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Thread: One big bet this week...

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  1. #101  
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    Quote Originally Posted by SECplayer View Post
    Unlikely to have any picks today.

    Ole Miss is on a bye week.

    I have several leans but just cant convince myself to pull trigger. The only problem with having such a good read on one particular team (Ole Miss) is that it makes it difficult to justify betting other games where you realize you don’t have anywhere close to the same informational edge on those other games.
    Your discipline is amazing!!
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  2. #102  
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    Week 10

    One big bet this week (okay, two bets; one game).


    South Carolina PK at Ole Miss. 10 units.

    Ole Miss/South Carolina Over 68. 10 units.


    As shown throughout this thread, Ole Miss offense differs dramatically based on opponents’ defense and coaching. They dominate inferior opponents in points and yards and then get suffocated when going up against the superior athletes of upper echelon SEC teams and their experienced coaching staffs. That’s why you see bizarre splits where Ta’amu can go for 500+ yards one game and sub 200 the next. So now Ole Miss is faced with an opponent that obviously doesn’t fall into the “superior opponent” category of LSU and Bama but well above the “inferior opponent” category that Ole Miss offense has dominated. I expect this to be similar to the Arkansas game (Ole Miss won a comeback 37-33 in a steady rain). But South Carolina is better than Arkansas and probably not on par with Auburn (at least athletically anyway).

    While that has certainly been a theme this season, perhaps the biggest theme of this thread has been the Ole Miss defense. I have zero expectations for Ole Miss defense to improve. And it wouldn’t be hard to improve as they’re statistically the worst SEC defense by a landslide. South Carolina certainly doesn’t scare anyone in offensive explosiveness but they move the ball well enough and at times go at a pretty good pace (and average 32 points). They should be efficient and score plenty. On the other side of the ball, South Carolina’s defense is by most accounts average. However, despite being fairly average on defense they’ve been really good at stopping explosive long yardage touchdowns. That’s exactly what Ole Miss’s offense thrives upon. Ole Miss scores almost half of its touchdowns (47%) from 20+ yards out. But they’ve struggled with efficiency in drives where they don’t score from a long play and have to actually score from the red zone. We saw this a lot two weeks ago versus Auburn. But I do think Ole Miss rushing offense will fare better against South Carolina than they have against the defensive lines of Bama, LSU and Auburn. Ole Miss has a very underrated running back. So while I believe South Carolina does win outright, I do expect Ole Miss to get to 31+ points which is why I think the Over 68 hits as well.
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  3. #103  
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    all the best
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  4. #104  
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    SEC...…..BOL with your action today.....great write up...….on the ov. and side with you...….indy
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  5. #105  
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    Great write-up SEC. Kicking myself for not playing one of these.
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    Quote Originally Posted by o fred View Post
    Great write-up SEC. Kicking myself for not playing one of these.
    kicking myself for not playing it bigger,, Caught up with others on ole miss stupid meeee
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  7. #107  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ballzie View Post
    kicking myself for not playing it bigger,, Caught up with others on ole miss stupid meeee
    Tie game at half. It can go either way.
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  8. #108  
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    Adding second half bet.

    South Carolina Team Total Over 17.5 (-115). 10 units.
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  9. #109  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ballzie View Post
    Caught up with others on ole miss stupid meeee
    Not stupid! Ole Miss up by 10 in the 4th.
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  10. #110  
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    Quote Originally Posted by SECplayer View Post
    Week 10

    One big bet this week (okay, two bets; one game).


    South Carolina PK at Ole Miss. 10 units.

    Ole Miss/South Carolina Over 68. 10 units.


    As shown throughout this thread, Ole Miss offense differs dramatically based on opponents’ defense and coaching. They dominate inferior opponents in points and yards and then get suffocated when going up against the superior athletes of upper echelon SEC teams and their experienced coaching staffs. That’s why you see bizarre splits where Ta’amu can go for 500+ yards one game and sub 200 the next. So now Ole Miss is faced with an opponent that obviously doesn’t fall into the “superior opponent” category of LSU and Bama but well above the “inferior opponent” category that Ole Miss offense has dominated. I expect this to be similar to the Arkansas game (Ole Miss won a comeback 37-33 in a steady rain). But South Carolina is better than Arkansas and probably not on par with Auburn (at least athletically anyway).

