Best bets on Week 1 NFL games
Warren Sharp
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Week 1 of the NFL season, and Warren Sharp has you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games outside the late game.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday evening.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday evening.
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent PittsburghSharp's take: Without Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers shouldn't pretend James Conner can carry the load, and instead, should rely more on Ben Roethlisberger. After all, in last year's lone game that Bell played the Browns, he ran the ball only 10 times for 32 yards, gaining 3.2 yards per carry with a 20 percent success rate. The Browns' run defense last year ranked No. 4 in efficiency while the pass defense was 27th. As such, the Steelers should choose to attack the defense with their multitude of passing game weapons.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns' offense is totally revamped with Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry. The passing game should be far more stable. And the Steelers' defense was a major problem ever since Ryan Shazier left; the Browns' rushing attack should be able to take advantage of that weakness.PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent PittsburghSharp's take: Without Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers shouldn't pretend James Conner can carry the load, and instead, should rely more on Ben Roethlisberger. After all, in last year's lone game that Bell played the Browns, he ran the ball only 10 times for 32 yards, gaining 3.2 yards per carry with a 20 percent success rate. The Browns' run defense last year ranked No. 4 in efficiency while the pass defense was 27th. As such, the Steelers should choose to attack the defense with their multitude of passing game weapons.
In terms of intangibles, the Steelers <offer>have been having to wonder when Bell would return and what Todd Haley is telling Gregg Williams about their offense. Meanwhile, the Browns are focused and trying to not only win this game for Haley against his former team, but record Hue Jackson's second win in three seasons right out of the gate. At the current number, there isn't enough value to make me want to jump on the Browns.
</offer>
Pick: Pass
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent Cincinnati
Sharp's take: These were two of the worst offenses in my early down success rate (EDSR) metric last season, but both should be better in 2018. For the Colts, that comes thanks to the return of Andrew Luck. But like any player returning from injury, the Luck we see this week is likely to look worse than the Luck we see in Week 8.
This year the Bengals face a very tough schedule of opposing offensive lines in pass protection, but the Colts aren't one of them. Indianapolis was the worst pass protecting line in the NFL last year, and may be without LT Anthony Castonzo. While this was likely part of the plan, the Colts didn't have Luck throw the ball downfield in the preseason. Those longer dropbacks tend to leave a quarterback more exposed to hits, particularly behind a weaker offensive line.
The Colts went the opposite route. In their key third preseason game, against the Ravens, Indianapolis ran the ball on first-and-10 on more than 70 percent of the first downs with Luck in the game. In its five rushes, its runs totaled 5 yards. This forced the Colts into third and 7.6 yards-to-go on average, meaning Luck was in predictable passing situations, allowing the defense to attack and hit him -- which they did.
While this was just a preseason game, the fact is it remains interesting to see how new playcaller Frank Reich will deal with Luck, and whether he could go too far in hopes of protecting him on early downs by running the ball too often.
Pick: Bengals +3 (-120)
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Tennessee
Sharp's take: Tennessee is one of the few teams in 2018 that could look completely different on both sides of the ball thanks to better coordinators. Matt LaFleur looks to add more modern concepts to improve success, such as tempo, better personnel grouping usage, more RB-targets in the pass game and more play-action. Tennessee's offense could look much better, as it already possessed a top-10 rushing attack from 2017 and added Dion Lewis to the mix in 2018.
Last year Miami's rushing defense faced the No. 7-ranked schedule and finished No. 15 against the run. But having to deal with the Titans' rush attack in the heat Week 1 is a competitive disadvantage and Miami's smaller LBs could get worn down over the course of the game.
On the other side of the ball, the disadvantages the Dolphins dealt with in 2017 are hopefully a distant memory. Remember, they didn't even get to play a Week 1 home game (postponed due to hurricane) and their starting QB, Jay Cutler, was operating like a mercenary for a quick one-year cash-grab for $10 million. The return of Ryan Tannehill should be a welcome sight.
