fading road teams on 2nd game of back to back, 2018 version

Search

New member
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
Messages
593
Tokens
To qualify the road team has to win the first game of their 2 game road trip. The home team in this 2nd game of the road trip has to actually be at home. And since the bet will be on the home team of this 2nd game, the rest period for both teams coming into this 2nd game has to be equal or in favor of the home team.

Week 2
1 qualifier (jets and rams cant qualify because they will be home next week)
Kc at Pittsburgh

take Pittsburgh -5 currently at vegasinsider
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2017
Messages
21,691
Tokens
final results last year

17-7-1 ats,,,15-10 su,,, ,,,,next year will not be fading roadteams that had more days rest than the home team,,,,if that was considered more closely this year the results would have been 17-4-1 ats,,15-7 su

Even better...... i
n case anyone didn't know......HOME DOGS this year with this system are 8-1 ATS(one of the wins was Carolina +3 against Minnesota on their 3rd game after winning first two)

That means home dogs were 8-1 ATS
Home favorites were 9-7-1 ATS
We see where the value was. But, it was just for one year.
Maybe an sdql person can figure out what it has done for 10 or more years
 

Member
Joined
Jan 22, 2007
Messages
1,281
Tokens
Tough one here. KC is way overdue to beat the Steelers. But the Steelers are real good at home and Pissed from the tie to Cleveland.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2017
Messages
21,691
Tokens
I did it really quick(so could be off I guess) for the previous 9 years with no consideration for rest. Just back to back road teams who won 1st road game or won 1st two road games playing the third and the home team is 133-135 ATS. But someone might wanna double check
 

New member
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
Messages
593
Tokens
I did it really quick(so could be off I guess) for the previous 9 years with no consideration for rest. Just back to back road teams who won 1st road game or won 1st two road games playing the third and the home team is 133-135 ATS. But someone might wanna double check
Not sure how much work that took but thx for checking..after what you stated about the home dogs specifically, it would seem that breaking up that 133-135 stat to home dogs and home favs might prove to be even more beneficial
 

Member
Joined
Sep 20, 2017
Messages
21,691
Tokens
Not sure how much work that took but thx for checking..after what you stated about the home dogs specifically, it would seem that breaking up that 133-135 stat to home dogs and home favs might prove to be even more beneficial


I'll try at some point. Someone with an sdql thing might be better off. Had to do it by hand. Which is why a double check is in order.
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Nov 25, 2006
Messages
2,826
Tokens
Anybody have the exact results?
 

New member
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
Messages
593
Tokens
Only 4 teams won on the road in week 2

only 2 of those teams play on the road week 3

colts +7 at eagles,,,,, fade colts and take eagles -7

chargers +7 at rams,,,fade chargers and take rams -7

season record:
0-1 su
0-1 ats
 

Member Emeritus
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,607
Tokens
chargers v rams. Does a 10 mile "road trip" qualify? Seems like the guts of this might be east coast teams that stay on the west coast, rather than make 2 round trips.

Thoughts? I ask, because I'm really trying to find an angle for this game. With Minn in 4 days, I'm leaning towards chargers or passing.
 

New member
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
Messages
593
Tokens
Season record:
2-1 su
1-2 ats

6 teams won on the road in week 3
Only 2 qualify

Saints at ny giants +3 even
Fade saints.take giants

Buffalo at green bay -9.5 -105
Fade buffalo..take gb
 

Biz

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Oct 29, 2011
Messages
14,580
Tokens
This system had one good year last year, and not worth playing any other year. Its random and not predictive


p:AW and AF and n:H and rest <= o:rest and season >= 2005 and ...
gamesATS
W - L- P (marg, %win)
Avg LineOU
W - L- P (marg, %over)
Avg TotalSU
W - L- P (marg, %win)
SDQL
00-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)-0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)-0-0-0 (0.00, 0.0%)season = 2018
60-5-1 (-4.17, 0.0%)-4.04-2-0 (6.17, 66.7%)42.73-3-0 (-0.17, 50.0%)season = 2017
96-3-0 (1.44, 66.7%)-4.13-6-0 (-2.28, 33.3%)46.17-2-0 (5.56, 77.8%)season = 2016
126-6-0 (5.25, 50.0%)-4.84-6-2 (-0.38, 40.0%)44.48-4-0 (10.00, 66.7%)season = 2015
74-3-0 (-2.71, 57.1%)-4.12-5-0 (-4.50, 28.6%)45.95-2-0 (1.43, 71.4%)season = 2014
64-2-0 (6.92, 66.7%)-5.44-2-0 (12.67, 66.7%)46.04-2-0 (12.33, 66.7%)season = 2013
105-5-0 (1.40, 50.0%)-4.17-3-0 (1.65, 70.0%)44.05-5-0 (5.50, 50.0%)season = 2012
95-4-0 (1.94, 55.6%)-5.36-3-0 (9.33, 66.7%)45.96-3-0 (7.22, 66.7%)season = 2011
106-4-0 (7.45, 60.0%)-4.27-3-0 (4.55, 70.0%)41.07-3-0 (11.60, 70.0%)season = 2010
85-3-0 (1.81, 62.5%)-7.33-5-0 (-1.56, 37.5%)45.96-2-0 (9.12, 75.0%)season = 2009
84-4-0 (1.75, 50.0%)-4.63-5-0 (-0.81, 37.5%)40.45-3-0 (6.38, 62.5%)season = 2008
63-2-1 (1.92, 60.0%)-7.24-2-0 (3.25, 66.7%)46.25-1-0 (9.17, 83.3%)season = 2007
74-3-0 (3.21, 57.1%)-3.53-4-0 (1.57, 42.9%)41.44-3-0 (6.71, 57.1%)season = 2006
74-2-1 (2.93, 66.7%)-5.24-3-0 (-1.93, 57.1%)38.66-1-0 (8.14, 85.7%)season = 2005

 

New member
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
Messages
593
Tokens
I must be reading something wrong..looks like it's been a winning year su every year ,depending upon the ml cost for the losing ones of course.and its looks like a push or winning year ats every year but 1 year..after last years success with the home dogs, me and others might be thinking that's where the better angle is...this years first home dog opened with the NY giants +4 and is about to go off today at +3
 

New member
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
Messages
593
Tokens
Obviously the home team wins more often than the road team..now it's just a matter of will the home team cover the spread as a favorite
Su so far this year is home team 38 wins to the road team 23= 62%

Season record :
3-2 su
2-3 ats

6 teams won on the road in week 4

Only 1 team qualifies in week 5

Baltimore at clev +3
Fade balt and take clev +3

Granted that looks like a really tough bet..sometimes the easiest looking bets aren't that easy
 

New member
Joined
Feb 27, 2009
Messages
593
Tokens
Cleveland wins their 3rd game in 2 years and gets the ats back on track

Season record:
4-2 su
3-3 ats

Week 5 only had 3 road team winners

2 of them qualify for week 6

Arizona at Vikings-10
Fade Arizona and take Vikings-10

Rams at denver +7
Fade rams and take denver +7 -120
 

New member
Joined
Nov 28, 2010
Messages
102
Tokens
Home teams have been hammering lately
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,788
Messages
13,439,010
Members
99,339
Latest member
billcunninghamhomeloans
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com