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  1. #1 Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more ! 
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    Trends to Watch - September
    August 30, 2018
    By Marc Lawrence



    HOME TEAMS


    Keep an eye on (Good): Off another sensational NFL Preseason Baltimore is an excellent home team this month at 30-17 ATS and have Buffalo (9/9) and Denver two weeks in the land of crab cakes.


    You might think Buffalo's best home month is December, but it's not. They are strong in September at 34-22 ATS but only have one homer, against the L.A. Chargers on Sept. 16th.


    Detroit is a solid 30-19 ATS in the Motor City and has the Jets on the first Monday Night game of the season and Dallas on the third Sunday of the month (9/23). San Francisco is thought to be revitalized this season and is 28-17 ATS this month in their building, but they have a nasty opening slate and just the Lions (9/16) at home early.


    Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona has three games in Glendale to start the season with the Redskins (9/9), Bears (9/23) and Seahawks (9/30) and we will find out right away if the oddsmaker 5.5 win total is correct.


    Carolina will be tested right off the bat with it's poor 16-24 home spread record, with Dallas there on Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 3. Speaking of the Bengals, the days of "The Jungle" are long gone with a 17-29 ATS record. And it might not improve with Baltimore in Cincy for the second Thursday night affair.


    After playing in Arizona in their season lid-lifter, Washington hosts Indianapolis and Green Bay the next weeks trying to better 18-31 ATS home mark.


    AWAY TEAMS

    Keep an eye on (Good): For the first three months of the season, Dallas is an exceptional away club and that starts with a 33-18 ATS mark in September. Given their past, going to Carolina (9/9) or Seattle two weeks later would not imposing for the Cowboys.


    Denver is none too shabby either at 28-18 ATS and they get tested only once, at Baltimore on the 23rd. Fellow AFC West partner Kansas City also fits this quality profile at 34-19 ATS. One concern for the Chiefs starting the season is at the Chargers and at the Steelers for first-time starter Patrick Mahomes.


    Bad: It's been a while since the Rams were this good after last season. They are a horrific 16-32 ATS in the road whites and they play the late game in Oakland on MNF, before a three-game homestand.


    Keep an eye on (Bad): New coach, new system, but same old results for Chicago away from the Windy City? The Bears are 19-29 ATS on the road and go to the not so frozen tundra at Lambeau Field on the 9th and to the red-hot Arizona desert on the 23rd.


    As good as Detroit is at home, that's basically home bad they are on the road at 19-31 ATS. At San Fran on a short week in Week 2 won't be easy and likely or will a trip to Big D on the 30th.


    Most years, Pittsburgh labors early and is an unsightly 17-31 ATS on the road. They are often not covering as away favorites and let's see how they do in that role at Cleveland in Week 1 and on the third week of MNF at Tampa Bay.


    FAVORITES


    Keep an eye on (Good): Seattle is 31-20 ATS, but they are in transition. There is a chance they might not be a favorite all month, but chances are they will be at least once against @Chicago (9/17), Dallas (9/23) and @Arizona (9/30).


    Bad: For years, the Rams, no matter where they were from, they were a brutal favorite. Their record of 12-30 ATS record explains that, but things could be changing. This L.A. bunch has the young loaded roster and is expected to be favored in all four of their games this month. Nonetheless, paying attention to history still matters.


    Keep an eye on (Bad): Sportsbooks are calling for Arizona to be last in their division, but because of three home games this month, they will be favored at least twice. That might not be good since the Cardinals are only 11-20 ATS, facing Washington (9/9) and Chicago (9/23)


    At 12-23 ATS when handing out points, Carolina is not a pretty play. The Panthers will give points to Dallas in Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 3, both at home.


    Chicago has a similar record to Carolina at 14-23 ATS and will catch Tampa Bay in Week 4 as a fave. Da Bears might be a very small favorite in Week 2 in the Windy City against Seattle, but the prior week's results will determine that.


    UNDERDOGS


    Good: Dallas has been a sharp 27-11 ATS in this role they will be around a three-point pooch at Carolina to start the season. The early line had the Cowboys catching points in Seattle (9/23) but that could change.


    Keep an eye on (Good): Kansas City is a nice 29-18 ATS as a September dog and as we start the month, they are receiving digits in two away games at the Chargers (9/9), and Pittsburgh (9/16).


    The Vikings ship also travels well as underdogs at 27-18 ATS and they will be in Green Bay (9/16) and at the Rams on the last Thursday of the month.


    DIVISION


    Keep an eye on (Good): The Chiefs have been well prepared for AFC West action to begin the season with a 24-13 ATS mark. Good chance to improve in Game 1 against the Bolts in L.A.


    Bad: It's Gruden 2.0 in Oakland and at 11-22 ATS versus division competitors, Week 2 at Denver might not be good.


    Keep an eye on (Bad): Chicago is 18-27 ATS this month in the NFC North and it could get worse with a trip to Green Bay on Sunday Night football.
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    Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack


    Over/under totals on number of TD passes thrown this season:


    33.5— Aaron Rodgers


    32.5— Tom Brady


    28— Ben Roethlisberger


    27— Jared Goff


    26.5— Brees, Rivers, Stafford, Watson


    25.5— Cousins, Prescott, Wilson


    **********


    Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Things I learned while watching way too much TV


    13) Texas Tech’s marching band was the first marching band to to travel to its school’s road football games, way back in 1925.


    12) Actor Dennis Quaid is left-handed; he was a quarterback in Any Given Sunday, a relief pitcher in The Rookie.


    11) Since he became the starter ten years ago, Green Bay is 94-48 when Aaron Rodgers starts for them; they’re 6-11-1 in games he’s missed.


    10) Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove began Thursday’s game with 21 consecutive strikes, the most by any starting pitcher to begin a game since pitches were first tracked in 1988.


    9) There are 48 college football games this season where the visiting team is getting a guarantee of at least $1M. At the highest level, college sports is very big business.


    8) There is a movie called Owning Mahowny that is about a bank manager with:
    (a) a gambling problem and
    (b) access to a multimillion dollar bank account;


    The movie is based on the true story of the largest one-man bank fraud in Canadian history. It stars Philip Seymour Hoffman and Minnie Driver.


    7) Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich is the first player with a cycle, a 5th hit and an outfield assist all in the same game since Andre Dawson on April 29, 1987. Yelich had his big night Wednesday in Cincinnati.


    6) Baltimore Ravens have won their last 14 preseason games; they’re also 21-27 in the regular season the last three years, haven’t made the playoffs since 2014.


    5) Now I feel old: Trent Green’s son is the backup QB at Northwestern.


    4) Something is amiss with the Red Sox’ front office; David Howard, who has been Boston’s minor league field coordinator for nine years, has been fired- no word on why. Odd timing.


    3) The other night in Fenway Park, Red Sox scored 11 runs in an inning; Andrew Benitendi made the first out of the inning with a sacrifice bunt, then ended the inning by grounding into a double play. Research Doug Kern looked this up, and says that has never happened before in the big leagues.


    2) Friday night’s Detroit-New York baseball game was first one this year where both managers were ejected. Ejections have to be way down since instant replay became a thing.


    1) There are 24 grad transfer QB’s in college football this season, which means a kid got his degree at one school, wasn’t happy with his playing situation and went elsewhere to finish his college career.
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    Questions abound for the 2018 NFL season
    September 3, 2018



    NEW YORK (AP) Rules changes and national anthem demonstrations seem to have folks inside and outside the NFL obsessed as the opening kickoff of the season approaches.


    Yes, the Super Bowl champion Eagles and Atlanta Falcons will open things on Thursday night in Philadelphia. What many folks wonder: Will there be any social injustice protests during ''The Star-Spangled Banner?'' And if players, coaches and officials will have a handle on the adjustment to use of the helmet in making a hit.


    Not to mention the new kickoff rules and, at last, a catch rule that seems to make sense.


    Those are enough issues to grab attention away from Philly's quarterback situation, as well as the progress of the five first-round QB draft choices expected to make their debuts sooner or later.


    Or from the return from injuries of Aaron Rodgers, J.J. Watt, Richard Sherman, Deshaun Watson, David Johnson and Odell Beckham Jr., to name a few.


    Or Jon Gruden's return to an NFL sideline in Oakland.


    Plus, Adam Vinatieri's pursuit of the career points and field goals marks.


    What's ahead through the penultimate day of the 2018 calendar?


    RULE CHANGES


    The preseason has been dominated, even overridden, by discussion of and doubts about the ''helmet rule.'' Basically, any player on offense or defense lowering his head and making contact with any part of the helmet is subject to a 15-yard penalty, a fine, and even an ejection. It's a player safety adjustment for which ''the goal long term is to make the game safer and take out some of these hits that should not be part of the game,'' says Giants owner John Mara, a member of the competition committee that recommends rules changes to the owners.


    The concerns on many levels focus on players adjusting to the tackling requirements and officials mastering such calls at full speed.


    Gene Steratore, who recently retired as an NFL (and college basketball) referee, expects the critical tempest to die down quickly.


    ''Players will adjust because they are that good,'' says Steratore, now an analyst for CBS after 15 seasons in the league. ''Officials will, too, because they are that good. There will be a learning curve for all of them, but I think in a fast period of time, a trigger moment will come that will show right before that contact if it is worthy of a flag.''


    The fix to the phrasing of the catch rule should eliminate the kind of calls - on Jesse James, Dez Bryant et al - many found bogus.


    ''Control. If it looks like a catch and smells like a catch, it's a catch,'' says Troy Vincent, the NFL's chief of football operations. ''(The rule) had become convoluted: what you should do, what you shouldn't do. It should be clear as day. So our job was to simplify and we put it in practical terms.''


    The other major rule alteration is on kickoffs, where coverage team players no longer can take a running start, and there are regulations on where kick team players can be overall and how they can block.


    ''This is certainly a way of trying to keep the kickoff in the game and attempting to cut down on high-speed collisions,'' Mara says. ''There are a lot of us who don't want to take the kickoff out unless we can't find ways to make it safer. It is our most dangerous play.''


    NATIONAL ANTHEM


    Anticipation of whether players will demonstrate during the national anthem again this year is high, fueled in part by reactions from President Trump. Players argue that their message about the need for change in communities nationwide has been misconstrued by the president and his followers, including many team owners.


    With the unilateral policy banning players from any on-field protests during the anthem on hold as owners and players discuss the issue, no one can be sure what's ahead.


    Everyone can be sure the topic won't disappear.


    ''I think part of the problem is that when you continue the rhetoric that this is controversial or this is somehow a negative thing, people treat it as such,'' Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins says. ''But we've seen in other leagues when they've decided to amplify the voices of their players to also emphasize the importance of the issues that we're raising, and change the narrative away from the anthem, that not only is it more acceptable, the fan base gets educated on what we're talking about, and we can actually make some movement.''


    ROOKIE QBS


    Before we reach 2019, it's a near-certainty that Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson will get onto the field. Some likely will be starters, maybe even stamp themselves as stars.


    Only in Baltimore, where Joe Flacco is the incumbent, is the rookie (Jackson) a long shot to become the No. 1 quarterback this season. The others - Cleveland's Mayfield, Buffalo's Allen, the Jets' Darnold and Arizona's Rosen - are with teams considered outsiders in the playoff chase and it makes sense as early as prudent to see if they are the franchise QBs they were drafted to be.


    COACHES


    New coaches in charge of the Cardinals, Titans, Lions, Giants, Bears and Raiders include four newbies to being in charge: Detroit's Matt Patricia, Chicago's Matt Nagy, Tennessee's Mike Vrabel and Arizona's Steve Wilks. All of them made their marks as proficient coordinators and bring freshness and toughness to their franchises.


    Vrabel, of course, has three Super Bowl rings as a player with New England, which surely earns him some respect in the locker room. If he's considered a product of the Belichick coaching tree, though, Vrabel could struggle; few of the Patriots coach's proteges have had much success as a head man in the NFL.


    So the same goes for Patricia, although he has far more experience in coaching.


    New York's Pat Shurmur had a short stint in charge in Cleveland and probably didn't get a fair shake. The Giants desperately needed a culture change after the 2017 debacle.


    ''I have seen just about all I could see from the top of the mountain to having the second pick in the draft,'' Mara says. ''Last year still is somewhat of a shock to me, going from a preseason Super Bowl contender to being the second-worst team in the league. It was a perfect storm, just an avalanche of injuries, locker room issues, a relatively inexperienced head coach (Ben McAdoo) who hadn't had to deal with any of that in the past, and some draft classes not all that productive. And it adds up to a bad season.''


    Oakland also comes off a bad season following a playoff appearance, and the Raiders made the biggest splash by bringing back (and out of the broadcast booth) Jon Gruden. There's lots of excitement in the Black Hole and throughout the Bay Area about Gruden, who clearly has stamped his personality on the roster by trading his best player, holdout pass rusher Khalil Mack.


    ''I love the Raider fans, I love Oakland, and that's the primary reason why I'm standing here,'' he says.


    PURSUING HISTORY

    Vinatieri is a marvel. The NFL's oldest player at 45, he begins his 23rd pro season in range to pass Hall of Famer Morten Andersen as the leading scorer. He was dependable for a decade in New England and then a dozen years in Indianapolis.


    He needs seven field goals to pass Andersen (565) for the most field goals. Andersen scored 2,544 points in a league-record 382 games and Vinatieri needs 58 points to break the record.


