Early CFB betting look for Week 2: Letdown spot for Bama?
Will Harris
ESPN PLUS
College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season. Join us inside as we preview the intrigue of a rematch from last bowl season, examine an unbeaten Week 2 trend, explain the relevant history behind a series with no history and caution against overreacting to the opening week's marquee losses.
Portfolio checkup
In portfolio checkup, we explore which teams we're buying and selling, and why.
Buy:
Shea Patterson showed enough in his debut to demonstrate that he's a big upgrade at the quarterback position, and that's been the missing link on an otherwise excellent Michigan team. Notre Dame QB Brandon Wimbush shined and the Irish put up 302 yards, which doesn't sound like much but is an impressive total against a unit that allowed 350 just once last year and figures to be in the conversation for the nation's top defense.
Michigan and Washington are the ones saddled with a mark in the loss column, but don't fall into thinking that either has been exposed somehow -- all four of these outfits are top-10 caliber teams.
We touched on FAU's poor offseason last week, and the team's unpreparedness showed as it was badly outmatched at Oklahoma. The defending Conference USA champs were odds-on favorites to repeat and are still the most talented team in the league, but the Owls don't even look like the best team in their division yet, let alone a crew that can challenge Boise State for Group of 5 supremacy. Avoid this bunch until they display better chemistry on offense and a harder edge to the rush defense.
Slate standout
Slate standout provides games that we'll be studying closely this week and what we're looking for out of the contest.
Utah State Aggies (-22.5) vs. New Mexico State AggiesLast year this game was a fair fight, with New Mexico State beating Utah State in overtime of the Arizona Bowl as 4-point underdogs. This year, the teams have written very different stories so far. New Mexico State faced a tough Thursday road trip to Minnesota on a short week following a "Week 0" blowout loss to Wyoming. The Aggies were worn down by the travel and two downhill rushing teams bruising them up in consecutive weeks, but have now had extra rest to recover.
Utah State, meanwhile, fought hard but came up short at Michigan State. We've called Aggies coach Matt Wells a rising star in the past, and now he has his best team yet. The result in East Lansing had little to do with the Spartans failing to meet expectations and more with the legitimacy of this tough Utah State squad. Nail-biter losses can be emotional downers, but often a big underdog will draw confidence and enthusiasm from the "moral victory" and show well in ensuing games.
Will Utah State come into this week demoralized from the near-miss? Fired up about its potential after such a great showing? What about amped for revenge on their fellow Aggies after the overtime bowl loss? Has New Mexico State recovered from the pair of punishing rushing attacks it faced in a five-day span to open the season?There's a lot going on with this one. While this big favorite is capable of delivering a cover over outgunned competition, the handicapper's task is to listen to the coaches and players, take the temperature of the fan base and be attentive to the returns from the practice fields in order to decipher this Utah State team's mindset heading into a game where it's installed as heavy chalk over a team it lost to last year.
Utah State, meanwhile, fought hard but came up short at Michigan State. We've called Aggies coach Matt Wells a rising star in the past, and now he has his best team yet. The result in East Lansing had little to do with the Spartans failing to meet expectations and more with the legitimacy of this tough Utah State squad. Nail-biter losses can be emotional downers, but often a big underdog will draw confidence and enthusiasm from the "moral victory" and show well in ensuing games.
Will Utah State come into this week demoralized from the near-miss? Fired up about its potential after such a great showing? What about amped for revenge on their fellow Aggies after the overtime bowl loss? Has New Mexico State recovered from the pair of punishing rushing attacks it faced in a five-day span to open the season?There's a lot going on with this one. While this big favorite is capable of delivering a cover over outgunned competition, the handicapper's task is to listen to the coaches and players, take the temperature of the fan base and be attentive to the returns from the practice fields in order to decipher this Utah State team's mindset heading into a game where it's installed as heavy chalk over a team it lost to last year.