Playing in Miami in the first three weeks of the season is a big disadvantage due to the heat. The Dolphins are even better when facing non-divisional opponents less familiar with the heat -- and even better still when the game is a 1 p.m. kickoff.
Lean: Miami +1
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent Minnesota
Sharp's take: The 49ers were the talk of the NFL world to close last season. Winning five straight games is never easy, but they rattled off those wins against a bad Bears team with a rookie QB, a bad Texans team with a backup QB, a Rams team resting starters in Week 17 and a 25-23 toss-up game against the Texans in Week 15. The lone game that was truly impressive was a 44-33 win over the Jaguars at home, but even this game was tied at the half. The biggest new acquisition was RB Jerick McKinnon. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said as soon as he got McKinnon in free agency, he started scheming up ways to use his new weapon in this game against the Vikings. And now that they are without McKinnon, it will be a big adjustment to look to use his backups.
The Vikings made a number of personnel upgrades in the offseason. Theoretically they upgraded at quarterback, although that all depends on how Kirk Cousins plays, as Case Keenum played extremely well in 2017.
The most glaring difference in this game is the caliber of defenses. The Vikings were the No. 2 defense in 2017 and upgraded this offseason. The 49ers made a number of moves, but I don't know how strong CB Richard Sherman will be to start the season and I see him getting burned by WR Stefon Diggs often. Remember, Minnesota has a great home-field advantage and was 6-2 ATS at US Bank Stadium last season.
Lean: Vikings -6.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 50/50
Sharp's take: These two teams met in Week 3 last season and it was a close game throughout. The Texans' defense was still healthy (they had their cluster of injuries later in the season) and the Patriots were unable to run the ball. New England averaged just 3.0 yards per carry and resorted to going 64 percent pass on early downs (67 percent passes overall) as a result. Not that putting the ball in Tom Brady's hands more often is ever a bad decision, but this year he doesn't have the weapons at receiver like he did in the past.
Brady's early down targets went to Brandin Cooks (6), Chris Hogan (5), Rob Gronkowski (5), Danny Amendola (3) and Dion Lewis (3). Three of those five players are not on the team. If the Texans' run defense can slow down the run game, the Patriots' passing offense right now is not as talented as it was in 2017.
In that game last year, Hopkins led the Texans in targets and receptions (7-of-8 for 9.5 YPA and a 75 percent success rate) but opposite from Hopkins, the Texans started Braxton Miller (caught only 1 of 4 targets) and their second-leading receiver was TE Ryan Griffin. The Texans' receiving corps now has the services of Will Fuller (who didn't play in the last game against the Patriots). Last year, Watson to Fuller delivered 12.7 YPA and 7 TDs in four games.
My biggest concern is Houston's offensive line, which is a mess. Watson was pressured on a league-high 48 percent of his dropbacks last season (for perspective, Brees faced pressure just 23 percent of the time), but was incredible at avoiding pressure, taking sacks on only 17 percent of his pressured dropbacks. He'll need to stay upright for Houston to cover.
Lean: Houston +6.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent New Orleans
Sharp's take: Without QB Jameis Winston (suspension) to help outduel Drew Brees, this matchup looks tailor-made for Brees to have a big day against the Bucs' secondary. Tampa Bay's 2017 defense ranked No. 31 against the pass and had the NFL's worst pass rush. Brees didn't pass the ball as often in 2017, so his total production was down, but efficiency-wise, it was a career year: His 8.1 yards per attempt was his highest since 2011, his 72 percent completion rate was a career best (and set the NFL record) and his 103.9 passer rating was his best since 2013.
The Saints return a healthier offensive line and more offensive weaponry than they had in 2017, with the addition of No. 3 WR Cameron Meredith and TE Ben Watson to pair with WRs Michael Thomas and Ted Ginn. Without RB Mark Ingram to start the year (four-game suspension), the Saints can lean more on Alvin Kamara, but I don't anticipate them weighting down their smaller-framed RB with too much of a work load on the ground.