    ''It's one of those things that I haven't really though too much about it,'' he says. ''I'm still just trying to help my team win games and keep on putting chapters in this book, and if that happens, fantastic.''
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    Tech Trends - Week 1
    September 3, 2018
    By Bruce Marshall



    THURSDAY, SEP. 6


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

    ATLANTA at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Falcs only 2-6 vs. line away in reg season LY (1-1 in playoffs, L at Philly in Div Round), after 7-1 vs. spread away in 2016 reg season. Atl also “over” 21-11 past two reg seasons. Pederson 13-4-1 vs. line at Linc since taking over Birds in 2016.
    Tech Edge: Eagles, based on team trends.
    SUNDAY, SEP. 9


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET
    )
    Interestingly, Brownies have covered last 3 meetings, though they’ve lost last 6 SU in series. Hue Jackson just 4-12 vs. line each of past two seasons. Steel “under” 8-0-1 last nine as reg season visitor.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on Steelers “totals” trends.


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    SAN FRANCISCO at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Niners were 5-0 SU and vs. spread in Garoppolo starts last season, which makes Garoppolo 7-0 SU and vs. line in his starts since 2016 (Pats & 49ers). SF also “under” 6-2 away LY. Vikes, however, 8-1 vs. line last 9 reg season at home. Minny also 2-5-1 “under” in reg season at US Bank Stadium LY.
    Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “”totals” trends.


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Colts “under’ 15-8 last 23 back to mid 2016, but have lost and failed to cover last three openers (with Pagano). Save 2016, Marvin Lewis usually good as a dog (5-3-1 LY; 11-3-1 203-15, though 1-5 in role in 2016). Reich Indy debut.
    Tech Edge: Bengals and “under,” based on “totals” and team trends.


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    BUFFALO at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Harbaugh 7-3 SU and vs. line in openers with Ravens. Harbaugh also “under” last four openers. Bills only 4-5 as reg season dog LY.
    Tech Edge: Ravens and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    JACKSONVILLE at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Shurmur G-Men debut! Eli 7-4 as home dog since 2015, and “under” 17-7 since mid 2016.
    Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends..


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Home team has won and covered all four meetings past two seasons. Saints have covered last five as host in NFC South games. Brees also “over” 21-11 last four years as reg season host. Koetter 14-8-1 as dog past two seasons.
    Tech Edge: Saints and slight to “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Note Texans were 5-1 vs. line LY in games started by Deshaun Watson, including cover and near miss of upset SU win at Foxborough. Houston 2-8 vs. spread LY in games Watson didn’t start. Texans also “over” 5-0 in Watson’s last five starts in 2018.
    Tech Edge: Texans and “over,” based on Watson trends.


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    TENNESSEE at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

    Vrabel Titans debut! Tenn only 2-5-1 as road chalk since 2015. Dolphins closed slow LY with 2-7-1 spread mark last ten, though Gase is 5-2-1 as home dog past two seasons.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    KANSAS CITY at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

    Andy Reid has owned this series lately, 8-0 SU and 6-2 vs. line since 2014 vs. Bolts. Chiefs 15-6 vs. spread last 21 reg seas away from Arrowhead 5. Bolts “under” 12-4 LY (including both vs. KC).
    Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    SEATTLE at DENVER (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Vance Joseph closed 2017 on 2-10 spread skid,and Broncos 5-14-1 vs. number since late in 2016. Denver has, however, won last 6 SU in openers. Pete Carroll 21-10-4 as dog since 2011.
    Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    DALLAS at CAROLINA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Cam 3-1 SU and vs. line last four openers, and Pan-thas did cover 6 of last 9 reg seas LY. Dak only 1-3 as dog LY though Cowboys were 5-1-1 vs. spread last seven away in 2017. Dallas “under” 14-7 last 21 reg seas since late 2016.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    WASHINGTON at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

    Wilks Az debut! Big Red is 29-11-1 SU at Glendale since 2014. Also “under” 13-5-1 last 19 at UOP Stadium. Jay Gruden flattening out a bit lately vs. line but it “over” 17-7 away since 2015.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on team trends.


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    CHICAGO at GREEN BAY (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

    Nagy Bears debut! Pack is 7-3-1 as Lambeau chalk past two seasons. Bears only 5-11 vs. line away past two seasons and were also “under” 11-5 LY for.
    Tech Edge: Pack and slight to "under," based on Lambeau trends.


    MONDAY, SEP. 10

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    N.Y. JETS at DETROIT (ESPN, 7:10 p.m. ET)

    Patricia debut for Lions! Caldwellwas 14-5-1 as Ford Field chalk the past four seasons. Though Lions enter 2018 only 4-6 vs. spread last ten as host. Bowles just 3-7-1 as road dog past two seasons but “under” 10-5 last 15 away.
    Tech Edge: Lions and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    L.A. RAMS at OAKLAND (ESPN, 10:20 p.m. ET)

    Gruden Raiders re-debut! Rams were 6-3 vs. line away LY for McVay. Oakland “under” 11-5 last season including last seven. Raid-uhs also just 4-11-3 last 18 on board since late 2016.
    Tech Edge: Rams and “under."
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    Games to Watch - Week 1
    September 4, 2018
    By YouWager.eu



    NFL Games to Watch - Week 1


    Week 1 of the 2018 college football season is now officially in the books and we are now just a matter of days away from the opening game in the new NFL season. That means we have a busy weekend coming up for football bettors, so we are going to try and make things easier by breaking down the NFL Week 1 schedule to pick out a few games that we think you should be paying attention to this weekend.


    We have 3 games in total to look at, where we will look at the current odds, take a peek at which way the public is leaning, and perhaps make a prediction or two.


    Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (Thursday, NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)


    The season opener takes place on Thursday night and it has all the makings of a beauty, with the defending Super Bowl champions opening at home against the Atlanta Falcons. The Eagles are in as a 2 ½ point favorite for this one, with the point total set at 45. The first thing that we need to consider here is that QB Carson Wentz is not yet ready to start.


    Nick Foles proved to be more a more than adequate back-up last season, leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl, but he has been less than stellar in regular season play. The public consensus right now is split down the middle in both the spread and the point total, which is no real surprise given how good these two teams are. What I see here is that only 3 of the last 10 meetings between these two have gone over, which is the play I would be looking at.


    Predicted Score: Philadelphia Eagles 21 Atlanta Falcons 20


    Houston Texans at New England Patriots (Sunday, CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)



    You look at the 4-12 record of the Texans last season and automatically see them as a serious underdog against the team that has dominated the league for years. There is more to this story than meets the eye, though, as this Texans team looks like a real dark horse to me this year, assuming they can stay healthy, particularly at the QB position.


    The Patriots are a 6 ½ point home favorite for this one, with the point total set at 51. The public consensus right now is mildly in favor of the Texans ATS and very much in favor of the OVER, with 68% leaning that way. The OVER has hit in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two, so perhaps not that surprising. I am with the betting public on this one.


    Predicted Score: New England Patriots 30 Houston Texans 27


    Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)


    The Bears just made one of the biggest moves of the offseason in landing the services of Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders. He could very well make an immediate impact, but will that be enough against a Green Bay Packers team that is one of the favorites to win it all this season. The Packers are in as a 7 ½ point home favorite, with the point total set at 47 ½.


    The Packers have dominated their recent meetings with the Bears, going 8-2 SU and covering in 7 of those meetings. Despite the lopsided nature of those games, the betting public appears to still be somewhat on the fence. I am on the Packers to win and cover and I also like the OVER.


    Predicted Score: Green Bay Packers 42 Chicago Bears 17
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    Thursday's Best Bet
    September 4, 2018
    By BetOnline.ag



    NFL Week 1 TNF Betting Preview


    Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles

    After months of breaking down schedules, rosters, and of course the odds, Week 1 of the NFL season is just hours away. As is customary now, the defending champs get to open up a new campaign at home, and for the Philadelphia Eagles it will be a return match from the first step of their championship journey; a home game with Atlanta.


    Obviously, the Eagles would like to duplicate the result, but Atlanta won't be happy knowing that this was the same team that ended the Falcons 2017 season, and now its the Falcons who've got to sit through all the video montages and remembrances of what a great season it was in Philly prior to this game. That's not the best scenario to put the defending champs in but will they slip up like New England did 12 months ago in the same spot?


    BetOnline.ag Odds: Philadelphia (-2.5); Total set at 45


    Getting the last two Super Bowl combatants from the NFC for a season opener should be good, as even the backup QB who won the Eagles the Super Bowl is back in a starting role thanks to injury. Philly is going with QB Nick Foles under center for this game as QB Carson Wentz still nurses some nagging injuries, and you've really got to feel for Foles.


    Foles is a guy that got next to nothing in terms of respect from the betting markets and fans when he came into replace Wentz last year, got hot at exactly the right time, parlayed that into a Super Bowl MVP and victory, and then is forced back into the shadows as a backup before another injury thrusts him into the limelight. Foles as got to understand that Wentz is Philly's guy going forward, but it still can't feel great being jerked around and expected to perform at the snap of a finger like he is.


    And now, expectations for Foles are through the roof given the run he went on last year and it's going to be nearly impossible for him to live up to those expectations in Game 1. Oddly enough though, with Foles getting the nod for this season opener, he does share a similar situation to a QB who came out and surprised many in last year's season opener.


    Last year's season opening game saw Kansas City in New England to take on the Patriots and all the talk then was about how QB Alex Smith was a lame duck QB, nothing more than a dink-and-dunk game manager that the Chiefs were all ready to move on from. Little was expected from Smith against the defending champs and he came out there and turned into Joe Montana for three hours.


    Smith was taking deep shots whenever he felt he could, airing things out and taking chances to prove to everyone he deserved to still be a starter in this league. If the Chiefs were already replacing Smith on the depth chart in their minds, he made sure he'd go and get paid in free agency this year (he did) and keep the transition to Mahomes on the sidelines for at least another year.


    Now, Foles isn't going to be supplanting the move to Wentz at QB for Philadelphia, but it's not like he's potentially playing for a starting position somewhere else in a season like Smith was a year ago. Foles has a few more things on the resume too after last year's playoff run, and I would not be surprised to see him go back to that ultra-aggressive decision maker that led the Eagles to the championship. Atlanta has shown in the past that their secondary can be had, so don't think Foles will be ready to fade away from the spotlight just yet.


    Which means the total is actually the better play on this game in my eyes, although their has been movement on both the side and total. Regarding the side, Atlanta has been bet down to below +3 after it was announced that Foles would get the nod. Atlanta showed next to nothing in the preseason, but they've got an opportunity to be an all-time great offense this year if things fall in place. I'd still like to see more from their defense though before I really begin to trust them and it's why I'm staying away from the side.


    The total has dropped as well after opening at 46.5 and it's a move I see based on some stale thinking. Part of it is Foles is starting for the Eagles again (their backup), part of it is all the injuries Philly's been resting all month and not really knowing what to expect there, and part of it is the abysmal point production numbers Atlanta put up in the preseason.


    The Falcons only scored a grand total of 27 points in their four preseason games and three of the four were held to a TD or less. That's why the 'under' has gotten the majority of the support so far, but I'll gladly take the value on this number now and go the other way.


    For one, I already expect the Eagles attack to be fairly aggressive with Foles back under center, as thsi team played it's best down the stretch a year ago when the games were higher scoring. Philly's defense still leaves a lot to be desired and it's not like the Falcons don't have a shortage of offensive weapons to use at their disposal. It may not have worked out for Matt Ryan and company in the playoff game, but the 15-10 final score from that contest could end up being similar to the score after the 1st quarter here.


    So while many look back at that 15-10 game from the playoffs, combine it with Atlanta's brutal preseason and Philadelphia's numerous injuries to arrive at the conclusion that this game will be another defensive slugfest, I believe going against the grain here and taking the high side of this number is the better way to go.


    Atlanta's had six months to lament what didn't work against this defense in that playoff game, got healthier and more explosive, and will be out to make a statement of their own being just one year removed from nearly hoisting the Lombardi Trophy as well.


    Nick Foles and Philly aren't ready for their spotlight to dim yet as they've already stated in the media how they feel like they still get disrespected in the media/by prognosticators even after winning it all, so they won't hold back on the aggressiveness either.


    And whether or not we see the defending champs lose the season opener like we saw with the Patriots a year ago I don't know, but we should see one thing the same: a high-scoring contest.


    Best Bet: Over 45
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  7. #7  
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    SB Trend favor Eagles in Week 1
    September 3, 2018
    By VI News



    The 2018 NFL regular season kicks off on Thursday Sept. 6 when Philadelphia hosts Atlanta at Lincoln Financial Field from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.


    The two teams met in the 2017 Divisional Playoffs and Philadelphia captured a 15-10 win over Atlanta as a 2 ½-point home underdog.


    For the Week 1 rematch, the Eagles opened as four-point home favorites but that number has moved in Atlanta's direction and the line is listed as low as Philadelphia -1 ½ at a few betting outfits.


    On Monday, Eagles coach Doug Pederson says quarterback Nick Foles will start for the team in the opener and Carson Wentz still hasn't been medically cleared for contact.


    Foles was the starter in last year's postseason matchup against Atlanta and was 23-of-30 for 246 yards but the veteran who won last year's Super Bowl for the Eagles hasn't looked sharp in the preseason.


