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Thread: Monday 09/10/2018 ... Comps / Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

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  1. #76  
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    Jack Brayman


    I'm on a 56-40 run with complimentary plays, after sweeping my free plays over the weekend, UNLV on Saturday night and the Seahawks on Sunday.
    My free play takes us to Kansas City and the American League Central, where I like the Royals to get it done over the bumbling Chicago White Sox.
    Both of these teams have endured treacherous seasons, and the Royals are actually in worst shape than Chicago, standings-wise. But the South Siders have lost five straight and seven of 10, thanks to a dismal pitching output by a staff that has a 5.00 ERA in that span. They've been outscored by 21 runs over their last 10 games.
    Kansas City has won six of 10, is hitting .265 in that time frame and has outscored its opponents by 16 runs. Leading the offensive charge has been Adalberto Mondesi, who has three home runs and seven RBIs while slugging .692 over his past 10 games for Kansas City.
    Let's lay the cheap price with the Royals tonight, as they topple the Sox.
    4* ROYALS
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  2. #77  
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    SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP
    Event: (479) New York Jets at (480) Detroit Lions
    Sport/League: NFL
    Date/Time: September 10, 2018 7PM EDT
    Play: New York Jets 7.0 (-113)

    The Lions should have a hard time running the ball against the Jets and this always makes it a challenge to cover a number. Without the ability to eat clock by running the ball, the opponent will get more possessions and hence more opportunities to cover. We are grabbing the big number.
    Anchoring this one is a very powerful system that makes handicapping sense.
    In week one, teams that had FEWER regular season wins than their opponent the previous season and are facing a non-divisional that did not make the playoffs are 84-46-5 ATS (64.6%) . The record of 84-46-5 has a p-value of about 1 in 2000, which means that a flip of 130 coins will result in at least 84 in about 1 of 2000 trials. From this we can conclude that a record of 84-46-5 is very unlikely to be the result random noise.

    So, in a week-one non-divisional match-up between two weak teams, take the one that had fewer wins the previous regular season. This could be the result of bettors placing too much emphasis of the results from the previous season, it could be the result of the team that had more wins not taking their non-divisional opponent seriously enough and it could be the result of the team win fewer wins having more motivation to prove themselves in their opener. The truth is probably a combination of all three.
    For the Jets, we see that they qualify for an interesting league-wide, week-one system that is perfect in the history of the database. Road teams that are a single-digit dog by more than a FG that were under 500 the previous regular season while committing more than 21 turnovers are 14-0 ATS in week one vs a team that was over 500 last season. The SDQL text is:
    A and 38 and tpS(TO)>21 and season >= 2008
    These dogs are 8-6 straight up. In last season’s lone active date, the Jaguars trounced the Texans 29-7 getting 5 points.
    We are grabbing the big number.
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  3. #78  
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    Sal Michaels

    Sep 10 '18, 10:20 PM in 7h
    NFL | Rams vs Raiders
    Play on: Raiders +5 -110
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  4. #79  
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    Mike Williams

    Sep 10 '18, 10:20 PM in 7h
    NFL | Rams vs Raiders
    Play on: Raiders +5 -105
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  5. #80  
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    Bobby Conn

    Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
    NFL | Jets vs Lions
    Play on: Jets +7½ -115
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  6. #81  
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    Jimmy Boyd

    Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
    NFL | Jets vs Lions
    Play on: Jets +7 -115

    The Lions are getting way too much respect from the books against what I think is a very underrated Jets team. Last year New York went into the season with people wondering if they would even win a game. They finished up 5-11, which I think speaks volumes to the ability of head coach Todd Bowles.
    I look for Bowles to have his team ready to go behind talented rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. There's going to be some growing pains for Darnold, but I think the Lions are a team he can have success against. Detroit is learning new schemes on the defensive side of the ball under first year head coach Matt Patricia and have a lot of ground to make up. The Lions ranked a mere 27th in the NFL last year in total defense, giving up 355.8 ypg and were also 27th against the pass (243.2 ypg).
    Detroit simply isn't as good as people think and I think it's going to take at least a couple years for Patricia to get them back to being a threat in the NFC. They were 9-7 a year ago, but only had one win against a playoff team and that was division rival Minnesota. With how good the Bears looked last night against the Packers, I don't think it's out of the question that the Lions could finish last in the NFC North. Look for the Jets to keep this game close and potentially win the game outright. Take New York!
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    Ryan Worden
    Sep 10 '18, 8:15 PM in 4h
    MLB | PIT vs STL
    Play on: UNDER 8 +105