    While that has certainly been a theme this season, perhaps the biggest theme of this thread has been the Ole Miss defense. I have zero expectations for Ole Miss defense to improve. And it wouldn’t be hard to improve as they’re statistically the worst SEC defense by a landslide. South Carolina certainly doesn’t scare anyone in offensive explosiveness but they move the ball well enough and at times go at a pretty good pace (and average 32 points). They should be efficient and score plenty. On the other side of the ball, South Carolina’s defense is by most accounts average. However, despite being fairly average on defense they’ve been really good at stopping explosive long yardage touchdowns. That’s exactly what Ole Miss’s offense thrives upon. Ole Miss scores almost half of its touchdowns (47%) from 20+ yards out. But they’ve struggled with efficiency in drives where they don’t score from a long play and have to actually score from the red zone. We saw this a lot two weeks ago versus Auburn. But I do think Ole Miss rushing offense will fare better against South Carolina than they have against the defensive lines of Bama, LSU and Auburn. Ole Miss has a very underrated running back. So while I believe South Carolina does win outright, I do expect Ole Miss to get to 31+ points which is why I think the Over 68 hits as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by SECplayer View Post
    Adding second half bet.

    South Carolina Team Total Over 17.5 (-115). 10 units.
    Great job! Congrats on the sweep! Amazing job and record.
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  11. #111  
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    Cha-Ching!!! Thanks for the winners. You're a must follow!!!
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  12. #112  
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    very nice call
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  13. #113  
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    Thanks for the 2 winners! Continued success.
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  14. #114  
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    Great capping. I appreciate it.
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  15. #115  
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    thank you
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  16. #116  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Russell Peters View Post
    Not stupid! Ole Miss up by 10 in the 4th.
    well it all worked out in the end.. luckily. I needed that one to save the morning. gluck
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  17. #117  
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    Thanks guys.

    Week 10.

    3-0. + 30 units


    Overall

    13-2 (86.7%). +103.5 units.
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  18. #118  
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    Quote Originally Posted by SECplayer View Post
    Thanks guys.

    Week 10.

    3-0. + 30 units


    Overall

    13-2 (86.7%). +103.5 units.
    B E A utiful! Thanks for the picks!
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  19. #119  
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    Thanks for the winners
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  20. #120  
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    amazing! can't state enough what a great job you've done.
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  21. #121  
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    Great work, any thoughts on this week, thanks again!
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  22. #122  
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    Week 11

    One big bet this week.


    Ole Miss at Texas A&M Over 67. 10 units.


    I don’t have near as much time to do an in depth write up this week. But I just can’t stress enough just how bad this Ole Miss defense is. Again, last in SEC by a landslide. The rush defense is atrocious (despite stacking the line) and allows rushers to gain at least 5 yards per rush in over half their rushes (which ranks 115). The pass defense is also atrocious. Part due to injuries. Part due to leaving guys on an island due to stacking line and attempting to stop the rush. But mainly just due to a combination of inferior talent and poor coaching. Opponents complete 63% of their passes (ranked 107) and average 8.3 yards per attempt (ranked 108). We can’t get to QB (pressure QB 4.7%). We are very susceptible to the big play and give up a 20+ yard play 10% of opponents’ plays. I could keep going.

    A&M hasn’t been an offensive juggernaut by a long shot this year and has struggled to score points. That will change this week. Kellen Mond will look like a Heisman candidate and Trayveon Williams will get 150+ minimum.

    As bad as Ole Miss defense looked last week, the Ole Miss offense almost pulled out a win against a less talented South Carolina (less talented than A&M that is) but offense stalled late. I think they score enough to help get over 67.

    Not taking a side in this game. For reasons stated above I am not taking Rebs. But the 13.5 points doesn’t seem near as soft as the lines we’ve seen earlier this season. I’d rather hold off for a halftime bet or possible team total bet.
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  23. #123  
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    SEC......solid thought's, thank you...….continue those winning ways this weekend...….indy
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  24. #124  
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    SECPlayer, thanks for posting. I agree that this game should go over the total. If you like the game to go over, you have to think that a&m goes over their team total as well.
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  25. #125  
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    Good Luck today man....... I like it thx
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