On the other side of the ball, the Saints have a good defense that should only get better with DE Marcus Davenport and multiple free-agent pieces in the secondary. While Mike Evans is a star WR, his productivity will likely be negated by the fact he is being targeted by Fitzpatrick and covered by CB Marshon Lattimore, who held Evans to 68 yards on 19 targets (3.6 YPA) in 2017.
The Saints should win and pull away by the second half, but as we saw with the first game of the season, often there are timing and production issues when players don't play as often in the preseason. And Brees didn't play much.
Pick: Pass
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent New York
Sharp's take: The Jaguars were the best defense in 2017 based on my EDSR metric and should be just as good in 2018. The key to this game will be the run defenses on both sides. Neither was very good last year, with both ranking No. 25 or worse. The biggest difference will be RB Saquon Barkley's ability to stay productive behind an improved left side of the Giants' offensive line, which could help anchor Eli Manning and provide a confidence boost to an improved passing game.
The Giants finished last season as the NFL's second-most injured WR corps and they are all healthy to start the season. They also have the benefit of new head coach and playcaller Pat Shurmur. Unlike his predecessor, Shurmur gets much more creative with personnel groupings, and often rolls out 12 personnel, which should be exceedingly well suited for the 2018 Giants. Such a grouping allows for two tight-ends, two-wide receivers and a running back, allowing for many different protection combinations and the ability to keep the Jaguars' defense guessing.
While the Giants' passing game is all-systems go, the Jaguars' is not in nearly as good shape. Gone are multiple starters, via free agency or injury. I'm much higher on Keelan Cole than consensus, but Dede Westbrook also provides upside when healthy. But apart from those two, I don't like the matchups for the Jacksonville passing offense. This game likely comes down to who converts best inside the red zone.
Lean: Giants +3
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent Baltimore
Sharp's take: The Bills are rolling with Nathan Peterman at QB, but their issues stretch well beyond who they will use to replace Tyrod Taylor. Playing on the road in Baltimore, I think it will be very hard for Peterman (who threw five interceptions in his last action) to avoid mistakes. The Bills will therefore have to rely more on their run game against the top-10 run defense of the Ravens.
In addition to the Ravens' defense, the Bills' offensive line is also weaker than it was in 2017, as they replaced their center, left tackle and left guard. The bottom line is it won't be a good matchup for the Bills' run game.
It will be a good matchup for the Ravens' run game, as RB Alex Collins gets to face the NFL's second-worst run defense from 2017 and has back the services of guards Alex Lewis and Marshal Yanda. And after getting pushed in the preseason by first-round QB Lamar Jackson, Joe Flacco has looked surprisingly good. Time will tell if it carries over to the regular season, but the Bills' secondary has the capability of being torched (Vontae Davis is a big concern in coverage) and the Ravens added WRs John Brown and Michael Crabtree.
Lean: Ravens -7.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Kansas City
Sharp's take: Even with preseason injuries, the Chargers are one of the most talented teams on both sides of the ball. The problem is, they've been talented the past few years as well -- and they can't seem to beat the Chiefs, as they are 0-8 since Andy Reid came to town to coach Kansas City.
In 2017, the Chargers couldn't even hit 14 points in either game, despite Kansas City's poor defense. The book on the Chiefs' defense is the same in 2018, but is this Los Angeles offense be more capable of exploiting it?
While the Chargers are without TE Hunter Henry, they still have a tremendous receiving corps. Wideouts Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams and Travis Benjamin give the Chargers an extremely dynamic offense, which is capable of rotating any combination of them onto the field to provide a big edge. There are questions surrounding the availability of SS Eric Berry, and the Chiefs are already without CB Marcus Peters, after dealing him to the Rams. Look for the Chargers to have more success offensively, presuming they make more intelligent play calls on first down and avoid predictability.
