Welcome back everyone....Looking forward to tonight's game and the entire NFL season.
A quick shout out to SBR and the Rx Forums for putting on a fantastic conference two weeks a go in Vegas. It was great to see so many of the posters and meet a few new ones. After chatting with BAS and HACHEMAN I was encouraged to put up some posts so here we go. I see guys from time to time complain about the MODs on the RX but they are working 24/7 if you see poster being abused use the triangle icon on the post and report it (they cant read every post) - These guys will take out the trash.
WEEK ONE INFO
Tracking the public Last 7 years
Public overall 44-59
Public backing the FAV and the line moves up 19-34
Public backing the dog Dog record 11-5 Surprising right now that is ATL and Cinncy - there are a few close one will updated SAT
Divisional Dogs are 27-11 in week one - That is 71% there are 4 this week Clev, Tampa, KC and Chic
Week one dogs are 52-39 winning 39 games SU
TRACKING THE SUPER CONTEST WEEK ONE
Last 5 years Top 5 SC 11-14
Last year 0-5 I feel as more people enter the SC the winning % will continue to drop
Bottom 5 Plays 5.5-4
MY Plays 17-17 - for the record my overall record is 313-273 good for 53% - I got off to a brutal start last year 9.5-15 but managed to get back to 49% - A better start this year and I feel I will finish in the $$$ 52 points minimum is the goal
TRACKING my POWER RATINGS
Last 7 years Teams that open below of my Power Rating 9-18 (9 SU losses) - those teams are Philly, Minny, Bal, Jax, NE , LAC, Arizona
Last 7 years Teams that open with 1 point of my Power Rating 15-11 - Pitt Indy No Car LAR
Last 7 years Teams that open above my Power Rating 1-1 - Tenn and DEN
On Saturday I look at this even closer at the power ratings by blending in public % and line movement will update then.
NEW WRINKLES
I read a great article on Pinnacle of all places about Home field advantage and applying them to you PR. Typically home field is worth between 2-3 points in the NFL but this study based on Home and Away margin of vistory since 2002 uncovered some interesting info and as a result here are top 5 home field advantages and bottom 4
TOP FIVE:
Seattle 6 points - Noise weather
Arizona 5 Points - Dome
Denver 4 points - Altitude
Detroit 4 points - DOME
MINNY 4 Points - DOME
Honourable mention
Buffalo 4 points - Unique turf in Buffalo plus great fan base plus weather
BOTTOM FIVE:
OAKLAND - 1 point
Philly - 1 Point - Surprised?
Cinncy 1 Point
Carolina 1 Point
NYG 1 Point - interesting thou Jets are 3 points J-E-T-S
Honourable Mention RAMS AND CHARGERS - Working on Fan base, new location
Week one theory - Some Cappers don't lean much on preseason. Players are going through the motions, coaches call vanilla plays, but some teams do try as they have new coaches and are implementing new schemes. These teams have a slight edge only in that they will be better prepared for week one remember they have new coaches because they were a bad team last year. So I think it is important to follow the preseason - who looked sharp and who looked bad, who got injured and who came away unscathed (ATLANTA), how did players look in new uniforms, who reported late and will likely be injured in the first 2 weeks as result. The number one injury in week one Hamstrings!
All teams eventually revert to the mean remaining super good (Patriots & Steelers ) and super bad (Cleveland) are generally Outliers these teams should be approached with caution, but you really have to assess if a team is on the rise or ready to fall. You also have to consider a team who is welcome back injured players from last year that will instantly improve the team - Hello Houston & NYG. Also as I mentioned before players on new teams - Clev and Rams signed alot of free agents will they need time to gel? NEW QBS in CLEV, BUFF, MINNY, TBAY (1st 4 weeks), KC, DEN, WASH, ARIZ, NYJ, - That is a lot of movement sometimes it takes time for chemistry to build or systems learned. Lets not forget some Rusty QB's returning form injury HOUS, GBAY, MIAMI .
OKAY SO How about a pick based on all this blabber right?
I made Plays on the Falcons at +4 and +3.5...those lines are long gone So how about ATLANTA -3.5 +190 $100. Although ATL did not even try in the preseason they are a veteran team that I feel will be ready for some revenge tonight. Nobody remembers they were one of the hottest team heading into the Play offs (7-3) once Sark got his head out of his ass, calling the offense. They were also favored by -2.5, in Philly but the line has swung around to Philly being favoured by 4 to open - That's a 6.5 point swing. MY Line was PHILLY -1.5 (does not consider injuries) ATL has not had much success in Philly but the Eagles are wounded bunch & Foles has not looked good in the PRE. Hey superbowl hangovers do exist maybe not the whole team but on some players I think NICK is experiencing one. Plus minus a few players AJAI and Jeffery's will not help Mr. Foles.
