The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 1

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Final roster cuts done!

First week projections are based, pretty much totally, on 2017 team and player performance – so have grains of salt handy. Remember that the focus of The Limper is to project a margin of victory, and NOT a score total, so don’t look here for an over/under prediction (Sometimes its close, but most of the time – it’s not.) Check back for injury-based corrections prior to the games. I’ll post initial projections on Tuesdays, then FINAL projections on Wednesdays for Thursday’s game, Saturdays for Sunday’s lineup, and Sunday night for MNF.

The new look projection frame is a work in progress. It includes a column that will show how the model performs – game by game, and remember the ATS win/loss record is based on closing lines (Vegas Insider’s consensus closing lines), so some picks may flip depending where the line ends up. The FINAL projections, however, will obviously stand as posted.

My staff has worked their fingers down to the nubs getting this ready, but they’re not perfect, so, if you see a screw up, or think a projection is way off, let me know.

GLTA
 

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OUt of interest how do you adjust for a qb change - for example Miami Cutler was terrible last year - Tannehill definitely better. Beside the change there was a lot of QB movement, so do you make adjustments?
 

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OUt of interest how do you adjust for a qb change - for example Miami Cutler was terrible last year - Tannehill definitely better. Beside the change there was a lot of QB movement, so do you make adjustments?

Making adjustments is the name of the game. Starter injuries were a killer to reliable projections when I first started modeling the NFL. All season long I was scrambling to make adjustments when starters at priority positions went down and backups were in, and I was going nuts. More than anything I needed a solid, data driven rating system which would assign a points-value – plus/minus - to every player within the context of the team they played on (ie. O-Line, D-Line, RBs, receivers, LBs, corners, safeties and QBs), which would resolve the injury problem to a simple plug-and-play exercise. Easier said than done, however, as most of the best player ratings systems, like ELO, are done out of context – they rate players against generic replacements – while other systems are proprietary; so, I’d have to develop my own. Again – easier said than done – but, dogged as does it, about 5 years ago I finally came up with an injury module that seemed to work – but it’s been a work in progress.

Basically, the injury/change module executes on Wednesdays, Saturdays, and Sunday nights, after the latest injury reports are filed, and the projections for the following day’s game(s) reflect the changes made from the last game played. I do manual changes for certain teams who play fast and loose with injury list rules, but for the most part it’s all automatic.

Regarding your specific question, Tannehill was out all season with an injury, and Cutler was a 1 year replacement. Yes, Tannehill has better career numbers, but he was OUT, and Petty looked like a stinker, so Cutler – whose best seasons were long behind him - was the best available option. The move definitely degraded the position, but it was hardly the only thing that stunk up Miami’s season last year.
 

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