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Thread: Donger Needs NFL 2018

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  1. #1 Donger Needs NFL 2018 
    RX SemiGod theDonger's Avatar
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    Happy new NFL season fam! Last year I put together a little python script that does a decent job of picking underdogs. Had a bit of success toward the end of last year hitting some sick parlays -- Hope my good fortune continues. Play 'em seperately, hook 'em, or fade 'em.

    Early round:
    Cleveland +3.5
    Cincy +1.5
    Buffalo +7.5
    Tennessee +1


    Interesting anomalies:
    Script picked JAX to win by exactly 3 points
    Script picked NO to win by exactly 10 points
    Script has HOU/NE playing to a tie score of 23.2 to 23.2
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  2. #2  
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    Bills gonna keep this close. Sloppy weather and a messy game. GL Donger
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  3. #3  
    RX SemiGod theDonger's Avatar
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    Afternoon round:
    Kansas City +3
    Dallas +3
    Washington +2


    Was hoping the Bears would fit this system, as I think they keep it close to maybe win -- but ultimately a no-play.
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  4. #4  
    RX SemiGod theDonger's Avatar
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    Sunday Record: 4-3

    Could have easily gone 6-1 and I liked that I had a chance in every game except for Buffalo. In fact, i'm going to put an early ban on Buffalo since I can never quite capture whether or not they choose be a football club from week to week. I wound up hooking the afternoon games into a 3-team parlay -- really hoping for some 4th quarter magic, but oh well.

    Scripts are still finishing up, will be back with a play (if any) tonight.

    Cheers.
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  5. #5  
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    4-3 better than 3-4.

    GL tonight
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  6. #6  
    RX SemiGod theDonger's Avatar
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    Monday Night Play:
    New York +7
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  7. #7  
    RX SemiGod theDonger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by theDonger View Post
    Early round:
    Cleveland +3.5 (W)
    Cincy +1.5 (W)
    Buffalo +7.5 (L)
    Tennessee +1 (L)


    Afternoon round:
    Kansas City +3 (W)
    Dallas +3 (L)
    Washington +2 (W)


    Monday Night Play:
    New York +7 (W)

    Week 1 Result: 5-3 (62.5%)

    Need to get back to the script and import/adjust stats after this week1. Very encouraging result early on -- What I was doing last year was parlaying some or all of the early games, some or all of the late games, ... that way I'm not trying to figure out a way to hedge. Another strategy is to hook some early games + SNF and aim for a middle if the parlay is still alive by SNF.

    Again, do what you will with this info and practice good money management. Hook, fade, or follow -- BOL

    I'll be back (hopefully) with something for TNF.
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  8. #8  
    Their undisputed masterpiece is "Hip to be Square." The Falls's Avatar
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    So you are calling your picks your needs? Sounds better?

    It sounds like you are trying to sound like you are a big bookie.

    Where is your script pulling data?
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  9. #9  
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    Good job!
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  10. #10  
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    Week 1 Result: 5-3 (62.5%)

    On to week 2!! IMO this is one of those games that the script does really well with -- it just picks winners, though not ATS which is why I usually stick to playing the underdogs that are picked to win SU and sometimes I'll play faves of 2 or less points. TNF is always a bit fucky because of the short week, but I believe that favors the home team anyway. Regardless, I was happy to see the Bengals turn up as a play -- well, hope that I'm happy to see them as a play anyway haha

    Thursday Night Play:
    Bengals +1
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  11. #11  
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    Quote Originally Posted by theDonger View Post
    Thursday Night Play:
    Bengals +1 (W)
    Week 1 Result: 5-3 (62.5%)
    Week 2 Result: 1-0
    #overall: 6-3
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  12. #12  
    RX SemiGod theDonger's Avatar
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    Slim-pickins for the early games -- Makes me think a whole bunch of chalk is going to cover. I might do a teaser of some favorites to see if I can get lucky. However, my script only likes 2 underdogs in the early round to win SU.