Handicapper's toolbox
Handicapper's toolbox will provide a different concept every Monday, along with how to apply it on Saturday.
Know how programs have matched up in the past so that you will recognize when either prices or circumstances are out of line with historical norms.
College football sees each team play only a dozen games, with widely varying context surrounding each one. With a quarter of the roster and half the starting lineup changing each year, handicapping college football is usually an exercise in drawing conclusions from small sample sizes.
Still, some teams seemingly just do as they do in certain spots, and as coaches' tenures grow long, be alert for situations that arise repeatedly.
One of our favorites is Nick Saban's September consistency. Alabama was in on the ground floor of the trend toward lid-lifting neutral-site affairs. The Tide whipped Clemson to open Saban's second season and since then has beaten Michigan, Wisconsin, Southern Cal, Florida State, West Virginia and Virginia Tech (twice) at neutral sites on opening weekend. Bama's win over Louisville was the eighth such victory in Saban's 12 years at the helm, and the Tide has covered seven of them.
There's been a push and a weather-shortened no-action result mixed in, but otherwise the Tide is 0-6 against the number in Week 2 after opening with a neutral-site clash, and that spot on the schedule has been marked by some of the sloppiest performances of the Saban era.
It will be hard to resist backing that trend again this week with five-TD underdog Arkansas State, who may be outmanned overall but who -- like Louisville last week and Ole Miss in Week 3 -- will have receivers running free in the Tide's green secondary at times.
Know how programs have matched up in the past so that you will recognize when either prices or circumstances are out of line with historical norms.
College football sees each team play only a dozen games, with widely varying context surrounding each one. With a quarter of the roster and half the starting lineup changing each year, handicapping college football is usually an exercise in drawing conclusions from small sample sizes.
Still, some teams seemingly just do as they do in certain spots, and as coaches' tenures grow long, be alert for situations that arise repeatedly.
One of our favorites is Nick Saban's September consistency. Alabama was in on the ground floor of the trend toward lid-lifting neutral-site affairs. The Tide whipped Clemson to open Saban's second season and since then has beaten Michigan, Wisconsin, Southern Cal, Florida State, West Virginia and Virginia Tech (twice) at neutral sites on opening weekend. Bama's win over Louisville was the eighth such victory in Saban's 12 years at the helm, and the Tide has covered seven of them.
There's been a push and a weather-shortened no-action result mixed in, but otherwise the Tide is 0-6 against the number in Week 2 after opening with a neutral-site clash, and that spot on the schedule has been marked by some of the sloppiest performances of the Saban era.
It will be hard to resist backing that trend again this week with five-TD underdog Arkansas State, who may be outmanned overall but who -- like Louisville last week and Ole Miss in Week 3 -- will have receivers running free in the Tide's green secondary at times.
Chalk bits
Chalk bits will provide observations, issues, clues and questions from around each week's slate.
This is the first-ever meeting between Texas (-21) and Tulsa, but there's still a precedent to be examined. The biggest comps to Texas on Tulsa's recent schedules have been the Longhorns' Big 12 rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Tulsa may not have played Texas, but it has seen plenty of the two Sooner State big brothers in recent seasons, and the results have not been good. In its past 10 meetings with the pair, Tulsa has kept the score within three touchdowns just once. Even in good years, the Hurricane has been consistently outclassed by the Sooners and Cowboys, and that's relevant history heading into the program's first-ever meeting with another Big 12 heavyweight.
Miami (OH) (-2.5) and Cincinnati compete in one of the sport's oldest and most-played rivalries, but it's been a one-sided affair of late. Last year the Redhawks were finally favored over the Bearcats in what became Cincinnati's 12th straight series win. Miami received an average of more than 18 points in the 11 prior meetings and lost by an average of about 22 points. Now Miami has opened the season with yet another tough loss to Marshall, while the Bearcats went to L.A. and spoiled Chip Kelly's debut. It's hard to see how the balance of power in this series has turned in Miami's favor, yet the Redhawks are giving the Bearcats points for a second straight year.