Welcome back NFL and Good Luck everyone
I will post Super contest Plays on Saturday Afternoon & FH half plays SUNDAY AM
Powerz
A quick shout out to SBR and the Rx Forums for putting on a fantastic conference two weeks a go in Vegas. It was great to see so many of the posters and meet a few new ones. After chatting with BAS and HACHEMAN I was encouraged to put up some posts so here we go. I see guys from time to time complain about the MODs on the RX but they are working 24/7 if you see poster being abused use the triangle icon on the post and report it (they cant read every post) - These guys will take out the trash.
WEEK ONE INFO
Tracking the public Last 7 years
Public overall 44-59
Public backing the FAV and the line moves up 19-34
Public backing the dog Dog record 11-5 Surprising right now that is ATL and Cinncy - there are a few close one will updated SAT
Divisional Dogs are 27-11 in week one - That is 71% there are 4 this week Clev, Tampa, KC and Chic
Week one dogs are 52-39 winning 39 games SU
TRACKING THE SUPER CONTEST WEEK ONE
Last 5 years Top 5 SC 11-14
Last year 0-5 I feel as more people enter the SC the winning % will continue to drop
Bottom 5 Plays 5.5-4
MY Plays 17-17 - for the record my overall record is 313-273 good for 53% - I got off to a brutal start last year 9.5-15 but managed to get back to 49% - A better start this year and I feel I will finish in the $$$ 52 points minimum is the goal
TRACKING my POWER RATINGS
Last 7 years Teams that open below of my Power Rating 9-18 (9 SU losses) - those teams are Philly, Minny, Bal, Jax, NE , LAC, Arizona
Last 7 years Teams that open with 1 point of my Power Rating 15-11 - Pitt Indy No Car LAR
Last 7 years Teams that open above my Power Rating 1-1 - Tenn and DEN
On Saturday I look at this even closer at the power ratings by blending in public % and line movement will update then.
NEW WRINKLES
I read a great article on Pinnacle of all places about Home field advantage and applying them to you PR. Typically home field is worth between 2-3 points in the NFL but this study based on Home and Away margin of vistory since 2002 uncovered some interesting info and as a result here are top 5 home field advantages and bottom 4
TOP FIVE:
Seattle 6 points - Noise weather
Arizona 5 Points - Dome
Denver 4 points - Altitude
Detroit 4 points - DOME
MINNY 4 Points - DOME
Honourable mention
Buffalo 4 points - Unique turf in Buffalo plus great fan base plus weather
BOTTOM FIVE:
OAKLAND - 1 point
Philly - 1 Point - Surprised?
Cinncy 1 Point
Carolina 1 Point
NYG 1 Point - interesting thou Jets are 3 points J-E-T-S
Honourable Mention RAMS AND CHARGERS - Working on Fan base, new location
Week one theory - Some Cappers don't lean much on preseason. Players are going through the motions, coaches call vanilla plays, but some teams do try as they have new coaches and are implementing new schemes. These teams have a slight edge only in that they will be better prepared for week one remember they have new coaches because they were a bad team last year. So I think it is important to follow the preseason - who looked sharp and who looked bad, who got injured and who came away unscathed (ATLANTA), how did players look in new uniforms, who reported late and will likely be injured in the first 2 weeks as result. The number one injury in week one Hamstrings!
All teams eventually revert to the mean remaining super good (Patriots & Steelers ) and super bad (Cleveland) are generally Outliers these teams should be approached with caution, but you really have to assess if a team is on the rise or ready to fall. You also have to consider a team who is welcome back injured players from last year that will instantly improve the team - Hello Houston & NYG. Also as I mentioned before players on new teams - Clev and Rams signed alot of free agents will they need time to gel? NEW QBS in CLEV, BUFF, MINNY, TBAY (1st 4 weeks), KC, DEN, WASH, ARIZ, NYJ, - That is a lot of movement sometimes it takes time for chemistry to build or systems learned. Lets not forget some Rusty QB's returning form injury HOUS, GBAY, MIAMI .
OKAY SO How about a pick based on all this blabber right?
I made Plays on the Falcons at +4 and +3.5...those lines are long gone So how about ATLANTA -3.5 +190 $100. Although ATL did not even try in the preseason they are a veteran team that I feel will be ready for some revenge tonight. Nobody remembers they were one of the hottest team heading into the Play offs (7-3) once Sark got his head out of his ass, calling the offense. They were also favored by -2.5, in Philly but the line has swung around to Philly being favoured by 4 to open - That's a 6.5 point swing. MY Line was PHILLY -1.5 (does not consider injuries) ATL has not had much success in Philly but the Eagles are wounded bunch & Foles has not looked good in the PRE. Hey superbowl hangovers do exist maybe not the whole team but on some players I think NICK is experiencing one. Plus minus a few players AJAI and Jeffery's will not help Mr. Foles.
Welcome back NFL and Good Luck everyone
I will post Super contest Plays on Saturday Afternoon & FH half plays SUNDAY AM
Powerz
