnold has received lots of advice and tips from McCown on the sideline and practice field. Now, he'll have no choice but to watch.


    ''I say it all the time: That's why we do this, to play,'' McCown said Wednesday when Darnold's injury was announced. ''If that's the case, you're torn because your friend and a teammate, it means he can't go. In that regard, I don't wish that on anybody, but at the same time as a professional, as a backup quarterback you have to serve your team in that role and go in and play winning football.


    ''That's what's fun, that's what you look forward to and that's why you play this game. And, we'll go out and compete.''


    The Jets are ranked 29th in overall offense, including 28th in the passing game. Some of the struggles can be attributed to the inexperience of Darnold, who has an NFL-leading 14 interceptions. During New York's current three-game losing streak, the rookie has thrown two touchdown passes and seven INTs.


    So, some might consider the injury a blessing in disguise. It allows Darnold to take a breather and give McCown a chance to perhaps get the offense back on track.


    ''Obviously, Josh has played a long time in this league,'' wide receiver Jermaine Kearse said. ''So throughout the weeks, he sees things a lot quicker. Just the mental aspects, he's a lot further, just with his experience and being in the league. So, him just being able to see things a lot quicker, you know, the tempo kind of picked up a little bit.''


    Bowles made it clear, however, that this is no long-term solution. When Darnold is healthy, he'll step right back into the starting role.


    ''Yeah,'' Bowles said, ''he's our quarterback.''


    Even if McCown is playing well when Darnold is fully healthy?


    ''Sam is our quarterback,'' Bowles answered.


    Bowles was then asked why that would automatically be the case with Darnold.


    ''Because he's our starter and he won the job,'' the coach said. ''I feel comfortable with him in there and I feel comfortable with Josh in there.''


    While Darnold is the easy target and he has shouldered the blame for the struggles on offense, the Jets have several other culprits. Center Spencer Long has dealt with a finger injury that has led to several wayward snaps out of the shotgun, disrupting the timing of plays. Wide receivers Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson have been dealing with ankle injuries, and there have been blown plays and dropped passes by several players.


    ''Like I've said, we didn't play well as an offense,'' Bowles said. ''He didn't play well last game, but there's a couple people that have had bad games here and there, so we go from there.''


    Offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates has taken some heat, as well. The Jets are 18th in points with 198 and have scored just 17 touchdowns on offense. They also rank 30th in the league in first-down success (15.8 percent) and third-down conversions (30.8 percent).


    ''We have to score more points and that's on me,'' Bates said. ''I need to put our players in better positions to be successful, need to put our players in better position to score touchdowns and that's my responsibility. We have to score points in this league to win football games.''


    NOTES: CB Trumaine Johnson was a full participant at practice for the first time in more than a month after being sidelined with an injured right quadriceps. He's planning to play Sunday. ''Man, it's been a month and a couple days, so I'm definitely ready,'' he said. ''Just sitting out there supporting the team and my teammates is a different feeling, but I'm anxious to get back out there.'' ... Long (knee/finger), Anderson (ankle), Enunwa (ankle), TE Neal Sterling (concussion) and NT Steve McLendon (ankle) didn't practice. ... LG James Carpenter (shoulder) was limited.




    ************************




    Mack, Robinson set to return to Bears
    November 8, 2018
    By The Associated Press



    LAKE FOREST, Ill. (AP) Two-time All-Pro pass rusher Khalil Mack and top receiver Allen Robinson look as if they're just about ready to return after missing the Chicago Bears' past two games because of injuries.


    Both players practiced without limitations Thursday for the second consecutive day.


    The NFC North-leading Bears hope to have them back in the lineup against the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field on Sunday.


    ''These are strange deals because, literally, as you're going through it (you're) trying to figure out where they're at on a day-to-day basis,'' coach Matt Nagy said Thursday. ''Where are you at? Can you go 100 percent? Can you not? How do you feel? And we need to take that into consideration and discuss that, which leads up to game time and then how much, if so.''


    Robinson sent strong signals that he intends to play, saying he's ''100 percent'' after a groin injury kept him from playing in victories over the struggling New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. He has 25 catches for 285 and two touchdowns in six games after signing a three-year contract with Chicago in March.


    Robinson missed just about all of last season with Jacksonville after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee early in the opener. He was brought along slowly in the preseason as he worked his way back while trying to learn a new system and develop a rapport with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.


    ''I'm feeling great, and I'm definitely anxious to get back out there,'' Robinson said. ''It's been a tough couple weeks, just having to watch the game from the sideline, so I'm excited.''


    Mack, who did not make himself available for comment, got off to a huge start with the Bears following a trade from Oakland just before the opener. He had five sacks and four forced fumbles through the first four games. But he suffered an ankle injury early in an overtime loss at Miami on Oct. 14 and was largely a nonfactor the following week when New England beat Chicago at Soldier Field.


    Mack had not missed a game since Oakland drafted him with the fifth overall pick in 2014, before sitting out the past two. And he still was adjusting to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's system even though he sure looked dominant before he got hurt.


    ''He didn't practice much the two weeks he's missed ... so he's not where he needs to be or where we want him to be,'' Fangio said. ''But he's certainly prepared enough to go out there and play if his ankle will let him.''
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  24. #499  
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    Top Total Plays - Week 10
    by Kyle Markus

    The “over” hit on “Thursday Night Football,” continuing a yearlong trend of high scores. The rest of the Week 10 games will be held this weekend, and it will be interesting to see how many of them continue the offensive dominance we have seen so often to this point.

