Week 1: Under Out West

ofred · Aug 31, 2018

3* Colorado/ CSU- under 65.5 First play. This is a rivalry game that usually is hard fought and lower scoring than either of these teams score during the rest of the season. In the past 20 years, they have only hit this number twice. Don't be fooled by CSU's offense last week. They played against a atrocious defense in Hawaii, which is full of young, smaller players. Against the Buffs, they will struggle to score.

Also, both teams have fairly rebuilt OLs, and many skill players that have graduated(or at least gone). Both teams will likely run often. Colorado has a new receiving corps and RB group. I expect they'll play a bit conservative being a first game, with new WRs, RB Lindsay being gone, and wanting keep QB Montez healthy due to iffy backup QBs. Colorado ran about 60% of the time last year.

Good luck to RXers this season.

1* Under 34 1H same game.

Vituperate · Aug 31, 2018

good seeing you again Fred. Bol this season and GLTA

BuckitDude · Aug 31, 2018

Bol fred! Love your insight

solrosenberg · Aug 31, 2018

good luck Fred, good to see you here!

indiana · Aug 31, 2018

Fred...….BOL with tonight's action...…….enjoy and have a profitable season...…...indy

ofred · Sep 1, 2018

Very fortunate to win the above play. I underestimated just how bad CSU is defensively. Colorado won't score like this vs. a real defense.

2* Cal -7
2* Cal -4.5 1H Cal went from awful to average between 2016 and 2017, defensively. Coach Justin Wilcox has recruited fairly well on the D, and he is an excellent game planner/ coach on the defensive side. Cal also has the pieces offensively to compete with almost anyone in the PAC 12… if the D plays as well as I think they will. UNC starts a new QB coming off a 3 win season, with many players suspended for this game. The starting QB, and DL and OL(for depth) are most affected. The rest of the suspended players are backups. A factor on special teams?

Wilcox has spent the latter part of camp playing scrimmages at full speed, with more than the usual contact, and trying to get his team up to game speed to start well. Last season they went to UNC and shocked them by starting out well from the onset. Apparently Cal's OL is their biggest area of improvement. I also wonder if Larry Fedora's act is wearing thin with UNC, while Wilcox has his team motivated and excited to start the season at home.

ofred · Sep 1, 2018

3* Wyoming +3 Wazzu has a bad habit going back years of starting and ending their seasons poorly. Both starting QBs are gone, 2 key receivers, the top RB, a rebuilt OL and quite a few other players defensively. I think Mike Leach will have to take a few games to get the timing down for his air raid offense. Meanwhile, Wyoming has a game under its belt, and has very solid D, a good running game, a winner for a head coach, and have to be very excited playing at home. Wyoming played very well in the 2nd half of last year, and I think the Josh Allen loss is overrated.

2* UNLV +26
1* UNLV +16.5 1H UNLV has the kind of offense that will be difficult for USC to prepare for. Great running game that will eat up clock, and break the occasional big play. UNLV's defense also played much better 2nd half last year, and both sides of the ball returns many players. I think USC will be breaking in a new QB, skill players, and others, and will not show too much offensively. USC's defense looks very good, but has been known in the past to take lesser opponents lightly, and with Stanford on deck, might play a little less than their best game. USC starts a true freshman QB, and very likely gets a limited playbook in his first game, while coaches are preparing for the following week vs. the Trees.

ofred · Sep 1, 2018

2* Oregon -32
1* Oregon -20.5 1H The Ducks have a few holes in their game, but defensively I think they'll surprise us. DC Leavitt has his team well prepared for the season, and I expect they'll be fast and athletic more so than in the past. I also think the "Autzen Effect" will throw BG off their offensive game. Bowling Green has lost a couple key skill players to dismissals/ suspensions, and their OL is fairly raw. Oregon has some question marks at the WR spot, but their OL and running game should be as good as usual. Justin Herbert is extremely accurate, with great feet and the ability to run when needed. The BG D was awful last year, and I don't think they have recruited especially well on the side of the ball to improve it much.