Los Angeles' advantages aren't limited to one side of the ball. The Chargers have a tremendous defense as well, one that is likely to attempt to test and confuse new Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. The receiving corps of the Chiefs is even more dynamic than that of the Chargers, so it will be up to Mahomes to make proper reads and usage of studs Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Pick: Pass
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Denver
Sharp's take: I can't wait to see how the maligned Seahawks look to start 2018. The defense has lost key stalwarts in the Legion of Boom secondary (Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor) and Earl Thomas held out all preseason and his status for playing a full game at 100 percent is in question. The defensive line is without Michael Bennett, Sheldon Richardson and Cliff Avril, and LB KJ Wright had knee surgery and will miss this game.
Offensively, the biggest question for the Seahawks is OC Brian Schottenheimer and what he will employ. Quoted as wanting to run even against stacked boxes, will Schottenheimer actually attempt this foolhardy plan or was he painting broad brush strokes?
Seattle's success in 2018 will come down to whether or not Russell Wilson can shoulder most of the offensive burden. The weight is on his shoulders to produce when the defense is allowing points. Since 2012, Seattle has the second-best win percentage in the NFL (66-10) when allowing less than 24 points, but are a middle of the pack 22 percent win rate (7-24) when allowing 24 or more points, including 1-8 in their past nine games.
There are questions for Denver, too, primarily surrounding how Case Keenum will look outside the dome and without the strong defense the Vikings paired him with in 2017. I'm excited to see how Emmanuel Sanders performs on Sunday afternoon, as he's likely to be a focal point for the passing attack against the weakened Seahawks secondary. And with rookie RB Royce Freeman having fresh legs to start the season, it will be interesting to see how he runs in the second half against a likely tired Seahawks defense.
Play: Emmanuel Sanders over 55.5 receiving yards
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Washington
Sharp's take: With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, many believe the Washington passing game will diminish; I'm not one of those people. I think Smith can execute the offense in an extremely capable manner and will use his legs to gain critical yardage. I am concerned, however, about newly acquired RB Adrian Peterson.
Jay Gruden called the third-most run plays on first down in the first half last season, despite them being highly inefficient and much worse than when Cousins dropped back to pass. And those plays are where Peterson is at his worst the past couple of years, where he averaged just 3.48 YPC, ranking No. 34 of 37 running backs and produced just a 39 percent success rate.
The Cardinals ranked No. 1 against the run last year while the Redskins' offense was dead last, so this should still be a big edge for the Cardinals. In addition, Arizona returns RB David Johnson to help the run game, which will face the fifth-worst rushing defense of 2017.
Being forced into a one-dimensional attack on the road is never ideal, and Arizona is a sneaky-tough place to play. Gruden is 0-4 in Week 1 games and Arizona is a very strong 29-11 at home the past five years, including 23-3 (89 percent) in games outside the division.
Pick: Arizona -1
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Carolina
Sharp's take: Both of these offensive lines are injury depleted to start the season, which is not ideal because both want to run the ball often and impose their will on the opponent. Dallas will be without C Travis Frederick and several other starters are nursing injuries. The Cowboys' run game is good enough to produce without Frederick, but it would be better served to pass the ball more often, particularly on first down.
The issue becomes the performance of the receiving corps. Gone are security blanket Jason Witten and former Pro-Bowler Dez Bryant, and in are Allen Hurns and Michael Gallup. Carolina's secondary could be exploited, but it isn't Dallas' style to go more pass heavy, and I don't envision that happening with this receiving corps.
Carolina appears poised to give Christian McCaffrey a lot of work and it's in the receiving game that he could do the most damage. Last year the Cowboys ranked No. 26 against passes to RBs and the Panthers will certainly look to target McCaffrey, but hopefully they do so on early downs where he is likely to be most productive. There could be opportunities in the run game as well, as Dallas faced the NFL's second-easiest schedule of run offenses in 2017 and still ranked just 21st against the run.
With the Panthers having a weakened offensive line due to injuries, it doesn't behoove them to make Cam Newton take many deep drops in this game until they see how the line is holding up against a strong Cowboys defensive line. I would be focusing on quicker targets to McCaffrey and Greg Olsen to start the game.
Lean: 1H under 21.5
<strike></strike>