    Whether or its Foles or Wentz under center for the Eagles, backing the defending Super Bowl champions in their Week 1 opener the following season is a well-known angle and the public has banked on it.


    The trend didn't connect last year as Kansas City stunned New England 42-27 at Foxboro. However, bettors should note that we've only seen Super Bowl winners drop back-to-back openers twice since 2000.


    Those consecutive setbacks occured in the 2012 and 2013 seasons when the Giants and Ravens lost to the Cowboys and Broncos respectively.


    SUPER BOWL WINNER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (2000-2017)


    Year SB Winner Opponent Score (SU-ATS-O/U Result)



    2017 New England (-8) vs. Kansas City 42-27 (Loss-Loss-Over)


    2016 Denver (+3) vs. Carolina 21-20 (Win-Win-Over)


    2015 New England (-7) vs. Pittsburgh 28-21 (Win-Push-Under)


    2014 Seattle (-4.5) vs. Green Bay 36-16 (Win-Win-Over)


    2013 Baltimore (+7.5) at Denver 27-49 (Loss-Loss-Over)


    2012 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) vs. Dallas 17-24 (Loss-Loss-Under)


    2011 Green Bay (-4.5) vs. New Orleans 42-34 (Win-Win-Over)


    2010 New Orleans (-4.5) vs. Minnesota 14-9 (Win-Win-Under)


    2009 Pittsburgh (-5) vs. Tennessee 13-10 (Win-Loss-Under)


    2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) vs. Washington 16-7 (Win-Win-Under)


    2007 Indianapolis (-5) vs. New Orleans 41-10 (Win-Win-Under)


    2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. Miami 28-17 (Win-Win-Over)


    2005 New England (-7.5) vs. Oakland 30-20 (Win-Win-Over)


    2004 New England (-3) vs. Indianapolis 27-24 (Win-Push-Over)


    2003 Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Philadelphia 17-0 (Win-Win-Under)


    2002 New England (PK) vs. Pittsburgh 30-14 (Win-Win-Over)


    2001 Baltimore (-10) vs. Chicago 17-6 (Win-Win-Under)


    2000 St. Louis (-7) vs. Denver 41-36 (Win-Loss-Over)



    Including New England's defeat to Kansas City last season, the defending champions are now 15-3 straight up and 11-5-2 against the spread in Week 1 openers since 2000.


    There is another popular Super Bowl betting angle that calls for fading last year's runner-up in Week 1.


    In case you forgot, the Eagles defeated the New England Patriots and they're listed as six-point home favorites over the Houston Texans in Week 1.


    SUPER BOWL LOSER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (1999-2017)


    Year SB Loser Opponent Score (SU-ATS-O/U Result)



    2017 Atlanta (-7) at Chicago 23-17 (Win-Loss-Under)


    2016 Carolina (-3) at Denver 20-21 (Loss-Loss-Over)


    2015 Seattle (-3.5) at St. Louis 31-34 - OT (Loss-Loss-Over)


    2014 Denver (-8) vs. Indianapolis 31-24 (Win-Loss-Over)


    2013 San Francisco (-5.5) vs. Green Bay 34-28 (Win-Win-Over)


    2012 New England (-5) at Tennessee 34-13 (Win-Win-Under)


    2011 Pittsburgh (+1) at Baltimore 7-35 (Loss-Loss-Over)


    2010 Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston 24-34 (Loss-Loss-Over)


    2009 Arizona (-6.5) vs. San Francisco 6-20 (Loss-Loss-Under)


    2008 New England (-16) vs. Kansas City 17-10 (Win-Loss-Under)


    2007 Chicago (+6) at San Diego 3-14 (Loss-Loss-Under)


    2006 Seattle (-6) at Detroit 9-6 (Win-Loss-Under)


    2005 Philadelphia (-1) at Atlanta 10-14 (Loss-Loss-Under)


    2004 Carolina (-3) vs. Green Bay 14-24 (Loss-Loss-Under)


    2003 Oakland (+3) at Tennessee 20-25 (Loss-Loss-Under)


    2002 St. Louis (-3) at Denver 16-23 (Loss-Loss-Under)


    2001 N.Y. Giants (+3) vs. San Francisco 13-16 (Loss-Loss-Under)


    2000 Tennessee (PK) at Buffalo 13-16 (Loss-Loss-Under)


    1999 Atlanta (+4) at Minnesota 14-17 (Loss-Win-Under)



    In the 2017 regular season, the Falcons did win their Week 1 opener at Chicago but they failed to cover the spread as road favorites.


    Including that result, the Super Bowl runner-up from the previous season has gone 6-13 SU and 4-15 ATS since 1999.


    Despite the poor overall numbers (21%) versus the number during this span, the Super Bowl ‘losers’ have won four of the last six seasons and they were expected to do so as favorites.


    We also highlighted in the above table that the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight Week 1 openers for the Super Bowl loser and the total for the Patriots-Texans matchup is currently the only ‘over/under’ listed in the fifties for the opening weekend.
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  8. #8  
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    NFL
    Dunkel


    Week 1



    Thursday, September 6


    Atlanta @ Philadelphia


    Game 451-452
    September 6, 2018 @ 8:20 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Atlanta
    143.294
    Philadelphia
    139.361
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 4
    35
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Philadelphia
    by 3
    45 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (+3); Under




    Sunday, September 9


    Pittsburgh @ Cleveland



    Game 453-454
    September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Pittsburgh
    129.902
    Cleveland
    127.832
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 2
    41
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 6
    46 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cleveland
    (+6); Under


    San Francisco @ Minnesota



    Game 455-456
    September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    San Francisco
    137.687
    Minnesota
    136.748
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Francisco
    by 1
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 6
    46
    Dunkel Pick:
    San Francisco
    (+6); Over


    Cincinnati @ Indianapolis



    Game 457-458
    September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Cincinnati
    129.229
    Indianapolis
    122.790
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Cincinnati
    by 6 1/2
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Indianapolis
    by 3
    47
    Dunkel Pick:
    Cincinnati
    (+3); Over


    Buffalo @ Baltimore



    Game 459-460
    September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Buffalo
    122.985
    Baltimore
    137.492
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Baltimore
    by 14 1/2
    33
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Baltimore
    by 7
    40 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Baltimore
    (-7); Under


    Jacksonville @ NY Giants



    Game 461-462
    September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Jacksonville
    136.232
    NY Giants
    124.735
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 11 1/2
    31
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 3
    43 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Jacksonville
    (-3); Under


    Tampa Bay @ New Orleans



    Game 463-464
    September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Tampa Bay
    127.806
    New Orleans
    142.219
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New Orleans
    by 14 1/2
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 9 1/2
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    New Orleans
    (-9 1/2); Over


    Houston @ New England



    Game 465-466
    September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    117.759
    New England
    141.487
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 23 1/2
    54
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 6 1/2
    51
    Dunkel Pick:
    New England
    (-6 1/2); Over


    Tennessee @ Miami



    Game 467-468
    September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Tennessee
    125.925
    Miami
    129.438
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Miami
    by 3 1/2
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 1 1/2
    46
    Dunkel Pick:
    Miami
    (+1 1/2); Under


    Kansas City @ San Diego



    Game 469-470
    September 9, 2018 @ 4:05 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Kansas City
    133.795
    San Diego
    134.631
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    San Diego
    by 1
    35
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    San Diego
    by 3 1/2
    47 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Kansas City
    (+3 1/2); Under


    Seattle @ Denver



    Game 471-472
    September 9, 2018 @ 4:25 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Seattle
    132.927
    Denver
    125.244
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Seattle
    by 7 1/2
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Denver
    by 3
    42
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (+3); Over


    Dallas @ Carolina



    Game 473-474
    September 9, 2018 @ 4:25 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    134.042
    Carolina
    133.257
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Dallas
    by 1
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Carolina
    by 3
    42 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    Dallas
    (+3); Over


    Washington @ Arizona



    Game 475-476
    September 9, 2018 @ 4:25 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Washington
    127.693
    Arizona
    132.198
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Arizona
    by 4 1/2
    38
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Arizona
    Pick
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Arizona
    Under


    Chicago @ Green Bay



    Game 477-478
    September 9, 2018 @ 8:20 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    Chicago
    123.166
    Green Bay
    133.561
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Green Bay
    by 10 1/2
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Green Bay
    by 8
    48
    Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (-8); Under




    Monday, September 10


    NY Jets @ Detroit



    Game 479-480
    September 10, 2018 @ 7:10 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Jets
    123.494
    Detroit
    133.680
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Detroit
    by 10
    48
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Detroit
    by 6 1/2
    44
    Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (-6 1/2); Over


    LA Rams @ Oakland



    Game 481-482
    September 10, 2018 @ 10:20 pm


    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Rams
    134.776
    Oakland
    124.398
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 10 1/2
    53
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 3
    49 1/2
    Dunkel Pick:
    LA Rams
    (-3); Over
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  9. #9  
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    NFL
    Long Sheet


    Week 1



    Thursday, September 6


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    ATLANTA (11 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (16 - 3) - 9/6/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
    PHILADELPHIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    ATLANTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Sunday, September 9


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    PITTSBURGH (13 - 4) at CLEVELAND (0 - 16) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 105-77 ATS (+20.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    CLEVELAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    CLEVELAND is 2-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 10) at MINNESOTA (14 - 4) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CINCINNATI (7 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 12) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
    CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    BUFFALO (9 - 8) at BALTIMORE (9 - 7) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    JACKSONVILLE (12 - 7) at NY GIANTS (3 - 13) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    JACKSONVILLE is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TAMPA BAY (5 - 11) at NEW ORLEANS (12 - 6) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    HOUSTON (4 - 12) at NEW ENGLAND (15 - 4) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    NEW ENGLAND is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TENNESSEE (10 - 8) at MIAMI (6 - 10) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 112-146 ATS (-48.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KANSAS CITY (10 - 7) at LA CHARGERS (9 - 7) - 9/9/2018, 4:05 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SEATTLE (9 - 7) at DENVER (5 - 11) - 9/9/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DALLAS (9 - 7) at CAROLINA (11 - 6) - 9/9/2018, 4:25 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    WASHINGTON (7 - 9) at ARIZONA (8 - 8) - 9/9/2018, 4:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 63-88 ATS (-33.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    ARIZONA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    CHICAGO (5 - 11) at GREEN BAY (7 - 9) - 9/9/2018, 8:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    CHICAGO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 108-78 ATS (+22.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    GREEN BAY is 187-133 ATS (+40.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    GREEN BAY is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Monday, September 10


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NY JETS (5 - 11) at DETROIT (9 - 7) - 9/10/2018, 7:10 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    DETROIT is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    LA RAMS (11 - 6) at OAKLAND (6 - 10) - 9/10/2018, 10:20 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 62-97 ATS (-44.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in September games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
    OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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  10. #10  
    RX Local
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Las Vegas
    Posts
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    NFL


    Week 1



    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Trend Report
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Thursday, September 6


    Atlanta Falcons
    Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
    Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
    Atlanta is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
    Atlanta is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Philadelphia
    Atlanta is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Philadelphia
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Atlanta's last 13 games when playing Philadelphia
    Atlanta is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Atlanta is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
    Philadelphia Eagles
    Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games
    Philadelphia is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
    Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Philadelphia is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
    Philadelphia is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Atlanta
    Philadelphia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 13 games when playing Atlanta
    Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
    Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta




    Sunday, September 9


    Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    Tampa Bay is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games
    Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    Tampa Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games on the road
    Tampa Bay is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing New Orleans
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 19 games when playing New Orleans
    Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
    New Orleans Saints
    New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    New Orleans is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
    New Orleans is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of New Orleans's last 19 games when playing Tampa Bay
    New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
    New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay




    San Francisco 49ers
    San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    San Francisco is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
    San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    San Francisco is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
    San Francisco is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
    San Francisco is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
    Minnesota Vikings
    Minnesota is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
    Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Minnesota is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
    Minnesota is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games at home
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
    Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
    Minnesota is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Francisco
    Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing at home against San Francisco




    Buffalo Bills
    Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
    Buffalo is 7-11-3 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
    Buffalo is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games on the road
    Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
    Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
    Baltimore Ravens
    Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baltimore's last 12 games
    Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
    Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
    Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
    Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo




    Jacksonville Jaguars
    Jacksonville is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
    Jacksonville is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
    Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
    New York Giants
    NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games
    NY Giants is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 12 games at home
    NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville




    Houston Texans
    Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
    Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
    Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
    Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games when playing New England
    Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
    Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
    New England Patriots
    New England is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
    New England is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New England's last 15 games
    New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
    New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of New England's last 13 games at home
    New England is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Houston
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 10 games when playing Houston
    New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston




    Tennessee Titans
    Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
    Tennessee is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
    Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
    Tennessee is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tennessee's last 18 games when playing Miami
    Tennessee is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Miami
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 13 games when playing on the road against Miami
    Miami Dolphins
    Miami is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games
    Miami is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 11 games
    Miami is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games at home
    Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
    Miami is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
    The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Miami's last 18 games when playing Tennessee
    Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 13 games when playing at home against Tennessee




    Cincinnati Bengals
    Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
    Cincinnati is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
    Cincinnati is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
    Cincinnati is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Indianapolis
    Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
    Indianapolis Colts
    Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
    Indianapolis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
    Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
    Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
    Indianapolis is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
    Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
    Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati




    Pittsburgh Steelers
    Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
    Pittsburgh is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
    Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games when playing Cleveland
    Pittsburgh is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
    Cleveland Browns
    Cleveland is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games
    Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
    Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 13 games at home
    Cleveland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
    Cleveland is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh




    Kansas City Chiefs
    Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
    Kansas City is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
    Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    Kansas City is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games on the road
    Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games on the road
    Kansas City is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
    Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
    Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
    Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
    Los Angeles Chargers
    LA Chargers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
    LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
    LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    LA Chargers is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
    LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home
    LA Chargers is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
    LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing Kansas City
    LA Chargers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
    LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City




    Washington Redskins
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
    Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 14 of Washington's last 20 games on the road
    Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
    Washington is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Arizona
    Washington is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    Arizona Cardinals
    Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
    Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Arizona's last 15 games
    Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
    Arizona is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home
    Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Arizona's last 20 games at home
    Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
    Arizona is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Washington
    Arizona is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Washington
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington




    Seattle Seahawks
    Seattle is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
    Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Seattle is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
    Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
    Seattle is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games when playing Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 10 games when playing Denver
    Seattle is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Denver
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
    Denver Broncos
    Denver is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games
    Denver is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
    Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Denver is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
    Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Denver is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Seattle
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games when playing Seattle
    Denver is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Seattle
    Denver is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Seattle
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games when playing at home against Seattle




    Dallas Cowboys
    Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games
    Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
    Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
    Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
    Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
    Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
    Carolina Panthers
    Carolina is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
    Carolina is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games
    Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games at home
    Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
    Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
    Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
    Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas




    Chicago Bears
    Chicago is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
    Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    Chicago is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
    Chicago is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Green Bay
    Chicago is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
    Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Chicago is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
    Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games
    Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
    Green Bay is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
    Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Green Bay is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Chicago
    Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing Chicago
    Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago
    Green Bay is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Chicago
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games when playing at home against Chicago




    Monday, September 10


    New York Jets
    NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
    NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
    NY Jets is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
    NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 10 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
    Detroit Lions
    Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
    Detroit is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets




    Los Angeles Rams
    LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
    LA Rams is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games
    LA Rams is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
    LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games on the road
    LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Oakland
    LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
    Oakland Raiders
    Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
    Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
    Oakland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
    Oakland is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
    Oakland is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
    Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
    Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
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  11. #11  
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    Trends to Watch - September
    Marc Lawrence


    HOME TEAMS


    Keep an eye on (Good):
    Off another sensational NFL Preseason Baltimore is an excellent home team this month at 30-17 ATS and have Buffalo (9/9) and Denver two weeks in the land of crab cakes.


    You might think Buffalo's best home month is December, but it's not. They are strong in September at 34-22 ATS but only have one homer, against the L.A. Chargers on Sept. 16th.


    Detroit is a solid 30-19 ATS in the Motor City and has the Jets on the first Monday Night game of the season and Dallas on the third Sunday of the month (9/23). San Francisco is thought to be revitalized this season and is 28-17 ATS this month in their building, but they have a nasty opening slate and just the Lions (9/16) at home early.


    Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona has three games in Glendale to start the season with the Redskins (9/9), Bears (9/23) and Seahawks (9/30) and we will find out right away if the oddsmaker 5.5 win total is correct.


    Carolina will be tested right off the bat with it's poor 16-24 home spread record, with Dallas there on Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 3. Speaking of the Bengals, the days of "The Jungle" are long gone with a 17-29 ATS record. And it might not improve with Baltimore in Cincy for the second Thursday night affair.


    After playing in Arizona in their season lid-lifter, Washington hosts Indianapolis and Green Bay the next weeks trying to better 18-31 ATS home mark.


    AWAY TEAMS


    Keep an eye on (Good):
    For the first three months of the season, Dallas is an exceptional away club and that starts with a 33-18 ATS mark in September. Given their past, going to Carolina (9/9) or Seattle two weeks later would not imposing for the Cowboys.


    Denver is none too shabby either at 28-18 ATS and they get tested only once, at Baltimore on the 23rd. Fellow AFC West partner Kansas City also fits this quality profile at 34-19 ATS. One concern for the Chiefs starting the season is at the Chargers and at the Steelers for first-time starter Patrick Mahomes.


    Bad: It's been a while since the Rams were this good after last season. They are a horrific 16-32 ATS in the road whites and they play the late game in Oakland on MNF, before a three-game homestand.


    Keep an eye on (Bad): New coach, new system, but same old results for Chicago away from the Windy City? The Bears are 19-29 ATS on the road and go to the not so frozen tundra at Lambeau Field on the 9th and to the red-hot Arizona desert on the 23rd.


    As good as Detroit is at home, that's basically home bad they are on the road at 19-31 ATS. At San Fran on a short week in Week 2 won't be easy and likely or will a trip to Big D on the 30th.


    Most years, Pittsburgh labors early and is an unsightly 17-31 ATS on the road. They are often not covering as away favorites and let's see how they do in that role at Cleveland in Week 1 and on the third week of MNF at Tampa Bay.


    FAVORITES


    Keep an eye on (Good):
    Seattle is 31-20 ATS, but they are in transition. There is a chance they might not be a favorite all month, but chances are they will be at least once against @Chicago (9/17), Dallas (9/23) and @Arizona (9/30).


    Bad: For years, the Rams, no matter where they were from, they were a brutal favorite. Their record of 12-30 ATS record explains that, but things could be changing. This L.A. bunch has the young loaded roster and is expected to be favored in all four of their games this month. Nonetheless, paying attention to history still matters.


    Keep an eye on (Bad): Sportsbooks are calling for Arizona to be last in their division, but because of three home games this month, they will be favored at least twice. That might not be good since the Cardinals are only 11-20 ATS, facing Washington (9/9) and Chicago (9/23)


    At 12-23 ATS when handing out points, Carolina is not a pretty play. The Panthers will give points to Dallas in Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 3, both at home.


    Chicago has a similar record to Carolina at 14-23 ATS and will catch Tampa Bay in Week 4 as a fave. Da Bears might be a very small favorite in Week 2 in the Windy City against Seattle, but the prior week's results will determine that.


    UNDERDOGS


    Good:
    Dallas has been a sharp 27-11 ATS in this role they will be around a three-point pooch at Carolina to start the season. The early line had the Cowboys catching points in Seattle (9/23) but that could change.


    Keep an eye on (Good): Kansas City is a nice 29-18 ATS as a September dog and as we start the month, they are receiving digits in two away games at the Chargers (9/9), and Pittsburgh (9/16).


    The Vikings ship also travels well as underdogs at 27-18 ATS and they will be in Green Bay (9/16) and at the Rams on the last Thursday of the month.


    DIVISION


    Keep an eye on (Good): The Chiefs have been well prepared for AFC West action to begin the season with a 24-13 ATS mark. Good chance to improve in Game 1 against the Bolts in L.A.


    Bad: It's Gruden 2.0 in Oakland and at 11-22 ATS versus division competitors, Week 2 at Denver might not be good.


    Keep an eye on (Bad): Chicago is 18-27 ATS this month in the NFC North and it could get worse with a trip to Green Bay on Sunday Night football.
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  12. #12  
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    Top Teams to Watch
    September 5, 2018
    By YouWager.eu


    NFL - Predictions, top picks, teams to avoid



    We are on the brink of the new NFL season, which means that it’s time to take a serious look at the current odds for the 2019 Super Bowl. Specifically, we are going to take a look at the favorites, while also picking a few teams that are among the top picks, but who may actually prove to be a bad pick. Most of us are already aware of the teams that are probably going to be very poor this year, so we won’t be spending any time on the bottom feeders.


    Let’s get right to it, looking at the top teams with a prediction whether to play or avoid. Remember, all betting odds, props and futures are available at YouWager.eu.


    Early Favorites for the 2019 Super Bowl


    New England Patriots +650
    There is a definite sense that the Patriots dynasty is on its last legs, but this team has made a habit of confounding the critics and winning against the odds. The big concern here is that there is finally some dissension in the ranks. You also have a QB, arguably the GOAT, who is now 41, who will be throwing to a group of receivers that appears to have changed from week to week during the preseason. They may yet surprise us, but I would avoid playing the Patriots to win it all.


    Pittsburgh Steelers +1000
    There are some questions surrounding this team, most notably with the status of Leveon Bell, who has yet to sign his franchise tag agreement for this season. He will eventually do so, and the Steelers will be just fine. If the Patriots do take a step back this season, it will most likely be the Pittsburgh that reaps the benefits, which makes me think that they are a team that you should play!



    Philadelphia Eagles +900

    The defending Super Bowl Champions have made some changes that may have made them better than they were last season, but there are still some serious questions about the health of Carson Wentz, who we already know will miss the opening game of the year. Nick Foles was great last season, but can he sustain that level of play if he is asked to take the reins for longer than a couple of weeks? The QB status makes me nervous, making the Eagles one to avoid!


    Green Bay Packers +1400
    Aaron Rodgers got the fat new contract that he wanted, which means he will be looking to come out and prove that he deserves all that green. The Packers look to be loaded, but the big question is whether they can stay healthy. Their last two seasons have been totally derailed because of injuries, and while a third straight season of that seems unlikely, they still make me nervous, hence the avoid status.


    Los Angeles Rams +1000
    This team has spent a lot of money and appears to be all in on making a Super Bowl run. They are certainly loaded, but their one and done in the playoffs last season is something to be concerned about. I do see them making a deep run, but falling short at the Conference Final, which means an avoid pick.


    Minnesota Vikings +1000
    The NFC is absolutely loaded this year and getting out is going to be tough. If any team has what it takes to run that gauntlet, I believe it is the Minnesota Vikings. They have what is arguably the best defense in the league, and they now have a legitimate QB in Kirk Cousins. I like the Vikings to win it all this season, so definitely a play pick.
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    Thursday's Top Wager
    September 5, 2018
    By BetDSI



    By Tom Wilkinson


    NFL Preview – Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles



    The 2018 regular season is finally here, as the Atlanta Falcons visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night in a game that can be seen on NBC.


    The Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champs, but they will not have starting quarterback Carson Wentz for this contest, as Nick Foles will get the start.


    Foles was great in last year’s playoffs and in the Super Bowl, but he wasn’t that good in the regular season and he looked awful in the preseason.


    Let’s look at Thursday’s game and NFL picks.


    Date and Time: Thursday, September 6, 2018, 8:20 p.m. ET
    Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
    NFL Odds : Eagles -1.5, O/U 45
    Falcons vs. Eagles TV Coverage: NBC



    Bettors have been taking the Falcons almost from the word go in this game. The line opened up with the Eagles 4.5-point favorites and the number is down to 1.5. Most of that movement is due to Wentz being out, but there is also the fact that many people expect the Eagles to have a Super Bowl hangover and because Philadelphia simply didn’t look very good in the preseason.


    The Eagles are also expected to be without wide receiver Alshon Jeffery in this contest. Philadelphia may have to rely on their defense to win this one.


    On the other side, the Falcons are supposed to have a high-powered offense led by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones but offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian did his best to screw up the offense last year and he is still the one calling the plays.


    You would think that with Ryan, Jones, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and with rookie Calvin Ridley, that the Falcons would be potent on offense this season, but it is hard to trust Atlanta as long as Sarkisian is on the sideline.


    Matchup to Watch


    I know that many people will focus on Foles in this one, but this game may end up being decided on the other side of the ball. The Eagles want to force the Falcons to throw the ball and that means stopping the run. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will be going up against the Philadelphia run defense.


    The Eagles had the top run defense in the NFL a season ago, giving up just 79.2 rushing yards per game. That defense will face a combination of Freeman and Coleman who combined for over 2100 yards from scrimmage and 16 TDs.


    If the Eagles can stop the run they will put pressure on Ryan to beat them throwing the ball and Ryan has never been great under pressure.


    Key Stats


    The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games. The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.


    Looking at the total, the Under is 7-0 in the Falcons last 7 games overall. The Under is 4-0 in the Falcons last 4 road games. The Under is 4-1 in the Eagles last 5 home games. The Under is 7-3 in the Eagles last 10 games in September. The Under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in this series.


    Falcons vs. Eagles Picks


    There is no question that the public is on the Falcons in this contest and that fact alone has me considering the Eagles. I just don’t know what to expect from Foles, as he is capable of playing great, but more often than not he struggles. I think the better option is to play the total.


    The Falcons are not the high-scoring offense they should be and they are going against a tough Philadelphia defense. On the other side, I can’t see the Eagles scoring a ton of points with Foles at the helm.


    I will go under the total in this Thursday night contest.


    Falcons vs. Eagles Pick: Under 45
    Falcons vs. Eagles Score Prediction: Eagles 20, Falcons 17
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    Falcons-Eagles Capsule
    September 5, 2018
    By The Associated Press



    ATLANTA (11-7) at PHILADELPHIA (16-3)


    Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC


    OPENING LINE - Eagles by 4 1/2


    RECORD VS. SPREAD - Atlanta 8-10, Philadelphia 13-5-1


    SERIES RECORD - Eagles lead 19-14-1


    LAST MEETING - Eagles beat Falcons 15-10, NFC divisional playoff, Jan. 13


    AP PRO32 RANKING - Falcons No. 8, Eagles No. 1


    FALCONS OFFENSE - OVERALL (8), RUSH (13), PASS (8).


    FALCONS DEFENSE - OVERALL (9), RUSH (9), PASS (12).


    EAGLES OFFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (3), PASS (13).


    EAGLES DEFENSE - OVERALL (4), RUSH (1), PASS (17).


    STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Eagles were underdog as No. 1 seed in divisional-round win over Falcons. ... Falcons averaged 22.1 points per game and allowed 19.7 in 2017. ... Falcons averaged 364.8 yards per game and allowed 318.4 and 5.93 yards per play, second highest in franchise history. ... Falcons QB Matt Ryan completed 64.6 percent of passes for 4,095 yards, 20 TDs, 12 picks and 91.4 passer rating. ... RB Devonta Freeman had 865 yards rushing and seven TDs. ... WR Julio Jones caught 88 passes for 1,444 yards and three TDs. ... Freeman and Jones were held out of preseason games. ... RB Tevin Coleman had 927 scrimmage yards and eight TDs. ... Falcons' defense ranked in the top 10 in total yards and scoring for first time since 1998. ... LB Deion Jones had three picks. ... LB Vic Beasley Jr., had two sacks and forced fumble in last meeting. ... Keanu Neal led NFC safeties with 113 tackles. ... K Matt Bryant made 34 of 39 field goals (87.2 percent) and all 35 extra-point tries. ... Eagles coming off first Super Bowl victory in franchise history. ... Doug Pederson tries to become fourth head coach in team history to win three straight season openers. ... Eagles 15-3 at home since 2016. ... Philly finished with second-most points (463) in team history in 2017. ... Eagles tied for first in NFL in point differential (plus 162), led league in rush defense (79.2 yards per game) and ranked first in NFC in turnover differential (plus 11). ... Eagles averaged 28.6 points per game and allowed 18.4. Averaged 365.8 yards per game and allowed 306.5. ... QB Nick Foles was 5-1 filling in for Carson Wentz. Foles was Super Bowl MVP and will start Thursday with Wentz still recovering from knee injury. ... RB Jay Ajayi had 873 yards rushing and one TD combined with Dolphins and Eagles. ... TE Zach Ertz had 74 catches for 824 yards and eight TDs. ... DE Brandon Graham had 9 1/2 sacks in regular season and strip-sack to seal Super Bowl win. ... K Jake Elliott made 26 of 31 field goals (83.8 percent) and 39 of 42 extra points. ... Fantasy Tip: Jones has 500 yards receiving vs. Eagles in past four games, including nine catches for 101 yards with 16 targets in playoff game.
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    Week 1


    Thursday


    Falcons @ Eagles—
    Last 15 years, Super Bowl champs are 8-4-3 vs spread in their first game the next year; they’re 3-3 SU the last six years. Philly is 6-3 in its last nine games vs Atlanta, beating Falcons 15-10 in playoffs LY, blanking Atlanta in 2nd half. Falcons lost eight of last nine visits here, with three of those losses in playoffs. Eagles are 5-4 vs spread as home favorites under Pederson; under is 14-9 in their home games last three years. Falcons are 8-3 as road underdogs under Quinn; under is 18-12 in their road games last four years. Under is 10-3 in Falcons’ last 13 road openers. Eagles won three of last four home openers. Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home openers. Matt Ryan is from Philly, so this is a homecoming for him. Nick Foles gets start at QB for the Iggles, with Wentz still not 100% after knee surgery.




    THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 6
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS



    ATL at PHI 08:20 PM
    PHI -1.5
    U 44.5
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    Good luck today!
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    Eagles down Falcons in ugly opener
    September 6, 2018



    PHILADELPHIA (AP) Matt Ryan to Julio Jones failed again.


    Jay Ajayi had a pair of touchdown runs, Nick Foles caught another pass to jump-start a sputtering offense and the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles needed another defensive stand to open the season with an 18-12 victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night.


    A sloppy, mistake-filled game that featured 26 penalties came down to Ryan throwing an incomplete pass to Jones in the left corner of the end zone on the final play from Philadelphia's 5.


    Jones couldn't come down with Ryan's pass from the 2 in the right corner of the end zone in Atlanta's 15-10 loss in the divisional round in January.


    A weather delay pushed the kickoff back 45 minutes, forcing fans to wait for the unveiling of the ''world champions'' banner following the franchise's first Super Bowl victory. Wearing his gold Hall of Fame jacket, former safety Brian Dawkins riled up the sellout crowd with owner Jeffrey Lurie by his side and led a chorus of ''Fly Eagles Fly.''


    The defense fed off that energy with a strong goal-line stand on the opening series, stopping the Falcons three times at the 1.


    They did it again at the end.


    After Ajayi's 11-yard TD run and 2-point conversion gave the Eagles a lead with 2:25 left, Ryan led the Falcons down the field. He completed a 36-yard pass to Jones and connected with him again for 18 yards on third-and-17.


    The Falcons had a first down at the 10 but Ryan threw four straight incomplete passes. But a penalty on Jordan Hicks gave them one more chance and the Eagles held again.


    Needing a spark on offense, Eagles coach Doug Pederson resorted to the ''Philly Special'' play that helped the Eagles beat the New England Patriots 41-33 in the Super Bowl. This time, Foles caught a 15-yard pass from Nelson Agholor to extend a drive that ended with Ajayi scoring a go-ahead 1-yard TD run in the third quarter.


    Foles, the Super Bowl MVP still filling in for Carson Wentz, played it safe and the offense was conservative until Pederson turned to his favorite play on third-and-5 midway through the third quarter. Corey Clement took a toss and flipped to Agholor, who threw it to Foles running open down the right side for a gain to the Falcons 26.


    Foles hit Zach Ertz for 18 yards on third-and-6 and Ajayi ran in a few plays later to put Philadelphia up 10-6.


    Against New England, tight end Trey Burton took a flip from Clement on a reverse and threw a 1-yard TD pass to Foles to give the Eagles a 10-point halftime lead.


    Philadelphia's defense overcame a pair of blunders to temporarily preserve the lead. Tre Sullivan kicked a loose ball on a punt and the Falcons recovered the fumble at the Eagles 32. A sack by Fletcher Cox on third down was negated by Derek Barnett's offside penalty to keep the drive going. But Rasul Douglas intercepted Ryan's pass at the 4.


    Deion Jones then intercepted Foles' pass that bounced out of Dallas Goedert's hands and returned it 20 yards to Philadelphia's 27, setting up Tevin Coleman's 9-yard TD run that gave the Falcons a 12-10 lead in the fourth quarter. Matt Bryant hit the right post on the extra point.


    On a hot, muggy night, it looked more like an August preseason game than a playoff rematch. Both teams looked rusty after many starters didn't play much in preseason. It didn't compare to the action in Kansas City's 42-27 victory at New England in the 2017 NFL opener.


    Bryant kicked field goals of 52 and 21 yards in the first quarter.


    ANTHEM


    Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins and defensive end Michael Bennett were on the sideline when the national anthem was played. Jenkins raised his fist during ''The Star-Spangled Banner'' last year and in the first preseason game. He stayed in the tunnel for the last three weeks. Bennett mostly stayed off the field in the preseason. He wandered behind teammates near the bench and adjusted his equipment this time.


    INJURIES


    Falcons: S Keanu Neal left the game with a knee injury in the first half. ... LS Josh Harris had his streak of 103 consecutive games played end because of a hip injury.


    Eagles: WR Mack Hollins was placed on injured reserve hours before the game because of a groin injury.


    UP NEXT


    Falcons: Host the Carolina Panthers on Sept. 16.


    Eagles: Visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sept. 16.
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    Sunday, September 9, 2018


    Time (ET) Away Home
    1:00 PM Buffalo Bills Baltimore Ravens
    1:00 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Cleveland Browns
    1:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals Indianapolis Colts
    1:00 PM Tennessee Titans Miami Dolphins
    1:00 PM San Francisco 49ers Minnesota Vikings
    1:00 PM Houston Texans New England Patriots
    1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints
    1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars New York Giants
    4:05 PM Kansas City Chiefs Los Angeles Chargers
    4:25 PM Washington Redskins Arizona Cardinals
    4:25 PM Dallas Cowboys Carolina Panthers
    4:25 PM Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos
    8:20 PM Chicago Bears Green Bay Packers


    Monday, September 10, 2018
    Time (ET) Away Home
    7:10 PM New York Jets Detroit Lions
    10:20 PM Los Angeles Rams Oakland Raiders




    *************************


    DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


    09/06/2018 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00




    BEST BETS:


    DATE.......................ATS................UNITS................O/U..................UNITS..................TOTAL


    09/06/2018............1 - 0................+5.00................1 - 0.................+5.00................+10.00
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    Week 1


    Steelers @ Browns— Since re-joining the NFL in 1999, Browns started season 0-1 18 out of 19 years; they’re 3-12 vs spread in last 15 Week 1 home games. Steelers won their last six games with Cleveland, taking last three by 3-3-4 points- they won four of last six meetings here, with three of four wins by 16+ points. Since 2015, Pitt is 14-9 vs spread as a road favorite- under is 23-7-1 in their last 31 road games. Browns are 4-15-1 vs spread in last 20 games as home underdogs; under is 12-3 in their last 15 home games. Pitt lost five of last seven road openers; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11. Steelers had a special teams TD in both series games LY. Haley is Cleveland’s new OC; he had same job for Steelers the last six years.

    49ers @ Vikings
    — Minnesota’s OL coach Sparano died unexpectedly this summer; the OL also has injury issues now. Home side won 11 of last 12 series games; 49ers lost last five games in the Twin Cities, with three losses by 11+ points. Vikings are 5-2 in last seven series games; four of last five series totals were 37 or less. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 18-5-1 as home favorites; under is 19-13 in their home games the last four years. 49ers were 5-2 as road underdogs LY in Shanahan’s first season, after being 7-13-1 from ’13-’16. Over is 15-9 in SF road games the last three years. Minnesota won/covered its last three home openers. Cousins will be Minnesota’s 11th different #1 QB the last 15 years, 4th in last four years.


    Bengals @ Colts— Home side won last eight series games; Bengals lost their last eight visits here, with last visit a ’14 playoff game- their last win here was in ’97. Since 2012, Cincy is 17-12-2 as a road underdog; under is 21-11 in their last 32 road games. Colts are 12-9-1 in last 22 games as home favorites; under is 17-7 in their last 24 home games. Bengals open on road for 8th time in last nine years; over is 8-1 in their last nine road openers. Colts lost their last four home openers, three by 4 or fewer points. Indy started season 0-1 seven of last eight years- they’re 1-9 vs spread in Week 1 the last ten years. Luck’s return at QB is a huge boost for the Colts.


    Bills @ Ravens— Peterman is Buffalo’s starting QB here; he was 1-1 in two starts LY, throwing five INT’s in a half in a horrific 54-24 loss to the Chargers, then beating Colts 13-7 in a December home game. Home side won last six series games; last four were all decided by 6 or fewer points. Bills lost last four visits here, by 14-12-3-6 points. Since ’12, Ravens are 16-22-1 vs spread as home favorites; under is 19-13-1 in their last 33 road games. Since ’14, Buffalo 14-9-1 as road underdogs; under is 19-13 in their road games. Ravens won 11 of last 13 home openers; under is 4-1 in last five of those. Bills made playoffs LY for first time in 19 years, but QB Taylor is gone; top draft pick Josh Allen is Peterman’s backup.


    Jaguars @ Giants— Last five years, Jags are 3-17 vs spread when playing an NFC team. Home side won all six series games; Jaguars are 0-3 vs Giants here, losing by 3-7-4 points- they’re 3-6 vs Jets in Garden State, so 3-9 overall in the Swamp. This will be first time in six years Big Blue opens the season at home; Giants lost five of their last six home openers (0-6 vs spread); five of those six games stayed under. Since ’15, Big Blue is 7-4 vs spread as home underdogs; under is 10-6 in their home games the last two years. Since ’12, Jaguars are 2-3 as road favorites; over is 28-20 in their road games the last six years. Giants are one of four NFL teams (Bills, Dallas, Panthers) whose backup QB’s have zero NFL starts.


    Buccaneers @ Saints— No Jameis Winston (suspended) for Bucs; Fitzpatrick (48-70-1 as NFL starter) gets the nod at QB- Tulane alum Griffin is his backup. Saints are 10-3 in last 13 series games, but last six were split. Bucs lost six of last seven visits to Big Easy, with four of six losses by 11+ points. Under Koetter, Tampa Bay is 7-6-1 as road underdogs; since 2011, over is 29-26-2 in their road games. Since ’14, NO is 10-15-1 as a home favorite; over is 21-11 in their home games last four years. Saints lost their last three home openers; they started last four seasons 0-1. Saints scored special teams TD in both meetings vs Tampa Bay LY. Last five years, Bucs are 7-13-1 vs spread on artificial turf.


    Texans @ Patriots— Last 15 years, Super Bowl loser is 2-13 vs spread in their first game the following season, 2-10 when favored. Patriots are 14-2 SU in last 16 home openers, but just 1-5 vs spread in last six. Houston is 0-6 in Foxboro, with five of six losses by 13+ points; they’re 1-9 overall vs Patriots, losing last seven- they lost 36-33 here LY. Texans are 11-15-1 in last 27 games as road underdogs; under is 9-6-1 in their road games last two years. Since ’13, Patriots are 23-10-3 as home favorites; Over is 41-23 in their home games the last eight years. Texans open on road for only 2nd time in last 10 years; they won seven of last nine road openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven season openers. Over was 5-1 in QB Watson’s six starts last year.