    Afternoon Round:
    Green Bay +1
    Kansas City +4
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  13. #13  
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    Script is excellent at picking SU winner, but not so much ATS -- Teased the 3 heavy faves with the 2 dogs chosen.

    Fun teaser, not an official play:
    ATLANTA FALCONS +0.5
    KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +10
    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5
    GREEN BAY PACKERS +7
    LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -1
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  14. #14  
    RX SemiGod theDonger's Avatar
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    Late Round:
    Detroit +6
    Jacksonville +1.5
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  15. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by theDonger View Post
    Afternoon Round:
    Green Bay +1 (W)
    Kansas City +4 (W)
    Quote Originally Posted by theDonger View Post
    Late Round:
    Detroit +6 (W)
    Jacksonville +1.5 (W)
    Another week, another tie game -- another ATS winnah!!!! Got lucky with GB +1 and unlucky with my teaser. Them's the breaks!!! Hot damn though a clean sweep for the day games!!!

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  16. #16  
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    Sunday Night:
    Giants +3
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  17. #17  
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    Very well done. I guess people don't like winners . Kinda quiet.
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  18. #18  
    RX SemiGod theDonger's Avatar
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    Week 1 Result: 5-3 (62.5%)
    Week 2 Result: 4-1 (80%)
    #overall: 9-4 (69.2%)

    Banned: Buffalo Bills, NY Giants (only play against these)

    There are 2 teams that I refuse to put money on moving forward: Buffalo and the Giants of New York. In fact, I may just track what a no-look fade of these 2 teams looks like. Kinda curious.

    As for tonight -- I will run the numbers and report back if Seattle makes the cut but think I will take my 4-1 weekend and stick it in my pocket. If Seattle comes up as a play, I'll post it here before game time. I think the Bears D is faster than Russ "hamburgler" Wilson and grab a W tonight -- then again, what do I know? That's why I created this python script to look for an edge.

    BOL fam

    Cheers
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  19. #19  
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    I wonder what the odds are on Eli being benched mid-seaeon....Great job with these Donger
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  20. #20  
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    My script has Chicago winning by 8, which might seem good. It also picked the Rams win by 10, also good because they covered easily yesterday. But it also picked Denver to win by 10 yesterday.

    Again, the script is excellent at picking winners -- just not ATS. All plays here will be dogs or within a point or two. Thus far, betting on dogs ATS when the script has them winning SU has been a formula for success.

    Take it or leave it -- but I'll be rooting for the beloved Bears regardless
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  21. #21  
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    GL hope it hits
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  22. #22  
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    Monsters of the Midway are BACK!!! Fun team to watch right now and we should be 2-0 if Fuller hangs on last week.

    I'll back Thursday with something if its there -- Gonna be honest, this TNF matchup bores the piss outta me.
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  23. #23  
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    Week 3 Early Round:
    Denver +6
    New Orleans +1.5
    Tennessee +10
    Miami -2.5


    First favorite of the year and hope Miami can come through for me on this one -- I think West goes East for the early game will be a factor against Gruden's sleep Raiders.

    Also going to try a few parlays for fun
    DENVER BRONCOS +6 -125
    NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +1.5 -108
    CAROLINA PANTHERS -145
    MIAMI DOLPHINS -150
    GREEN BAY PACKERS -135
    KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -6 -105
    HOUSTON TEXANS -280
    1 parlay of 7 Teams
    Risk: $25 Win: $1100.70

    Risk: 50.00 - Win: 1042.91
    [469] Denver Broncos +6-125
    [467] New Orleans Saints +1.5 -111
    [461] TOTAL o45-118 (Indianapolis Colts vrs Philadelphia Eagles)
    [480] Kansas City Chiefs -6-107
    [474] Miami Dolphins -2.5 -127

    Risk: 100.00 - Win: 995.59
    [469] Denver Broncos +199
    [474] Miami Dolphins -2.5 -127
    [467] New Orleans Saints +105
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  24. #24  
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    Afternoon Round:
    Los Angeles +7
    Dallas pk
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  25. #25  
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    3-1 After the early games!!! N'AWLINS!!!!!!

    Edit: corrected the record
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