    The Cardinals Adam Wainwright made 4 starts early in the season before the Cardinals decided to shut him down for a few months to rehab an injured elbow. With how he's looked in 6 minor league appearance not giving up a run over 17 innings he looks like he may be back to his old self. Trevor Williams has been excellent for the Pirates only giving up 4 runs in his last 9 starts. This could be a pitchers duel. Take The UNDER.
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  8. #83  
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    Info Plays

    Sep 10 '18, 8:15 PM in 4h
    MLB | White Sox vs Royals
    Play on: White Sox +117
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  9. #84  
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    Totals Guru

    Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
    MLB | MIA vs NYM
    Play on: UNDER 7 -121
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  10. #85  
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    Kenny Walker

    Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
    NFL | Jets vs Lions
    Play on: Jets +7½ -115
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    Alex Smart

    Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
    NFL | Jets vs Lions
    Play on: OVER 44½ -108

    Former USC star QB Darnold, will become the youngest Week 1 starting quarterback in NFL history (21 years, 97 days). But the kid is talented and capable of doing damage tonight vs a Lions D that still remains suspect In the preseason the Jets phenom completed 29 of 45 passes for 244 yards with two touchdowns and just one interception. Meanwhile, the Lions, will respond with a vaunted passing attack, behind the arm of Matt Stafford, who threw for 29 touchdowns and 4,446 yards last season -- his seventh straight year with at least 4,200 yards passing.
    All Monday night home -2 or more home favs have gone over 17 of the L/22 times. The Jets have gone over in 5 of their L/6 vs the NFC North. The L/4 meetings between these teams have seen a combined average of 46 ppg scored.
    The Lions have gone over 10 of the L/11 times and in the first game of the season by an average of 10.3 ppg including 7 straight times.
    Play OVER
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  12. #87  
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    Jack Jones

    Sep 10 '18, 10:05 PM in 6h
    MLB | Rangers vs Angels
    Play on: Angels -117

    Jack’s Free Pick Monday: Los Angeles Angels -117
    The Los Angeles Angels should be bigger favorites at home today over the Texas Rangers. The Angels have won four straight coming in, while the Rangers have lost four straight. And I believe the Angels have the advantage on the mound tonight.
    Jaime Barria has been one of the more underrated starters in baseball. He is 10-8 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts, pitching 11 shutout innings. Barria owns the Ranges, going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in four career starts against them.
    Mike Minor is 11-7 with a 4.31 ERA in 25 starts this season, but 5-4 with a 5.79 ERA in 11 road starts. Minor has posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in two career starts against the Angels.
    The Rangers are 0-5 in their last five road games. The Angels are 5-0 in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Los Angeles is 6-2 in Barria’s last eight starts. Bet the Angels Monday.
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  13. #88  
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    Mark Wilson

    Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
    NFL | Jets vs Lions
    Play on: Jets +7½ -115
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  14. #89  
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    Dave Price

    Sep 10 '18, 10:15 PM in 6h
    MLB | Braves vs Giants
    Play on: Braves -114
    Dave’s Monday Free Play:
    The Key: The Atlanta Braves are in the midst of a pennant race, trying to win the NL East. They have a lot more to play for right now than the San Francisco Giants, and it is showing. The Giants are 0-8 in their last 8 games overall. Their offense has been dreadful, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 11 of their last 13 games. Sean Newcomb should shut them down tonight. He has been at his best on the road this season at 7-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 14 road starts. The Braves are 6-0 Newcomb’s last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take Atlanta.
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    Scott Rickenbach