    Titans @ Dolphins— Tennessee made playoffs LY for first time in nine years, won a playoff game, then fired the head coach; not sure why. Teams split last six meetings; Titans won two of last three visits here. LY, Miami beat Tennessee 16-10 here, in game where neither team gained 200 total yards. Since 2012, Dolphins are 12-7-2 vs spread as home underdogs; over is 11-4 in their last 15 home games. Since ’14, Tennessee is 2-5-1 as a road favorite; over is 14-10 in their road games the last three years. Titans are 9-2 vs spread in last 11 road openers; under is 16-5 in their last 21 road openers. Tannehill is back at QB for Miami, after missing all of LY; his record as a starting QB is 37-40.


    Chiefs @ Chargers— 2nd career start for KC’s new QB Mahomes; he won the first one in Denver last December. Chiefs won last eight series games, with three of four wins in Golden State by 10+ points. Chiefs are 12-9 as road underdogs under Reid; over is 13-9-1 in their road games last three years. Since ’11, Chargers are 15-21 as home favorites; under was 6-2 in their home games LY, their first year playing home games in Carson. KC is on road three of first four weeks this season, with a QB who has started one NFL game- they won that game 27-24. Bolts covered five of their last six home openers; over is 12-3 in their last 15. Last three years, KC was a combined +45 in turnover margin; with Alex Smith gone, can they maintain that?


    Seahawks @ Broncos— Seattle won three of last four series games, but lost seven of last eight visits here; since 2011, Seahawks are 13-8-6 vs spread as road underdogs. Under is 15-9 in their road games last three years. Since ’15, Broncos are 5-9-2 vs spread as home favorites; under is 12-10-1 in their last 23 home games. Denver opens at home for 8th year in row; they’re 26-3 SU in last 29 home openers, 6-3 vs spread in last nine. Seahawks open on road for 6th time in last eight years; they lost their first road game 10 of last 11 years; they’re 1-12 vs spread in last 13 road openers. Last couple years, Seahawks are 2-6-1 vs spread on natural grass.


    Cowboys @ Panthers— Norv Turner coaching Cam Newton’s offense will be fascinating. Home side lost five of last six series games; Dallas is 9-4 overall vs Carolina, 5-2 in Charlotte- both losses were playoff games. Under Garrett, Dallas is 21-14 as a road underdog; under is 17-6 in their last 23 road games. Last two years, Carolina is 5-8 as a home favorite; under is 23-16-1 in their last 40 home games. Panthers open at home for only 2nd time in last seven years; they’re 0-5 last five times they started season at home. Carolina’s last Week 1 home win was in 2003. Dallas covered nine of last 11 road openers. Cowboys have some injury issues on OL and a rookie kicker. Panthers’ T Kalil is out for first weeks of season.


    Redskins @ Cardinals— Both teams have new QB; Arizona has new coach, too- he was with the Panthers for six years, was DC last year. Redskins’ QB Smith is 88-62-1 as an NFL starter, injury-prone Bradford is 34-45-1- he played only two games LY for Minnesota. Home side won last six series games; Redskins are 9-2 in last 11 games vs Arizona, but lost 30-20/31-23 in last two visits here- they beat Redbirds 20-15 (-4) at home LY. Last three years, Arizona is 10-13-1 vs spread at home; under is 19-12-1 in their last 32 home games. Under Gruden, Redskins are 16-16 vs spread on road; over is 17-7 in their last 24 road games.


    Bears @ Packers— Green Bay is 14-2 in last 16 games in this ancient rivalry, winning last four by 16-3-17-7 points, but Bears split last four visits to Lambeau. Last two years, Bears are 4-10-1 as road underdogs- under is 10-5-1 in their last 16 road games. Since ’14, Packers are 17-8-2 as a home favorite; under is 15-9 in their last 24 home games. Chicago opens on road for only 2nd time in last nine years; they’re 2-5 in last seven road openers. Under is 12-2 in their last 14 road openers. Packers won 10 of their last 11 home openers. Chicago’s new OC is former Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich, who has zero NFL experience; DC Fangio has been in Chicago since 2015, so he is familiar with Green Bay.


    Monday


    Jets @ Lions
    — Rookie QB Darnold becomes youngest QB in last 48 years to start in Week 1. Detroit coach Patricia should be familiar with Jet offense from his days coaching Patriots’ defense. Jets are 6-7 vs Detroit, but won three of last four meetings; they’re 4-3 in Motor City, winning last visit here in OT. Since 2014, Detroit is 14-5-2 as home favorites; under is 29-19 in their home games last six years. Under Bowles, Jets are 3-8-3 as road underdogs; under is 15-8 in their last 23 road games. Lions won five of their last seven home openers; over is 6-2 in their last eight. Detroit started season 1-0 six of last seven years. Jets are 15-6 vs spread in last 21 road openers. Patricia is a defensive coach; will Lions try to run ball more, to protect the defense?


    Rams @ Raiders— Gruden returns to sidelines after 10 years away. Raiders are 8-5 against the Rams, but lost last meeting 52-0 in St Louis— lot has changed for both sides since. Rams are 2-5 in series road games. Since 2012, Oakland is 10-16-1 as a home underdog- under is 22-9 in their last 31 home games. Rams are 7-5 vs spread as favorites LY, 4-2 on road; over was 7-1 in their road games LY. Raiders lost four of last six home openers, last four of which went over the total. Rams are 2-14 in last 16 road openers, 3-15 vs spread in last 18- they did win their road opener LY. Goff’s dad played for the SF Giants; this is a homecoming for him. Rams signed star DT Donald; Raiders traded their holdout star DE Mack to the Bears.
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    Top 6 picks in the Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest

    Top 6 picks in the 3,123 entries

    1) Bengals +3 (1,218 picked them)

    2) Rams -4 (1,052)

    3) Ravens -7.5 (907)

    4) Vikings -6.5 (854)

    5) Texans +6.5 (848)

    6) Broncos -3 (807)
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    Essentials - Week 1
    Tony Mejia

    Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Cleveland has won two of the last 43 games, failing to come out ahead in 17 straight contests. The Browns were actually favored once last year and were an underdog of only three points or fewer three other times, but this number is still lower than one would normally expect. Is there a “Hard Knocks” influence in this line? Cleveland has been favored in all four preseason games, winning three outright. Top pick Baker Mayfield will sit behind Tyrod Taylor, who will have Josh Gordon at his disposal. The talented receiver won’t start but should factor in substantially behind Jarvis Landry and rookie Antonio Callaway. Coming off a well-publicized suspension, he’s overcome a hamstring issue that kept him from practicing much this preseason. Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb should make for a formidable running back tandem, so we’ll see if Todd Haley can secure immediate dividends as offensive coordinator of his new group against a defense he faced daily in practice for the last six seasons.

    The Pittsburgh offense will have to solve a defense that has looked fantastic under Gregg Williams, who has no problem blitzing teams in the preseason when others take a more vanilla approach. Former No. 1 pick Myles Garrett has looked tremendous and others have had an excellent run leading up to this season opener, but it remains to be seen what effect cutting LB Mychal Kendricks will have after he was charged with insider training. The Steelers will be without Le’Veon Bell, who hadn’t reported to the team as of Friday due to a contract dispute. James Conner, a second-year back out of Pitt who ran for just 144 yards as a rookie will start in Bell’s place. Antonio Brown will be out there as Ben Roethlisberger’s top target despite dealing with a quad issue while veteran guard Ramon Foster has also been upgraded to probable after dealing with a knee injury. After calling out Bell, the offensive line is expected to try and ball out for Conner, so we’ll see how they fare against an improved Cleveland pass rush. The Browns haven’t won a season opener since 2004 and are 3-14 against the number in the last 17 meetings against the Steelers in Cleveland and are 1-9 straight up in their last 10, part of a run that has seen them prevail in only four of 35 encounters with their AFC North rival since 2001. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has won its last 10 divisional games.

    San Francisco at Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo won all five of his starts last season but faces his biggest test with one of the NFL’s top defenses getting the past month-plus to prepare for him with plenty of tape to study. We’ll see what tendencies the Vikings can identify and potentially exploit and will have CB Xavier Rhodes (hamstring) in the mix and rookie Mike Hughes in a heightened role since Mackensie Alexander is listed as doubtful. The Vikes won’t have to deal with former teammate Jerick McKinnon, who signed on in the offseason but tore his ACL, leaving all the carries to veteran Alfred Morris and second-year back Matt Breida.

    Minnesota upgraded its quarterback by handing Kirk Cousins a massive contract and also welcomes Dalvin Cook back from injury, so we’ll see how the offense takes shape. Adam Thielen has been cleared after rolling his left ankle last week, so the major question mark for the Vikings’ offense comes up front since center Pat Eflein has been ruled out and Nick Easton was lost for the season with a neck injury. Brett Jones will start. The 49ers will be without top linebacker Reuben Foster, who is serving a two-game suspension. Arik Armstead will be out there despite a hamstring issue and will be out there trying to wreak havoc along the defensive line with fellow first-round picks Solomon Thomas and DeForest Buckner. San Francisco has lost its last five games in Minnesota. The Vikings have won their last six home games and are 13-4 at U.S. Bank Stadium. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two.

    Cincinnati at Indianapolis, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: After squaring off in the preseason finale, these neighbors kick off the season with Andrew Luck’s return taking center stage. After missing all of 2017, he will face an aggressive defense that will be missing their leader with Vontaze Burfict suspended for the first four games. Luck participated in the preseason but the Colts put very little on display and will be working with a young offensive line that requires No. 6 pick Quenton Nelson to perform well immediately. The run game is also a question mark with mainstay Frank Gore gone and Marlon Mack questionable with a hamstring issue. Tackle Anthony Castonzo (hamstring) should play but Denzelle Good won’t, so conditions aren’t exactly ideal for Luck to feel like he’ll be protected in his first regular-season game in 20 months.

    The Bengals have a new defensive coordinator in the very competent Teryl Austin, but this group has seen their level diminish without Burfict in the past. We’ll see how Austin compensates. Andy Dalton will start his eighth consecutive season opener for Cincy and will again have A.J. Green, but the passing game finally gets deep threat John Ross out there after he missed most of his rookie season with knee and shoulder issues after fumbling on his first snap. Tight end Tyler Eifert has also returned from a back issue, so we’ll see the offense at full strength in Bill Lazor’s second season as the coordinator. Indianapolis has won eight of 11 against the Bengals.

    Buffalo at Baltimore, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: A.J. McCarron was traded and Josh Allen was beaten out for the starting gig by Nathan Peterman, whose rookie season was marred by throwing interceptions every time he tried to get something accomplished. LeSean McCoy wasn’t suspended for his offseason drama and WR Kelvin Benjamin has had an entire preseason with his new team. New coordinator Brian Daboll will match wits with Don Martindale, the long-time linebackers coach who is taking over the defense from Dean Pees. He’ll have to make up for the absence of Jimmy Smith (suspension), but has a unit that returns almost everyone and actually stayed healthy throughout camp.

    Lamar Jackson should debut in some capacity since the Ravens have been experimenting with packages that can take advantage of his speed and elusiveness. Joe Flacco took to the increased competition from the rookie first-round pick and Robert Griffin III and had his sharpest camp in years, developing chemistry with new receiving weapons Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead. Flacco’s 141.4 passer rating topped all NFL quarterbacks in the preseason. It’s expected to rain most of the weekend in the Baltimore area, so be sure to check the forecast before placing a wager here. Buffalo has dropped four straight at the Big Crabcake and has only won three of its last 11 road games.

    Jacksonville at N.Y. Giants, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: New York opened last season as a Super Bowl contender before Odell Beckham, Jr. was injured and the bottom fell out on the Ben McAdoo era. Pat Shurmur, who has run the offense for Minnesota and Philadelphia over the past few years, will team with Mike Shula to get the most out of an offense set to debut No. 2 pick Saquon Barkley at running back in order to take pressure off 15-year veteran Eli Manning. Barkley has been dealing with a hamstring issue and tight end Evan Engram has come through concussion protocol, but the Giants are still thin at tackle and may have issues blocking against one of the NFL’s top defenses. Beckham’s duel with standout Jags corner Jalen Ramsey will get the most attention, but there are other crititcal matchups that could decide this one.

    New York must find a way to harass Blake Bortles into turnovers despite missing Olivier Vernon, who was expected to be a standout in a new look 3-4. Rookie Lorenzo Carter, a third-round pick out of Georgia, will be cast in a huge role as a result. The Jags will rely on a slimmer Leonard Fournette to try and slow down New York’s pass rush and will likely utilize a heavy dose of the ground game due to potential showers being part of the forecast. Jacksonville has gone 5-1 against the number in its last six games against the Giants but will need new receivers to step up against a secondary that on paper, appears to be the strength of the defense. We’ll see if young options like Dede Westbrook and rookie DJ Chark can rise up to keep the Jags from being one-dimensional.

    Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The week’s biggest favorite saw their advantage grow when final injury reports were released on Friday since it appears that top corner Brent Grimes will be unable to shake off a groin injury in order to play. With backup De’Vante Harris (hamstring) also doubtful, the Bucs will be thin and young at corner going on the road against a quarterback that doesn’t need help taking healthy secondaries apart. Rookies Carlton Davis and M.J. Stewart will play large roles and face a baptism by fire. First-round pick Vita Vea hasn’t played due to a calf injury, so the Bucs won’t have the No. 12 pick who they envisioned being disruptive. The Saints will be missing RB Mark Ingram to a four-game suspension but should have starting guard Andrus Peat (guard) in the mix up front to help block for Brees and open holes for Alvin Kamara.