Another game where recent history doesn't align with the number is Kansas' trip to Central Michigan (-6.5). The Chippewas rolled up nearly 600 yards in a 45-27 whipping of the Jayhawks last year. The Chips suffered heavy graduation losses, and this year's game set up as a pivotal progress-measuring contest for fourth-year Kansas coach David Beaty. Beating a rebuilding CMU after losing to a senior-laden Chippewas team the previous year is basically a must for Beaty. Unfortunately, so was setting up the measuring-stick game in Week 2 by surviving FCS Nicholls State in the opener. That didn't happen, as Kansas committed a litany of unforced errors, was outgained by 75 yards, and lost in overtime.
Kansas hasn't won a road game since 2009 and the team looked like it was in stasis after the loss to Nicholls. Central may not have the horses that last year's edition had, but it's hard to make a case for the Jayhawks on the road with just a short price in hand, especially after the promise of year four and its forgiving September schedule has already come crashing down in such a demoralizing opener.
We write a lot about "bad favorites" since it's such an important concept, and every September brings plenty of ATS failures by weaker programs unaccustomed to the heavy favorite's role. Vanderbilt (-10) was impressive in routing MTSU, but this outfit has been a consistent money burner when giving points through the years, and now the Dores are being asked to lay doubles to Reno team that scored 72 points in Week 1.<strike></strike>
<strike></strike>This is the first-ever meeting between Texas (-21) and Tulsa, but there's still a precedent to be examined. The biggest comps to Texas on Tulsa's recent schedules have been the Longhorns' Big 12 rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Tulsa may not have played Texas, but it has seen plenty of the two Sooner State big brothers in recent seasons, and the results have not been good. In its past 10 meetings with the pair, Tulsa has kept the score within three touchdowns just once. Even in good years, the Hurricane has been consistently outclassed by the Sooners and Cowboys, and that's relevant history heading into the program's first-ever meeting with another Big 12 heavyweight.
Miami (OH) (-2.5) and Cincinnati compete in one of the sport's oldest and most-played rivalries, but it's been a one-sided affair of late. Last year the Redhawks were finally favored over the Bearcats in what became Cincinnati's 12th straight series win. Miami received an average of more than 18 points in the 11 prior meetings and lost by an average of about 22 points. Now Miami has opened the season with yet another tough loss to Marshall, while the Bearcats went to L.A. and spoiled Chip Kelly's debut. It's hard to see how the balance of power in this series has turned in Miami's favor, yet the Redhawks are giving the Bearcats points for a second straight year.
Another game where recent history doesn't align with the number is Kansas' trip to Central Michigan (-6.5). The Chippewas rolled up nearly 600 yards in a 45-27 whipping of the Jayhawks last year. The Chips suffered heavy graduation losses, and this year's game set up as a pivotal progress-measuring contest for fourth-year Kansas coach David Beaty. Beating a rebuilding CMU after losing to a senior-laden Chippewas team the previous year is basically a must for Beaty. Unfortunately, so was setting up the measuring-stick game in Week 2 by surviving FCS Nicholls State in the opener. That didn't happen, as Kansas committed a litany of unforced errors, was outgained by 75 yards, and lost in overtime.
Kansas hasn't won a road game since 2009 and the team looked like it was in stasis after the loss to Nicholls. Central may not have the horses that last year's edition had, but it's hard to make a case for the Jayhawks on the road with just a short price in hand, especially after the promise of year four and its forgiving September schedule has already come crashing down in such a demoralizing opener.
We write a lot about "bad favorites" since it's such an important concept, and every September brings plenty of ATS failures by weaker programs unaccustomed to the heavy favorite's role. Vanderbilt (-10) was impressive in routing MTSU, but this outfit has been a consistent money burner when giving points through the years, and now the Dores are being asked to lay doubles to Reno team that scored 72 points in Week 1.<strike></strike>