    Sep 10 '18, 7:05 PM in 3h
    MLB | Nationals vs Phillies
    Play on: Phillies -138
    Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Game #904 Monday Free Pick Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies, despite a recent slump, are still very much alive in the post-season race and they can make a big push now. Philadelphia is beginning a 9-game homestand before heading to Atlanta for a crucial showdown with the Braves. Of course for that series to truly be crucial, the Phillies need to make the most of this 9-game homestand and they have been a much better hitting team at home than on the road this season. Look for them to give some good run support to Jake Arrieta here. The Phillies have faced the Nationals Erick Fedde twice this season and they've gotten to him for 8 earned runs in 11 innings. Overall, Fedde is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA on the season as a starter. He should prove to be no match for Arrieta. The Phillies veteran right-hander has a 3.27 ERA in his 13 home starts this season and Philadelphia has won 8 of his last 12 home starts! Look for another big home win here as the Phils have a huge pitching edge in this match-up and are worth the short price at home. Free Pick PHILADELPHIA
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  16. #91  
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    John Martin

    Sep 10 '18, 8:40 PM in 5h
    MLB | Diamondbacks vs Rockies
    Play on: Rockies -134
    The Diamondbacks have really faltered here down the stretch with the pressure on. They are 2-7 in their last nine games overall. The Rockies are handling the pressure well, going 6-2 in their last eight games. Now the Rockies send red hot starter German Marquez to the mound. He is 3-1 with a 2.24 ERA and 72 strikeouts with only 13 walks and 38 hits allowed in 56 2/3 innings across his last eight starts. Opponents are hitting just .189 against him during this stretch. He is 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his past five starts at Coors Field as well. Zack Godley is 14-8 in spite of a 4.54 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 28 starts this season, and 8-4 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 15 road starts. Give me the Rockies.
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  17. #92  
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    Ross Benjamin

    Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
    NFL | Jets vs Lions
    Play on: OVER 44½ -108
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  18. #93  
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    Dustin Hawkins

    Sep 10 '18, 7:05 PM in 3h
    MLB | #Nationals vs #Phillies
    Play on: #Phillies -115
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  19. #94  
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    Mark Franco
    Sep 10 '18, 6:40 PM in 3h
    MLB | Dodgers vs Reds
    Play on: Dodgers -1½ -130

    Justin Turner was the National League Player of the Month for August and hasn’t cooled off much in September while helping the Los Angeles Dodgers pull within one-half game of first place in the NL West. Turner looks to follow his four-hit effort last time out with another strong performance when the Dodgers visit the last-place Cincinnati Reds on Monday for the opener of their three-game series.
    Turner batted .402 with six homers and 20 RBIs last month and improved to 10-for-30 since the calendar changed after recording a homer and two doubles in Sunday’s 9-6 victory over NL West-leading Colorado. Alex Wood will try to continue his strong run when he takes the mound Monday for Los Angeles, which sits one game behind St. Louis for the second wild-card spot, and Cincinnati counters with Cody Reed. The Reds have dropped five of their last seven contests after suffering a rain-delayed 7-6 setback against San Diego on Sunday.
    PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Alex Wood (8-6, 3.37 ERA) vs. Reds LH Cody Reed (0-2, 4.81)
    Wood is unbeaten in four starts and has allowed fewer than three runs in six of his last seven outings. The 27-year-old native of North Carolina defeated Texas with seven scoreless innings to end August and opened this month by allowing one run over five frames in a no-decision against the New York Mets. Gennett is 3-for-4 with a double versus Wood, who is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in five career games (four starts) against the Reds.
    Reed makes his third straight start after giving up one run over 4 2/3 innings versus Milwaukee on Aug. 30 and getting lit up for six in five frames at Pittsburgh on Tuesday. The 25-year-old Tennessean strung together four straight scoreless relief efforts before joining the rotation and owns a 3.27 ERA at home as opposed to a 6.08 mark on the road. Reed will face the Dodgers for the first time as he seeks his second career win after losing 10 of his first 11 decisions.
    Dodgers are 6-1 in Woods last 7 road starts. Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
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  20. #95  
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    Pro Computer Gambler

    Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
    NFL | Jets vs Lions
    Play on: Jets +7 -115
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  21. #96  
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    Larry Ness