    With Jameis Winston suspended for the first three games of the season, it will be on Ryan Fitzpatrick to try to help Tampa Bay’s offense keep pace with the Saints. The 14-year veteran will lean on Mike Evans, who has a checkered history with corner Marshon Lattimore, so keep an eye on that matchup. The Bucs saw No. 38 pick Ronald Jones (USC) gain just 22 yards on 28 preseason carries, dampening enthusiasm over his addition and solidifying Peyton Barber as the starter. Tampa Bay has lost its last seven games as a road underdog but New Orleans have won only one of its last 10 September games. That includes an 0-4 record SU and ATS at home in the Superdome. The Saints have won 10 of 13 in this series since Nov. 2011.

    Houston at New England, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Tom Brady vs. Deshaun Watson to start the season provides an awfully juicy matchup pairing the game’s top quarterback against one of the most promising young prospects and potential heirs to the throne. Last year’s contest produced a 36-33 The contrast in their styles adds to the entertainment value, especially since Brady will have to deal with a healthy J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney on the hunt as he tries to work. He may not have left tackle Marcus Cannon available to help keep his uniform clean, although the calf injury that kept him out this preseason has healed enough for him to participate in practices this week. Brady probably won’t have rookie RB Sony Michel in the mix but will otherwise have a loaded arsenal of weapons that includes new toys like Jeremy Hill and Cordarrelle Patterson in addition to Rob Gronkowski, James White, Rex Burkhead Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett. The Texans will have starting corner Kevin Johnson available after he cleared concussion protocol, but veteran Kayvon Webster, signed to a one-year deal to improve depth, isn’t ready to contribute yet. Safety Andre Hal and rookie corner Jermain Kelly are out.

    Bill Belichick has Josh McDaniels back to run the offense after he reneged on Indianapolis’ head coaching job but will be breaking in a new defensive coordinator with Brian Flores running plays. Houston’s Bill O’Brien is expected to hold back little with Deshaun Watson at 100 percent and will look to make the Patriots work by ensuring his quarterback takes advantage of his opportunities to run. Watson threw for 301 yards against New England last season and ran for another 41 against a defense that has had its issues early in seasons of late. Watson’s chances of lighting up the Pats again would improve if Will Fuller is able to be a factor. He’s a game-time decision due to a hamstring injury. The Texans have lost seven straight in this series and have won only once in 10 career meetings.

    Tennessee at Miami, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Ryan Tannehill’s ill-timed ACL tear sabotaged Miami last season, forcing them to turn to Jay Cutler. He took part in preseason action, throwing for a score while not committing a turnover, but this is going to be a major test right out of the box. Tennessee will have an aggressive defensive game plan in place with head coach Mike Vrabel and veteran coordinator Dean Pees joining forces. The Dolphins are hoping that Kenyan Drake can emerge as a workhorse and have veteran Frank Gore and rookie Kalen Ballage on board, so we might see a major emphasis on the ground game in this one in order to ease Tannehill in and survive the absence of top WR DeVante Parker, who is sitting with a finger injury. Danny Amendola should factor in heavily in his debut. Tennessee got bad news with safety Kendrick Lewis (foot) and rookie LBs Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry ruled out. The secondary already lost safety Jonathan Cyprien for the season early in camp. DE Derrick Morgan will play.

    Titans tight end Delanie Walker, Marcus Mariota’s security blanket, is going to play after sitting out the preseason to rest his toe. The Dolphins struggled to cover that position well last season, so Walker and FIU product Jonnu Smith could feature prominently. The offensive line will be without starting tackle Jack Conklin, so they’ll be relying on veteran backup Dennis Kelly to help create space for Mariota, Derrick Henry and newcomer Dion Lewis, who should provide a versatile threat out of the backfield. Tennessee went winless and didn’t cover this preseason so the team is looking for its first taste of success under the new leadership. Thunderstorms are a possibility in South Florida but likely won’t factor in until late in the game if at all.

    Kansas City at L.A. Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Patrick Mahomes II won his first start last season in a meaningless Week 17 game, so he’s got that experience to draw on as he takes over as Kansas City’s starting quarterback. That victory came in Denver, so he’s performed on the road and won’t have to deal with much of an atmosphere in Carson since the StubHub Center offers the Chargers the least significant homefield edge in the NFL. Mahomes also won’t have to deal with top Chargers pass rusher Joey Bosa, who will miss the game with a foot injury. Corey Liuget is serving a four-game suspension and the secondary has already lost a few key bodies, so a few factors have lineup in his favor as he looks to build on the success Alex Smith enjoyed. The presumption is that the Chiefs may take a step back due to his inexperience and proclivity for mistakes, but the arm talent he brings to the table could help push weapons like Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill to another level.

    Philip Rivers has plenty of help to try and put the Chargers over the top following a frustrating season that saw his team go 1-4 in games decided by three or fewer points. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams available in addition to Tyrell Williams and RB Melvin Gordon, L.A. should be able to put up points against a secondary that struggled last season and traded Marcus Peters to the Rams. He picked off Rivers twice in the last meeting between these teams. Starting safety Daniel Sorensen is out with a knee injury and veteran Eric Berry is doubtful due to a heel issue. Those absences put Kansas City’s streak of eight consecutive victories against their AFC West rival in jeopardy. The Chiefs have won 16 of 17 within the division under Andy Reid.

    Seattle at Denver, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Case Keenum will attempt to solidify the quarterback position for Denver, which has gone 14-18 since winning Super Bowl 50. Paxton Lynch is unemployed, Trevor Siemian is a backup in Minnesota and Brock Osweiler is doing the same in Miami, so all the bad men are gone. Although C.J. Anderson and Aqib Talib will be missed, a younger determined group will look to keep Vance Joseph off the chopping block, which will likely hinge on a strong start to the season. Rookie Royce Freeman will start ahead of Devontae Booker, while Adam Jones is going to start in Talib’s spot and probably return punts after asking for Champ Bailey’s number in an attempt to “honor” his legacy. Denver lost each of its preseason home games but won the last two, looking impressive in a dress rehearsal win at the Redskins.

    Seattle is reloading on the run, moving on from the Legion of Boom era but still clinging to one key component with Earl Thomas ending his holdout. He’s returned to practices and is considered a game-time decision in this season opener but will likely play. Rookie Shaquem Griffin has been announced as a starter for a new-look defense that saw Kam Chancellor retire, LB K.J. Wright and DE Dion Jordan ruled out due to injuries and numerous other contributors like Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, Sheldon Richardson and Cliff Avril no longer around. Ken Norton, Jr., who didn’t have much success as a defensive coordinator in Oakland, takes over those duties this season. It remains to be seen if new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer opens things up for Russell Wilson given the uncertainty surrounding the defense, but that hasn’t been his history. Top target Doug Baldwin (knee) and rookie running back Rashaad Penny (finger) will both be available. The Seahawks have dropped their last six September road games, failing to cover any of them. Conversely, Denver is 8-1 SU (7-1-1 ATS) at home over the last few years in the season’s opening month and has won 17 of 24 against the Seahawks.

    Dallas at Carolina, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Over the past few seasons, Dallas’ strength has been an offensive line that has created opportunities for Tony Romo and Dak Prescott while giving Ezekiel Elliott a lot of room to work. As the 2018 season begins, that advantage appears to have diminished. Center Travis Frederick is out with Guillain-Barre syndrome, experiencing numbness in his feet, hands and arms. Replacement Joe Looney has never started at center. Rookie Connor Williams will start at left guard with Chaz Green no longer around. Zack Martin will be available but has been struggling with a knee injury. With Dez Bryant gone, Prescott will have to make the aerial attack work with Tavon Austin, Allen Hurns and rookie Michael Gallup. Can tight end Rico Gathers take the next step in his development?

    The Panthers will go as far as Cam Newton takes them, but he’s got offensive line issues of his own to contend with. They’ll be looking to execute a new offense with veteran Norv Turner at the helm, going up against a familiar face in good friend Jason Garrett and his one-time former employer. Left tackle Matt Kalil is on IR, while right tackle Daryl Williams is questionable after tearing his MCL and dislocating his patella back in the team’s first practice. Guard Amini Silatolu is also questionable with a knee issue. The addition of C.J. Anderson, Torrey Smith and rookie WR DJ Moore give Newton help, while Christian McCaffrey sowed off increased explosiveness in the preseason. Carolina has won 24 of its last 30 in Charlotte, where thunderstorms may be a part of the equation late Sunday afternoon.

    Washington at Arizona, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Arizona begins the Steve Wilks era against visiting Washington, turning the keys over to newcomer Sam Bradford, who will play mentor to top pick Josh Rosen until the time is right to pass the torch. Or until he gets hurt, which let’s face it, is a strong possibility since he hasn’t played all 16 games of a season since 2012. He was the NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance in last year’s season opener, a Monday night home win over New Orleans, and had a solid preseason. David Johnson is returning from a wrist injury that cost him most of 2017, but center AQ Shipley already landed on IR, complicating matters since the ‘Skins arrive with an aggressive defense that can do a lot of damage with Alabama products Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne up front.

    Alex Smith will make his first start with his new team, likely with Adrian Peterson lined up behind him on his first snap from scrimmage. Few could’ve seen that coming. Rookie second-round pick Derrius Guice tore his ACL in early August, so Peterson was signed to try and handle some of the workload with versatile back Chris Thompson also due to see extensive action. Tight ends Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis are also expected to see major roles as the offense takes on a new personality after Kirk Cousins moved along. Washington has won nine of 11 against the Cardinals.

    Chicago at Green Bay, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC: Chicago will have LBs Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith in the lineup but both are likely to be on a pitch count due to a lack of preparation time with the Bears and veteran coordinator Vic Fangio. Leonard Floyd (hand) is also expected to play, so the Packers and their opposition going forward will have to contend with a special group once everyone gets settled. Green Bay is fortunate in that it gets to host this game and face this defense before they’ve had a chance to truly come together, so Aaron Rodgers has an opportunity to start strong. He’ll have tackles Bryan Bulaga (knee) and David Bakhtiari (ankle) in the mix in front of him and his entire receiving corps available despite losing Jordy Nelson.

    The Bears are looking for growth from second-year QB Mitch Trubisky, who has himself two potential No. 1 receivers in newcomer Allen Robinson and rookie Anthony Miller out of Memphis. The 51st pick was fantastic in the preseason and could quickly emerge next to the former Jaguars standout, while Josh Bellamy and Taylor Gabriel are also on board alongside versatile tight end Trey Burton and backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. The ingredients are there for first-year head coach Matt Nagy to put together a quick turnaround. Chicago has dropped nine consecutive games against NFC North competition and runs into a Green Bay squad that has won 16 of its last 19 September home games (13-5-1 ATS) and is 16-3 SU against the Bears since 2009, scoring 20 or more points in only six of those 19 contests. Conditions at Lambeau should be cool on a crisp, clear night where temperatures will dip into the low 50s.
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  22. #22  
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    Total Talk - Week 1
    Chris David

    The 2018 NFL regular season is underway and total bettors playing the ‘under’ in last Thursday’s opener between the Eagles and Falcons were treated to a wire-to-wire winner.

    Philadelphia captured an 18-12 victory at home and ‘under’ 44 ½ was never in doubt. Even though the betting public usually leans high in the nationally televised primetime games, this game was bet down from an opener of 47 and the move was certainly right.

    Fifteen games left in Week 1 and plenty to discuss.

    Line Moves and Public Leans

    Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 1 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

    Pittsburgh at Cleveland: 47 to 41
    Buffalo at Baltimore: 42 ½ to 40 ½
    Dallas at Carolina: 44 to 42 ½

    The offshore outfit opened their numbers in late April, one of the first books to do so and the lines have held steady outside of the Browns-Steelers matchup. A lot of the downward movement on this game came this week when hopes of Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell returning to the lineup were diminished.

    Listed below are the largest betting trend percentages per the VI Matchup index as of Saturday.

    Steelers-Browns: Under 86%
    Bills-Ravens: Under 85%
    Jaguars-Giants: Under 82%
    Rams-Raiders: Under 77%
    Titans-Dolphins: Under 75%

    It’s a little surprising to see this many low-side leans knowing most bettors lean to ‘over’ tickets but I could certainly see the argument for the five leans above.

    Fifty Something

    Even though a lot of pundits believe scoring will increase this season due to the new rule changes helping offensive units, we only have one Week 1 total listed in the fifties.

    That matchup takes place in Foxboro between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. The two teams met last season in Week 3 from Gillette Stadium and ‘over’ (44 ½) bettors cashed an easy ticket with New England holding off Houston 33-30.

    That game was the coming-out party for Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson, who lit up New England for 342 total yards and two touchdowns. In six games as starter before his knee injury, the Texans averaged 34.6 points per game. Watson is certainly a huge ‘wildcard’ this season but if healthy and back to last year’s form, it’s certainly hard to imagine a huge drop-off in 2018.

    New England was a tough team to figure out last season from a totals perspective. They started 2017 with four ‘over’ winners in a row but the defense improved and the ‘under’ closed the regular season on a 9-3 run. The ‘over’ went 2-1 in the postseason and the last thing bettors recall is New England making Eagles backup QB Nick Foles look like an all-time great. Watching him on Thursday versus the Falcons and in the preseason, it’s safe to say that we agree Foles shouldn’t be placed in that echelon.