    The oddsmakers are well aware of what is going on and have gradually ticked up the scoring totals. Even so, the offensive fireworks have continued and the “over” has been the right call the majority of the time. Here are some of the best choices on total plays in Week 10 of the NFL season:

    The Buffalo Bills’ offense is historically inept, and it lived down to that billing last week against the Bears. It was so bad that Chicago put up a bunch of easy scores and the “over” hit. The Bills are facing off with the New York Jets on Sunday and the scoring total is at a microscopic 36.5 points. Even that is too high as these teams are going to put the sport back a couple decades with their effort. Take the “under” in this one.

    The New Orleans Saints are hitting the road to face the Cincinnati Bengals. Both offenses are high-powered and the oddsmakers have put the scoring total at 54 points. New Orleans is usually not quite as explosive on the road, and the Bengals are missing star receiver A.J. Green. Those two factors should keep this game “under” the scoring total.

    The Chicago Bears offense has been impressive lately, and so has their defense. The Bears are hosting the Detroit Lions and the total is only 44 points. That number looks way too low. Both teams have the capability to put up points, so bang the “over” in this one. This is looking like one of the best bets of the week.

    The Jacksonville Jaguars have not been as dominant defensively this season as expected, and their scoring total against the Indianapolis Colts is listed at 46.5 points. Colts star quarterback Andrew Luck has been great lately but look for Jacksonville to step up in this matchup. This one is going to be lower-scoring than expected, and roll with the “under.”

    The Los Angeles Chargers are going to be double digit favorites on the road against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL and have a Swiss Cheese defense. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is going to light it up in this one. The Raiders will throw a lot late as they try to come back and a score in the fourth quarter will help the “over” hit in this matchup.
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    Vegas Money Moves - Week 10
    November 9, 2018
    By Micah Roberts



    After three straight weeks of losing to the NFL, Nevada sports books know exactly what teams they have to beat down in Week 10 action to halt the losing.


    "Another week of fun," laughed CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "You can tell just by the betting patterns this week that the public is dialed in on five teams and the week is basically going to come down to how we fare in those games. We're going to either do extremely well or get smoked. It won't be one of those Sunday's where we grind out a 5-to-6 percent win."


    The weighted five-team public parlay, something that has sent the books reeling the past three weeks now comes with more cash behind it. The public is flush with cash right now and they're content on riding the hot streak and pressing rather than socking some away for Black Friday shopping.


    "They're all short favorites and a couple are on the road," Simbal said of the public plays. "They like Atlanta (-6 at Cleveland), the Saints (-5.5 at Cincinnati), New England (-6.5 at Tennessee), the Bears (-6.5 vs Lions), and Eagles (-7 vs. Cowboys)."


    Those same teams are also tilting the scales at William Hill's sports books across the country. The Falcons have 96 percent of the tickets written in that game, the Saints have 85 percent, The Patriots have 93 percent, the Bears have 84 percent and the Eagles have 86 percent. That is a collective effort by the masses to crush the books again, this time paying at 20-to-1 odds from a five-teamer. I love it. Instead of a $50 parlay like last week, they come with a $100 parlay. The action should be huge everywhere.


    "Compounding our risk on those games is that we've got sharp money laying the Eagles as well," Simbal said. "They laid -6, -6.5 and we're at -7 (-120) now."


    The Cowboys have lost all four road games and last two overall with weak offensive performances while the Eagles come off a bye fluttering with so many questions at 4-4, covering just three times. The Cowboys average road score has been 13-19 and the total for this game is at 43.5. All four of the Eagles home games have stayed Under an all four of the Cowboys road games have also stayed Under.


    That was the only game where the sharps piled on with the public. Simbal said he did get some help from the wise-guys on one of the big public games to balance out their liability.


    "We did get some Bengals money, and I'm happy about that," he said. "They took +5.5 so we didn't have to make that move to -6."


    CG Tech books have the only Saints -5 number while most others are -5.5 with the exception of MGM books who are -4.5, a certain sign they have some heavy Bengals action as well. Bengals WR A.J. Green is expected to miss the game with a foot injury and new Saints WR Dez Bryant also won't play.


    "They also bet the Under in that game as well," said Simbal. "We went from 54 down to 53.5." The high number in town is Station Casinos at 54.5, a sign that they're already in parlay protection mode after being peppered by them the last three weeks, maybe more than most books because of their clientele of locals on the outskirts of Las Vegas.


    "We also got some sharp Cardinals action at +17 and +16.5, as well as the Under (50)," said Simbal who now has the Chiefs as 16-point favorites with a total at 49.5.


    The Chiefs have been one of those popular public teams all season due to being an NFL-best 8-1 ATS. as well as scoring 36 ppg, but the large spread scared most away.


    "They laid the Bucs -2.5 and also bet them on the money-line early at -130," Simbal said. CG books have the money-line all the way up to -150. The Wynn and Westgate have the highest number at -160. The early move was spurred by the Redskins being without Pro Bowl tackle Trent Williams, as well as RB Chris Thompson and deep threat WR Paul Richardson. The Bucs defense allows 414 ypg and 34 ppg and they have the worst turnover margin (-15) in the league also. It should be a fun game. The totals sits at 50.5 at CG books.


    "Jacksonville was played early by a respected bettor at +3.5 and also at +3.5 (-120)," said Simbal who now has the Colts -3 (EVEN) and a total at 46.5. All of Las Vegas is at -3 EV with the exception of the South Point who are at -2.5 because they use exclusively flat numbers. They're a good indicator on what will happen in the market so if you like the Colts, wait a bit, and if you like Jacksonville get the +3 and lay the -120 happily.


    One other game with some large action was the Seattle money taking +10 and also Under 51. CG books have the Rams -9.5 and the total at 50.5. The Rams are currently on a 1-5 ATS run showing they may be a bit overrated. The public still loves the Rams, but they just can't trust them to cash so they stay off it.


    We'll see how this all plays out Sunday. The public has the hot hand, but the edge always circles back to the house.
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