    Sep 10 '18, 10:05 PM in 6h
    MLB | Rangers vs Angels
    Play on: Angels -118

    My free play is on the LA Angels at 10:05 ET. Sunday’s 1-0 win gave the Angels a three-game sweep of the Chicago White Sox and a four-game winning streak overall. However, LA fell out of playoff contention weeks ago, as the team's 71-72 record currently leaves them 15 1/2 games back of the final wild card spot. The Angels open a three-game home series tonight against the Texas Rangers, who continue a nine-game West Coast trip after losing three straight to Oakland over the weekend. Texas has lost four in a row and 10 of its last 13 to fall to 61-82 (on pace for just 69 wins in 2018).
    Lefty Mike Minor (11-7, 4.31 ERA) is making his second straight start against the Angels after allowing two runs over five innings of a 4-2 victory on Tuesday. He may be just 11-7 on the season (with an ERA of over 4.00) but he's been one of the better starters in the AL since the All-Star break, going 5-2 with a 2.88 ERA in seven starts. Minor has made just four career appearances (two starts) vs the Angels. Jaime Barria (10-8, 3.30 ERA) will take the mound for the Angels. Like Minor, Barria comes in pitching well as of late, as he's 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA over his last six starts (LA is 4-2). Barria is a rookie but will be making his fifth start against Texas this season, including his third start against them in the last three weeks.
    Minor has pitched well but he faces an equally hot starter in Barria (see above), as well as one who has gone 3-0 against Texas this season with a 0.86 ERA. Plus, the Angels come in having won four in a row and seven of 10. Play LA.
    Good luck...Larry
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  22. #97  
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    Brandon Lee

    Sep 10 '18, 8:05 PM in 4h
    MLB | Brewers vs Cubs
    Play on: Cubs -133

    10* FREE MLB PICK (Cubs -133)
    I'll take my chances here with the Cubs at home against the Brewers in Monday's series opener. Chicago will have their ace Jon Lester on the mound, who comes in with a 2.04 ERA in his last 3 starts. Even more important is how Lester has owned Milwaukee, posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 7 career starts against the Brewers. Lester is also working on extended rest due to some rainouts, as he hasn't pitched since Sept. 2nd. That's worth noting as the Cubs are a perfect 7-0 in his last 7 starts when throwing on 7 or more days of rest. Chicago is also 25-5 in his last 30 starts to open a series. With Milwaukee having closed the gap to just 2-games in the NL Central and the Cubs recently losing 2 of 3 on the road to the Brewers, I expect the very best Chicago has to offer in what figures to a playoff type atmosphere at Wrigley Field. Give me the Cubs -133!
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  23. #98  
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    Steve Janus

    Sep 10 '18, 7:10 PM in 3h
    NFL | Jets vs Lions
    Play on: UNDER 45 -110
    My money is on the UNDER in the Monday Night Football opener between the Jets and Lions. There's a lot of hype around Jets' rookie quarterback Sam Darnold, but I think the offense is going to struggle to put up a lot of points, especially on the road against what I think will be a much improved Lions defense under new head coach Matt Patricia, who won't just run a set defense, but scheme his defense to his opponent. The Lions will once again have a strong passing attack behind Bradford, but they are going to run in more under Patricia and that's going to lead to some lower-scoring games. I think both teams struggle to get going in the opener. Bet the UNDER 45!
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  24. #99  
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    Mike Lundin

    Sep 10 '18, 6:40 PM in 3h
    MLB | Dodgers vs Reds
    Play on: Dodgers -1½ -115

    #MLB FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
    The Los Angeles Dodgers look like a solid road favorite at Cincinnati Monday night. LAD left-hander Alex Wood (8-6, 3.37 ERA) is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in five career games (four starts) against the Reds who turn to 25 year old left-hander Cody Reed (0-2, 4.81 ERA). Reed gave up six runs and nine hits in five innings in Pittsburgh his last time out and Reds are 0-14 in Reed's last 14 starts.
    Dodgers are 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and they should play with plenty of determination to try and chase down Colorado who sits top of the division.
    Free pick on LA Dodgers.
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  25. #100  
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    Tony Brown

    *5 NFL free pick
    LA Rams vs. Oakland, 09/10/2018 22:20 EDT
    Point Spread: +5/-105 Oakland
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