    Historically, this series has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in the 10 meetings between the pair and the Patriots have averaged 33.1 PPG in those games. Make a note that the number jumps to 35.4 PPG with Tom Brady as starting quarterback.

    One trend that could have you leaning high focuses on a Super Bowl angle with the runner-up of last year’s finale. It’s widely known to back last year’s winner and that cashed Thursday with Philadelphia. It’s also known to fade the loser, which is New England. Along with fading the Patriots, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight openers for the SB loser.

    Divisional Matchups


    Week 1 has four divisional matchups on tap in Week 1 and one will be played in the Sunday primetime slot.

    Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings but we’ve seen a stalemate the past two seasons (2-2). In the last four, both games in Pittsburgh went ‘over’ while the two matchups in Cleveland saw the low side connect and many bettors believe that trend will continue.

    Tampa Bay at New Orleans:
    This series has had some high totals recently with the last five meetings closing in the fifties. Despite the high expectations, the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 during this span and last year’s 31-24 win by Tampa Bay in Week 17 was fortunate to go ‘over’ as the pair combined for 25 points in the fourth quarter. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at QB for the Bucs and in three starts for Tampa Bay last season, the club averaged 21.7 PPG. New Orleans has been a great ‘over’ bet in Week 1 recently, going 6-1 to the high side the last seven years. For those of you looking to lay the points with New Orleans, be aware that it is 1-6 during this run and the clubs has allowed an average 35.6 PPG in the setbacks.

    Kansas City at L.A. Chargers:
    In a series dominated recently by the Chiefs (8-0 L8), we’ve also seen a strong ‘under’ (6-2) trend between the pair. The Chargers have been held to 13.8 PPG during this span. Los Angeles was the best ‘under’ bet (12-4) in the AFC last season, which was helped with the top ranked scoring defense (17 PPG). The unit is a little banged up (Bosa out) for Week 1 but should still have an edge over second-year QB Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs.

    Chicago at Green Bay: (See Below)

    AFC vs. NFC

    Non-conference matchups are never an easy handicap but there are trends to keep an eye on for the opening weekend.

    Jacksonville at N.Y. Giants:
    The Jaguars watched the ‘over’ go 4-0 versus the NFC last season and the well-respected defense allowed 30.5 PPG in those games. New York is 6-2 to the ‘under’ in its last eight matchups against AFC foes.

    Seattle at Denver:
    Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 15-5 in its last 20 non-conference games and that includes a run of seven straight to the high side. The Broncos are 5-2 to the ‘under’ in their last seven versus the NFC.

    N.Y. Jets at Detroit:
    The Jets saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their four matchups against the NFC last season. The Lions surrendered 21.2 PPG to the AFC last season. The team went 1-3 and the lone win came against 0-16 Cleveland, who posted 24 on Detroit. The ‘over’ went 2-1-1.

    L.A. Rams at Oakland:
    The Rams swept their four AFC opponents last season and the offense averaged 33.3 PPG, which helped the ‘over’ go 3-1. The Raiders took a step back in 2017 against the NFC, scoring just 15.3 PPG. That production led to a 1-3 record and 4-0 ‘under’ mark.

    Under the Lights

    SNF - Chicago at Green Bay:
    The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings between the pair and the Bears just don’t have an answer for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is 15-4 against Chicago with him as a starter and it’s averaging 37.4 PPG in the last seven encounters. The Bears defense wasn’t exactly a pushover (20 PPG) last season and that helped the ‘under’ go 12-4 but two of the four ‘over’ tickets came vs. Green Bay. Since the SNF game is a huge ‘chase’ game for bettors, you know the books will be hoping for a Bears-Under combination.

    The Monday Night Football double-header began in 2006 and continues this week with a pair of non-conference games (see above). We haven’t seen many glaring trends recently with the ‘over’ going 6-4 over the past five seasons.

    N.Y. Jets at Detroit:
    Based on Detroit’s reputation as an ‘over’ team, I would expect this line to get juiced up by kickoff. The Lions went 10-6 to the high side last season, 6-2 from Ford Field. Also, the Lions have seen the ‘over’ go 7-0 in their last seven Week 1 matchups and the offense has averaged 30.7 PPG in this span.

    L.A. Rams at Oakland:
    The Rams were also a solid ‘over’ club last season (11-5) and a lot of that damage came on the road (7-1) because of their potent offense (32.8 PPG). Will we see a regression? Will the new-look L.A. defense keep opponents in check? We’ll find out soon enough and we’ll also get to see if head coach Jon Gruden can improve an Oakland offense (18.8 PPG) that struggled last season.

    Fearless Predictions

    This is my 11th year producing the “Total Talk” column on and certainly one of my favorites. For those new to the VegasInsider.com and the industry, welcome aboard and best of luck with your wagers. And to those that have circled back around, thanks for the loyalty. Remember, feedback is welcomed and appreciated. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

    Best Over: Seattle-Denver 42 ½

    Best Under: Kansas City-L.A. Chargers 48 ½

    Best Team Total: Over Cincinnati 23

    Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
    Over 40 Bengals-Colts
    Over 42 Buccaneers-Saints
    Over 37 ½ Jets-Lions
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    NFL Week 1 SNF Betting Preview

    Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

    It's always good to get a key divisional matchup for the first SNF game of the year, and given the expectations the Bears and Packers have for themselves in 2018, this could be a great way to start the primetime SNF season.

    Both Chicago and Green Bay have NFC North division title hopes as Green Bay's got QB Aaron Rodgers healthy and happy with a new fat contract, while Chicago made out and made a huge deal to get LB Khalil Mack from Oakland and made him happy with a fat contract as well.

    Yet, the Bears are still basically in Year 2 of their rebuilding program with QB Mitchell Trubisky at the helm, and went out and got him plenty of help earlier in the off-season. Will it be enough to find a way for the Bears to pull off a Week 1 upset?

    Odds: Green Bay (-7.5); Total set at 47

    Getting Mack was a huge boost for the Bears this past week as it sent a message to the players that the organization firmly believes they are in a position to compete now. Whether or not that comes to fruition over the course of 16 games these next few months remains to be seen, but as the entire division around them gets to continuously talk about how great their QB's are (Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford), the Bears went out to attack that issue head on with the Mack deal, while hopefully their own young QB matures into that class of player. Make no mistake about it, this Bears team is going to try and win with defense first this year and it'll start in Green Bay on Sunday.

    The Packers might have opened up their checkbook to Rodgers this year, but they did also bring him a great redzone target in TE Jimmy Graham. Graham expects to be a big factor for the Packers down tight – ala Gronkowski in New England – but the Packers still need to find a consistent running game soon or they risk becoming too one-dimensional again with their attack. When you've got one of the best QB's in the game like Aaron Rodgers you are naturally going to want to keep the ball in his hands as often as possible, but one-dimensional attacks in the NFL can be fairly easy to defend.

    Furthermore, the Packers have learned the past few years that they can't solely rely on Rodgers and the offense to win every game 35-32. Green Bay made a decided effort to improve on the defensive line and in their secondary, and with their linebacking core healthy to start the year, this Packers defense could end up being just as nasty as the Bears here.

    All of that means that this game sets up as one where it's strength vs strength (Packers offense vs Bears defense), with each side hoping for some decided improvements on the other side of the ball. The former will make Green Bay drives exciting to watch as a general fan, but not so much if you like high-scoring games. Chicago played plenty of bend-but-don't-break a year ago and with the talent they've got now, their defense might not even bend all that much. Chances are we will see plenty of long Packers drives end in FG's or worse in that case as points should actually be hard to come by here.

    Which leads me to this total of 47.5 being too high for this game as we could see more of the old NFC North days when this division used to be nicknamed the “black and blue” division for how hard-hitting it was. Green Bay's defense isn't about to go out and get lit up by Trubisky in the season opener, and Chicago won't exactly be taking that many offensive risks, content to play a field position game and rely on their defense.

    Seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have cashed 'under' tickets, and while many of those have come in much colder and rougher weather conditions, the end result won't be any different here.

    Best Bet: Under 47.5 points
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    Sunday’s six-pack
    Top 6 picks in the Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)
    1) Bengals +3 (1,218 picked them)
    2) Rams -4 (1,052)
    3) Ravens -7.5 (907)
    4) Vikings -6.5 (854)
    5) Texans +6.5 (848)
    6) Broncos -3 (807)


    Quote of the Day
    “I placed my first bet in fifth grade — five bucks on the Super Bowl with my brother. I lost, but what transpired the entire day epitomizes my love for sports betting. The analysis before the bet. The anticipation of the start. The rush of the game. Yes, winning is the ideal result but the range of emotions is what the experience sells.”
    Doug Kezirian, ESPN.com

    Sunday’s quiz
    Which city used to host the Poulan Weed Eater Bowl every New Year’s Eve?

    Saturday’s quiz
    Green Bay won the first Super Bowl, 35-10 against the Chiefs.

    Friday’s quiz
    In the football scenes in The Longest Yard, Burt Reynolds’ character Paul Crewe wore number 22, one of the numbers he wore as a running back at Florida State.


    Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

    13) Colorado 33, Nebraska 28— Exciting game; Cornhuskers threw a couple passes in the end zone on the last series, after Colorado took the lead on a 40-yard pass to Laviska Shenault with 1:07 left. Shenault is a great player; he caught 10 passes for 177 yards and also carried the ball a couple of times. Reminds me of Tim Brown, the old Raider.

    Colorado’s kicker is a 31-year old Australian who played pro soccer for ten years before deciding to go to college and trying football. He missed a 37-yard FG with 9:56 left, when Colorado trailed 28-27. He also made two FG’s and missed another one; he needs to do better.

    12) Georgia 41, South Carolina 17— Dawgs looked very fast in this game, dominant performance; right at the start of the game, this kid on Georgia picked off a pass and ran it in for a TD, but he did what one or two kids does every year, and it drives me bleepin’ crazy.

    Pet Peeve of the Day: When you’re scoring an uncontested touchdown, do not drop the ball just as you cross the goal line, because many times, YOU HAVEN’T CROSSED THE LINE YET.

    Georgia kid did that here, but one of his teammates picked up the ball and saved his friend from being a complete moron, someone who has to be a “cool guy” and show off, but instead gets on SportsCenter as the guy who is so cool he cost his team a touchdown for no reason.

    11) Bad Beat of the Day:
    Florida Atlantic (-8) 33, Air Force 27— Down 33-20 late in the game, Air Force blocked a punt and ran it in for a TD with 0:50 left, to cover the 8-point spread.

    10) Upsets of the Day:
    — East Carolina (+16) 41, North Carolina 19
    — Eastern Michigan (+15) 20, Purdue 19
    — Kentucky (+13.5) 27, Florida 16
    — Colorado State (+13.5) 34, Arkansas 27
    — Coastal Carolina (+9.5) 47, UAB 24
    — Navy (+7) 22, Memphis 21
    — Maine (I-AA team) 31, Western Kentucky 28

    9) South Florida 49, Georgia Tech 38— USF ran two kickoffs back for TD’s in the first quarter; last team to have two kick return TD’s in the same game? Cal Golden Bears, in 2014. So when you see that Tech outgained the Bulls 602-426, it is misleading, since USF had two fewer possessions, thanks to the kick returns.

    8) Oklahoma 49, UCLA 21— It is weird watching the A’s late Saturday afternoon and they flash the Oklahoma score on the screen— Sooners’ QB Kyler Murray was Oakland’s 1st round draft pick back in June, and will be an outfielder in the A’s minor league system starting next year.

    Oklahoma has really good receivers, and a lot of them; Murray is like a point guard, getting rid of the ball quickly to one of his very fast friends.

    7) Mississippi State 31, Kansas State 10— K-State’s kicker is a kid named Blake Lynch; he is 5-foot-5 and up until a couple months ago, was a custodian in the K-State athletic department. Now he is on full scholarship; good for him.

    6) Navy 22, Memphis 21— Tigers outgained Navy by 62 yards, but turned ball over four times (-3) and ran 30 less plays than the Middies. Navy scored the game-winning TD with 2:37 left, and outscored Memphis 13-0 in 4th quarter.

    5) Kentucky 27, Florida 16— Last time Kentucky beat Florida in football, I had a full head of curly hair; Wildcats won 10-3 that day, way back in 1986- think I weigh less now, though. Anyway it was a long time ago- Kerwin Bell was the Gators’ QB that day, Galen Hall was the Florida coach. Jerry Claiborne was Kentucky’s coach.

    4) Clemson 28, Texas A&M 26— Tigers held on to win in last minute on a rainy night in Texas. Not sure how teams at this level juggle two QB’s, like Clemson is trying to do.

    3) Ole Miss 76, Southern Illinois 41— This is a misleading score, since Salukis are a I-AA team, and led 38-35 at halftime. Red Flag for the Rebels here, after their win LW over Texas Tech.

    2) Minnesota 21, Fresno State 14— Visiting Bulldogs were on Minnesota 4-yard line with 1:25 to go, tried a halfback option pass, but it was a terrible pass and got picked off in end zone.

    1) Kansas 31, Central Michigan 7— Jayhawks snapped a 46-game road losing streak; their last road win was September 12, 2009.
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