2* Ohio State -38.5 A ridiculous spread, sure, but the Beavs just don't have any strengths that are apparent. Their OL and running game might be average, but that goes against the strength of the Buckeye D. QB Luton is decent…vs. the Beaver D in practice, but he's a statue, and I have a feeling Ohio State gets some turnovers here that make this game ugly and fast. 2nd half, the Beavers will be really tested since their depth is so poor. They lost some key defensive players to injuries in camp, their pretty good TE, and I can't see why the Buckeye backups don't continue the slaughter. Ohio State's weaknesses( the few they have) won't be exposed much in this game. Ohio St. might also have the best downfield passing game that they've had for years. We'll see.

ofred · Sep 1, 2018

Leans/ Small plays (may increase tomorrow): Michigan +1, Illinois/ Kent- under 55.5, Texas/ Md.- over 53

ofred · Sep 1, 2018

On the small side:
1* Illinois/ Kent- under 57 Two new QBs, and Illinois actually played pretty good D last year, and should improve this year. Kent a total rebuild on offense, new coaches, etc. Illinois might cover here too. Not sure how Kent scores. On the other hand, Illinois might keep it on the ground with their new QB.

1* Michigan -2.5 Think ND will really miss Josh Adams' big runs, and the two OL that went high in the NFL draft. Wimbush as a passer, not good. Got a sense that Michigan opens up their offense this year and joins the rest of CFB in that degree. Love the Michigan D.

ofred · Sep 1, 2018

For those interested, Rice looks like they do not have any passing attack. Houston might key on the run, and with their D, this could be a butt kicking. Lean Houston. Like the Houston QB a lot.

MoneyMiller · Sep 1, 2018

gl this wk o fred

Skeeter123 · Sep 1, 2018

GL this year fred! Always love your write ups.

:toast:

ofred · Sep 1, 2018

Observations from the OSU-OSU game:
1. Dwayne Haskins gives the Buckeye offense a passing option that is much better than what they've had in recent years.
2. Hard to say how good the Buckeye offense is because the Beavs defense is a sieve, and that's with the Buckeyes running a fairly vanilla game plan. Beavers are really BAD defensively. They got pushed around all day. No depth.
3. The Buckeye defense, on the other hand gave up 31 points and lots of big plays. The back 7 better improve or a real team will score 40 plus on them.
4. The Beavs had a good game plan offensively, and I expect they'll be involved in some OVERS in the future. Young WRs looked very good at times.

ofred · Sep 1, 2018

Like their bowl loss to Boise, Mario Cristobal once again doesn't have his team ready. The Ducks will probably win here but that spread looks like a loser.

ofred · Sep 1, 2018

o fred said:
Like their bowl loss to Boise, Mario Cristobal once again doesn't have his team ready. The Ducks will probably win here but that spread looks like a loser.

I'd like to eat my very premature, stupid words at this point. Ducks go ahead 35-10.

ofred · Sep 2, 2018

Other than the Wyoming loss, nothing way off. Bad break getting the push on CAL (although had equal money on 1H). They clearly outplayed UNC, but UNC scored on all 3 of their (only) drives, while Cal squandered too many scoring chances.

2* Miami -3 (-120)
1* Miami -2.5 1H LSU learning a new defense, and although they have some good talent there, they also lost a lot of talent on that side. Besides, Ed Orgeron doesn't often get the most out of his talent on both sides of the ball. What should concern LSU more is their new QB playing without their top 3 WRs from last year, and both of the very good top 2 RBs. Miami has a very strong and fast front 7, and should give Joe Burrow some trouble in his first game- in his first start of his college career. Orgeron chose Burrow to start but has already stated he wouldn't hesitate to sub in the next guy if needed. Great confidence builder.

Miami has only one weakness that is obvious, the OL. However, they have recruited well there the last 2 years, and I expect improvement there, if not stellar play. Miami does have the dual threat QB, running game(Travis Homer will star here), WRs and defensive skills and aggressiveness to win here. Take out their Clemson beat-down last year, and they had a great 2017 season. Neutral field, look for Miami to quiet the larger LSU crowd early.

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